View Full Version : Monmouth Park and American Pharoah
RacingFan1992
08-17-2015, 10:12 PM
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/93762/monmouth-working-on-1m-race-for-pharoah?source=rss
We already know American Pharoah can run in New Jersey. Why prove something we already know. If they really want to make it interesting, make their race an open handicap race to 3 years old and older and offer a bonus to try to get Honor Code to come out along with other good older horses. I know I called for a match race with AP and California Chrome but that doesn't sound appealing at all. Folks on this message board didn't take to kindly when I suggested that but I can respect their disagreement and I rescind the idea . Who knows? Monmmouth just might try to get a match race between Honor Code and American Pharoah. Don't wanna see that happen would rather have them race in a full field. Thoughts on what Monmouth is trying to do?
Forget the Travers.
Woodward> JCGC> Classic
If you are the best, beat the best.
Go out a champion.
EMD4ME
08-17-2015, 10:37 PM
Forget the Travers.
Woodward> JCGC> Classic
If you are the best, beat the best.
Go out a champion.
As I look at the actual competition in the Travers, the more I'm with you now Tom. I orginally wanted him in the Travers but now I want more. Go in the Woodward darn it.
Hate to say it, if it's not in the contract of sale, the Woodward would be an afterthought though.
andtheyreoff
08-17-2015, 10:38 PM
I think that's an incredibly bad idea.
For $1,000,000, they could increase ten stakes purses by $100k each, or add $5,000 in purse money to 200 races. But instead, they're going to throw it at another American Pharoah victory lap? Ridiculous.
Hopefully the Zayats won't go, and Monmouth can work on improving their betting product.
EMD4ME
08-17-2015, 10:40 PM
Monmouth in September is not the same as Monmouth in early August. It just doesn't feel right.
RacingFan1992
08-17-2015, 10:45 PM
As I look at the actual competition in the Travers, the more I'm with you now Tom. I orginally wanted him in the Travers but now I want more. Go in the Woodward darn it.
Hate to say it, if it's not in the contract of sale, the Woodward would be an afterthought though.
Would like to see Honor Code try for the Whitney > Woodward > and JCGC Trifecta and go for the superfecta with a win the Classic. I think these two need to face each other at some point. Sure the Travers has historical meaning but we already saw what he can do against his own crop.
EMD4ME
08-17-2015, 11:15 PM
Would like to see Honor Code try for the Whitney > Woodward > and JCGC Trifecta and go for the superfecta with a win the Classic. I think these two need to face each other at some point. Sure the Travers has historical meaning but we already saw what he can do against his own crop.
Only bad can come in the Travers. He wins, big deal, he was supposed to. What if he draws inside in a 12 horse field, gets trapped most of the way and loses?
Not good.
Especially if the track was like today's. In my eyes a total dead rail.
Honor Code could have a shot in the BCC if a lot of things fall his way. Need a lot of speed horses in the race, a lot of stalkers with punch as well and luck.
I just don't know if that will happen. Need to see who lines up and with what posts.
AP can lose, in my opinion but he will need A LOT to work against him to lose. (Liam's Map type of performance on the lead, with another Liam's Map to AP's outside pushing AP into an early move (jockey error) and then an Honor Code to come pick up pieces.
It would take a lot to beat this bear. Impossible, no. Likely, no.
I think Monmouth is a terrible idea, as who will he face? What will he prove? Is it in the Contract of sale? (ungraded win, unknown race etc.)
If he runs in the Travers, I'd love to see him go in the JCGC.
Woodward, JCGC would be even better.
RacingFan1992
08-17-2015, 11:37 PM
The race at Monmouth will be another Arlington Invitational with Secretariat. Who did Secretariat beat other than horses he already raced and one other low level horse. Time for open company. Race him in the Pacific Classic against Beholder. That would be thrilling.
SuperPickle
08-18-2015, 01:02 AM
This is just silly.
Here's why you don't do it...
There's nothing in it for the horse. He could win by a pole in track record time and it wouldn't change his legacy. If he lost a made up race it would destroy it.
There's nothing in it for the Owners. We're talking about a horse valued at $100-200 million. A winners share of less than million in races that does nothing legacy wise.
There's little in it for Monmouth. This will not be the Haskell in size and scope.
AND most importantly it won't be on National TV. Late September? Only Fox and NBC would even consider it and they most likely have commitments between CFB, NFL and baseball. Even if they tossed it on NBC Sportsnet or Fox Sports One or Two no one would watch it. It would get lost in the shuffle. Late September/October weekends are the most competitive time for TV sports.
Stillriledup
08-18-2015, 01:18 AM
The race would have to be an invitational which means nobody who could really run and no early speed types, if you are a one move closer, you get invited.
RacingFan1992
08-18-2015, 01:26 AM
The race would have to be an invitational which means nobody who could really run and no early speed types, if you are a one move closer, you get invited.
Pretty much. Why throw in a bunch of speed horses like Bayern and Liam's Map who could soften him up for a hard driving closer when you can have horses in there who will let American Pharoah go to the lead on a soft pace and they will never catch him.
ultracapper
08-18-2015, 01:59 AM
Only bad can come in the Travers. He wins, big deal, he was supposed to. What if he draws inside in a 12 horse field, gets trapped most of the way and loses?
Not good.
Especially if the track was like today's. In my eyes a total dead rail.
Honor Code could have a shot in the BCC if a lot of things fall his way. Need a lot of speed horses in the race, a lot of stalkers with punch as well and luck.
I just don't know if that will happen. Need to see who lines up and with what posts.
AP can lose, in my opinion but he will need A LOT to work against him to lose. (Liam's Map type of performance on the lead, with another Liam's Map to AP's outside pushing AP into an early move (jockey error) and then an Honor Code to come pick up pieces.
It would take a lot to beat this bear. Impossible, no. Likely, no.
I think Monmouth is a terrible idea, as who will he face? What will he prove? Is it in the Contract of sale? (ungraded win, unknown race etc.)
If he runs in the Travers, I'd love to see him go in the JCGC.
Woodward, JCGC would be even better.
Funny you mention "Jockey Error" and "Early Move". Up until about 3 years ago, Espinoza was notorious for moving too early entering the far turn. He just couldn't get it right for a number of years. It was becoming a real problem for him, not leaving enough for the final 1/16th and getting nailed. He's straightened it out in the past few years, but it was a real problem for him for awhile. You could actually handicap it in. "Espinoza has this horse, he'll do this at the 3/8ths, and this one will nail him late". It was real easy there for awhile.
Fager Fan
08-18-2015, 08:30 AM
Where does some of this stuff come from? He's worth between $100m and $200m? You have to really push to make him worth $100m with a formula of $250k stud fee X 400. More realistic is $200k X 350 or $70m and that's still being hopeful.
As to the argument, his value has zero to do with the decision where to run him as Zayat owns zero percent of him as a stallion. He simply wants what brings him the most race money and glory.
thespaah
08-18-2015, 10:30 AM
Life is all about taking risks. Facing challenges.
This idea of "what's in it for the horse/connections" is IMO a lot of hooey..
If we lived through that entrapment of "what if", we'd be kicked out of the Universe for being boring.
Who cares if the horse does not win the Travers. Even if he does, and wins by a slim margin, there will be those who will pick that decision apart because they need to have something to fill column space. The message boards will be full of negative Nancy's who will gleefully "see I told ya so. They wore out the horse and now he can't win the Classic". Hogwash.
I see many posters making comments longing for the good old days when the best faced the best no matter what. It was based on "my horse can beat the crap out of your horse"....And "oh yeah?"."YEAH"...Good bring it on".Some of those very same posters are saying they don't think the Travers is worth....wait for it.....The risk. Ya can't have it both ways...
The Travers is......The Travers. It's where the horse should go next. Period. Done. End of story.
Where does some of this stuff come from? He's worth between $100m and $200m? You have to really push to make him worth $100m with a formula of $250k stud fee X 400. More realistic is $200k X 350 or $70m and that's still being hopeful.
As to the argument, his value has zero to do with the decision where to run him as Zayat owns zero percent of him as a stallion. He simply wants what brings him the most race money and glory.
Isn't that for one year? "Worth" would be for the career, wouldn't it?
Fager Fan
08-18-2015, 11:16 AM
Isn't that for one year? "Worth" would be for the career, wouldn't it?
He won't get 400 (or 350) paying mare owners in one year. The rule of thumb is th take the stud fee multiplied by the number of paying mare owners one could expect in two to two-and-a-half years to reach a valuation. That number is usually 300-350, adjusted up or down for popularity (usually down). Stallion farms want to be out on the stallion going into years 3 and 4 when it's tougher to get mares.
Its a different scenario than how much the horse could possibly make for Coolmoore. They will surely squeeze as much out as they can by having him pull SH duty, but he will be in the same boat as every stallion and will rise or fall going into years 3 and 4 based on the way the foals look and sell, and then race.
SuperPickle
08-18-2015, 01:25 PM
Where does some of this stuff come from? He's worth between $100m and $200m? You have to really push to make him worth $100m with a formula of $250k stud fee X 400. More realistic is $200k X 350 or $70m and that's still being hopeful.
As to the argument, his value has zero to do with the decision where to run him as Zayat owns zero percent of him as a stallion. He simply wants what brings him the most race money and glory.
So I don't think anything you wrote above is really accurate.
First Tapit is currently valued at $140 million...
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/bloodstock/sale-of-tapit-share-values-stallion-at-140-million/
Second AP's stud fee is being rumor to be $150-200K. So using Tapit's value of $140 million on a $300k fee as a baseline and taking into account he's much younger than Tapit the horse is easily worth $75 to $125 million today. That could go up or down off early crops but he's essentially worth around 9 figures today.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/92561/odds-set-on-pharoah-stud-fee-next-race
Third, Zayat retains fulling racing control of the horse. However he retains a nice piece of him as a stud just like he did PON. Also while he has theoretical control of the horse till he goes to stud Coolmore did a deal in which he gets seven figure bonuses for the races they want to win such as the Travers and Classic. So while Zayat gets to say he's calling the shots Coolmore kind of is. The bonuses they have in the deal represent more money than any track can come up with in purse and appearance fees. So while Zayat can go rogue he gets the most $$$$ by doing what Coolmore wants.
http://www.kentucky.com/2015/05/20/3860769/coolmore-buys-stallion-rights.html
Fager Fan
08-18-2015, 01:39 PM
So I don't think anything you wrote above is really accurate.
First Tapit is currently valued at $140 million...
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/bloodstock/sale-of-tapit-share-values-stallion-at-140-million/
Second AP's stud fee is being rumor to be $150-200K. So using Tapit's value of $140 million on a $300k fee as a baseline and taking into account he's much younger than Tapit the horse is easily worth $75 to $125 million today. That could go up or down off early crops but he's essentially worth around 9 figures today.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/92561/odds-set-on-pharoah-stud-fee-next-race
Third, Zayat retains fulling racing control of the horse. However he retains a nice piece of him as a stud just like he did PON. Also while he has theoretical control of the horse till he goes to stud Coolmore did a deal in which he gets seven figure bonuses for the races they want to win such as the Travers and Classic. So while Zayat gets to say he's calling the shots Coolmore kind of is. The bonuses they have in the deal represent more money than any track can come up with in purse and appearance fees. So while Zayat can go rogue he gets the most $$$$ by doing what Coolmore wants.
http://www.kentucky.com/2015/05/20/3860769/coolmore-buys-stallion-rights.html
Read my post above. That's not how you value a new stallion prospect. Tapit is a proven stallion and has no possibility of becoming a failed stallion in a short few years' time. But I appreciate that you've now lowered your valuation by $75m.
Zayat sold off 100% of the stallion. All that article is talking about is the handful of breeding rights that the owner usually negotiates on behalf of himself and the trainer and possibly others.
Also, without knowing the specifics of the contract, the horse likely capped out with whatever bonus he earned for winning the Triple Crown.
RacingFan1992
08-18-2015, 01:42 PM
What are the odds AP is a flop as a stud? I read one article saying Honor Code would possibly be a better stud prospect because he has speed over a long distance. Idk.
Fager Fan
08-18-2015, 01:45 PM
What are the odds AP is a flop as a stud? I read one article saying Honor Code would possibly be a better stud prospect because he has speed over a long distance. Idk.
The odds are about 5-10% that a horse retiring to stud in Kentucky will make it as a stallion. Obviously a stallion prospect which gets better mares will have a better shot at making it, so maybe 15-20% likelihood?
I like Honor Code's pedigree much better but I don't like that he's a deep closer, those kinds don't usually do well at stud.
SuperPickle
08-18-2015, 01:50 PM
Read my post above. That's not how you value a new stallion prospect. Tapit is a proven stallion and has no possibility of becoming a failed stallion in a short few years' time. But I appreciate that you've now lowered your valuation by $75m.
Zayat sold off 100% of the stallion. All that article is talking about is the handful of breeding rights that the owner usually negotiates on behalf of himself and the trainer and possibly others.
Also, without knowing the specifics of the contract, the horse likely capped out with whatever bonus he earned for winning the Triple Crown.
Zayat insinuates in this article he's in for at least 25%. He's always retain a decent piece
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/bloodstock/zayat-sells-breeding-rights-in-american-pharoah/
Also look at the chart. If Big Brown went for $50 million there's no way AP went for less than $75 million. Even the most conservative estimate puts this horse at least $75 million.
Fager Fan
08-18-2015, 02:11 PM
Zayat insinuates in this article he's in for at least 25%. He's always retain a decent piece
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/bloodstock/zayat-sells-breeding-rights-in-american-pharoah/
Also look at the chart. If Big Brown went for $50 million there's no way AP went for less than $75 million. Even the most conservative estimate puts this horse at least $75 million.
I wouldn't believe what comes out of Zayat's mouth. He had to sell the stallion (and its dam and other bloodstock) to pay off his creditors.
$75 million isn't close to the $200 million in your post. I'd also point out that all three of those stallions who were rumored to have been sold for $50+ million failed at stud. In other words, ouch. It doesn't really matter though because the horse isn't being sold. He was already sold for somewhere around $13 million. Valuation now only matters if someone with ownership in the horse is trying to get insurance and they'll have to have some method or means for a sensible valuation. My understanding though is that Coolmore self-insures.
SuperPickle
08-18-2015, 02:31 PM
What are the odds AP is a flop as a stud? I read one article saying Honor Code would possibly be a better stud prospect because he has speed over a long distance. Idk.
In AP's case... slim.
And here's why...
1. TC winners have huge cache. Affirmed was consider a bad stud but he was even still standing for $30,000 as late as 2001.
2. Coolmore will divest themselves of part of him early on. They'll sell seasons to other breeders. Between that and the high early stud fees those guys will probably get 25-50% of their money back before you see a horse sired by AP race.
3. Coolmore is good. They'll market him well. Tabor and the gang will send their good mares to him and support him. Getting good mares makes a big difference.
In the end if you take death off the table and assume at least a 15 year stallion career Coolmore is risking 5-15 million with the ultimate upside being 9 figures. They're betting around $5-15 million to try and win $100 or $200 million.
Grits
08-18-2015, 02:43 PM
Coolmore is good. Too, some of us recall well when Coolmore paid an unheard of amount for this one that wasn't so good in the breeding shed.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/277/coolmore-lands-fusaichi-pegasus
With TC winners, one has to keep in mind, the cache may be huge but the sampling size of available data is quite small.
Fager Fan
08-18-2015, 06:05 PM
Which side are you arguing - that he has a slim chance or a good chance? You say both.
In AP's case... slim.
And here's why...
1. TC winners have huge cache. Affirmed was consider a bad stud but he was even still standing for $30,000 as late as 2001.
2. Coolmore will divest themselves of part of him early on. They'll sell seasons to other breeders. Between that and the high early stud fees those guys will probably get 25-50% of their money back before you see a horse sired by AP race.
They'll never sell part of him, and they'll have 100% of their money back before his first offspring races. All they have to have are 130 paying mare owners at $100k a pop from the first two crops to have all their money back. No offense, but math doesn't seem to be your strong suit.
3. Coolmore is good. They'll market him well. Tabor and the gang will send their good mares to him and support him. Getting good mares makes a big difference.
Here's where you seem mixed up on which side you're arguing.
In the end if you take death off the table and assume at least a 15 year stallion career Coolmore is risking 5-15 million with the ultimate upside being 9 figures. They're betting around $5-15 million to try and win $100 or $200 million.
Yes, we all know this. That's what they all do, just with different figures.
mostpost
08-18-2015, 07:53 PM
Forget the Travers.
Woodward> JCGC> Classic
If you are the best, beat the best.
Go out a champion.
Why not Travers> JCGC> Classic? Why not attempt a feat which only one horse has accomplished in history, and none in 74 years? That would be winning the Triple Crown and the Travers Stakes. Only Whirlaway has accomplished that feat.
And who is American Pharoah going to face in the Woodward that he isn't going to face in the JCGC or the Classic? More importantly, who is he going to face in the Woodward that he isn't going to beat in the JCGC or the Classic?
I wouldn't believe what comes out of Zayat's mouth. He had to sell the stallion (and its dam and other bloodstock) to pay off his creditors.
That makes him a liar??
Why not Travers> JCGC> Classic? Why not attempt a feat which only one horse has accomplished in history, and none in 74 years? That would be winning the Triple Crown and the Travers Stakes. Only Whirlaway has accomplished that feat.
Your argument certainly has merit.
But what will wining the Soup Can, er, the Travers prove?
Champions beat the best, not the left overs of a group he has already decimated.
I will tell Zayat the very thing, if he ever returns my calls! :rolleyes:
RacingFan1992
08-18-2015, 09:14 PM
Part of me is thinking why does the Classic have to be so far off? Alot can happen in 74 days. There doesn't seem like a lot of horses left who can beat American Pharoah. Whose left? California Chrome is out, Shared Belief is out, Honor Code probably won't go at him until the Classic, and Beholder who is destined for the Pacific Classic. I would mind seeing that matchup. They wouldn't have to ship him cross country.
SuperPickle
08-18-2015, 10:24 PM
Which side are you arguing - that he has a slim chance or a good chance? You say both.
They'll never sell part of him, and they'll have 100% of their money back before his first offspring races. All they have to have are 130 paying mare owners at $100k a pop from the first two crops to have all their money back. No offense, but math doesn't seem to be your strong suit.
Here's where you seem mixed up on which side you're arguing.
Yes, we all know this. That's what they all do, just with different figures.
My math is fine. I'm not buying into your arguement Coolmore paid $13 million for him.
Coolmore sells seasons to their horses. The Jerry Jam lawsuit was all about him stiffing them and him accusing them of marking them up.
We both know the season game is complex game of third card monty. There's all sorts of buyback provisions and right of refusals in those deals. But the bottom line is if you're right guy you'll be able to buy a season in AP. You and I can't but certain people/partnerships can.
I'm not arguing any sides. My point is it's hard for these guys to lose money. It's why richest stay the richest.
NY BRED
08-18-2015, 11:08 PM
I'VE BEEN RANTING FOR SEVERAL WEEKS REGARDING THE BS BETWEEN
ZAYAT WHO WOULD "LIKE "TO RUN IN THE TRAVERS" WITH BAFFERT
TAKING THE MODERATE/OPPOSITE APPROACH HAS LITTLE TO DO ABOUT IF
AP SHOULD RUN, BUT RATHER A TACTIC TO JUMP THE TRAVERS
PURSE PAST THE 1,600,000 OFFERED BY NYRA SHOULD AP APPEAR,
AND/OR ENTICING ANOTHER TRACK TO OFFER A RESONABLE SEVEN DIGIT
SUM CLOSER TO HOME, IE, DELMAR.
THE INSANITY OF WATING FOR A DECISION AND FOR THE HYPE
GOING ON AT SARATOGA THAT AP IS SHOWING UP SHOULD HAVE STOPPED AT LEAST 2 WEEKS AGO , AS IT APPEARS EVIDENT , AT LEAST TO
ME, THAT BAFFERT'S TRAINING STYLE IS UNLIIKE "DWAYNE OFF THE PLANE"
AT THE END OF THE DAY,THE BREEDERS CUP IS THE FINAL TARGET
RACE FOR ASHFORD AND ZAYAT., AND WINNING OR LOSING A RACE
PRIOR TO THE BREEDERS CUP WILL HAVE ZERO AFFECT ON AP'S
VALUE AS A SIRE.
SO, MY HOPE IS ,AS STATED SEVERAL WEEKS AGO, TO END THE DRAMA.
Fager Fan
08-18-2015, 11:44 PM
My math is fine. I'm not buying into your arguement Coolmore paid $13 million for him.
Well, they did (approximately). It's well known in Lexington but has also been reported.
Coolmore sells seasons to their horses. The Jerry Jam lawsuit was all about him stiffing them and him accusing them of marking them up.
Of corse they sell seasons. Every farm sells seasons to every stallion at their farm. Do you know what a season is? It's a contract to breed a mare to a stallion for that one breeding season. You seem to be confusing it with shares.
We both know the season game is complex game of third card monty. There's all sorts of buyback provisions and right of refusals in those deals. But the bottom line is if you're right guy you'll be able to buy a season in AP. You and I can't but certain people/partnerships can.
Shares, not seasons, and no it's not that complicated. If a stallion is going to be syndicated then the farm talks to the clients who could afford a share about buying in. There isn't a chance in hell that Coolmoore will syndicate the stallion - they don't need to. He's already paid for - cheaply - and can keep 100% of the profits. Not a chance.
I'm not arguing any sides. My point is it's hard for these guys to lose money. It's why richest stay the richest.
There's nothing to argue there. Coolmoore made out like a bandit and will more than recoup their cost in the first season. Good for them. It'll make up for the $50+ million they lost on Fusaichi Pegasus and numerous othe stallions.
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