Top Horse Analytics: 08/17/2015 SAR Picks/Results

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after late changes have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- with THA payoffs (wins, verticals, horizontals) highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: DMR, GP, SAR
THA Suspended Tracks: BEL, CD, KEE
THA Inactive Tracks: AQU-I, AQU-O, GPW, OP, SA, TAM

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.15.08.08a)

Race Cancellations (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Today's Scratches And Changes (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)

Race Results
Equibase Charts (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
THA Race Results (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

08/17/15, SAR, Race 1, 1.00 ET
2 1/16M [Turf] 3.36.01 ALLOWANCE. Purse $65,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Tubal [2-1] Sloan C A / Tobin Kevin TC
097.6924 :5: Plated [3-1] McDermott S / Day James M. E
097.5913 :4: (F)Andi'amu (FR) [4-1] Young P / Young Leslie F. J
095.7837 :2: Street Fight [5-1] McCarthy W / Kingsley. Jr. Archibal SWL
090.6108 3 Verne [12-1] Geraghty R / Wyatt Todd J. F
088.9830 6 Ginobi [15-1] Watts M / Napravnik Jasmine
*Scratch* 7 Dye Fore [6-1] Doyle J / Fisher Jack O.

08/17/15, SAR, Race 2, 1.33 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.02 CLAIMING. Purse $32,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 5 Races (2-6), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1a: Bellamy Brew [9/5] Saez L / Jacobson David SFL
099.9308 :1: This Hard Land [9/5] Velasquez C H / Jacobson David TEC
096.7392 :3: My Adonis [5-1] Ortiz J L / Rice Linda
096.5036 :6: Collin's Smile [5/2] Bridgmohan S / Brown Bruce R.
096.0340 4 First Bid [4-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R. J
093.3287 5 I Want You to Know [15-1] Hernandez R M / Contessa Gary C. W
*Scratch* 2 Energetico [6-1] Cancel E / Contessa Gary C.

08/17/15, SAR, Race 3, 2.06 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.03 CLAIMING. Purse $51,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (3-6), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Sweetpollypurebrd [2-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R. JSEC
096.1632 :8: Bossy [5/2] Velazquez J R / Catalano Wayne M. TW
093.2167 :3: Privately Speaking [5-1] Cancel E / Rice Linda FL
091.8740 :1a: Skye Saratoga [6-1] Castellano J / Albertrani Thomas
091.2019 5 Saratoga Karaoke [8-1] Ortiz J L / Domino Carl J.
091.1924 4 Dulcify [10-1] Arroyo A S / Klesaris Steve
091.0642 6 Live Love Laugh [15-1] Franco M / Domino Carl J.
*Scratch* 7 Saharan Serenade [5-1] Cancel E / Toscano. Jr. John T.
*Scratch* 1 Moondance Joy [6-1] Saez L / Albertrani Thomas

08/17/15, SAR, Race 4, 2.39 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $37,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Ferzetti [6-1] Castellano J / Contessa Gary C. JSWC
099.1971 :9: Kisses for Romeo [2-1] Ortiz J L / Schettino Dominick E
097.9017 :1: Dia de Encanta [5/2] Cancel E / Brown Bruce R. F
096.4367 :6: Okay Momma [15-1] Hernandez R M / Contessa Gary C.
095.9722 4 Myself [5-1] Lanerie C J / Walsh Brendan P.
095.6218 2 Shopaholic [8-1] Bridgmohan S / Cox Brad H. T
093.6782 8 Birkenhead [10-1] Franco M / Donk David G.
091.1209 3 Gregg's Beauty [20-1] Sullivan C / Sciacca Gary L
*Scratch* 7 Youreadaisyifyado [30-1] Silvera R / Metivier Richard

08/17/15, SAR, Race 5, 3.12 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $73,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7), Pick 6 Races (5-10) - Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :10: Stormin Stephen [3-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Clement Christophe JS
099.7106 :3: Ordinaire [5-1] Alvarado J / Jerkens James A. FELC
090.7029 :8: Giggy Smooth [15-1] Velasquez C H / Englehart Chris J. T
087.4088 :12: Fakeittilumakeit [15-1] Cancel E / Brown Bruce R.
086.9482 4 Championofthenile [2-1] Ortiz J L / Rice Linda
085.8670 7 Yummy Bear [10-1] Velazquez J R / Rice Linda
085.1209 9 Majority [8-1] Castellano J / Violette. Jr. Richard
083.4663 1 Pagan [12-1] Saez L / Schettino Dominick W
083.1077 6 Steve's Image [20-1] Cruz A / Martin Carlos F.
081.7840 5 Move Forward [20-1] Arroyo A S / Schettino Dominick
*Scratch* 2 Cannot Stop [12-1] Lezcano J / Delgado Gustavo
*Scratch* 1a Charming Indy [12-1] Castellano J / Schettino Dominick
*Scratch* 14 You Got It [5-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R.
*Scratch* 13 King Dublin [15-1] Jara F / Contessa Gary C.
*Scratch* 11 Guaranteed [20-1] Franco M / Cash Russell J.

08/17/15, SAR, Race 6, 3.45 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.00 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $78,000.
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8), Grand Slam Races (6-9) - Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Sacred Success [5/2] Velazquez J R / Gyarmati Leah SEL
098.6760 :4: Ms. Sylvia A. [5-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Jacobson David JT
098.5917 :3: Literata [6-1] Saez L / Sedlacek Roy
098.4460 :2: Scat Away [4-1] Velasquez C H / Rice Linda FC
098.3779 7 Majestic Jessica [3-1] Lezcano J / Brown Bruce R.
097.3206 1 Fenwick Hall [12-1] Bridgmohan S / Brown Bruce R.
096.9577 5 Champagne Ruby [8-1] Rice T B / Rice Linda W

08/17/15, SAR, Race 7, 4.18 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $50,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (7-10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1a: Tale Stone [5/2] Bridgmohan S / Wilkes Ian R.
099.8792 :2: Fair Advantage [5-1] Lanerie C J / Arnold. II George R. S
099.3391 :3: Rippin Ranger [10-1] Velazquez J R / Moquett Ron C
099.0892 :7: Reverend Green [7/2] Castellano J / Kenneally Eddie J
098.8006 5 Irish Cat [6-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Brown Chad C. TW
098.5804 1 Mountain Cry [5/2] Ortiz J L / Zito Nicholas P.
098.2419 4 Union River [3-1] Franco M / Dutrow Anthony W. F
096.6076 8 Apache Warrior [20-1] Saez L / Wilson Michael EL
*Scratch* 6 Banker's Boss [15-1] Lezcano J / Gullo Gary P.

08/17/15, SAR, Race 8, 4.52 ET
1 3/16M [Turf] 1.51.03 ALLOWANCE. Purse $75,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (8-10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :9: Corner Three [5/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Brown Chad C. JTFEC
095.0158 :4: Skinner Box [7/2] Ortiz J L / Violette. Jr. Richard
094.6978 :8: Smilingsundae [5-1] Castellano J / Maker Michael J. WL
092.0303 :1: Resolutely [12-1] Serpa A / Milne Joan
091.7750 5 B Rockett [4-1] Lanerie C J / Arnold. II George R. S
090.8624 7 Annie Walker [20-1] Velasquez C H / Jacobson David
089.6164 2 Forever for Always [10-1] Lezcano J / Antonucci Jena M.
088.5890 3 Light Years Away [30-1] Silvera R / Kelly Patrick J.
*Scratch* 6 Isthatallthereis [6-1] Cruz A / Tagg Barclay

08/17/15, SAR, Race 9, 5.26 ET
1 1/8M [Dirt] 1.46.03 STAKES. Purse $100,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :10: Hot Stones [3-1] Velazquez J R / Levine Bruce N. E
099.6122 :1: Carameaway [5/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Friedman Mitchell E. JSWL
097.9852 :5: Saythreehailmary's [6-1] Franco M / Morrison John FC
097.5247 :8: Star Grazing [5-1] Arroyo A S / Jerkens James A.
096.9438 3 Flipcup [8-1] Alvarado J / Mott William I.
096.9289 6 Tahoe Tigress [12-1] Ortiz J L / Englehart Jeremiah C. T
096.8789 4 Smitten by Gold [8-1] Castellano J / Ferraro Michael S.
096.3456 7 Storied Lady [20-1] Lezcano J / Hertler John O.
094.9167 2 Jcs American Dream [30-1] Saez L / Turner. Jr. William H.
*Scratch* 9 Get Gorgeous [30-1] Cancel E / Donk David G.

08/17/15, SAR, Race 10, 6.00 ET
1 1/8M [Inner Turf] 1.45.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $45,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :11: Southpaw [12-1] Alvarado J / Asmussen Steven M. E
098.9733 :8: Enuff Baby Enuff [15-1] Carmouche K / Lakeman Andrew TS
098.7086 :2: Street Fightin Man [3-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Esler Nicholas J
096.8215 :3: Sequana [6-1] Saez L / LeCesse Michael A. FC
095.2795 9 Loose Money [15-1] Lezcano J / Delgado Gustavo W
094.9325 5 Cody's Notes [20-1] Cruz A / Morrison John
094.4453 12 Ant and Bee [7/2] Castellano J / Hertler John O.
093.5062 7 Plundering [8-1] Hernandez R M / Contessa Gary C.
090.9378 4 Bapu [12-1] Velasquez C H / Kingsley. Jr. Archibal L
090.2341 6 Giantpatontheback [4-1] Jimenez S / Kelly Patrick J.
088.9004 1 Laced Moonshine [30-1] Jara F / Adsit Abigail C.
088.2032 10 Royal Afleet [30-1] Arroyo A S / DiSanto Glenn B.
*Scratch* 16 Jacob's Here [8-1] No Rider Yet / Quick Patrick J.
*Scratch* 15 River of Magic [4-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Weaver George
*Scratch* 14 Heavenly Sun [20-1] Silvera R / Feron Kathleen M.
*Scratch* 13 O'Bear [20-1] Carmouche K / Hertler John O.

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.15.08.08a)

Race Results
WPS Takeout at SAR is 16%, Breakage is $0.10

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

08/17/15, SAR, Race 1, 1:00 ET
2 1/16M [Turf] 3.36.01 ALLOWANCE. Purse $65,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Tubal [2-1] TC 4th jumped late fences 8, 9
097.6924 :5: Plated [3-1 * ] E 1st - 7.20 3.90 3.50
097.5913 :4: (F)Andi'amu (FR) [4-1] J 2nd - 4.30 3.70
095.7837 :2: Street Fight [5-1] SWL 3rd - 3.40
090.6108 3 Verne [12-1] F
088.9830 6 Ginobi [15-1]
*Scratch* 7 Dye Fore [6-1]

08/17/15, SAR, Race 2, 1:33 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.02 CLAIMING. Purse $32,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1a: Bellamy Brew [9/5 * ] SFL 1st - 2.90 2.20 2.10
099.9308 :1: This Hard Land [9/5] TEC 4th
096.7392 :3: My Adonis [5-1] 3rd - 3.00
096.5036 :6: Collin's Smile [5/2]
096.0340 4 First Bid [4-1] J 2nd - 3.40 2.40
093.3287 5 I Want You to Know [15-1] W
*Scratch* 2 Energetico [6-1]

08/17/15, SAR, Race 3, 2:06 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.03 CLAIMING. Purse $51,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Sweetpollypurebrd [2-1] JSEC 1st - 6.70 3.20 2.40
096.1632 :8: Bossy [5/2 * ] TW 2nd - 3.30 2.40 $2 Ex 22.20
093.2167 :3: Privately Speaking [5-1] FL 3rd - 2.40 $2 Tri 46.00
091.8740 :1a: Skye Saratoga [6-1]
091.2019 5 Saratoga Karaoke [8-1] 4th
091.1924 4 Dulcify [10-1]
091.0642 6 Live Love Laugh [15-1]
*Scratch* 7 Saharan Serenade [5-1]
*Scratch* 1 Moondance Joy [6-1]
$2 Double 12.60

08/17/15, SAR, Race 4, 2:39 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $37,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Ferzetti [6-1] JSWC 2nd - 4.50 2.70
099.1971 :9: Kisses for Romeo [2-1 * ] E 3rd - 2.40
097.9017 :1: Dia de Encanta [5/2] F *SCR*
096.4367 :6: Okay Momma [15-1] 4th
095.9722 4 Myself [5-1] lost footing at break
095.6218 2 Shopaholic [8-1] T 1st - 10.60 5.30 3.20
093.6782 8 Birkenhead [10-1]
091.1209 3 Gregg's Beauty [20-1] L
*Scratch* 7 Youreadaisyifyado [30-1]

08/17/15, SAR, Race 5, 3:12 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $73,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :10: Stormin Stephen [3-1 * ] JS 2nd - 3.70 2.70
099.7106 :3: Ordinaire [5-1] FELC 3rd - 3.50
090.7029 :8: Giggy Smooth [15-1] T
087.4088 :12: Fakeittilumakeit [15-1]
086.9482 4 Championofthenile [2-1]
085.8670 7 Yummy Bear [10-1] 4th steadied start, fought rider (JV fought horse)
085.1209 9 Majority [8-1]
083.4663 1 Pagan [12-1] W 1st - 20.00 7.20 6.30
083.1077 6 Steve's Image [20-1] lost rider at break
081.7840 5 Move Forward [20-1]
*Scratch* 2 Cannot Stop [12-1]
*Scratch* 1a Charming Indy [12-1]
*Scratch* 14 You Got It [5-1]
*Scratch* 13 King Dublin [15-1]
*Scratch* 11 Guaranteed [20-1]

08/17/15, SAR, Race 6, 3:45 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.00 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $78,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Sacred Success [5/2 * ] SEL 1st - 6.70 3.70 3.00
098.6760 :4: Ms. Sylvia A. [5-1] JT
098.5917 :3: Literata [6-1]
098.4460 :2: Scat Away [4-1] FC 2nd - 4.50 2.90
098.3779 7 Majestic Jessica [3-1] 4th
097.3206 1 Fenwick Hall [12-1]
096.9577 5 Champagne Ruby [8-1] W 3rd - 4.80

08/17/15, SAR, Race 7, 4:18 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $50,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1a: Tale Stone [5/2] bobbled break, bumped hard
099.8792 :2: Fair Advantage [5-1] S 2nd - 8.90 6.20
099.3391 :3: Rippin Ranger [10-1] C
099.0892 :7: Reverend Green [7/2] J 3rd - 4.00
098.8006 5 Irish Cat [6-1 * ] TW
098.5804 1 Mountain Cry [5/2] 4th
098.2419 4 Union River [3-1] F 1st - 15.40 7.30 4.50
096.6076 8 Apache Warrior [20-1] EL
*Scratch* 6 Banker's Boss [15-1]

08/17/15, SAR, Race 8, 4:52 ET
1 3/16M [Turf] 1.51.03 ALLOWANCE. Purse $75,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :9: Corner Three [5/2 * ] JTFEC 1st - 3.10 2.40 2.10
095.0158 :4: Skinner Box [7/2] 4th
094.6978 :8: Smilingsundae [5-1] WL 2nd - 5.40 3.40
092.0303 :1: Resolutely [12-1]
091.7750 5 B Rockett [4-1] S 3rd - 3.80
090.8624 7 Annie Walker [20-1] *SCR*
089.6164 2 Forever for Always [10-1]
088.5890 3 Light Years Away [30-1]
*Scratch* 6 Isthatallthereis [6-1]

08/17/15, SAR, Race 9, 5:26 ET
1 1/8M [Dirt] 1.46.03 STAKES. Purse $100,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :10: Hot Stones [3-1] E 1st - 7.10 5.00 3.70
099.6122 :1: Carameaway [5/2 * ] JSWL dueled with winner, faded to last
097.9852 :5: Saythreehailmary's [6-1] FC
097.5247 :8: Star Grazing [5-1] 2nd - 8.20 5.20
096.9438 3 Flipcup [8-1] 3rd - 5.00
096.9289 6 Tahoe Tigress [12-1] T
096.8789 4 Smitten by Gold [8-1] 4th
096.3456 7 Storied Lady [20-1]
094.9167 2 Jcs American Dream [30-1]
*Scratch* 9 Get Gorgeous [30-1]
$2 Double 12.80

08/17/15, SAR, Race 10, 6:00 ET
1 1/8M [Inner Turf] 1.45.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $45,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :11: Southpaw [12-1] E fell back abruptly at 1/2
098.9733 :8: Enuff Baby Enuff [15-1] TS
098.7086 :2: Street Fightin Man [3-1 * ] J 3rd - 4.20
096.8215 :3: Sequana [6-1] FC
095.2795 9 Loose Money [15-1] W
094.9325 5 Cody's Notes [20-1] 1st - 45.20 21.60 10.40
094.4453 12 Ant and Bee [7/2]
093.5062 7 Plundering [8-1] 2nd - 8.60 5.40
090.9378 4 Bapu [12-1] L 4th
090.2341 6 Giantpatontheback [4-1]
088.9004 1 Laced Moonshine [30-1]
088.2032 10 Royal Afleet [30-1]
*Scratch* 16 Jacob's Here [8-1]
*Scratch* 15 River of Magic [4-1]
*Scratch* 14 Heavenly Sun [20-1]
*Scratch* 13 O'Bear [20-1]