Kentucky Derby Credentials

[Que]

Since the "official" Kentucky Derby preps probably start today with the Holy Bull Stakes, I decided to revisit the past four Kentucky Derby winners and look at their development/final prep races. If you are following my Derby/Oaks Watch list or my Graded Stakes posts in the selections section, you can use these figures for comparison purposes to search for your own emerging Derby favorites. (I'll post/update my Derby/Oaks watch list following this weekends races.)

MONARCHOS

4/14/2001-Aqu10 1 1/8m (976-1010-1019-1022) (1022) 1020 2-2 3/4 Grd (2|750,000) outrun early, inside run second turn, came wide, game finish
3/10/2001-GP11 1 1/8m (984-1005-1024-1031) (1036) 1019 1-4 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) unhurried early, strong six wide move, vigorous hand ride
2/3/2001-GP10 1 1/16m (975-987-1000-1022) (1065) 1022 1-4 3/4 Alw (NW1X|35,000) chased pace, took over 1/8 pole, drew away, driving
1/13/2001-GP8 7f (975-989-na-1008) (1023) 1006 1-6 Mdn (31,000) slipped through, inside, took over turn, drew away, driving
11/24/2000-CD7 6.5f (928-952-na-981) (1016) 989 3-5 1/2 Mdn (40,300) outrun for 1/2,angled 6w into stretch, no late threat
10/7/2000-Kee4 7f (969-954-na-982) (1003) 977 8-12 1/2 Mdn (50,000) well placed for 1/2, weakened thereafter

FUSAICHI PEGASUS

4/15/2000-Aqu9 1 1/8m (990-1013-1014-1018) (1020) 1016 1-4 1/4 Grd (2|750,000) speed in hand, advanced outside, drew away, vigorous hand ride
3/19/2000-SA7 1 1/16m (996-1016-1016-1017) (1017) 1012 1-3/4 Grd (2|250,000) broke alertly, stalked, challenged 1/4, led, held determinedly
2/19/2000-SA3 1 1/16m (1004-1022-1020-1021) (1021) 1012 1-3 1/2 Alw (NW1X|54,000) stalked pace,snug hold, bit off rail, bid 2 wide,clear,ridden out
1/2/2000-SA1 6f (995-1003-na-1020) (1041) 1007 1-2 Mdn (45,000) stalked pace, off rail, bid 3 wide 1/4,led, drew off,hand ridden
12/11/1999-Hol6 6.5f (961-999-na-1007) (1007) 1008 2-Neck Mdn (33,000) saved ground, inside bid turn, led, willingly, outgamed

CHARISMATIC

4/18/1999-Kee8 1 1/16m (958-988-1005-1027) (1074) 1017 1-2 1/2 Grd (2|325,000) striking distance, 3 wide run 7/16 pl, bid 1/8, drew clear, drvng
4/3/1999-SA5 1 1/8m (983-1001-1008-1012) (1016) 1013 4-8 1/4 Grd (1|750,000) settled, 3 wide, between horses 2nd turn, improved position
3/6/1999-BM7 1 1/16m (959-989-1008-1013) (1023) 1013 2-Head Stk (200,000) allowed to settle, saved ground both turns, angled out, rallied
2/19/1999-SA6 7f (950-995-na-1004) (1007) 1015 2-5 Alw (NW1$X|50,000) unhurried, inside, angled out, 3 wide into lane, willingly late
2/11/1999-SA6 6.5f (962-993-na-997) (995) 992 2-Neck Clm (62,500|47,000) settled, off rail, 6 wide into lane, bothered 1/8, rallied
1/31/1999-SA8 1 1/16m (961-979-990-996) (1006) 1000 5-13 1/2 Grd (2|100,000) bit tight 7/8, 2 wide, dropped back, weakened

REAL QUIET

4/4/1998-SA5 1 1/8m (965-1004-1014-1027) (1050) 1026 2-2 1/4 Grd (1|750,000) allowed to settle, between horses upper stretch, gaining
3/14/1998-SA8 1 1/16m (996-988-1006-1018) (1039) 1011 2-Head Grd (2|250,000) angled in first turn, moved out 3 wide 2nd turn, gaining late
1/18/1998-GG7 1 1/16m (973-988-990-965) (907) 1000 8-22 1/2 Stk (200,000) settled between horses, failed to respond
1997 data not available.

Note. My pace figures are as follows, i.e. (976-1010-1019-1022) (1022) 1020, where 976 is the horse's pace rating to the 1/4m mark, 1010 is the horse's pace rating from the start to the 1/2m mark, 1019 is the horse's pace rating from the start to the 3/4m mark, and 1022 is the horse's pace rating for the entire race (start-to-finish). The number in parenthesis, i.e. (1022), is the horse's late speed rating--usually the last quarter mile. And the last number in black, i.e. 1020, is the horse's relative speed rating for that particular race--relative to all other entries in that race. Any positive or negative discrepancy between this figure and the horse's final figure (in bold green) indicates a strong or weak field in that particular race, respectively.

Good luck, and as always, I hope you enjoy watching this year's new crop of three year olds.

Que.

[Que]

One interesting observation from the above pace figures... look at each horse's first quarter mile numbers--of the twenty races shown, only one horse (FUSAICHI PEGASUS) had posted a number faster than 1000, i.e. 1004, for the opening quarter (and even that race you could probably excuse, since the comment line had "snug hold"). If this factor is significant, which I'm not yet convinced it is, then you could potentially eliminate alot of low-priced horses, i.e. horses who run too fast too early, from your consideration. Anyway, best of luck.

Que.

[PaceAdvantage]

Que, as always, outstanding and very generous of you to share your insights and info. I for one will be paying very close attention to all of your thoughts this year....


==PA

[Que]

The following are the losing favorites (or second choice)--if so interested, you can use these figures for comparision purposes too.


POINT GIVEN

4/7/2001-SA5 1 1/8m (1029-1016-1016-1023) (1035) 1018 1-5 1/2 Grd (1|750,000) speed,inside,stalked,bid 2 wide,led in hand,drew clear,ridden out
3/17/2001-SA7 1 1/16m (988-1001-1016-1022) (1031) 1014 1-2 1/4 Grd (2|250,000) broke inward, settled outside, 5 wide move, led, cleared, driving
12/16/2000-Hol4 1 1/16m (977-998-1006-1013) (1028) 1015 1-1 Grd (1|200,000) 4wd 7-1/2, 3 wide move,lugged in bit,led past 1/8 stdy handling
11/4/2000-CD8 1 1/16m (960-979-982-1020) (1104) 1014 2-Nose Grd (1|1,000,000) saved ground, in hand, circled foes 10w lane, closed fast
10/14/2000-Bel9 1 1/16m (1013-1030-1020-1013) (988) 1006 2-1 3/4 Grd (1|500,000) hustled up inside, contested pace on rail, stayed on gamely
9/16/2000-TP12 1 1/16m (984-1013-1007-997) (970) 995 1-3 1/2 Grd (3|100,000) broke bit in air, reserved, quick 3 wide move, bid, drew clear

THE DEPUTY (IRE) (second choice to favorite Fusaichi Pegasus)

4/8/2000-SA5 1 1/8m (1003-1017-1018-1028) (1048) 1014 1-1 Grd (1|1,000,000) pulled bit,stalked 2 wide, 3 wide bid 2nd turn,led,held gamely
3/19/2000-SA7 1 1/16m (969-998-1013-1015) (1019) 1011 2-3/4 Grd (2|250,000) moved up inside, swung out, four wide, loomed boldly, willingly
1/30/2000-SA7 1 1/16m (1021-1036-1028-1027) (1024) 1017 1-1 Grd (2|100,000) speed, dueled, inside, inched away late,steady handling
1/2/2000-SA3 1m (1023-1028-1030-1031) (1024) 1021 1-1 Stk (75,000) off bit slow,saved ground,split foes 3/8,2 wd move,rail bid lane

GENERAL CHALLENGE (coupled with Exceelent Meeting)

4/3/1999-SA5 1 1/8m (1000-1015-1019-1026) (1039) 1020 1-3 1/2 Grd (1|750,000) 3 wide first turn,pressed pace,gained command,drew clear,driving
3/14/1999-FG9 1 1/16m (939-968-999-1017) (1048) 1010 5-4 1/2 Grd (2|600,000) wide 2nd turn, bid, came up empty
1/31/1999-SA8 1 1/16m (969-986-1000-1021) (1068) 1014 1-3 Grd (2|100,000) stalked pace, 2 wide, bid 2nd turn, led, clear,steady handling
1/1/1999-SA8 7f (992-999-na-998) (987) 1002 1-2 Stk (150,000) close up, between horses, 3 wide bid, drew clear, driving
11/28/1998-Hol6 6f (960-993-na-1008) (1028) 1013 1-Nose Mdn (33,000) off bit slow, checked, wide trip, rallied, up at wire

EXCELLENT MEETING (coupled with Gerneral Challenge)

4/2/1999-OP9 1 1/16m (943-966-998-1015) (1048) 1013 1-2 1/2 Grd (2|250,000) stalked outside, moved at will to the fore, steady handling
3/14/1999-SA7 1 1/16m (963-988-1005-1014) (1032) 1014 1-Neck Grd (1|250,000) off bit slow,sent rail, quick move 3 wide,held gamely, driving
2/13/1999-SA7 1m (985-1012-1018-1023) (1028) 1017 1-4 Grd (1|200,000) rail trip, stalked pace, led near 5/16, drew clear, ridden out
12/13/1998-Hol8 1 1/16m (992-1008-1018-1021) (1027) 1013 1-8 Grd (1|200,000) settled inside, wide middle move, led 2 wide, drew off, rid. out
11/7/1998-CD5 1 1/16m (959-990-1012-1023) (1044) 1014 2-1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) reserved to far turn, moved 7wide, 1/4 pole, loomed boldly,hung
10/10/1998-SA8 1m (970-1003-1000-1001) (998) 1007 1-2 Grd (1|200,000) off bit slow, angled in, quick move 4 wide 2nd turn, clear,drivng

INDIAN CHARLIE

4/4/1998-SA5 1 1/8m (992-1022-1025-1030) (1041) 1029 1-2 1/4 Stk (750,000) tracked leader, roused 5/16, led 1/4, opened up, held, driving
3/13/1998-SA7 1m (992-993-1011-1025) (1057) 1020 1-2 1/2 Alw (NW1$X|55,200) rated off pacesetter, bid 1/4 pole, drew off, ridden out
2/22/1998-SA3 7f (981-988-na-1010) (1024) 1022 1-9 Alw (NW1$X|42,000) off step slow, pressed pace, much the best, ridden out
1997 data not available.

Que.