race track handicappers vs. stock market touts

[lamboguy]

i say stock market tout are much worse than horse racing handicappers. most of the market guys get dressed up in a $3000 suit and expensive ties.

the racing guys will tell you after the race why they screwed up most of the time and will tell you ahead of time to be careful, while the market guys talk like they know something and after they give out losers they just go looking for new suckers.

[mikesal57]

Ahhh...I see your a Cramer fan too... :D

[MPRanger]

i say stock market tout are much worse than horse racing handicappers. most of the market guys get dressed up in a $3000 suit and expensive ties.

the racing guys will tell you after the race why they screwed up most of the time and will tell you ahead of time to be careful, while the market guys talk like they know something and after they give out losers they just go looking for new suckers.



Please don't take any of what follows as me claiming to an expert on it. I have read about it. Sometimes you can do everything right and still lose.

A stocks value is always what you see on the ticker at the moment you see it. If something changes it's value a thousand sharks are just waiting to pounce therefore driving it back to equilibrium. This has been written about by famous University of Chicago professor Eugene Fama. Efficient Market Hypothesis.

The trick is to be on the right side before the value changes which is basically a 50-50 proposition. You can't beat the market by moving money around. You can only grow with it and take profits at the appropriate moment over time. If you can do that. Time must be part of the equation.

If there was a way to beat the market, the stock market wouldn't work.
Though I have read about hedge fund managers who could grind out a profit by arbitrage. I read in Fortune's Formula by William Poundstone where Edward Thorpe set up a hedge fund and used the Kelly criterion to make millions before his partners undermined the operation somehow.

Horse racing. If I ever figure that out I'll let you know.

[whodoyoulike]

...
Horse racing. If I ever figure that out I'll let you know.

Will it be immediately or after a couple years?