Top Horse Analytics: 08/10/2015 SAR Picks/Results

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after late changes have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- with THA payoffs (wins, verticals, horizontals) highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: DMR, GP, SAR
THA Suspended Tracks: BEL, CD, KEE
THA Inactive Tracks: AQU-I, AQU-O, GPW, OP, SA, TAM

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.15.08.06a)

Race Cancellations (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Today's Scratches And Changes (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)

Race Results
Equibase Charts (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
THA Race Results (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

08/10/15, SAR, Race 1, 1.00 ET
5F [Dirt] 00.56.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $73,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3), Pick 5 Races (1-5) - Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :9: Brett the Jet [10-1] Castellano J / Hertler John O. J
099.9409 :6: New York Song [3-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Violette. Jr. Richard
099.8245 :1: No Entiendo [5-1] Velasquez C H / Rodriguez Rudy R. SFELC
099.5612 :11: R F Burton [8-1] Ortiz J L / Rice Linda W
099.1788 2 Mind Your Biscuits [6-1] Rosario J / Rodriguez Roderick R.
099.1231 3 Danger Lurks [8-1] Hernandez R M / Contessa Gary C.
099.0449 5 Dublinyourmoney [7/2] Bridgmohan S / Whiting Lynn S.
098.0771 7 Bluegrass Prevails [15-1] Trujillo E / Gullo Gary P. T
096.5894 8 Cold Az Ice [20-1] Bravo J / Orseno Joseph F.
*Scratch* 4 Alexander David [8-1] Franco M / Levine Bruce N.
*Scratch* 12 D'funnything [5-1] Castellano J / Asmussen Steven M.
*Scratch* 10 Gaming [15-1] Saez L / Gullo Gary P.

08/10/15, SAR, Race 2, 1.33 ET
1 1/8M [Dirt] 1.46.03 CLAIMING. Purse $67,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Abraham [7/2] Alvarado J / Mott William I. E
099.3488 :6: Conspiracy [3-1] Castellano J / Levine Bruce N.
098.5497 :4: Finding Candy [4-1] Velazquez J R / Gargan Danny JT
097.9259 :1: Indycott [4-1] Saez L / Sharp Joe WC
097.7051 2 Prospero [8-1] Ortiz J L / Englehart Jeremiah C. FL
097.1531 7 Unstoppable U [12-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / DiPrima Gregory S
096.6863 3 Goodtimehadbyall [5-1] Rosario J / Cannizzo David A.

08/10/15, SAR, Race 3, 2.06 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.39.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $45,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Lucky Leroy Brown [7/2] Rice T B / Rice Linda SFEC
099.5079 :5: Coordinate [5/2] Alvarado J / Albertrani Thomas L
098.6667 :11: Blast Away [8-1] Velazquez J R / Dilger Michael J
097.1863 :2: Veya [4-1] Franco M / Ribaudo Robert
095.7835 4 Tiz Time to Shake [10-1] Saez L / Shivmangal Doodnauth
095.4791 6 Two Putt [15-1] Lanerie C J / Arnold. II George R.
090.3892 3 Tizacinch [20-1] Cancel E / Bush Thomas M.
090.1580 9 Self Starter [6-1] Castellano J / Maker Michael J. TW
089.3646 8 Macher [20-1] Trujillo E / Adsit Abigail C.
087.0117 7 Cross That Bridget [30-1] Arroyo A S / Antonucci Jena M.
*Scratch* 10 Vespers At Eight [15-1] Hernandez R M / Contessa Gary C.

08/10/15, SAR, Race 4, 2.39 ET
1 1/8M [Dirt] 1.46.03 ALLOWANCE. Purse $75,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6) - Pick 6 Races (4-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: One Sided [3-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Pletcher Todd A. SFLC
099.8687 :8: Tiz Time to Shine [7/2] Castellano J / Brown Chad C. EW
097.1281 :2: Bellamy Way [4-1] Rosario J / Cannizzo David A.
096.9149 :9: Repent Twice [8-1] Velazquez J R / Parisella John J
096.3047 6 Toohottoevenspeak [8-1] Cruz A / Terranova. II John P.
095.4476 10 Zabaione [12-1] Cancel E / Bond H. James
095.1120 4 April Color [15-1] Franco M / Pletcher Todd A. T
094.2780 1 Intelligence [8-1] Alvarado J / Morley Thomas
*Scratch* 5 Dr. Toole [12-1] Saez L / Ness Jamie
*Scratch* 3 Clifton Pleasure [20-1] Arroyo A S / Englehart Jeremiah C.

08/10/15, SAR, Race 5, 3.12 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1.39.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $45,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7) - Grand Slam Races (5-8), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Reach for Yield [3-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Brown Chad C. TW
096.6642 :7: Deep Consideration [4-1] Rosario J / Plesa. Jr. Edward FEC
094.8424 :4: Eye of the Moon [5-1] Velazquez J R / Matz Michael R. JS
093.2980 :12: Heady Creek [15-1] Arroyo A S / Schettino Dominick
093.0074 10 Vogner [7/2] Saez L / Lukas D. Wayne
092.7959 8 Promise and Hope [15-1] Carmouche K / Cannizzo David A.
090.5904 5 Late Night Mark (IRE) [12-1] Velasquez C H / Weaver George L
089.8261 6 Balfe's Corner [10-1] Hernandez R M / Contessa Gary C.
089.7197 11 Bold Runner [15-1] Trujillo E / Quartarolo Anthony T.
088.9429 9 Alto Sky [30-1] Jara F / O'Brien Leo
088.5486 2 Menehune [20-1] Bravo J / Orseno Joseph F.
*Scratch* 3 J C's Diamond [20-1] Cancel E / Domino Carl J.

08/10/15, SAR, Race 6, 3.45 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.39.00 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $78,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (6-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :9: Capriana [2-1] Velazquez J R / Pletcher Todd A. JTSFWC
096.3218 :4: Swear by It [5-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Brown Chad C. E
091.8956 :8: Neck of the Moon [4-1] Castellano J / Brown Chad C.
091.6313 :5: Maura's Pass [8-1] Lezcano J / Servis Jason
091.3025 11 Graceful Gal [6-1] Cancel E / O'Brien Leo
090.1900 10 Lucky Nancy E. [12-1] Carmouche K / Ryerson James T. L
089.0439 1 Amber Morning [10-1] Saez L / Toscano. Jr. John T.
088.6363 12 Devious Maddy [20-1] Rosario J / Gyarmati Leah
087.0548 7 Run to Mama [12-1] Alvarado J / Schosberg Richard E.
082.8496 3 Porvoo [50-1] Jara F / DeMola Joseph
*Scratch* 6 In Spite of Mama [3-1] Castellano J / Maker Michael J.
*Scratch* 2 Familyofroses [15-1] No Rider Yet / Falcone. Jr. Robert N.
*Scratch* 14 Perfect Freud [6-1] No Rider Yet / Sciacca Gary
*Scratch* 13 Scat Away [4-1] Velasquez C H / Rice Linda

08/10/15, SAR, Race 7, 4.18 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.00 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $78,000.
Exacta, Trifecta .(50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Royal Asset [8-1] Rosario J / Ward Wesley A. FEC
099.5564 :3: Possilicious [5-1] Carmouche K / Levine Bruce N. S
098.9973 :8: Saratoga Heater [6-1] Bravo J / Stall. Jr. Albert M. T
098.6127 :10: The Big Deluxe [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R.
098.0481 12 Mighty Zealous [9/2] Rice T B / Rice Linda
097.1123 7 Regal Minister [10-1] Velazquez J R / Hennig Mark A. JL
097.0186 6 Do I Amuse You [20-1] Bridgmohan S / Donato Robert A.
096.8214 9 Bass River Road [6-1] Cancel E / Ryerson James T.
096.7128 1a Johannesburg Smile [12-1] Velasquez C H / Jacobson David
096.0756 5 Il Vagabondo [30-1] Jara F / Green Shelly W
095.6206 4 Sol the Freud [20-1] Franco M / Cannizzo David A.
*Scratch* 11 Chasing Bubbles [20-1] Leparoux J R / McPeek Kenneth G.
*Scratch* 1 Mr. Masterpiece [12-1] Cruz A / Jacobson David

08/10/15, SAR, Race 8, 4.52 ET
1M [Inner Turf] 1.33.01 STAKES. Purse $100,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Mark My Style [5/2] Castellano J / Toscano. Jr. John T.
099.8564 :4: Payment Terms [4-1] Saez L / Gullo Gary P. TSFC
099.5125 :7: Possessed [6-1] Ortiz J L / Baker Charlton E
097.9223 :1: Amazing Anne [3-1] Alvarado J / Morley Thomas
096.2213 6 Memories of Peter [5-1] Velazquez J R / Ryerson James T. J
094.6603 3 Secured Position [15-1] Franco M / Cash Russell J. WL
093.5742 2 Ex Ex Ex [10-1] Lezcano J / Contessa Gary C.

08/10/15, SAR, Race 9, 5.26 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $45,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Aussie Prayer [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Donk David G. JS
099.9999 :4: Splendid Gold [6-1] Velasquez C H / Rice Linda FEC
098.5614 :3: Cosmic Tale [9/2] Cruz A / Baker Charlton
097.1363 :7: Jamaalaree [4-1] Ortiz J L / Toner James J. WL
092.2092 12 Northern Analyst [20-1] Silvera R / Lugovich Richard J.
089.5732 6 Misty Sunday [15-1] Carmouche K / Lakeman Andrew T
089.4212 9 Wantagh Queen [30-1] Franco M / Barker Edward R.
087.5950 2 Freuda [12-1] Arroyo A S / Antonucci Jena M.
087.4243 1 Sheepish [50-1] Sullivan C / Shevy Michael J.
086.5158 11 Sanfiera [12-1] Rosario J / Ward Wesley A.
*Scratch* 8 Glare Ice [5-1] Velazquez J R / Asmussen Steven M.
*Scratch* 16 Take a Bow [8-1] Cruz A / Terranova. II John P.
*Scratch* 15 Bye Sheila [5-1] Cancel E / Terranova. II John P.
*Scratch* 14 Honeychild [15-1] Carmouche K / Price Jerry W.
*Scratch* 13 Back to Me [30-1] Lezcano J / Dini Michael
*Scratch* 10 Bay's Nanny [12-1] Lezcano J / Martin Carlos F.

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.15.08.06a)

Race Results
WPS Takeout at SAR is 16%, Breakage is $0.10

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

08/10/15, SAR, Race 1, 1:00 ET
5F [Dirt] 00.56.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $73,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :9: Brett the Jet [10-1] J
099.9409 :6: New York Song [3-1] 3rd - 2.70
099.8245 :1: No Entiendo [5-1] SFELC 1st - 8.60 4.90 2.90
099.5612 :11: R F Burton [8-1] W
099.1788 2 Mind Your Biscuits [6-1] 2nd - 8.70 4.60
099.1231 3 Danger Lurks [8-1]
099.0449 5 Dublinyourmoney [7/2 * ] 4th
098.0771 7 Bluegrass Prevails [15-1] T
096.5894 8 Cold Az Ice [20-1]
*Scratch* 4 Alexander David [8-1]
*Scratch* 12 D'funnything [5-1]
*Scratch* 10 Gaming [15-1]

08/10/15, SAR, Race 2, 1:33 ET
1 1/8M [Dirt] 1.46.03 CLAIMING. Purse $67,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Abraham [7/2 * ] E 2nd - 3.40 2.70
099.3488 :6: Conspiracy [3-1] *SCR*
098.5497 :4: Finding Candy [4-1] JT
097.9259 :1: Indycott [4-1] WC 1st - 9.00 4.10 2.80
097.7051 2 Prospero [8-1] FL 3rd - 2.70
097.1531 7 Unstoppable U [12-1] S
096.6863 3 Goodtimehadbyall [5-1] 4th

08/10/15, SAR, Race 3, 2:06 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.39.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $45,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Lucky Leroy Brown [7/2] SFEC
099.5079 :5: Coordinate [5/2 * ] L 1st - 4.90 3.30 2.90
098.6667 :11: Blast Away [8-1] J
097.1863 :2: Veya [4-1] 4th
095.7835 4 Tiz Time to Shake [10-1] 2nd - 7.30 4.70
095.4791 6 Two Putt [15-1]
090.3892 3 Tizacinch [20-1] 3rd - 9.10
090.1580 9 Self Starter [6-1] TW *SCR*
089.3646 8 Macher [20-1] *SCR*
087.0117 7 Cross That Bridget [30-1]
*Scratch* 10 Vespers At Eight [15-1]

08/10/15, SAR, Race 4, 2:39 ET
1 1/8M [Dirt] 1.46.03 ALLOWANCE. Purse $75,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: One Sided [3-1] SFLC 1st - 7.50 4.10 3.10
099.8687 :8: Tiz Time to Shine [7/2 * ] EW
097.1281 :2: Bellamy Way [4-1] 2nd - 5.30 4.10
096.9149 :9: Repent Twice [8-1] J 4th
096.3047 6 Toohottoevenspeak [8-1]
095.4476 10 Zabaione [12-1] 3rd - 3.30
095.1120 4 April Color [15-1] T
094.2780 1 Intelligence [8-1]
*Scratch* 5 Dr. Toole [12-1]
*Scratch* 3 Clifton Pleasure [20-1]

08/10/15, SAR, Race 5, 3:12 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1.39.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $45,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Reach for Yield [3-1] TW 1st - 9.60 3.80 3.40
096.6642 :7: Deep Consideration [4-1] FEC 3rd - 2.90
094.8424 :4: Eye of the Moon [5-1] JS
093.2980 :12: Heady Creek [15-1]
093.0074 10 Vogner [7/2]
092.7959 8 Promise and Hope [15-1]
090.5904 5 Late Night Mark (IRE) [12-1 * ] L 2nd - 4.30 3.50
089.8261 6 Balfe's Corner [10-1] 4th
089.7197 11 Bold Runner [15-1]
088.9429 9 Alto Sky [30-1]
088.5486 2 Menehune [20-1]
*Scratch* 3 J C's Diamond [20-1]
$2 Double 31.40

08/10/15, SAR, Race 6, 3:45 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.39.00 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $78,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :9: Capriana [2-1 * ] JTSFWC 2nd - 2.40 2.10
096.3218 :4: Swear by It [5-1] E 3rd - 2.80
091.8956 :8: Neck of the Moon [4-1] 1st - 12.60 4.10 2.90
091.6313 :5: Maura's Pass [8-1]
091.3025 11 Graceful Gal [6-1]
090.1900 10 Lucky Nancy E. [12-1] L
089.0439 1 Amber Morning [10-1]
088.6363 12 Devious Maddy [20-1]
087.0548 7 Run to Mama [12-1] 4th
082.8496 3 Porvoo [50-1]
*Scratch* 6 In Spite of Mama [3-1]
*Scratch* 2 Familyofroses [15-1]
*Scratch* 14 Perfect Freud [6-1]
*Scratch* 13 Scat Away [4-1]

08/10/15, SAR, Race 7, 4:18 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.00 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $78,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Royal Asset [8-1] FEC 1st - 7.60 4.10 4.00
099.5564 :3: Possilicious [5-1] S 2nd - 7.40 6.40 $2 Ex 95.00
098.9973 :8: Saratoga Heater [6-1] T 3rd - 4.30 $2 Tri 644.00
098.6127 :10: The Big Deluxe [7/2 * ]
098.0481 12 Mighty Zealous [9/2] 4th
097.1123 7 Regal Minister [10-1] JL
097.0186 6 Do I Amuse You [20-1]
096.8214 9 Bass River Road [6-1]
096.7128 1a Johannesburg Smile [12-1]
096.0756 5 Il Vagabondo [30-1] W
095.6206 4 Sol the Freud [20-1]
*Scratch* 11 Chasing Bubbles [20-1]
*Scratch* 1 Mr. Masterpiece [12-1]

08/10/15, SAR, Race 8, 4:52 ET
1M [Inner Turf] 1.33.01 STAKES. Purse $100,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Mark My Style [5/2] saved ground, saved ground... to 5th place
099.8564 :4: Payment Terms [4-1 * ] TSFC 4th
099.5125 :7: Possessed [6-1] E
097.9223 :1: Amazing Anne [3-1] 2nd - 6.50 4.10
096.2213 6 Memories of Peter [5-1] J 3rd - 4.70
094.6603 3 Secured Position [15-1] WL
093.5742 2 Ex Ex Ex [10-1] 1st - 24.00 11.00 7.30

08/10/15, SAR, Race 9, 5:26 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $45,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Aussie Prayer [7/2] JS 1st - 8.60 4.70 3.10
099.9999 :4: Splendid Gold [6-1] FEC 3rd - 4.00
098.5614 :3: Cosmic Tale [9/2 * ] 4th hesitated while crowded final 1/16
097.1363 :7: Jamaalaree [4-1] WL
092.2092 12 Northern Analyst [20-1]
089.5732 6 Misty Sunday [15-1] T
089.4212 9 Wantagh Queen [30-1]
087.5950 2 Freuda [12-1]
087.4243 1 Sheepish [50-1]
086.5158 11 Sanfiera [12-1] 2nd - 6.10 5.10
*Scratch* 8 Glare Ice [5-1]
*Scratch* 16 Take a Bow [8-1]
*Scratch* 15 Bye Sheila [5-1]
*Scratch* 14 Honeychild [15-1]
*Scratch* 13 Back to Me [30-1]
*Scratch* 10 Bay's Nanny [12-1]