Whitney

[Aerocraft67]

Gloriously talented field, tough to toss any from getting a piece, although you can find little flaws in even the best of them. Should be a truly exciting pair of late runs from top prospects Honor Code and Tonalist running down early Noble Bird and Coach Inge. Maybe Lea stays in the mix, along with any number of other wildcards here. Only the outside Normandy Invasion looks tossable—and he rounded out the super in the Kentucky Derby.

:1: Honor Code 3/1
Top class and speed—but not at 9f. He did win the 9f Remsen beating :9: among others as a 2yo. But he was right on a slow pace there, not the late running style he’s adopted since, and pace today shapes up fast. McGaughey wins SAR stakes. No doubt he’s likely to win with upside to spare in only eight starts but there’s enough concern there to consider others vs. this favorite.

:2: Tonalist 4/1
Has the very best 126 Timeform speed fig earned in the Suburban last out and has run well with as tough as any, but six other runners here have won in tougher-rated races by TF. Another six have better 9f speed figs, although he’s done well shorter and longer. Not exactly seconditis with a 42% win rate, including a score in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup that trounced :5:, :6:, and :9:. A must in the exacta but you could say that about half of these.

:3: Noble Bird 5/1
Inside with early speed the place to be, making this one perhaps the best early running prospect, and with stamina to finish. Third best 9f speed fig personal best last out in the Foster, just a digit or two below the best of these—ranking 6th in this tight field. Foster trip suggests he can he handle the other speed just to his outside.

:4: Liam’s Map 6/1
Our lightest-raced runner today placed in his debut and won the next four, his best and longest half a furlong short of today’s outing. Big early runner, but faces classier speed Noble Bird inside and stablemate Coach Inge outside. Top speed fig ranks just a hair under these. Potential for upside surprise from this Pletcher runner, with several notable “moves” in this scenario, but up against it here, and grudgingly prefer the other early runners.

:5: Moreno 12/1
Here’s where it gets interesting. Winner of this race last year earns it the best winning class and second best speed fig behind Tonalist’s 126. Yet he’s accumulated the worst win record with the most starts, darkening his talent along with a dearth of trainer stats and angles. In April he won the 9f G2 Charles Town classic 7/1, posting a 119 speed fig in a 118 race. He placed in the stronger G1 Santa Anita in March and G2 Californian in May. Tempting as the 7th choice but I don’t think he’ll overcome the speed up front.

:6: V.E. Day 8/1
Credit for beating Tonalist and Wicked Strong here at the Travers last year at 19/1, that after winning a 9f SAR stakes earlier in the meet at 8/1. Jerkens super with 3yo SAR stakes, and third off the layoff here. Best fig last, placing in the 12f Brooklyn behind :8: with a 124 in race rated 123 keeps him in the mix here. But best races are longer. Doesn’t stand out in any empirical category. Third of three late runners behind the top two monsters inside, and the fast pace might get away from him. I really want to bet this horse as a sixth choice but there’s probably just too much headwind here.

:7: Lea 9/2
Best combined early and late pace figures, suggesting versatile stamina. Class and speed figs right up there, including second best at 9f. Placed in last two of those that were speed biased and classy, although beaten by :3: last. Fair but not compelling as third choice. Vertical inclusion to complement early and late runners.

:8: Coach Inge 15/1
Definitely interested in the Pletcher-trained 15/1, 8th choice. Good figures in every category and looks to sustain early run. A rumored scratch so you have to wonder about the intent, but here’s a viable contender at a price, best value in the field on paper. Much of what you get with Noble Bird but at a better price.

:9: Wicked Strong 20/1
Tough to dismiss a Jerkens entry in SAR 3yo stakes switching back to dirt from turf. Last year here he beat Tonalist in the Jim Dandy, and placed behind V.E. Day and again in front of Tonalist in the Travers, before losing to Tonalist with others here in the Jockey Gold Cup. Clearly belongs with these, but he ranks low among them in every category beyond the trainer angles. He does have a balanced pace profile like :7:, but prefer that one in that role. You can’t bet them all, but you could do worse than to take this one as a longshot on the nose as the penultimate choice.

:10: Normandy Invasion 30/1
Similar proposition as the one to the inside, but weaker. Trainer knows 3yo stakes races and this one is third off the layoff. But lags in all the rankings on track record.

For me the best value is the :8:. He could win at a price and very likely to stay on for the show. Barring any surprises on the tote, best I can do to sort these out is blend the best of the early, late, and balanced runners in a gimmick or two, keying the :8: Coach Inge.

Early :3:, :8: (:5: )
Late :2:, :1: (:6: )
Middle :7: (:9: )

Would love to include the :5:, :6:, and :9: , but that’s a big spread, only tossing the :4: and :10:.

Who do you like?

[Ocala Mike]

Very competitive race (understatement)! I will be using :6: , V. E. DAY, up and down in all my exactas, plus a :1: :3: :6: exacta box.

[Aerocraft67]

With :8: scratched as expected, that makes the :3: real tough, and playable as fourth choice. Just needs to hold off the :4: speed to the outside and the late runners—the two favorites. No big deal, right?

With a case against late speed (not saying I can make one vs. two faves), I can see :3: with :7: :9: and maybe even :6:, hoping he'll be a bit closer than the Pace Projector has him.

Somewhat indiscriminately shuns the two favorites, but hey, it's a tight race!

[Aerocraft67]

5x1 Win :3:
1x3 Exactas :3: / :6: :7: :9:
1x2 Exactas :6: :7: / :3:
0.5x4 Trifectas :6: :7: / :6: :7: :9: / :3:

I'll dutch out the exactas when the probables settle in. Or maybe change my mind entirely.

[raybo]

I'll take :4: Liam's Map at or above his 6/1 morning line. Appears to be improving very well and his last was an easy victory against lesser, just a good workout. He has speed and, surprisingly, something late too. I think he fits here, if he can overcome the "class" gap.

[thaskalos]

This is a great race to watch...but for betting purposes, it's only worth a token wager, for me at least. The field is very closely bunched ability-wise...and I don't like to have the tote-board separate my contenders for me. My figures point to the :7: Lea...but the margin is scant, and I am not getting the right vibes in this race.

[raybo]

I'll take :4: Liam's Map at or above his 6/1 morning line. Appears to be improving very well and his last was an easy victory against lesser, just a good workout. He has speed and, surprisingly, something late too. I think he fits here, if he can overcome the "class" gap.

I watched Liam's Map's last race and he was far superior to the others. In hand until the stretch, in decent fractions, the jock let him have a little rein at the top of the stretch and he just took off. He quickly got 4 or 5 lengths on the closest rival before literally coasting home under no urging. That quick turn of foot at the top of the stretch is what I like to see, immediate response to loosening the reins. This horse wants to run!

Maybe the class jump is a little steep for such a lightly raced horse, but he certainly has some talent.

Replay: https://www.nyra.com/belmont/videos/race-replay/BED/2015/20150619/6/pan/

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm gonna cross-post this because hey, it's my site... :lol:

This race, like everyone has been saying, is super competitive...but basing on the morning line, doesn't look like a race that is going to offer a lot of value...

My contender line:

:2: 3/1
:1: 7/2
:6: 6/1
:7: 9/1

That's how I see it...and I will bet :6: at 8/1 or higher and :2: at 4/1 or higher. Since Tonalist isn't going to be anywhere near 4/1, my money will likely be on V.E. Day to come flying late and nail them. And since V.E. Day is a poor man's version of both Tonalist and Honor Code, I probably should be demanding a lot more than 8/1...but the pickings seem slim in this race as far as value goes, and there shall be no spreading... :lol:

[TexasDolly]

I'll be playing V.E Day if his price holds and it should.Probably use 2 or 3 favorites over him in exactas.
Thank you,
TD

[DeltaLover]

I will single the :4: in p6 + p4

[Tom]

I'll probably play VE Day if I can get good odds. but not really liking the race all that much. Maybe is I pop a cold one and take another look at it......VE Day, 3rd off a layoff, broke to a new top last out and figures to move ahead today. He could be the best in here.

[Aerocraft67]

Looks like we have ourselves a PA Wise Guy exacta box :4: + :6:

[Tom]

OK, nothing like a cold 20 oz to clear your thinking.

VE Day :6: and Noble Bird :3:

NB is just forging ahead with every dirt route he runs.
VE Day just topped and is still fresh, looks to move ahead more.

Too much speed in here to like the others.
Honor Code maybe gets the show spot.

[whodoyoulike]

:3: noble bird (5/1), should do well. Looks like he's on the improve somewhere around 148 +/-.


Btw OP, I'm envious of your analyses ..... good job.

[raybo]

Looks like we have ourselves a PA Wise Guy exacta box :4: + :6:

Changed your mind completely I see.

I'm still taking a lone win shot with the :4: .

[Aerocraft67]

Changed your mind completely I see.

I'm still taking a lone win shot with the :4: .

No, just pointing out the consensus, such as it is. Although I still reserve the right to change my mind, I haven't yet.

I just caught up on the other thread (sorry, PA, don't know how I missed it). Increased my fear of :5: , but as of yet not enough to spread my bets to include him.

[Aerocraft67]

Not that you want to suffer the general audience preliminaries, but the race coverage starts now on NBC.

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Taking a flyer on :10: Normandy Invasion at a price WPS. Never run at SPA maybe will love it and revert back to glory days at FG and GP. Soeed figures moving in right direction last two starts. Seems a revived horse in '15.

[Speed Figure]

Very good race! the value may come from the :3: and the :9:. I may box the top 5, but need one of the top 2 to finish off the board.

[Aerocraft67]

Very good race! the value may come from the :3: and the :9:. I may box the top 5, but need one of the top 2 to finish off the board.

Gratified by your post, not unlike I see it.

[iceknight]

I am going to bet on a :2: , :7: on top with a :2:,:7:, :9:

But 2 or 7 can go either way at the top. I don't see Honor Code being able to hit the board here... It is Saratoga after all.. and he is too favored.

If Tonalist is ridden well, he can get past a gritty Lea in the stretch.

[Speed Figure]

Value on the :9: is now gone!

[five-eighths]

:6: VE Day

Haven't looked at any PP's

[098poi]

I'll say win on :7: and :9:

[raybo]

The odds on :4: have to go up at least 1 point for me to bet. I wasn't crazy about the way he acted in the paddock and post parade either, looks a little uncomfortable (of course, that could also mean he's ready to run, who knows?). :bang:

[raybo]

Value on the :9: is now gone!

Lots of people bet the horses with the well known names, whether the horses have anything left or not.

[Aerocraft67]

Threw a 10x place bet on the :3: . Surprised to see him 6th choice at 8/1.

[Tee]

Let's say :5: Moreno & :4: Liam's Map hook up.

I would think :3: Noble Bird gets the best of trips. :7: Lea might get an even better trip.

The rest imo will have to do some running late. Now if the pace is hot enough anyone close may be compromised & that late running will be made much easier.

Starting to load good luck to everyone!!

[raybo]

Threw a 10x place bet on the :3: . Surprised to see him 6th choice at 8/1.

That's about what I see his chances, 8/1, 9/1.

[iceknight]

I am going to bet on a :2: , :7: on top with a :2:,:7:, :9:

But 2 or 7 can go either way at the top. I don't see Honor Code being able to hit the board here... It is Saratoga after all.. and he is too favored.

If Tonalist is ridden well, he can get past a gritty Lea in the stretch. UM.. WELL -- Tonalist da man!

[raybo]

Lot faster pace than I figured! Liam's Map ran a heck of a race for a non-graded stakes winner, coming out of an AOC last out. Well done! Great close by Honor Code!!

[098poi]

I was off the board but very exciting race!

[Aerocraft67]

Good lord, did he step on a rock or something? I managed to regale you all with a horse that came in DEAD LAST!

Raybo and Delta were onto something with the :4:, but :1: prevailed with the big run.

[EMD4ME]

Question:

Was Mike Smith imitating Diane Nelson or Taylor Rice from the 1/4 to the wire?

He looked like a 7 year old little girl in the lane.

WTH was that????

[Speed Figure]

Major props to Honor Code! he got the pace he needed and got the job done!

[DeltaLover]

Good lord, did he step on a rock or something? I managed to regale you all with a horse that came in DEAD LAST!

Raybo and Delta were onto something with the :4:, but :1: prevailed with the big run.

Unfortunately the improvement of :4: was not enough..

[raybo]

Unfortunately the improvement of :4: was not enough..

Yeah, but man I thought he had it. I had already turned away from the TV in the stretch thinking it was over. What a move by Honor Code! Liam's Map will need a rest after that one, very hot pace and a long, long stretch run. If he comes out of it healthy, we may hear some more from this one!

[ArlJim78]

Glad I watched this one, had the top two all wrong.
Did not see that coming from Liam's Map. Big race for him.

[DeltaLover]

Glad I watched this one, had the top two all wrong.
Did not see that coming from Liam's Map. Big race for him.

Not big enough..

[cj]

Not big enough..

Did you really need to say the same thing twice? Need to chill a bit today.

[thaskalos]

Did you really need to say the same thing twice? Need to chill a bit today.
DeltaLover isn't used to losing :). Me...I'm surprised when i WIN.

[Kash$]

Cant find Lea with a search warrant

[thaskalos]

Cant find Lea with a search warrant
Just another loss. Not even worth mentioning. :)

[DeltaLover]

DeltaLover isn't used to losing :). Me...I'm surprised when i WIN.

The truth has it that I over bet this horse, believing that he had a very good chance to win the race.. Of course, I missed all my bets since I only bet him for the top spot... Now, I have to either call it day recording the loss or try again with the :7: in the seventh in DMR...

[Kash$]

Did you really need to say the same thing twice? Need to chill a bit today.

1-5 Liams Map will be Pletcherized

[DeltaLover]

Did you really need to say the same thing twice? Need to chill a bit today.

Repetition is the mother of learning

[thaskalos]

The truth has it that I over bet this horse, believing that he had a very good chance to win the race.. Of course, I missed all my bets since I only bet him for the top spot... Now, I have to either call it day recording the loss or try again with the :7: in the seventh in DMR...
I already recorded my loss for the day...and went home. Tomorrow is another day...

[DeltaLover]

I already recorded my loss for the day...and went home. Tomorrow is another day...

Deciding when to stop betting for the day is one of the most critical decisions you can make as a gambler (of course this decision has nothing to do with money management but is mostly tied to psychology and tiredness). Any way, today I have only played the SPA races after the sixth, so it seems reasonable to make another prime bet since I like the :7: in the seventh in DMR... As you say, tomorrow is another day Thask!

[Tom]

Not big enough..

Big enough to rewward those who liked him and played him under the favorite a nice exacta payoff. Big is not only winning, that is for amtuers. Big coupled with profit, that is for winners.

[Tall One]

Cant find Lea with a search warrant


Lea? Won't see him no more..

~Peter Clemenza

[davew]

that was a blistering pace with 6 of them out there


did these jockeys not realize that they were going rather fast early, or did all of their connections tell them the only way they can win is on the lead?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Yeah, but man I thought he had it. I had already turned away from the TV in the stretch thinking it was over. What a move by Honor Code! Liam's Map will need a rest after that one, very hot pace and a long, long stretch run. If he comes out of it healthy, we may hear some more from this one!

Nah.

Supposedly with a tired horse who was stepping up huge in class, running in his 6th career race, in the longest distance he has ever ran, you are to whip him as hard as you can down the lane for the bettors after running splits of :22.79, :46, 1:09.72, and 1:34.66. Who care's about the next race, much less the rest of the horse's career?

Very very impressed by Liam's Map today. He ran a monster, and has stamped himself as a serious contender in the older male division. He beat 6 G1 winners today, and came up a step or two short against a uber-talented horse that is coming into his own in Honor Code.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Lea? Won't see him no more..

~Peter Clemenza

He had no excuse. Was in perfect position for first run, and had absolutely nothing when the real racing for him was to begin.

[RXB]

Nah.

Supposedly with a tired horse who was stepping up huge in class, running in his 6th career race, in the longest distance he has ever ran, you are to whip him as hard as you can down the lane for the bettors after running splits of :22.79, :46, 1:09.72, and 1:34.66. Who care's about the next race, much less the rest of the horse's career?

Very very impressed by Liam's Map today. He ran a monster, and has stamped himself as a serious contender in the older male division. He beat 6 G1 winners today, and came up a step or two short against a uber-talented horse that is coming into his own in Honor Code.

Plus, Liam's Map was running against a noticeable anti-front track bias. Didn't quite win but he definitely ran the best race yesterday, although looking forward I think he might be better suited to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile than the Classic.

[rastajenk]

Does a Whitney second-place get you into any Breeders Cup race? Seems like you should need more than that.

[raybo]

Not big enough..

I thought he improved more than enough to win, just ran that 1st quarter a bit too fast for a 9f race. I'm not blaming that on Smith, the horse looked pretty keyed up prior to the race and probably was too much to handle shortly after the break. He did settle well later but the damage had already been done by then. He backed up pretty good in the final 1/16th.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Plus, Liam's Map was running against a noticeable anti-front track bias. Didn't quite win but he definitely ran the best race yesterday, although looking forward I think he might be better suited to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile than the Classic.

After yesterday, he would be a monster in the Mile.

I still can't exclude him from the Classic. That was a huge effort at 9 furlongs. He can get better. AND he has in every race. I'm fully on board with Liam's Map after his run yesterday. He put away a lot of very good horses.

An improving horse that gets better every time out. He can get 10Fs.

[raybo]

Nah.

Supposedly with a tired horse who was stepping up huge in class, running in his 6th career race, in the longest distance he has ever ran, you are to whip him as hard as you can down the lane for the bettors after running splits of :22.79, :46, 1:09.72, and 1:34.66. Who care's about the next race, much less the rest of the horse's career?

Very very impressed by Liam's Map today. He ran a monster, and has stamped himself as a serious contender in the older male division. He beat 6 G1 winners today, and came up a step or two short against a uber-talented horse that is coming into his own in Honor Code.

Smith whipped him once, left handed about the 1/8th pole but the horse appeared to get a little out of kilter with that whip, and Mike probably noticed that, and just tried to urge him home from there. Whipping him more would probably have not done any good, and may have hurt his chances as the horse was already full out. Just ran out of steam in the final 1/16th. A 23 second 1st quarter would have been enough to eek out the win, but as I said earlier, he looked keyed up before the race, and he came out of the gate and through the first several jumps like a sprint race, if Mike had tried to hold him back at that point he may have ruined any chance of winning, which he almost did anyway. Hell of a run! I'd play that field, under those same conditions, the same way every time! Just one of those things that happen in races that can't be predicted, chalk it up as just another loss and move on. The play was the right one, it just didn't come through.

[NorCalGreg]

Good lord, did he step on a rock or something? I managed to regale you all with a horse that came in DEAD LAST!



Not at all, Aerocraft. Your original post enlightened us cheap-claimer players with an excellent, professional analysis. Good work. Thanks for posting. -NCG