Aerocraft67
08-05-2015, 09:32 PM
Intriguing race. My take based on Timeform PPs (free race of the day).
:1: Disco Partner 30/1
Needs big improvement to even get into the mix with others already proven at this level, some with still more upside. No catalyst or quality to speak of. Logical toss.
:2: Beantown Saint 6/1
Won its last of three races with a 105 fig in 100 company. Servis good with 3yos and repeat winners, not so much moving up to stakes from allowances. Lightly raced runner could advance to this level at a price to wire the field, but tough vs. favorite strong early. Most intriguing if price and late pace hold up.
:3: The Great War 7/2
Ran a big 116 in 97 company two back on synth as 1/9 favorite after running fourth in the BC Juvie. Bled subsequent stakes race. Beaucoup Ward angles on layoff and switches on distance, circuit, and surface. Legit second choice better value than the favorite with more balanced early/late pace.
:4: Zandar 12/1
Steady improvement to last fig 113 in 116 company but OTM vs. winner—today’s favorite :5: . No standout angles; cutback in distance could be a catalyst, although pedigree doesn’t support that. Uninspiring.
:5: Ready for Rye 5/2
Winner last out first on turf at a big 120 in 116 company. Repeat tough to beat here in weaker field. Middling allowance-to-stakes and won last trainer record chinks in the favorite’s armor, but a sleeper on turf sprints. Legit at reasonable price (not odds-on).
:6: Bottle Rocket 15/1
Great McLaughlin with mixed angles—middling alw to stakes and turf sprints, but promising first with trainer and notable SAR performance. Last 97 fig in like field little improved over previous two. Best late pace figs by small margin and slowest early. Weak for a piece or toss. Wildcard. Unless you really like closers here.
:7: Cyclogenisis 4/1
First of only four races the best at 97 fig in 95 field. Upside, but others have already advanced more. Some angles: switching circuits, winning last, running back 48 days, and SAR, but others more favorable at ML price.
:8: Gallery 15/1
Still improving on 110-figure win last time out in a 109 race at a mile (wiring only three foes). Turns back in distance but with uninspiring trainer stats. Nice blend of early and late pace, second best late figs here. Logical underneath and possible longshot to win; second most intriguing here after :2: .
:9: Sleeping Giant 15/1
Undefeated in two this year up to the 108 level with a 104 speed fig last. Blue chip trainer’s weakest angle a “65/100” moving up to stakes from allowance ranks, turf sprints also a drag. Undistinguished pace profile early or late. But room for improvement and legit longshot at a price.
:10: Element 10/1
Lightly raced Pletcher horse won last at solid 98 in 103 field at 7f. Another undistinguished pace profile. Contender for a piece with improvement but at what price?
Upgrading the :2: and downgrading the :7: from the ML, but hard to argue with top two choices. Longshot/exotic rounder is the :8:. Race shape looks honest/neutral. Let’s see what scratches bring. As of now I'd structure something around :5: :3: :2: :8: , de-empahsizing the legitimate favorite as much as I dared. Ill-advised spreading would include :9: & :10: , fearing :7:.
:1: Disco Partner 30/1
Needs big improvement to even get into the mix with others already proven at this level, some with still more upside. No catalyst or quality to speak of. Logical toss.
:2: Beantown Saint 6/1
Won its last of three races with a 105 fig in 100 company. Servis good with 3yos and repeat winners, not so much moving up to stakes from allowances. Lightly raced runner could advance to this level at a price to wire the field, but tough vs. favorite strong early. Most intriguing if price and late pace hold up.
:3: The Great War 7/2
Ran a big 116 in 97 company two back on synth as 1/9 favorite after running fourth in the BC Juvie. Bled subsequent stakes race. Beaucoup Ward angles on layoff and switches on distance, circuit, and surface. Legit second choice better value than the favorite with more balanced early/late pace.
:4: Zandar 12/1
Steady improvement to last fig 113 in 116 company but OTM vs. winner—today’s favorite :5: . No standout angles; cutback in distance could be a catalyst, although pedigree doesn’t support that. Uninspiring.
:5: Ready for Rye 5/2
Winner last out first on turf at a big 120 in 116 company. Repeat tough to beat here in weaker field. Middling allowance-to-stakes and won last trainer record chinks in the favorite’s armor, but a sleeper on turf sprints. Legit at reasonable price (not odds-on).
:6: Bottle Rocket 15/1
Great McLaughlin with mixed angles—middling alw to stakes and turf sprints, but promising first with trainer and notable SAR performance. Last 97 fig in like field little improved over previous two. Best late pace figs by small margin and slowest early. Weak for a piece or toss. Wildcard. Unless you really like closers here.
:7: Cyclogenisis 4/1
First of only four races the best at 97 fig in 95 field. Upside, but others have already advanced more. Some angles: switching circuits, winning last, running back 48 days, and SAR, but others more favorable at ML price.
:8: Gallery 15/1
Still improving on 110-figure win last time out in a 109 race at a mile (wiring only three foes). Turns back in distance but with uninspiring trainer stats. Nice blend of early and late pace, second best late figs here. Logical underneath and possible longshot to win; second most intriguing here after :2: .
:9: Sleeping Giant 15/1
Undefeated in two this year up to the 108 level with a 104 speed fig last. Blue chip trainer’s weakest angle a “65/100” moving up to stakes from allowance ranks, turf sprints also a drag. Undistinguished pace profile early or late. But room for improvement and legit longshot at a price.
:10: Element 10/1
Lightly raced Pletcher horse won last at solid 98 in 103 field at 7f. Another undistinguished pace profile. Contender for a piece with improvement but at what price?
Upgrading the :2: and downgrading the :7: from the ML, but hard to argue with top two choices. Longshot/exotic rounder is the :8:. Race shape looks honest/neutral. Let’s see what scratches bring. As of now I'd structure something around :5: :3: :2: :8: , de-empahsizing the legitimate favorite as much as I dared. Ill-advised spreading would include :9: & :10: , fearing :7:.