Up for discussion / Open to advice

[coachv30]

For the past month or so, I've been conducting some research on 6 different factors found in the past performances. They are as follows:

1) Final time off last race
2) Best final time in the past 3 months when finishing 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
3) Best final time in the past 3 races
4) Best winning time this current year.
5) Best final fraction off last race.
6) Best final fraction off last 3 races.

I've reached 116 races handicapped while looking at these factors. Out of the 116 winners, 100 of them came out on top in one or more of these categories. I know it's been mentioned numerous times on here, "How do we know that "x" factor was the reason this horse won? To be completely honest, I don't think we ever will.

I took the 100 winners who finished on top in one or more of these 6 categories, and did a breakdown of how much each category coontributed. The results are below:

1) Final time- 18%
2) Best final time in the past 3 months when finishing 1st, 2nd or 3rd- 14%
3) Best final time in the past 3 races- 18%
4) Best winning time this current year- 24%
5) Best final fraction off last race- 14%
6) Best final fraction off last 3 races-12%

I've set up an EXCEL program with each of these columns weighted accordingly. For now on, I will post these spreadsheets into this thread if anyone is interested.

The advice I am open to is any other ways to manipulate or weight these factors as well as suggestions for other (quantitative) factors that I could include.

PLEASE do not chime in with opinions on whether or not you see these factors as relevant or not. I'm more interested in the results showing which of of them play a more relevant role than others. Hope to hear some feedback soon.

[Sinner369]

Coach........good for you..........in any type of horse racing whether harness or thoroughbred there is no such thing as a "sure factor" that will lead you to consistently pick the winner.

The only thing as a handicapper is that we have to keep an "open mind" to anything and as everyone knows these factors are constantly changing.

So keep us abreast of how you are doing with your "factors"....I for one would be very interested.

[coachv30]

Pocono Race 1

KEY- BLUE- Highest
YELLOW- Second Highest

FTR= Final Time rating
SR= Success rating (best time 1st, 2nd or 3rd)
BL3- Best final time last 3 races (not including last race)
B3M- Best final time in past 3 months
FF- Best final fraction last out
BFF3- Best final fraction off last 3 races
APR- Average power rating (not weighted)
WAPR- Average weighted power rating

[pandy]

I've found that if a horse has the best recent final time, for instance the highest speed figure in its last three starts, the chances of the horse winning go up of one of his other two starts is also ranked high.

For instance, there's an option in my Diamond System where it gives you each horse's last three races ranked from best to worst. If a horse is ranked 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, the horse's chance of winning are far greater than if it is ranked 1st 7th, and 9th. If a horse's last three races are ranked 2nd, 3rd, 6th, it's chance of winning is much greater than if it's ranked 2nd, 6th and 9th. This isn't always true, but overall it is. So I guess that means that taking an average would probably be the best approach. But it makes sense, because a horse that consistently puts up competitive figures is going to have a better chance than a horse that raced one good figure. The horse with several competitive figures is much more likely to repeat that figure, and therefore more likely to win the race.

[pandy]

It doesn't surprise me that best time this year did well. Often when I'm handicapping a race, if the race seems close and I'm having a tough time separating the horses, I look at each horse's best lifetime mark, and the horse's best time over the track this year.

[coachv30]

Pocono Race 2

FTR= Final Time rating
SR= Success rating (best time 1st, 2nd or 3rd)
BL3- Best final time last 3 races (not including last race)
BY Best time this year
FF- Best final fraction last out
BFF3- Best final fraction off last 3 races
APR- Average power rating (not weighted)
WAPR- Average weighted power rating

[coachv30]

Passing race 3...not enough data with some 2 YO races.

[coachv30]

Pocono Race 4

[pandy]

Pocono Race 2

FTR= Final Time rating
SR= Success rating (best time 1st, 2nd or 3rd)
BL3- Best final time last 3 races (not including last race)
BY Best time this year
FF- Best final fraction last out
BFF3- Best final fraction off last 3 races
APR- Average power rating (not weighted)
WAPR- Average weighted power rating


The first race is a 2yo trot, risky. In the second, the 1 horse, which has your top ranking, consistently runs the same number. However the 4 horse had one race, on 7/29, that was faster than any of the one's recent races.

[coachv30]

However the 4 horse had one race, on 7/29, that was faster than any of the one's recent races.

I got that race as a 97...Should have been BLUE instead of YELLOW.

[coachv30]

Pocono Race 5

Another 2 YO race but I was able to dig enough out of it. I had to use a few qualifiers for times (I subtracted 1 second). We'll see how it goes.

[Sinner369]

We should keep in mind that harness horses can also best their lifetime marks. I have seen seven year olds that beat their lifetime mark in a race.

And when that happens, Coach.......all your listed factors go out the door.

[coachv30]

We should keep in mind that harness horses can also best their lifetime marks. I have seen seven year olds that beat their lifetime mark in a race.

And when that happens, Coach.......all your listed factors go out the door.

In that case you can just hope that your horse is the one who beats his best. As we said before.....we're not going to hit every race for a number of reasons. The one you stated is one of those reasons.

[coachv30]

Pocono Race 6

[coachv30]

Pocono Race 7

[coachv30]

Pocono Race 8

[coachv30]

Pocono Race 9

[Sea Biscuit]

Coach Do you take into account the daily track variant into your final time ratings?

I am a little busy right now but more questions later.

[coachv30]

Pocono Race 10

[coachv30]

Coach Do you take into account the daily track variant into your final time ratings?

I am a little busy right now but more questions later.

I haven't done so because I'm handicapping these races the night of.....

When I do them the day before, I have taken it into consideration. I do all this with pencil and paper so adding that step in as the races are going on will cause me to fall behind. The only adjustments I've been making is on moves from 1/2 to 5/8, 1M to 5/8......etc.

Believe me...I wish I had the excel formula skills to be able to create a template that does this for me. That way I could just upload Trackmaster data cards.

[coachv30]

Pocono Race 11

[coachv30]

Pocono Race 12

[coachv30]

Pocono Race 13

[coachv30]

Pocono Race 14

[coachv30]

Northfield 13

[coachv30]

Pocono Race 1

KEY- BLUE- Highest
YELLOW- Second Highest

FTR= Final Time rating
SR= Success rating (best time 1st, 2nd or 3rd)
BL3- Best final time last 3 races (not including last race)
B3M- Best final time in past 3 months
FF- Best final fraction last out
BFF3- Best final fraction off last 3 races
APR- Average power rating (not weighted)
WAPR- Average weighted power rating

Thought I cold view the attachment as well when I quote the post...but I guess not.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Pocono Race 1

KEY- BLUE- Highest
YELLOW- Second Highest

FTR= Final Time rating
SR= Success rating (best time 1st, 2nd or 3rd)
BL3- Best final time last 3 races (not including last race)
B3M- Best final time in past 3 months
FF- Best final fraction last out
BFF3- Best final fraction off last 3 races
APR- Average power rating (not weighted)
WAPR- Average weighted power rating
Coach:
I am trying to follow you and think I did until the chart was posted.
The raw data you are using, the numbers, are they the trackmaster speed figures or ones that you created using a formula based on speed of the times/fractions in the past performances?

[coachv30]

The latter of the two....I create them off of the final times / fractions.

[coachv30]

Up to date figures

Seven winners on tonight's card at Pocono finished on top of one or more of the categories. Unfortunately, six of the seven had the top rating in more than one category....anyways, here's where we are to this point (including my initial 100).

1) Final time off of last race- 19.4%
2) Best time finishishing 1st-3rd- 14.3%
3) Best final time out of past 3 races- 18.2%
4) Best final time on the year- 22.1%
5) Best final fraction off last race- 13%
6) Best final fraction from past 3 races- 13%

Tomorrow's spreadsheet will be weighted according to these new percentages above.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

The latter of the two....I create them off of the final times / fractions.
Thank you

[Sea Biscuit]

Up to date figures

Seven winners on tonight's card at Pocono finished on top of one or more of the categories. Unfortunately, six of the seven had the top rating in more than one category....anyways, here's where we are to this point (including my initial 100).

1) Final time off of last race- 19.4%
2) Best time finishishing 1st-3rd- 14.3%
3) Best final time out of past 3 races- 18.2%
4) Best final time on the year- 22.1%
5) Best final fraction off last race- 13%
6) Best final fraction from past 3 races- 13%

Tomorrow's spreadsheet will be weighted according to these new percentages above.

Since the title of the thread is "Up for discussion and open for advice" I have to say that your methodology constantly produces negative ROIs. Of the above 6 factors not one can be used with any bit of confidence. You toil so hard with your numbers but with little effect. I did a hypothetical exactas for your Pocono numbers for last night playing ab/abcd and here are the results. I did it very quickly so plz correct me if I made any error/s.

Click to enlarge

http://i.imgur.com/QQLGXUQ.png (http://imgur.com/QQLGXUQ)

IMHO any system based on final times without taking into consideration the pace of the race is doomed for failure. Final times are totally dependent on the pace of the race. A slow pace begets a slow final time and vice versa for a fast pace. To prove my point take a look at the PPs of Passionate Pete as they appeared in the Mohawk program of Aug 4 race 4

http://i.imgur.com/IDi5NpY.png (http://imgur.com/IDi5NpY)

PP achieved his best final time of 1:52:2 coming off the pace in a crushing half mile time of 54:3 and 1:23:3. He was bet down to 5/2 based on that final time and he reverted back coming 5th by 5 in 1:54 on a much slower pace.

Another example: Float on By Mohawk Aug 1 Race 8

http://i.imgur.com/3xfWWSX.png (http://imgur.com/3xfWWSX)

He got his best final time of 1:53 flat based on a fast pace. In his next race he was bet down to 4-1 off a ML of 10-1 and again coughed up the the race badly.

If you don't believe what I am saying just pick up any program and see for yourself that horses achieve their best final times with a fast pace.

In harness racing there are some good performance lines and some not so good. Thats a story for another day.

[Ray2000]

Coach
Another category that you may want to look at is best projected speed from the last 3 race trend.

Take 2 horses with these times, they have the same average but horse "A" is improving.

Races back Race Time
1 115.2
Horse "A" 2 115.3
Ave 115.3 3 115.4
today 115.1 <--Spreadsheet Cell "D5" ..this is Excel Formula
=FORECAST(C5,C2:C4,B2:B4)


1 115.4
Horse"B" 2 115.3
Ave 115.3 3 115.2
today 115.5


Many will argue that form is NOT projectable (Bounce theory) but I've found that this treatment of times
leads to underbet (overlaid) horses where as best times leads to overbet faves.

Doing your numbers by hand must be a Herculean task :eek: Good Luck with it.

[pandy]

Since the title of the thread is "Up for discussion and open for advice" I have to say that your methodology constantly produces negative ROIs. Of the above 6 factors not one can be used with any bit of confidence. You toil so hard with your numbers but with little effect. I did a hypothetical exactas for your Pocono numbers for last night playing ab/abcd and here are the results. I did it very quickly so plz correct me if I made any error/s.

Click to enlarge

http://i.imgur.com/QQLGXUQ.png (http://imgur.com/QQLGXUQ)

IMHO any system based on final times without taking into consideration the pace of the race is doomed for failure. Final times are totally dependent on the pace of the race. A slow pace begets a slow final time and vice versa for a fast pace. To prove my point take a look at the PPs of Passionate Pete as they appeared in the Mohawk program of Aug 4 race 4

http://i.imgur.com/IDi5NpY.png (http://imgur.com/IDi5NpY)

PP achieved his best final time of 1:52:2 coming off the pace in a crushing half mile time of 54:3 and 1:23:3. He was bet down to 5/2 based on that final time and he reverted back coming 5th by 5 in 1:54 on a much slower pace.

Another example: Float on By Mohawk Aug 1 Race 8

http://i.imgur.com/3xfWWSX.png (http://imgur.com/3xfWWSX)

He got his best final time of 1:53 flat based on a fast pace. In his next race he was bet down to 4-1 off a ML of 10-1 and again coughed up the the race badly.

If you don't believe what I am saying just pick up any program and see for yourself that horses achieve their best final times with a fast pace.

In harness racing there are some good performance lines and some not so good. Thats a story for another day.


One way to avoid this underlay is to avoid betting horses going up in class when they scored the fastest time in last start.

But another point, this is where the consistency of final times comes into play. Float On By went 1:53 closing off a fast pace. Looking at his prior times, 1:56.4, 1:54.1, 1:54.1, 1:55.3, 1:55.1, it does appear that the 1:53 is an obvious aberration. Based on these times, I would hesitate to bet this horse unless I thought the race was going to go in 1:54.1 or slower.

Another point, Mohawk is kinder to closers than many harness tracks. When looking at half mile and five eighth tracks, horses don't rally to win off of fast paces that often so there are less phony final times. In other words, a horse that raced close to the fast pace wins more often than not. I was at Pocono Saturday night and horses with the best recent final times won most of the races, but horses rarely get lucky and win by rallying off a fast pace at Pocono.

So, using final times arbitrarily based on a set rule is not as good as analyzing each horse's final times.

[coachv30]

Since the title of the thread is "Up for discussion and open for advice" I have to say that your methodology constantly produces negative ROIs. Of the above 6 factors not one can be used with any bit of confidence. You toil so hard with your numbers but with little effect. I did a hypothetical exactas for your Pocono numbers for last night playing ab/abcd and here are the results. I did it very quickly so plz correct me if I made any error/s.

Click to enlarge

http://i.imgur.com/QQLGXUQ.png (http://imgur.com/QQLGXUQ)

IMHO any system based on final times without taking into consideration the pace of the race is doomed for failure. Final times are totally dependent on the pace of the race. A slow pace begets a slow final time and vice versa for a fast pace. To prove my point take a look at the PPs of Passionate Pete as they appeared in the Mohawk program of Aug 4 race 4

http://i.imgur.com/IDi5NpY.png (http://imgur.com/IDi5NpY)

PP achieved his best final time of 1:52:2 coming off the pace in a crushing half mile time of 54:3 and 1:23:3. He was bet down to 5/2 based on that final time and he reverted back coming 5th by 5 in 1:54 on a much slower pace.

Another example: Float on By Mohawk Aug 1 Race 8

http://i.imgur.com/3xfWWSX.png (http://imgur.com/3xfWWSX)

He got his best final time of 1:53 flat based on a fast pace. In his next race he was bet down to 4-1 off a ML of 10-1 and again coughed up the the race badly.

If you don't believe what I am saying just pick up any program and see for yourself that horses achieve their best final times with a fast pace.

In harness racing there are some good performance lines and some not so good. Thats a story for another day.

First of all....I'm aware that ROI is the important factor, you're stating the obvious. However, I'm trying to use these factors in a manner that equate to a better ROI. I have a method that I use that takes the pace of the race into consideration. However....I only use it when I''m doing quick handicapping and looking at last race only. I'll share it with you if interested. Adding it in to what I'm doing here would take me too long.

On another note.......you make it sound as if this game is so easy. What would you recommend that would have added to the ROI on last night's Pocono card? What would have pointed me in the direction of the :5: horse in the 13th that paid $77.00?

There are nights that I do very well and nights I come up short, just like all of us.

Did you also calculate what the ROI would have been if you only made a $2 wager to win on the top two selections in each posted race last night?

ROI is thrown around in so many ways. You're commenting on it after 13 posted races (using an Exacta Key) example. Suppose it did VERY well last night? Then we wold have to look at it for the WEEK. After a week, if it's still good.....then it's a month, then year.....etc.

Remember....I'm not selling anything here. Therefore, your constructive statement below......

"IMHO any system based on final times without taking into consideration the pace of the race is doomed for failure."

Is the only real validity I will take from your post. The rest I will look at as bashing. Please....if you have a suggestion on how to quickly adjust final time based on pace of the race please share.

[pandy]

I have pace adjusted and regular speed figures that my system generates using the trackmaster variants. I'll run some tests to see how the pace adjusted speed does compared to the basic raw speed figure.

[coachv30]

Here's an example on how I adjust final times based on pace of the race. This is something that I've done for a long time now with thoroughbreds. However for harness......

I use a 150.0 as a standard for final time. If a horse has a final time of 153.1 like horse 1 below, that's 16 ticks away from standard equating to an 84 RAW speed rating. To adjust that according to pace, I use a 53 as a standard for the half.

Horse 1 was running on the lead at 55.3 which is 13 ticks off of standard. He was also in the lead so that was HIS actual 1/2 mile time. So...I would add 13 to my raw time rating of 84 to get a 97 pace adjusted rating.

If you look at horse 9 though his final time was a 153:4 which equates to a RAW figure of 81. However, he was running BEHIND a 1/2 mile of 55.4 which is 14 off of the standard of 53. On top of that....he was 6 lengths behind at the half. Therefore, I would not only add 14 but another 6 as well to compensate for the further distance he had to run.

81 + 20 = 101 pace adjusted rating.

With RAW times....the 1 horse was one tick faster. When adjusted to the pace and the scenario, the 9 was actually four ticks faster.

[Ray2000]

Who Dey made up 2 lengths (6¼-4¼) during the 2nd half of the Clock time, 1:53.0 - 55.8 = 57.2 (leaders' final half time in 10ths of second)

So he went his final half in 56.8, ...or by your way, add 2 not 6 for ground gained.

[coachv30]

Who Dey made up 2 lengths (6¼-4¼) during the 2nd half of the Clock time, 1:53.0 - 55.8 = 57.2 (leaders' final half time in 10ths of second)

So he went his final half in 56.8, ...or by your way, add 2 not 6 for ground gained.

I know what you're saying but I'm not using the winner's final time to start with (1:53)....Instead, I'm starting out with THIS horse's actual final time of 1:53.4. Therefore, the 4 lengths out at the finish is already acounted for. I'm also looking at 5ths of seconds not 10ths.

In T-Breds, they only give the final time of the winner. In that case, I would subtract those 2 points from the final rating to account for what you are referring to.

[mrroyboy]

Coach this is good stuff.

[coachv30]

Coach this is good stuff.


Thanks Roy :ThmbUp:

[coachv30]

Tonight's track will be Mohawk. My ratings tonight are all adjusted based on the pace from the race they were taken from. The only RAW rating is the first column labeled (RFTR). This is the raw final time. Everything else was adjusted based on the pace scenario as I mentioned in a few posts above. Lett's see how this does. It only took me 3 hours to do the first 7 races :D I'll do the rest later after baseball practice.

[Sea Biscuit]

.he was 6 lengths behind at the half.

Coach Who Dey was 9 1/2 lengths behind at the half and not 6 lengths.

[coachv30]

Mohawk Races 3-4

[coachv30]

Coach Who Dey was 9 1/2 lengths behind at the half and not 6 lengths.

Oh Crap!! Tonight's data may be skewed then.....I will make that adjustment with the last three tonight. I'm more familiar with the call spots for T-Breds.

See that.....you get me looking at 1/2 times and I screw everything up :D J/K

Let's see how they do anyways.

[coachv30]

Mohawk 5-6

[coachv30]

Mohawk Race 7

[coachv30]

Oh Crap!! Tonight's data may be skewed then.....I will make that adjustment with the last three tonight. I'm more familiar with the call spots for T-Breds.

See that.....you get me looking at 1/2 times and I screw everything up :D J/K

Let's see how they do anyways.

If anything....at least I was consistent and used the 3/4 mark for all entries. I know that still makes for inconsistencies. First time using this adjustment with the harness races. Takes so damn long doing all of the math in my head. :bang:

[coachv30]

The last three Mohawk races were adjusted using the 1/2 mile pace call.

Mohawk 8 - 9

[coachv30]

Mohawk 9

[coachv30]

Mohawk 10

[Unicorn]

On the $ with the 5.

[Sea Biscuit]

81 + 20 = 101 pace adjusted rating.



Another question for ya Coach.

That 101 adjusted rating what would that represent in actual adjusted final time?

Is 20 points = 4 seconds?

Thanks in advance.

[coachv30]

This was a very difficult card to handicap tonight between the number of 2 YO races as well as all of the shippers from 5/8 Georgian. To add to it, I was using the wrong call mark for the 1/2 mile pace adjustment. I didn't fix it until the race eight. Up to then, I could have probably made up numbers.

Therefore, I will not evaluate any of tonight's races. I will post the first five from the Big M in about an hour and the rest tomorrow. I'm interested to see how this does there when using the correct numbers.

BTW.....Sea Biscuit, thanks for bringing that to my attention.

[coachv30]

Another question for ya Coach.

That 101 adjusted rating what would that represent in actual adjusted final time?

Is 20 points = 4 seconds?

Thanks in advance.

Yes.....i just use the standard of 1 length per 1/5 of a second like T-Breds. I know the standardbreds travel a bit slower but as long as I am using the same constant figure throughout to adjust, it will all equal out.

I use 1:50 as the standard for 100. Therefore, the 101 rating would equate to a 1:49 4/5. In fact, if I would have actually used the 1/2 mark he was 9 1/2 behind. This would have given him a 105 rating which equates to a 1:49 flat.

[coachv30]

Here are the first five races at the Big M tomorrow. Ignore the selections bolded in GREEN. They are mythical pick five selections based on what the charts show.

Meadowlands 1 - 2

[coachv30]

Meadowlands 3 - 4

[coachv30]

Meadowlands 5

[coachv30]

I'm curious to see how these match up with Pandy's picks tomorrow.

[Sea Biscuit]

Yes.....i just use the standard of 1 length per 1/5 of a second like T-Breds. I know the standardbreds travel a bit slower but as long as I am using the same constant figure throughout to adjust, it will all equal out.

I use 1:50 as the standard for 100. Therefore, the 101 rating would equate to a 1:49 4/5. In fact, if I would have actually used the 1/2 mark he was 9 1/2 behind. This would have given him a 105 rating which equates to a 1:49 flat.

Wow!!! A 1:49 flat rating for a 8000 claimer. I think you are way too generous with your pace adjustments is all I can say.

So Coach whats it gonna be from now onwards? Pace adjusted speed figs or the raw final times as they appear in the program?

Here is another example how a slow pace begets a slow final time.

Aug 1 Race 9 Mohawk

http://i.imgur.com/iqxnZYs.png (http://imgur.com/iqxnZYs)

Bet ya has two final times of 50 and change on July 18 and July 11 and yet he won in a slowpoke mile of 1:51:4. What happened here? Just check out how slow the 1/2 and 3/4 times were. In order for Bet Ya to pace in 50.2 on this day he would have to pace his last qtr in 25.3 which I think is beyond the capabilities of Bet Ya.

Good luck in your quest for a better pace adjusted final times methodology.

[MutuelClerk]

Coach appreciate your work. Do you think this system would work better with overnight races or stake races? Or no difference between the two?

[coachv30]

Wow!!! A 1:49 flat rating for a 8000 claimer. I think you are way too generous with your pace adjustments is all I can say.

So Coach whats it gonna be from now onwards? Pace adjusted speed figs or the raw final times as they appear in the program?

Here is another example how a slow pace begets a slow final time.

Aug 1 Race 9 Mohawk

http://i.imgur.com/iqxnZYs.png (http://imgur.com/iqxnZYs)

Bet ya has two final times of 50 and change on July 18 and July 11 and yet he won in a slowpoke mile of 1:51:4. What happened here? Just check out how slow the 1/2 and 3/4 times were. In order for Bet Ya to pace in 50.2 on this day he would have to pace his last qtr in 25.3 which I think is beyond the capabilities of Bet Ya.

Good luck in your quest for a better pace adjusted final times methodology.

Yeah...I agree. However, if I used a different standard other than 150 for the final time and :53 for the 1/2 mile, it wouldn't be a 1:49. In fact each class level should have its own constant to use. In fact I use the same numbers whether it's a pace or a trot. As long as I use the same numbers to compare each horse it will all equal out. Here's an example below


Compare the last two Races of this horse:

Using a standard of 150, the 153.0 last out would be an 85.

Two races back the 153.3 would equal an 82.

However, if I were using a tougher standard (constant) of let's say 1:48 then the 153.0 would now equal a 75 rating and the 153.3 two back would actually be a 72.

However...if you do the math, it still equals out to a 3 point difference between these two races. It's all relative as long as your constant stays the same.

Remember, I do these numbers in my head as I'm looking at the PP's on the screen. It's a lot easier to use the same numbers to compare.

[coachv30]

Coach appreciate your work. Do you think this system would work better with overnight races or stake races? Or no difference between the two?

To be totally honest, I don't know. What really makes it difficult is when you have a race with 3 or 4 shippers from shorter or longer tracks. Here's an example below of two horses in the same race at the Meadowlands.

Anyone have any advice as to whether I should adjust the RAW time of the 7 horse coming from a shorter track?

[coachv30]

So Coach whats it gonna be from now onwards? Pace adjusted speed figs or the raw final times as they appear in the program?




I'm sticking to the adjusted figures tonight. Looking back on last night, if you were to wager $2 to win on the top two selections in each race and box them in an exacta for $1 it would have costed $60 total. It would have returned $124.70. I think it's worth another go-around tonight.

[Stick]

To be totally honest, I don't know. What really makes it difficult is when you have a race with 3 or 4 shippers from shorter or longer tracks. Here's an example below of two horses in the same race at the Meadowlands.

Anyone have any advice as to whether I should adjust the RAW time of the 7 horse coming from a shorter track?

My advice is to avoid the races where you have many shippers. Concentrate on tracks that have horses consistently racing at that track to see how your ratings are working. There are many reasons for shippers to run races that don't resemble their last 3 and they do it all the time.

[mrroyboy]

Pandy has some track speed adjustments in one of his articles. But it's better to pass races with too many shippers.

[coachv30]

[/B]
My advice is to avoid the races where you have many shippers. Concentrate on tracks that have horses consistently racing at that track to see how your ratings are working. There are many reasons for shippers to run races that don't resemble their last 3 and they do it all the time.

I will take that advice and stick with tracks/races where horses run consistently. I will be posting Maywood 9 - 12 in a little bit. In the meantime, I'm actually going to play a pick four ticket at Big M in race 7. I handicapped the races using my usual methods and not pace adjustments.

50 Cent Pick Four- 2,3,5 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,7,8 / 5,8 = $36

[coachv30]

I will take that advice and stick with tracks/races where horses run consistently. I will be posting Maywood 9 - 12 in a little bit. In the meantime, I'm actually going to play a pick four ticket at Big M in race 7. I handicapped the races using my usual methods and not pace adjustments.

50 Cent Pick Four- 2,3,5 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,7,8 / 5,8 = $36

Burnt in first leg by a shipper from The Meadows :bang:

[coachv30]

Maywood 9 - 11

[Sea Biscuit]

Maywood 9 - 11

Just curious Coach. How long does it take to do one race?

[coachv30]

Just curious Coach. How long does it take to do one race?

Too long for the lack of results...about 10-15 minutes. I think this test is over.

[coachv30]

Too long for the lack of results...about 10-15 minutes. I think this test is over.

Although it did produce a monster exacta in the 9th at Maywood.

[Sea Biscuit]

I think this test is over.

Why do you say that?

[coachv30]

Why do you say that?

It's mentally straining....I'm seeing PP's when I close my eyes at night. I'm literally looking at every past race of every entry and doing mental calculations of every one.

[Sea Biscuit]

It's mentally straining....I'm seeing PP's when I close my eyes at night. I'm literally looking at every past race of every entry and doing mental calculations of every one.

I can understand that. Get yourself a good nites sleep. Tomorrows another day.

[coachv30]

Does anyone know of any good excel tutorials that would give you the ability to build a program that could do these things upon PP download.

[Ray2000]

Does anyone know of any good excel tutorials that would give you the ability to build a program that could do these things upon PP download.
Years ago I gave away a free program using an Excel spreadsheet to analyze Harness Races where the user could "weight" various factors to see how that would effect the results.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=57187


That program has a sheet "PastP" which lists the final times in seconds for each pastperformance line for each horse on the card.

It uses digital data form of TrackMaster's Harness program which you will need to purchase. (see help page).

The Excel file can be found at this file sharing site:


http://ge.tt/3iYWGrL2/v/0?c


When you open the sheet you will be on a page, listing the times in columns BY:CA.
Column A is the horses' ID number, Column B is the Race number.
You can to copy the times for each horse by using Columns A & B as an index guide.
then paste into a new sheet for your speed calculations.


ENJOY!

[coachv30]

Years ago I gave away a free program using an Excel spreadsheet to analyze Harness Races where the user could "weight" various factors to see how that would effect the results.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=57187


That program has a sheet "PastP" which lists the final times in seconds for each pastperformance line for each horse on the card.

It uses digital data form of TrackMaster's Harness program which you will need to purchase. (see help page).

The Excel file can be found at this file sharing site:


http://ge.tt/3iYWGrL2/v/0?c


When you open the sheet you will be on a page, listing the times in columns BY:CA.
Column A is the horses' ID number, Column B is the Race number.
You can to copy the times for each horse by using Columns A & B as an index guide.
then paste into a new sheet for your speed calculations.


ENJOY!


This is fantastic Ray.......thank you!!

[coachv30]

I used the track variants today to adjust final time ratings instead of pace adjustments.

Harrahs 7 - 8

[coachv30]

Harrahs 9

[coachv30]

Harrahs 10

[coachv30]

Balmoral 7th and 9th

[coachv30]

Balmoral 10

[coachv30]

Pocono 4

Once again...all columns are adjusted to the Trackmaster variant.

[mrroyboy]

Ok so the sel are the picks in order of preference?

[coachv30]

Ok so the sel are the picks in order of preference?


Yep....based solely on what the charts are showing.

[coachv30]

Pocono 5

[coachv30]

Pocono 6

Very tough based off this chart....

[coachv30]

Pocono 7

[coachv30]

Pocono 8

[coachv30]

Pocono 9

[coachv30]

Pocono 10

[coachv30]

Pocono 12

[Sinner369]

Years ago I gave away a free program using an Excel spreadsheet to analyze Harness Races where the user could "weight" various factors to see how that would effect the results.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=57187


That program has a sheet "PastP" which lists the final times in seconds for each pastperformance line for each horse on the card.

It uses digital data form of TrackMaster's Harness program which you will need to purchase. (see help page).

The Excel file can be found at this file sharing site:


http://ge.tt/3iYWGrL2/v/0?c


When you open the sheet you will be on a page, listing the times in columns BY:CA.
Column A is the horses' ID number, Column B is the Race number.
You can to copy the times for each horse by using Columns A & B as an index guide.
then paste into a new sheet for your speed calculations.


ENJOY!

Ray2000............thanks for the updated version for Windows 7. I downloaded it today and it works very well. I must had the older versions cause I could not get it to work with Win 7.

[Ray2000]

Ray2000............thanks for the updated version for Windows 7. I downloaded it today and it works very well. I must had the older versions cause I could not get it to work with Win 7.
Glad it works for you.

I had 2 versions (both named "Sulky Picker" :rolleyes: ), one written for Excel spreadsheet and the other coded using Visual Basic compiler. It was the stand-alone version that would not work on Windows 7.

There is a difference between the 2, ...the spreadsheet version is using category ranks to rate the horses whereas the VB version "normalizes" the factors to a time unit and uses that to calculate the entries chances (Odds). It's hard to say which is the better method, depends on weights given to the factors.