131 TimeformUS for American Pharoah

[cj]

Fastest figure of the year for all horses, fastest 3yo since Rachel Alexandra ran a 136 in the Haskell. Could he have topped that if asked to run? I think so, probably a 140 horse in my opinion.

[Vinnie]

CJ:

Thank you so much for posting that figure... :) What a marvelous event to watch. When I saw that the fractions were 23 and 46+ and he was moving along so fluidly and with that seeming effortlessness that he exhibits in that wonderful way of going of his, well, it was just beyond words. It truly gave me goosebumps. What an incredible gift this horse is all the way around. I believe that it was simply a blessing for everyone just getting to see him perform again.

WOW!!! :) A totally Resounding "WOW" is all that I can say. :)

[rastajenk]

He cut back to a 13.5 second final eighth after doing sub 12 sec/f's on the first lap. No reason to think he couldn't done another 12 second closer and gotten into Spend A Buck territory track record-wise.

[Grits]

Possible to post the internal breakdown of the figures, too?

[cj]

1/4 159
1/2 156
3/4 145
1m 134
Fin 127

American Pharoah 131
Keen Ice 125
Upstart 124

I'm curious what EMD4ME thinks of him now. That isn't to bust balls, I respect his opinion. But the horse was in traffic through hot fractions and won with disdainful ease. I'm not sure what else he could do.

[lamboguy]

i am going to go one step further with this horse. the day before the HASKEL AMERICAN PHOROAH galloped 2 miles pretty strongly. i am not questioning Bob Baffert, all you have to do is look at his record and it will prove he knows 100 times more that myself. so i asked someone and that works for him and he told me that is the way he trains that horse.

the training the day before the race probably toughens up the horse but also might take a little bit of speed away.

he didn't have the easiest trip, but it still looked like he did it effortlessly.

i never like to compare horses in the past to the present because there are always different circumstances involved in the way they ran. but if you did, you have to put that performance yesterday along with the horses that have been considered great in the past.

we don't have that many races left with this guy, but i think the best is yet to come from him.

[Robert Fischer]

Fastest figure of the year for all horses, fastest 3yo since Rachel Alexandra ran a 136 in the Haskell. Could he have topped that if asked to run? I think so, probably a 140 horse in my opinion.


Awesome. Thanks CJ, love seeing the timeformus for the top horses.

[Tom]

This guy seems to thrive on hard work.
Four more races this year would seem to be well within his capabilities.
Really, who is out there to run against going long?

[PaceAdvantage]

I hate to see a jock gear down a horse that much in the stretch...other than that, easy win...but Keen Ice got way too close and was actually giving me some hope for a second there... :lol:

[cj]

I hate to see a jock gear down a horse that much in the stretch...other than that, easy win...but Keen Ice got way too close and was actually giving me some hope for a second there... :lol:

I agree...what is the point? I'm not saying scrub on the horse, but just let him finish on his own.

I thought this was a cool comparison:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CLeDsssWcAA4sxr.jpg

[rastajenk]

Espinoza gave the Phans a longer photo opportunity, I guess, but I doubt if that's what he had in mind.

[Grits]

1/4 159
1/2 156
3/4 145
1m 134
Fin 127

American Pharoah 131
Keen Ice 125
Upstart 124

I'm curious what EMD4ME thinks of him now. That isn't to bust balls, I respect his opinion. But the horse was in traffic through hot fractions and won with disdainful ease. I'm not sure what else he could do.

Now the picture's complete with the internal #s.

... As for EMD? If he's a wise man, he'll eat crow with a great deal of grace. Like I'm doing, following our testy discussion a month or so ago. Granted, I'm following your lead, (if you don't fly stupid with "I told you so".) He's incredible!! Still, he's got to win 'em all before he retires. Too, "we (as you said in the beginning) shouldn't compare across eras"--I remember your saying this, so be careful throwing up photos of he and Red. ;)

What I really liked yesterday? Elsie's, on the money, observation:

"If he had a tail he'd be wagging it!" :lol:

[EMD4ME]

1/4 159
1/2 156
3/4 145
1m 134
Fin 127

American Pharoah 131
Keen Ice 125
Upstart 124

I'm curious what EMD4ME thinks of him now. That isn't to bust balls, I respect his opinion. But the horse was in traffic through hot fractions and won with disdainful ease. I'm not sure what else he could do.

That effort at Monmouth made me respect him and like him a whole lot more. It was to say the least impressive visually.

To me, it was his best race of his life. Better then the Derby, Preakness or the Belmont. As I've stated many times before, none of those races were truly once in a lifetime awesome to me. The Haskell was awesome, really awesome.

I want to see what Competitive Edge and Upstart do in their next starts as that will tell more. I don't really care what Keen Ice does in his next as I never count what a suck up does (in comparison to the winner's effort). Keen Ice was gaining on a foe who was geared down at the 3/16's.......

I never said I hated AP. I said I wasn't wowed by him yet. He gave me a good WOW Sunday.

I honestly do hope he comes to the SPA and gives me a MAJOR wow there against a field that pushes him a bit so we can see just how awesome this horse can be.

[PaceAdvantage]

Surprised EMD thought of the Haskell like that. I truly expected him to come here and say easy race against a bunch of tomato cans..."just like I predicted."

What was so awesome about the Haskell? Compared to say...the Belmont Stakes, with all the pressure for the Triple Crown (his connections more so than the horse obviously), AND the 1 1/2 mile distance...the fast final Belmont time...the quick and steady internal fractions...

Yeah, he had the lead and had it his own way in the Belmont...

But how was everything pretty much NOT his own way in the Haskell? Except he didn't have the lead...but he's NOT a need-to-lead type anyway?

It was a cakewalk in the Haskell...a much less WOW of a performance than the Belmont, where AT LEAST he had to go a distance that probably was not exactly his best...

Curious to know what the Beyer was...I haven't read all the other threads on the board yet so maybe someone posted elsewhere...

[cj]

That effort at Monmouth made me respect him and like him a whole lot more. It was to say the least impressive visually.

To me, it was his best race of his life. Better then the Derby, Preakness or the Belmont. As I've stated many times before, none of those races were truly once in a lifetime awesome to me. The Haskell was awesome, really awesome.

I want to see what Competitive Edge and Upstart do in their next starts as that will tell more. I don't really care what Keen Ice does in his next as I never count what a suck up does (in comparison to the winner's effort). Keen Ice was gaining on a foe who was geared down at the 3/16's.......

I never said I hated AP. I said I wasn't wowed by him yet. He gave me a good WOW Sunday.

I honestly do hope he comes to the SPA and gives me a MAJOR wow there against a field that pushes him a bit so we can see just how awesome this horse can be.

Thanks for the reply. I know you never said you hated him or anything like that.

[cj]

Now the picture's complete with the internal #s.

... As for EMD? If he's a wise man, he'll eat crow with a great deal of grace. Like I'm doing, following our testy discussion a month or so ago. Granted, I'm following your lead, (if you don't fly stupid with "I told you so".) He's incredible!! Still, he's got to win 'em all before he retires. Too, "we (as you said in the beginning) shouldn't compare across eras"--I remember your saying this, so be careful throwing up photos of he and Red. ;)

What I really liked yesterday? Elsie's, on the money, observation:

"If he had a tail he'd be wagging it!" :lol:

I really don't know what that photo means, just thought it was neat to see.

I don't compare times across eras, but nothing wrong with comparing accomplishments. I think that is one way to judge, the other being dominance over contemporaries.

[cj]

Surprised EMD thought of the Haskell like that. I truly expected him to come here and say easy race against a bunch of tomato cans..."just like I predicted."

What was so awesome about the Haskell? Compared to say...the Belmont Stakes, with all the pressure for the Triple Crown (his connections more so than the horse obviously), AND the 1 1/2 mile distance...the fast final Belmont time...the quick and steady internal fractions...

Yeah, he had the lead and had it his own way in the Belmont...

But how was everything pretty much NOT his own way in the Haskell? Except he didn't have the lead...but he's NOT a need-to-lead type anyway?

It was a cakewalk in the Haskell...a much less WOW of a performance than the Belmont, where AT LEAST he had to go a distance that probably was not exactly his best...

Curious to know what the Beyer was...I haven't read all the other threads on the board yet so maybe someone posted elsewhere...

I think watching the other jockeys trying to pressure American Pharoah tells the real story of the Haskell. Horses were being asked early and often to take it to him. One by one each fell by the wayside as Espinoza just sat chilly. Nothing phased him---the fast times, the other horses, being between horses, etc. It was a huge effort in my opinion. I realize Mr. Jordan isn't a top level horse, but he was won five of six and is no slouch. He couldn't make it half way down the backstretch before retreating.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't know...I expected exactly what I saw unfold in the Haskell pace-wise (using your figures)...so I guess that's maybe why I'm not so bowled over by it...

I was much more impressed with his Belmont...

[cj]

I don't know...I expected exactly what I saw unfold in the Haskell pace-wise (using your figures)...so I guess that's maybe why I'm not so bowled over by it...

I was much more impressed with his Belmont...

I understand, I just can't remember seeing a horse going that fast early without being asked at all...and then he just kept going.

[PaceAdvantage]

He never had to work in the Haskell at all...at least the 1.5 miles was something to overcome in the Belmont.

He's not a need-to-lead, so sitting off Competitive Edge the whole way and waltzing home isn't exactly overcoming a lot... :lol:

[EMD4ME]

Thanks for the reply. I know you never said you hated him or anything like that.

I guess this is a reply to your post CJ and PA's prior post (about what he expected me to say after the Haskell).

I always speak the truth, at least my truth (LOL) and I really have zero ego in this game. I do really try to work like spock when I handicap and not bet with heart.

In looking back at his races, I do stand by what i said and here's why.

When a great horse gets the lead and crawls for 85% of the race and then sprints home, his AWESOMENESS can be lost in a trip like that because the horse isn't put to the test. (Oaklawn Handicap, Belmont Stakes).

All of us here have seen many average horses look fantastic in that scenario (loose and comfortable for 85% of the trip and sprint home).

The Preakness again was a race where you can't say with true affirmity that it was awesome as Mr.Z (Mr. No one really) breathed on him for 1/4 mile and floundered, Tale of Verve is a pig and the variant was unknown due to the hurricane. NO KNOCK on AP for that. Just saying that circumstances kind of prevented this excellent horse from being put up against the mettle and in turn him having the chance to come out looking amazing (Like Secretariat did in his Belmont being pushed by Sham early).

The Haskell was a bit different to me as:

1) Edge took the lead and AP had Jordan to his outside kind of annoying him. Not an easy pace scenario. Not terribly hard but not easy.
2) He jogged by Edge (better than he did VS. Firing Line and his emate in the Derby, which had a slow ending while AP was all out)
3) He was geared down from the 3/16's. Not the 1/16 pole, the 3/16's. That was awesome!

Finally. For the record, I hate stubborn people, so I take pride in NOT being stubborn.

Of course I'll give credit where credit is due. To not do that would only make me an ASS, no one else.

[cj]

I hear ya, I kept trying to beat Zenyatta and even when she lost I didn't get the winner.

[EMD4ME]

I hear ya, I kept trying to beat Zenyatta and even when she lost I didn't get the winner.

I don't really play Cali racing much, kept hearing about her and watched without betting. God I hated that Poly crap. Not to red board but I was a huge Blame fan all year and thankfully I was on Blame.

I won't lie and I'll say it right now. If AP gets to the Classic, I might just be on Tonalist or Honor Code in an Exacta Box with AP heavily cold. More than likely Tonalist if there is a full field of speeds, stalkers and Honor Code is in their as well.

However, without looking at the possible entries, I don't see AP losing the Classic for 1 important reason. There won't be any other Baffert entries in the BCC. So, we have Shared Belief out, C Chrome out, Wise Dan out, all Baffert possibilities out. There might just be a short field in the BCC. That is depressing me right now. Might be a cold AP Tonalist one way punch.

[cj]

I put this on Twitter...

Full @TimeformUS Speed Figure for AP was 131.25. A beaten length is worth 1.31 at 9f on dirt--leaving speculation of "coulda ran" to others.

[Grits]

Mr.Jordan did well to go in a straight line and back up as opposed to going sideways, jeopardizing other horses. I'm sorry, he was nothing.

[EMD4ME]

Mr.Jordan did well to go in a straight line and back up as opposed to going sideways, jeopardizing other horses. I'm sorry, he was nothing.

Grits are you demeaning his win yesterday because Mr. Jordan was nothing? Or you saying the opposite, that AP burnt him to toast?

Not being sarcastic, just trying to see your point.

[Grits]

Grits are you demeaning his win yesterday because Mr. Jordan was nothing? Or you saying the opposite, that AP burnt him to toast?

Not being sarcastic, just trying to see your point.

Goodness no. Not demeaning in any way. Mr.Jordan folded early. Too, they showed on tape his severe bolting problems. Unbelievable. It made me wish, prior to the start ... that he wasn't in the race.

[TravisVOX]

I was on Twitter this AM applauding how his rivals actually raced him yesterday and by doing so it allows us to appreciate good performances more while also satisfying horse player curiosity.

Not that what I think matters for much, but I was far more satisfied/impressed by what he did yesterday than his cupcake lead in the Belmont Stakes. And to think, he smacked those horses around yesterday AFTER having won the Triple Crown.

[thaskalos]

American Pharoah 131
Keen Ice 125
Upstart 124

I'm curious what EMD4ME thinks of him now. That isn't to bust balls, I respect his opinion. But the horse was in traffic through hot fractions and won with disdainful ease. I'm not sure what else he could do.
The horse can only beat the competition that they place around him, so, I can't harp too much about the quality of the field that American Pharoah demolished yesterday. The older horse division is in shambles this year...and we all know that. The 131 speed figure surprises me though...and I wonder where Keen Ice's 125 rates among the speed figures registered this year.

[rastajenk]

Right now, Daily Racing Form (http://www1.drf.com/stakeresults/drfStakeResults.jsp) shows a 109 Beyer.

I like Travis' comments, but I think there are some who still won't be satisfied 'til he beats older going a mile on the turf spotting the others 10-20 pounds.

You know you're Out There!

:D

[cj]

The horse can only beat the competition that they place around him, so, I can't harp too much about the quality of the field that American Pharoah demolished yesterday. The older horse division is in shambles this year...and we all know that. The 131 speed figure surprises me though...and I wonder where Keen Ice's 125 rates among the speed figures registered this year.

The 128 is average for a G1 for older horses. The best older horses usually hit the 130s.

The best older horses to run lately have been in the 127-128 range in routes, not a strong group. Like I said, most years that is average or below and those are the best so far.

[EMD4ME]

Goodness no. Not demeaning in any way. Mr.Jordan folded early. Too, they showed on tape his severe bolting problems. Unbelievable. It made me wish, prior to the start ... that he wasn't in the race.

Thank you. Sometimes you can't definitively interpret what someone means on the web. Thanks for clarifying.

[EMD4ME]

I was on Twitter this AM applauding how his rivals actually raced him yesterday and by doing so it allows us to appreciate good performances more while also satisfying horse player curiosity.

Not that what I think matters for much, but I was far more satisfied/impressed by what he did yesterday than his cupcake lead in the Belmont Stakes. And to think, he smacked those horses around yesterday AFTER having won the Triple Crown.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Great post Travis. I wholeheartedly agree. Liked the fact that Mikey sent. Like the fact that Jordan tried to press. Like the fact that Upstart was ridden hard in the third quarter to attack (but couldnt).

I too was more impressed with the Haskell as opposed to the boat race in the Belmont.

I want to see how well Edge and Upstart run in their next starts. That will say a lot as well.

[SuperPickle]

Surprised EMD thought of the Haskell like that. I truly expected him to come here and say easy race against a bunch of tomato cans..."just like I predicted."

What was so awesome about the Haskell? Compared to say...the Belmont Stakes, with all the pressure for the Triple Crown (his connections more so than the horse obviously), AND the 1 1/2 mile distance...the fast final Belmont time...the quick and steady internal fractions...

Yeah, he had the lead and had it his own way in the Belmont...

But how was everything pretty much NOT his own way in the Haskell? Except he didn't have the lead...but he's NOT a need-to-lead type anyway?

It was a cakewalk in the Haskell...a much less WOW of a performance than the Belmont, where AT LEAST he had to go a distance that probably was not exactly his best...

Curious to know what the Beyer was...I haven't read all the other threads on the board yet so maybe someone posted elsewhere...



I think my best answer was he "won like a 1-9 shot should."

I don't one is more impressive than the other. I think they're different. In the Belmont it was impressive to see him handle the distance, fourth race in a short time and beat horses who skipped the Preakness.

The Haskell was different. He beat nobody but Victor never hit him nor even let him run. Then he dropped the anchor in mid stretch. He still ran 8 furlongs in 1:47.4 only a second off the track record.

While the Belmont was an impressive feat the Haskell was impressive in his ease. After the race my immediate thought was will we get to see the bottom of the tank before he's retired. He ran a 109 Beyer in a literal cantor. What's the bottom look like? 120? 130? 140?

I want to see him REALLY run before he goes away.

[BlinkersOn]

AP was eased the last fg. of the Haskell. Victor never asked anything of him, or he could have won by many lengths. I saw Secretariat win the Belmont...impressive, yes. His only competition in the 4 horse field was Sham, and once he was put away, Turcotte just put on a show for the fans. He wasn't happy with just winning the race, he wanted to run Secretariat as fast as he could, and he did. It was a magnificent sight, but aside from Sham, there was no competition in that field at all. One jockey loved to showboat, and the other, Espinoza is careful. The only time he had to ask AP for anything was in the Derby, where he didn't have the best trip. Since then, the wins have been easy, and frankly the fields weak.

Until he faces some real competition in the BC Classic, we aren't going to see the horse break a sweat. I think that's when we will really get to see all AP has in the tank. I hope to see Texas Red and Honor Code there, and a great race.

Again, just thinking out louds...in words. I think he's a very special animal in a day when horses are bred for speed and not stamina.

[biggestal99]

Fastest figure of the year for all horses, fastest 3yo since Rachel Alexandra ran a 136 in the Haskell. Could he have topped that if asked to run? I think so, probably a 140 horse in my opinion.

Can i ask what was keen ice's number.

Allan

[cj]

Can i ask what was keen ice's number.

Allan

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1858837&postcount=5

[zerosky]

This is the view from the uk's racing post

Haskell win ranks as the best performance in a race restricted to three-year-olds since Frankel's 2000 Guineas romp (133).

Story here... (http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/world-class-pharoah-on-the-march-to-be-worlds-best/1927883/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews)

[cj]

This is the view from the uk's racing post

Haskell win ranks as the best performance in a race restricted to three-year-olds since Frankel's 2000 Guineas romp (133).

Story here... (http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/world-class-pharoah-on-the-march-to-be-worlds-best/1927883/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews)

Timeform rated him 136.

[OTM Al]

Timeform rated him 136.
Found an article that showed top Timeform figs of all time (does not include US except for major races. To give historical perspective, only 14 runners have ever earned a 140 or better. This goes back to the 40s. Franked tops at 147. Best US based runner is Cigar at 138. Ghostzapper, Sunday Silence and Easy Goer have 137s. That's how good they think he is.

Everyone needs to quit worrying about where he races next and just enjoy an exceptional horse. His last 3 races have been races like I have never seen.

[tucker6]

His last 3 races have been races like I have never seen.
You don't have Youtube? ;)

[nijinski]

Found an article that showed top Timeform figs of all time (does not include US except for major races. To give historical perspective, only 14 runners have ever earned a 140 or better. This goes back to the 40s. Franked tops at 147. Best US based runner is Cigar at 138. Ghostzapper, Sunday Silence and Easy Goer have 137s. That's how good they think he is.

Everyone needs to quit worrying about where he races next and just enjoy an exceptional horse. His last 3 races have been races like I have never seen.
Well said !!

[horses4courses]

Everyone needs to quit worrying about where he races next and just enjoy an exceptional horse.

I beg to differ here.
It's definitely a relevant topic of discussion.

Planning campaigns is an important part of this sport.
Obviously, the connections make the only decisions that matter.
For the layperson, it's an opportunity to express opinions.
Nothing more, nothing less.

I suppose we could ban all "armchair quarterbacking" and sit in silence.
It's apparent, though, that plenty of people enjoying giving their two cents.
Those who happen to find it tedious have plenty of other threads to enjoy.

[OTM Al]

You don't have Youtube? ;)
I guess I missed the videos of a horse taking command of 3 consecutive Gr 1 races without even being asked.

[OTM Al]

I beg to differ here.
It's definitely a relevant topic of discussion.

Planning campaigns is an important part of this sport.
Obviously, the connections make the only decisions that matter.
For the layperson, it's an opportunity to express opinions.
Nothing more, nothing less.

I suppose we could ban all "armchair quarterbacking" and sit in silence.
It's apparent, though, that plenty of people enjoying giving their two cents.
Those who happen to find it tedious have plenty of other threads to enjoy.
Differ all you want. Keep up your own planning and opining all you wish. Just saying take some time to look up and around because otherwise it will all be over before you do.

[Fager Fan]

Differ all you want. Keep up your own planning and opining all you wish. Just saying take some time to look up and around because otherwise it will all be over before you do.

Whose fault is that?

[Kash$]

I guess I missed the videos of a horse taking command of 3 consecutive Gr 1 races without even being asked.

Any of Spectacular Bids races as a four year..Carrying weight over 130

[OTM Al]

Whose fault is that?
It would be the fault of those too busy to enjoy the moment. Nothing lasts forever. We've been given what everyone has been clamoring for and despairing would never happen and now all that anyone seems to say is "what's next". We'll know in good time and get there when we get there, but the answer could always be nothing, so enjoy it while you have it.

[OTM Al]

Any of Spectacular Bids races as a four year..Carrying weight over 130
This horse is 3 and seems to still be getting better. Any better ideas?

[tucker6]

I guess I missed the videos of a horse taking command of 3 consecutive Gr 1 races without even being asked.
AP may have taken command of the last three races, but he did exactly what his jockey asked him to do. You're being too romantic about AP's performance.

[Kash$]

This horse is 3 and seems to still be getting better. Any better ideas?

We will never know he wont run as a 4 year old..So its pointless.

[Tor Ekman]

It would be the fault of those too busy to enjoy the moment. Nothing lasts forever. We've been given what everyone has been clamoring for and despairing would never happen and now all that anyone seems to say is "what's next". We'll know in good time and get there when we get there, but the answer could always be nothing, so enjoy it while you have it.
Well said :ThmbUp:

[castaway01]

It would be the fault of those too busy to enjoy the moment. Nothing lasts forever. We've been given what everyone has been clamoring for and despairing would never happen and now all that anyone seems to say is "what's next". We'll know in good time and get there when we get there, but the answer could always be nothing, so enjoy it while you have it.

I agree with you. I can't go so far as to say I've never seen efforts like these before (maybe not all from one horse), but whether he's a great or an all-time great is still to be determined. I'm just enjoying seeing a horse at the top of his game and wondering what he can do for an encore.

[rastajenk]

He keeps people talking. That's a plus factor. :ThmbUp:

[OTM Al]

AP may have taken command of the last three races, but he did exactly what his jockey asked him to do. You're being too romantic about AP's performance.

Nothing romantic about it. Watching with a technical eye. All you need to see it the jock not moving and the horse moving away on its own, ears up and galloping. When he turned into the stretch the last 3 he wasn't even running yet. In the last he never did. There are quality horses in his group and he beat them at a gallop. That's all I see. Can't say I even particularly like him like I have some others but I have to respect the hell out of what he has done. If I was breeding horses though, I'd be going to his sire to try to make another one of him.

[reckless]

First of all, a thanks to CJ for providing the TimeForm figs for us.

I am of the following opinions:

The 3YO crop is rather weak. Yes, at times, Texas Red, Dortmund and Firing Line have raced brilliantly. But to me, the crop ranges from average to mediocre to piss-poor.

Still, American Pharoah's performances winning the Triple Crown and The Haskell should never be discounted to say the least.

I hope American Pharoah runs in the Travers to face Texas Red and Upstart. I was visually impressed with Texas Red in the Jim Dandy in that he might have been forced to lay closer to the early pace than where he is most comfortable. Still, Texas Red was able to finish strongly. I like him a lot and I think Keith Desormeaux is great too.

I think Texas Red is on the upswing so I expect (and hope) a much better and improved effort in the Travers. He just might make AP 'run' this time.

What can I say about the Haskell?

At worst, the race was a breakthrough effort by AP -- he entered a much higher plane on Sunday, both by winning in the way he did it and the time. At best, he is now entering the elevated road of being compared to some of the all-time greats.

I mean, as we all know, American Pharoah went 9 furlongs while in an open gallop, and he went :23.22 :46.14 1:09.60 1:34.44 1:47.95 !

Not a phony fraction in the race.

I am not a fan of Keen Ice yet I guess both he and Upstart probably ran all-time bests in the Haskell. This is one of the few flaws in doing performance figures: too many horses suck into high numbers due to big efforts earned by the winner. They get high figs despite not doing any real running themselves.

At this time, it looks like only Texas Red has a modest chance of beating American Pharoah, either at Spa, or any place else. No other horse seems capable of coming close to him.

[PaceAdvantage]

I agree with you. I can't go so far as to say I've never seen efforts like these before (maybe not all from one horse), but whether he's a great or an all-time great is still to be determined. I'm just enjoying seeing a horse at the top of his game and wondering what he can do for an encore.Me too...this horse is indeed something special. He's scared me from day 1, but I've always bet against... :lol:

But I respect the hell out of him, and enjoy debating as well as taking it all in...

[Broad Brush]

I agree...what is the point? I'm not saying scrub on the horse, but just let him finish on his own.

I thought this was a cool comparison:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CLeDsssWcAA4sxr.jpg


I am not knowledgeable at all on a horse's stride. But, it seemed to me
that coming down the stretch AP's legs were moving back and forth a lot
slower than the other horses. This tells me he covers a lot more ground
per stride than the others.

While I never bet favorites, I really do hope he crushes everything in his path.

[CosmicWon]

I am not knowledgeable at all on a horse's stride. But, it seemed to me
that coming down the stretch AP's legs were moving back and forth a lot
slower than the other horses. This tells me he covers a lot more ground
per stride than the others.

While I never bet favorites, I really do hope he crushes everything in his path.

Not to say AP's stride isn't fantastic but that "diagram" has at least two things misleading about it:
1) the horses are clearly measured using different legs with Secretariat on his outside lead with right front and hind moving in opposition while AP is at a point in his stride where the angle is placed on left front and right hind.
2) Notice the fulcrum in both pictures--it starts in space above AP while it's directly on Big Red's saddle towel.

Now I'm surely not about to I grab my protractor and measure this hot mess diagram, but I've never read one study that validates the assumption that stride length equates to "fastness" in regards to biomechanics. If that was the case, Yao Ming would be a sub-4:00 mile superstar instead of a lumbering, fragile low post.

The stride length on this future HoFer isn't too shabby either:
http://isportsweb.com/wp-content/uploads//2013/04/WiseDan1_kee_.jpg

[cj]

Honor Code ran a 125 today, Liam's Map a 130 in defeat, Tonalist a 123.

[davew]

Me too...this horse is indeed something special. He's scared me from day 1, but I've always bet against... :lol:

But I respect the hell out of him, and enjoy debating as well as taking it all in...

I think everyone feels AP is a special horse. When he has decent competition and goes off at 1/9, that is probably an underlay and value can be found elsewhere.

It is hard to tell how much more he could give if he really needed too. We have seen him give a quick spurt and then coast a few times now.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Honor Code ran a 125 today, Liam's Map a 130 in defeat, Tonalist a 123.

Seems fair.

LM did all the work today and ran an absolute MONSTER. Hope he comes out of it solid and can run at least one before the Classic.

[cj]

Honor Code ran a 125 today, Liam's Map a 130 in defeat, Tonalist a 123.

Keep in mind all these figures are for the weight carried today. They will all take a hit in the BC Classic while American Pharoah will not. He carried 122, same as Classic, in the Haskell. The top 3 in the Whitney would be +2, +9, and +2 when required to tote 126.

[Chaka26]

Keep in mind all these figures are for the weight carried today. They will all take a hit in the BC Classic while American Pharoah will not. He carried 122, same as Classic, in the Haskell. The top 3 in the Whitney would be +2, +9, and +2 when required to tote 126.

im only a couple years into learning handicapping but wouldnt the weights of the horses relative to what they are carrying extra mean more than just extra weight on its own? plus some of the pics i see of exercise riders look like they easily weigh in 130's

so its +2 +2 +9 but in a 10 horse field what would be a typical range of weight for horses entered? numbers i keep hearing they are 1000 pound animals but they obviously dont all weigh exactly the same

seems the 9 lb should affect a cheap claimer more than a superior athletic G1 horse but give my scenario if the 3 horses in question weights ranged from 1010-1055-1090...in my example i believe the 9 lbs should in theory affect the lighter horse more than if the heaviest horse carried the +9
im sure some will argue the most weight slows you down but i agree only if every horse would be exactly the same weight, strength, speed etc. like a controlled experiment. race horses dont fall into that category




i get the argument that 9 lbs is 5% more on top but the bottom line is the horse still has to carry their own weight so in reality the horse plus load weight only increases fraction of a percent


my question to the trainers is you know you have to add the 9 lbs for a race couple months out do you compensate by training/feeding to shave weight off the horse to counter the increase or try to build more stamina? or change nothing and let the horse take care of business?

since i dont know any of these horses weights,heres best analogy i can counter the lighter equal faster arguement
tom brady weighs 225 runs 5.28 40 time
manning weighs 235 runs 4.8
defensive lineman ndamokung suh weighs 307 pounds and runs 4.98

add a small person to each of their backs and suh will probably beat manning and likely extends his time difference over brady suh shape strength and size can handle the weight the other two are not built like him

tonalist and commissioner carried 10 and 9 more pounds than their Peter Pan race which was i believe 3/8 shorter and finished 1-2 in the belmont photo finish

danza was another horse whom i believe carried 8 more in the derby and finished third but was more from trip than weight

[thaskalos]

im only a couple years into learning handicapping but wouldnt the weights of the horses relative to what they are carrying extra mean more than just extra weight on its own? plus some of the pics i see of exercise riders look like they easily weigh in 130's

so its +2 +2 +9 but in a 10 horse field what would be a typical range of weight for horses entered? numbers i keep hearing they are 1000 pound animals but they obviously dont all weigh exactly the same

seems the 9 lb should affect a cheap claimer more than a superior athletic G1 horse but give my scenario if the 3 horses in question weights ranged from 1010-1055-1090...in my example i believe the 9 lbs should in theory affect the lighter horse more than if the heaviest horse carried the +9
im sure some will argue the most weight slows you down but i agree only if every horse would be exactly the same weight, strength, speed etc. like a controlled experiment. race horses dont fall into that category




i get the argument that 9 lbs is 5% more on top but the bottom line is the horse still has to carry their own weight so in reality the horse plus load weight only increases fraction of a percent


my question to the trainers is you know you have to add the 9 lbs for a race couple months out do you compensate by training/feeding to shave weight off the horse to counter the increase or try to build more stamina? or change nothing and let the horse take care of business?

since i dont know any of these horses weights,heres best analogy i can counter the lighter equal faster arguement
tom brady weighs 225 runs 5.28 40 time
manning weighs 235 runs 4.8
defensive lineman ndamokung suh weighs 307 pounds and runs 4.98

add a small person to each of their backs and suh will probably beat manning and likely extends his time difference over brady suh shape strength and size can handle the weight the other two are not built like him

tonalist and commissioner carried 10 and 9 more pounds than their Peter Pan race which was i believe 3/8 shorter and finished 1-2 in the belmont photo finish

danza was another horse whom i believe carried 8 more in the derby and finished third but was more from trip than weight
After Andy Beyer consulted the massive DRF database in search of an answer to the nagging question concerning weight...he offered the following advice:

"Subtract four-tenths of a point from a horse's prior Beyer figure for each additional pound that he is carrying today, and add four-tenths of a point per pound if he is carrying less weight."

[Chaka26]

Just saw an ad on tvg for nanoflex horse shoes claiming to increase speed by 2 seconds lol

[Grits]

Welcome to Pace Advantage, Chaka.

Ruffin1 will be able to add to your question as well as what Thask has written.

I don't recall conditioners training horses to LOSE weight in order to win. Its hard enough keeping weight on them. Ruffian will know. ;)

[outofthebox]

im only a couple years into learning handicapping but wouldnt the weights of the horses relative to what they are carrying extra mean more than just extra weight on its own? plus some of the pics i see of exercise riders look like they easily weigh in 130's

so its +2 +2 +9 but in a 10 horse field what would be a typical range of weight for horses entered? numbers i keep hearing they are 1000 pound animals but they obviously dont all weigh exactly the same

seems the 9 lb should affect a cheap claimer more than a superior athletic G1 horse but give my scenario if the 3 horses in question weights ranged from 1010-1055-1090...in my example i believe the 9 lbs should in theory affect the lighter horse more than if the heaviest horse carried the +9
im sure some will argue the most weight slows you down but i agree only if every horse would be exactly the same weight, strength, speed etc. like a controlled experiment. race horses dont fall into that category




i get the argument that 9 lbs is 5% more on top but the bottom line is the horse still has to carry their own weight so in reality the horse plus load weight only increases fraction of a percent


my question to the trainers is you know you have to add the 9 lbs for a race couple months out do you compensate by training/feeding to shave weight off the horse to counter the increase or try to build more stamina? or change nothing and let the horse take care of business?

since i dont know any of these horses weights,heres best analogy i can counter the lighter equal faster arguement
tom brady weighs 225 runs 5.28 40 time
manning weighs 235 runs 4.8
defensive lineman ndamokung suh weighs 307 pounds and runs 4.98

add a small person to each of their backs and suh will probably beat manning and likely extends his time difference over brady suh shape strength and size can handle the weight the other two are not built like him

tonalist and commissioner carried 10 and 9 more pounds than their Peter Pan race which was i believe 3/8 shorter and finished 1-2 in the belmont photo finish

danza was another horse whom i believe carried 8 more in the derby and finished third but was more from trip than weightYou don't change a horses diet to compensate weight allowances in races. Naturally if you feel your horse is heavy or light you can adjust your training and feed. Interesting enough is i have a horse running Wed night at EVD that is dropping 11 lbs in weight running against the same field of horses minus a dropper. Be interesting to see if the big weight drop can move him up a bit. He's going to need it...

[Ruffian1]

im only a couple years into learning handicapping but wouldnt the weights of the horses relative to what they are carrying extra mean more than just extra weight on its own? plus some of the pics i see of exercise riders look like they easily weigh in 130's

so its +2 +2 +9 but in a 10 horse field what would be a typical range of weight for horses entered? numbers i keep hearing they are 1000 pound animals but they obviously dont all weigh exactly the same

seems the 9 lb should affect a cheap claimer more than a superior athletic G1 horse but give my scenario if the 3 horses in question weights ranged from 1010-1055-1090...in my example i believe the 9 lbs should in theory affect the lighter horse more than if the heaviest horse carried the +9
im sure some will argue the most weight slows you down but i agree only if every horse would be exactly the same weight, strength, speed etc. like a controlled experiment. race horses dont fall into that category




i get the argument that 9 lbs is 5% more on top but the bottom line is the horse still has to carry their own weight so in reality the horse plus load weight only increases fraction of a percent


my question to the trainers is you know you have to add the 9 lbs for a race couple months out do you compensate by training/feeding to shave weight off the horse to counter the increase or try to build more stamina? or change nothing and let the horse take care of business?

since i dont know any of these horses weights,heres best analogy i can counter the lighter equal faster arguement
tom brady weighs 225 runs 5.28 40 time
manning weighs 235 runs 4.8
defensive lineman ndamokung suh weighs 307 pounds and runs 4.98

add a small person to each of their backs and suh will probably beat manning and likely extends his time difference over brady suh shape strength and size can handle the weight the other two are not built like him

tonalist and commissioner carried 10 and 9 more pounds than their Peter Pan race which was i believe 3/8 shorter and finished 1-2 in the belmont photo finish

danza was another horse whom i believe carried 8 more in the derby and finished third but was more from trip than weight

I do not know of any trainers that wanted or tried to have their horse lose weight to compensate for carrying more weight in a race. I know I did not. Keeping these elite horses carrying body weight is really important. Most are larger and stronger size wise than the type of claimers you suggested.
With those elite horses, you know going in that carrying weight is part of the deal. It's a given. But most importantly, body weight is all over and it is the horses balanced mass. What we are dealing with when it comes to carrying more weight than another horse is dead weight. A totally different thing IMO. Lead weights that are dead weight are not equal a horse carrying a few more pounds of body weight from one race to the next.

With claimers, you have options. You can buy weight off by entering for a lesser claiming price when it is offered. In Md., you could run for 5k and carry an amount or you could run for 4,750 and buy 3 lbs. off. I always thought that was the best deal in town and did it often when coming back off a win and forced to carry 122 or 119, so it became 119 or 116 depending on how the condition was written.. Other races were 1 lb. for every 1k down to a total of 2lbs. off , like a 12k down to 10k type race. I did not like that as much but fooling around with the claiming price was a solid deterrent to others that were looking to claim the horse. Messing with there minds was half the fun in the claiming game. I would mix it up with that sometimes just to keep them guessing.
Still another was to ride a bug rider and get 5 lbs. off, or 7lbs. off but the difference between 5 and 7 lbs. was usually not worth the gamble of riding the inexperienced rider. 7lbs. is from winner 5 through 35(pretty sure), then 5 lbs. until the year is up which starts as of the 5th win. Using a rider with 10 lbs. off was rarely worth it.
In my day, Md. was a hot bed for apprentice riders so you could imagine the double pleasure of getting 5 lbs. off and a future HOFer or at least a leading rider of the meet.

Hope that helps.

[cj]

im only a couple years into learning handicapping but wouldnt the weights of the horses relative to what they are carrying extra mean more than just extra weight on its own? plus some of the pics i see of exercise riders look like they easily weigh in 130's


No, we don't know the weight of the horses. I have no doubt that weight changes effect horses differently. I also know this is something I can't measure precisely. That said, I'd still rather do the best I can trying to account for weight than pretending it doesn't matter.

There are plenty of studies out there and lots to read on the effect of weight if you are interested in the topic.

[cj]

After Andy Beyer consulted the massive DRF database in search of an answer to the nagging question concerning weight...he offered the following advice:

"Subtract four-tenths of a point from a horse's prior Beyer figure for each additional pound that he is carrying today, and add four-tenths of a point per pound if he is carrying less weight."

I'm not sure if my math agrees exactly with his, but that would certainly indicate that adding 9 pounds would be a pretty big change. 3.6 points is two lengths at 9f on Beyer's scale.

[Ruffian1]

No, we don't know the weight of the horses. I have no doubt that weight changes effect horses differently. I also know this is something I can't measure precisely. That said, I'd still rather do the best I can trying to account for weight than pretending it doesn't matter.

There are plenty of studies out there and lots to read on the effect of weight if you are interested in the topic.

The carrying of weight does indeed need some consideration and it seems that you are doing the best you can with what you have. I will say that IMO adding 6 lbs. and going from 109 to 115 is a lot less stressful than from 115 to 121.
Too me, it was like if you were lifting weights and were well within your threshold and added some weight, it was no big deal. But when we get up to a point adding slight weight can be a problem.
I guess the million dollar question is what is that threshold for race horses while competing.
I always really started to pay attention to added weight when it got to 119. From that point forward, I felt that each lb. was getting more and more critical. Jocks can help with simply a larger saddle which keeps the weight high near the withers, but once the lead pad or actual lead weights in the sleeves of the pad were laying over the withers and down around where the number on the saddle cloth is, that weight just seemed to me to be more of a burden.
Jocks could also where more clothing in the fall,winter and spring to help stay away from the lead weights. Again, the weight up high seemed to me to be easier to carry than the dreaded sagging weight around the rib cage.
I asked several jocks about this and most all agreed.
When I was a kid, we used to walk to a friends house to play poker sometimes. I would never consider a heavy coat to be a problem when walking a long ways but with a few rolls of quarters sagging in my pockets, I could really feel it. There was indeed a difference, and it was my opinion that it was the same when I trained horses. So I always preferred to have the weight carried high if I had a choice. It was one of those little things that I hoped mattered, but was never sure if it did.

[Ruffian1]

I'm not sure if my math agrees exactly with his, but that would certainly indicate that adding 9 pounds would be a pretty big change. 3.6 points is two lengths at 9f on Beyer's scale.

Kind of my point. If it was from 107 to 116 that is one thing. But 117 to 126, too me, that is a whole different ballgame.
It goes back to that area of exactly when does a lb. weigh more than an lb.?
Sounds dumb, but I assume you know what I mean.

[cj]

The carrying of weight does indeed need some consideration and it seems that you are doing the best you can with what you have. I will say that IMO adding 6 lbs. and going from 109 to 115 is a lot less stressful than from 115 to 121.


I actually use something similar to this. Any weight below 117 pounds is treated as being 117 pounds. So going from 110 to 117 causes no change in speed figures. 110 to 120 is treated as a three pound change, and so on.

I first read this in a Nick Mordin book and it held up very well in my database of North American racing.

[classhandicapper]

I still pay almost no attention to weight unless there's a huge weight shift. I find that I am virtually always confused about some very major aspect of a race that makes a couple of pounds either way seem trivial.

In most races I am unsure what the pace is going to be like, whether a bad race last out was because of an off track or because the horse went off form, whether the figure I am looking at is accurate given that several other figure makers disagree, whether a particularly tough day to decipher was biased or honest, what some horse is going to do stretching out 2F, whether a horse is dropping in class because the connections are trying to win or because something is wrong with it, how much that tough trip actually cost the horse etc...

I can't bring myself to tweak my thinking for small shifts in weight that might not matter and that will probably already be built into the odds by weight sensitive handicappers when there are major issues I often don't have a firm opinion about. It feels like noise relative to the big picture.

[cj]

I still pay almost no attention to weight unless there's a huge weight shift. I find that I am virtually always confused about some very major aspect of a race that makes a couple of pounds either way seem trivial.

In most races I am unsure what the pace is going to be like, whether a bad race last out was because of an off track or because the horse went off form, whether the figure I am looking at is accurate given that several other figure makers disagree, whether a particularly tough day to decipher was biased or honest, what some horse is going to do stretching out 2F, whether a horse is dropping in class because the connections are trying to win or because something is wrong with it, how much that tough trip actually cost the horse etc...

I can't bring myself to tweak my thinking for small shifts in weight that might not matter and that will probably already be built into the odds by weight sensitive handicappers when there are major issues I often don't have a firm opinion about. It feels like noise relative to the big picture.

I think weight is much easier to figure out than all those things above, so I do it. But with TimeformUS you don't have to use the weight adjustment, just a toggle away to ignore it. But my database says that isn't the way to go at the window.

[classhandicapper]

I think weight is much easier to figure out than all those things above, so I do it. But with TimeformUS you don't have to use the weight adjustment, just a toggle away to ignore it. But my database says that isn't the way to go at the window.

Some day when you are bored to death try a test.

Take all the second ranked horses on your figures and add a few points (maybe 3-5). Then retest the win% and ROI of the new top horses. I have no idea what the result will show. I am intellectually curious and will probably get around to testing my own data that way eventually. I suspect that when horses are very close, people tend to overbet the top figure. So anything that shifts them around a little could help ROI without hurting win% much at all.

[Robert Fischer]

I actually like to see the TimeformUS figs after big races. It reminds me of the modern day version of checking big beyers in the 1990's.

[Tom]

Yeah, Beyers are boring now - the are either 105 of 107. :rolleyes::D

[cj]

Some day when you are bored to death try a test.

Take all the second ranked horses on your figures and add a few points (maybe 3-5). Then retest the win% and ROI of the new top horses. I have no idea what the result will show. I am intellectually curious and will probably get around to testing my own data that way eventually. I suspect that when horses are very close, people tend to overbet the top figure. So anything that shifts them around a little could help ROI without hurting win% much at all.

I can tell you without even running the query it will be worse. ROI on 2nd choices is worse than top choices. Why would randomly adding points to elevate some to 1st choice make it better? I have done queries of second choices by gap from top and of course it is better the closer it is to the top rank...but it is never better.

[classhandicapper]

I can tell you without even running the query it will be worse. ROI on 2nd choices is worse than top choices. Why would randomly adding points to elevate some to 1st choice make it better? I have done queries of second choices by gap from top and of course it is better the closer it is to the top rank...but it is never better.

In the old studies I have seen, the ROI on 2nd choices was terrible against odd on favorites. Among the remainder, I've always wondered whether adding a little "fudge" to the numbers to push the rankings around just a little among very evenly matched horses would help the ROI.

Assuming some minor level in inaccuracy in all figures, I was thinking you might get a higher ROI because people might tend to overbet the top choices even when the gap is very narrow.

What I was thinking is that you may be getting better results by adding weight to the formula for a similar reason. The big weight shifts probably matter. The very small ones may be adding a kind of fudge factor that are re-ranking very similar horses towards better value.

I could easily be very wrong on this whole theory. I never tested it on any figures, let alone yours or with weight.

[cj]

132 for Liam's Map today, best in North American this year so far.

[menifee]

Am I the only one who thinks this horse is a toss in the Classic if he goes there?

I'm not sure this horse wants an extra 1/8 - he got an easy lead today against G2/G3 horses - he won't get that easy of a lead in the Classic. Plus, Pletcher never ships well into Kee. Certain underlay

[EMD4ME]

Am I the only one who thinks this horse is a toss in the Classic if he goes there?

I'm not sure this horse wants an extra 1/8 - he got an easy lead today against G2/G3 horses - he won't get that easy of a lead in the Classic. Plus, Pletcher never ships well into Kee. Certain underlay

I wouldn't bet him but to me he's the key to the pace. So, if you're an HC or Tonalist fan, he is vital to their success in the BCC.

I think this horse has a sick cruising speed AND he has the ability to FIGHT back if need be. See his GP win against Valid. He stalked a frontrunner, got by after a half, was totally bum rushed by Valid and showed a dimension I love to see in a true frontrunner, he rebuffed him big time.

I don't like how he went back to the wrong lead today nearing the wire. That concerns me, especially stretching out to 10F....His gallop out seemed very good though.

People compared AP to Coach Inge (in terms of their similar times on Belmont day-there was a huge difference in run ups which made it closer than it looked) and Liam's Map ran away from Coach Inge like he was standing still.

I don't compare horses like that but it makes you think he has a shot in the BCC.

[Zaf]

Am I the only one who thinks this horse is a toss in the Classic if he goes there?

I'm not sure this horse wants an extra 1/8 - he got an easy lead today against G2/G3 horses - he won't get that easy of a lead in the Classic. Plus, Pletcher never ships well into Kee. Certain underlay

If AP and Beholder are in the race he may be a huge overlay. Too early to tell :)

Z

[Tom]

Beyer gave him a 114.

[raybo]

Am I the only one who thinks this horse is a toss in the Classic if he goes there?

I'm not sure this horse wants an extra 1/8 - he got an easy lead today against G2/G3 horses - he won't get that easy of a lead in the Classic. Plus, Pletcher never ships well into Kee. Certain underlay

He's far from a toss (and obviously can get 1 1/4m), because anything can happen in a race, and he has speed and endurance. But, all things being equal (which they never are of course), Liam's Map will be in a much tougher race in the BCC and certainly won't get it all his own way. I'm not trying to diminish his victory yesterday (heaven forbid, I really liked this horse), that was impressive simply on time, but he'll arguably have to at least duplicate that effort in the BCC. He's duplicated or improved his previous performance with every race so far, how long can he keep doing that? He just ran his best, by far. Is that his top or does he have more to display? Those of you who are stats guys should love betting against him in the Classic!

I just think that his running style lends itself to shorter races than longer ones, and if he runs at 4 there's the distinct possibility that he can dominate at 7f to 1 1/16m, with an occasional 1 1/8m thrown in. He reminds me of Wise Dan a bit, who is certainly competitive at longer distances, so to say Liam's Map would be a toss in the BCC looks like a stretch to me.

[Robert Fischer]

He's a top contender in the Classic should he hold this form.

Up to you guys to actually go beyond that and handicap the race and decide how/if you choose to use him.

[garyscpa]

He's already four.

[pandy]

Am I the only one who thinks this horse is a toss in the Classic if he goes there?

I'm not sure this horse wants an extra 1/8 - he got an easy lead today against G2/G3 horses - he won't get that easy of a lead in the Classic. Plus, Pletcher never ships well into Kee. Certain underlay

True he got an easy lead yesterday but he was also coming back on relatively short rest off a giant effort setting a hot pace against a closer's bias. He seems like a very serious racehorse.

[raybo]

He's already four.

You're right! Just a late starter. He's 4 1/2, hope we get to see him race at 5 1/2! :ThmbUp:

[cj]

136 in the BC Classic, best TimeformUS Speed Figure of the year. Tepin had been the best before today. She also ran a 130+ again today.

[Grits]

It's good to go out at the top of the list!!! ;)