Top Horse Analytics: 08/03/2015 SAR Picks/Results

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after late changes have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- with THA payoffs (wins, verticals, horizontals) highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: DMR, GP, SAR
THA Suspended Tracks: BEL, CD, KEE
THA Inactive Tracks: AQU-I, AQU-O, GPW, OP, SA, TAM

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.15.07.23a)

Race Cancellations (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Today's Scratches And Changes (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)

Race Results
Equibase Charts (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
THA Race Results (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

08/03/15, SAR, Race 1, 1.00 ET
2 1/16M [Turf] 3.36.01 STAKES. Purse $75,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3), Double
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: Syros [2-1] Doyle J / Fisher Jack O.
094.7469 :6: Selection Sunday [3-1] McDermott S / Fisher Jack O.
091.0291 :1: African Oil (FR) [7/2] Dalton B / Dalton Kate
089.2954 :4: Balance the Budget [20-1] Nagle D / Gomena Julie
089.0512 5 Orchestra Leader [8-1] McCarthy W / Day James M.
088.9018 3 Mandola [5-1] Norris K / Sheppard Jonathan E.
087.4511 2 Cocodimama [8-1] Watts M / Gomena Julie

08/03/15, SAR, Race 2, 1.33 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.00 CLAIMING. Purse $32,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 5 Races (2-6), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: Underthemoonlight [7/5] Castellano J / Levine Bruce N.
096.9918 :8: Samus [4-1] Ortiz J L / Nevin Michelle
096.9834 :6: Nejma [5-1] Velasquez C H / Adsit Abigail C.
096.2378 :4: Lady Marlena [6-1] Carmouche K / Ryerson James T.
094.9975 2 Enduring Touch [10-1] Cancel E / Terranova. II John P.
094.7826 5 Cryptic Comet [10-1] Cruz A / Terranova. II John P.
092.8062 1 Gingee [12-1] Arroyo A S / DiSanto Glenn B.
090.6806 3 Prove It All Night [30-1] Unknown Rider / Parker Joseph G.

08/03/15, SAR, Race 3, 2.06 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $73,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (3-6), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Miss Kew [7/2] Castellano J / Maker Michael J.
099.8652 :8: Somerset Sandy [5/2] Velazquez J R / Weaver George
099.1394 :1: Celestial Sighting [5-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R.
099.0505 :4: You Look Neigh [6-1] Cruz A / Ward Wesley A.
098.8603 2 Sophia's Choice [10-1] Alvarado J / Martin Carlos F.
098.8589 3 Rescue Cat [8-1] Saez L / Weaver George
098.5389 5 Glistening [12-1] Cintron A / Lauer Michael E.
098.3306 11 Laurie's Vision [20-1] Santana. Jr. R / Hollahan Heather
098.1305 9 Alyssa and a Lisa [12-1] Hernandez R M / Contessa Gary C.
097.0243 7 Out of Nowhere [20-1] Arroyo A S / Cash Russell J.
*Scratch* 1a Flower Kisser [5-1] Arroyo A S / Rodriguez Rudy R.
*Scratch* 16 Surprise Cameo [3-1] Castellano J / Pletcher Todd A.
*Scratch* 15 Frequently [7/2] No Rider Yet / Asmussen Steven M.
*Scratch* 14 Louisville First [5-1] No Rider Yet / Weaver George
*Scratch* 13 Firestar [4-1] Lezcano J / Morley Thomas
*Scratch* 12 She's All Ready [8-1] Carmouche K / Ryerson James T.
*Scratch* 10 Night Night Kitty [20-1] Trujillo E / Mazza Joseph W.

08/03/15, SAR, Race 4, 2.39 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.00 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $73,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Euros to Dollars [4-1] Velazquez J R / Lynch Brian A.
099.9579 :4: Scorecard Harry [3-1] Lopez D M / Ferraro Michael S.
099.5521 :2: Lead by Example [5/2] Ortiz J L / Clement Christophe
099.2926 :3: Four Black Even [12-1] Saez L / Iorio. Jr. Sal
098.9119 6 My Tommy Boy [8-1] Velasquez C H / Klesaris Steve
098.8136 8 Southern Manners [10-1] Leparoux J R / O'Brien Leo
096.5632 5 Dettifoss [15-1] Hernandez R M / Brown Bruce R.
*Scratch* 7 Full of Mine [6-1] Worrie A S / Persaud Randi

08/03/15, SAR, Race 5, 3.12 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.00 CLAIMING. Purse $25,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7), Pick 6 Races (5-10) - Double
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Greek Life [3-1] Castellano J / Maker Michael J.
099.9970 :5: Time for Angie [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Gullo Gary P.
098.0529 :4: Darnley Bay [5-1] Saez L / Barker Edward R.
097.9227 :3: Darling Bridezilla [6-1] Cancel E / Falcone. Jr. Robert N.
097.3545 6 Coast of Sangria [15-1] Alvarado J / Schosberg Richard E.
097.2002 7 Liberty Fuze [6-1] Arroyo A S / Klesaris Steve
097.1441 10 Henry's Gal [8-1] Trujillo E / Rodriguez Rudy R.
095.8017 8 Ocean Boulevard [30-1] Velasquez C H / Quick Patrick J.
094.5339 9 Bella Fachi [20-1] Jara F / Terracciano Neal
*Scratch* 2 Underhill Drive [10-1] Carmouche K / Levine Bruce N.

08/03/15, SAR, Race 6, 3.45 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.03 ALLOWANCE. Purse $85,000.
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8), Grand Slam Races (6-9) - Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :10: Lost Bus [4-1] Hernandez R M / Ward Wesley A.
098.5821 :1: Hinder [7/2] Bridgmohan S / Stall. Jr. Albert M.
097.8813 :2: Clara Kelly [5-1] Castellano J / Brown Chad C.
097.3940 :6: Lady Kreesa [5-1] Ortiz J L / Donk David G.
095.6787 5 Eloquent Tribute [15-1] Alvarado J / Rodriguez Rudy R.
095.4242 7 Scatcapade [6-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Clement Christophe
094.5974 8 Orient Harbor [5-1] Rosario J / McGaughey III Claude R
093.1031 9 You Lie [20-1] Saez L / Albertrani Thomas
091.2945 4 Giant's Jewel [15-1] Leparoux J R / Bush Thomas M.
*Scratch* 3 Full of Sugar [6-1] No Rider Yet / Hennig Mark A.

08/03/15, SAR, Race 7, 4.18 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1.39.00 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $78,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (7-10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Runaway Posse [3-1] Lezcano J / Mott William I.
099.9053 :9: Storm [7/2] Castellano J / Pletcher Todd A.
098.6765 :4: Point Roll [4-1] Rosario J / Clement Christophe
097.3853 :14: Powerful Instinct [6-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Brown Chad C.
096.4085 8 Goodtolook [15-1] Alvarado J / Gargan Danny
095.1427 7 Bluegrass Flash [15-1] Ortiz J L / Clement Christophe
095.0465 10 Analysis [12-1] Lanerie C J / Weaver George
094.3996 6 Iced Over [12-1] Saez L / Lauer Michael E.
091.4227 1 Talk Therapy [20-1] Arroyo A S / Englehart Chris J.
090.5183 11 Balderdash [20-1] Velasquez C H / Feron Kathleen M.
087.1156 5 Status of Forces [50-1] Trujillo E / Torelli Stacy
*Scratch* 3 Sandyinthesun [30-1] Cancel E / Davis Robbie G.
*Scratch* 16 Force [8/5] Bridgmohan S / Casse Mark E.
*Scratch* 15 Changewilldoyagood [3-1] Rosario J / Kimmel John C.
*Scratch* 13 Hear the Footsteps [20-1] Velazquez J R / Brown Bruce R.
*Scratch* 12 Barrel of Love [5-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Balsamo Diane

08/03/15, SAR, Race 8, 4.52 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.02 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $93,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (8-10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Anchor Down [4/5] Castellano J / Pletcher Todd A.
095.7269 :2: Schivarelli [2-1] Lanerie C J / Kenneally Eddie
093.7817 :3: Green Gratto [8-1] Jara F / Grant Gaston
093.7637 :4: Integrity [10-1] Ortiz J L / Rodriguez Rudy R.
093.4158 5 Res Judicata [20-1] Carmouche K / Servis John C.
093.3162 6 Den's Legacy [15-1] Santana. Jr. R / Moquett Ron

08/03/15, SAR, Race 9, 5.26 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.03 STAKES. Purse $100,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :9: Lady Shipman [4/5] Nunez E O / O'Connell Kathleen
092.8368 :2: Miss Ella [5-1] Rosario J / Motion H. Graham
091.5089 :1: Dreamboat Annie [12-1] Velazquez J R / Gyarmati Leah
089.7597 :3: Lakeside Sunset [12-1] Castellano J / Brown Bruce R.
088.4707 4 Ancient Goddess (FR) [30-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Terranova. II John P.
087.9234 10 Manille [20-1] Cintron A / Robertson McLean
087.8458 6 Super Saks [8-1] Santana. Jr. R / Lukas D. Wayne
087.3602 8 Darling Sky [20-1] Ortiz J L / Reid. Jr. Robert E.
086.6967 5 My Cara Mia [15-1] Velasquez C H / Friedman Mitchell E.
*Scratch* 7 Ekati's Phaeton [10-1] Saez L / Mott William I.

08/03/15, SAR, Race 10, 6.00 ET
1 1/8M [Inner Turf] 1.45.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $45,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :10: Kitty Kat [3-1] Rosario J / Kimmel John C.
099.5327 :11: Accelebrate [4-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Gorham Michael E.
099.4930 :3: Sugar Mags [10-1] Velazquez J R / Donk David G.
098.7246 :6: Quiet Confidence [20-1] Cintron A / Lawrence. II James L.
098.5986 1 Saratiago [5-1] Jara F / Kelly Patrick J.
098.5306 2 Taramislew [20-1] Lopez D M / Schoeneman Jared
098.3207 5 Q T Bird [10-1] Alvarado J / Barrera. III Oscar S.
097.7975 8 Confessa [12-1] Cancel E / Toscano. Jr. John T.
097.1561 9 Esky [8-1] Ortiz J L / Bush Thomas M.
096.8356 12 La Dama de Hierro [12-1] Sullivan C / Shevy Michael J.
096.0476 4 Oakley Way [20-1] Carmouche K / Levine Bruce N.
*Scratch* 7 Justenuffdior [8-1] Castellano J / Levine Bruce N.
*Scratch* 16 Maggies Dance [10-1] Cintron A / Hobson Simon
*Scratch* 15 Millpoint Creek [8-1] Lezcano J / Dini Michael
*Scratch* 14 Justenufflaughter [5/2] Jara F / Jolley. Jr. Leroy
*Scratch* 13 Shine On Erin [30-1] Worrie A S / Persaud Randi

[Augenj]

WPS Takeout at SAR is 16%, Breakage is $0.10

08/03/15, SAR, Race 1, 1:00 ET
100.0000 :7: Syros [2-1 * ] *B* 4th
094.7469 :6: Selection Sunday [3-1] *B* 2nd - 4.90 3.70
091.0291 :1: African Oil (FR) [7/2] *B* 1st - 10.20 4.40 3.60
089.2954 :4: Balance the Budget [20-1] left prior to 9th
089.0512 5 Orchestra Leader [8-1]
088.9018 3 Mandola [5-1] 3rd - 3.60
087.4511 2 Cocodimama [8-1]

08/03/15, SAR, Race 2, 1:33 ET
100.0000 :7: Underthemoonlight [7/5 * ] JC, odds on
096.9918 :8: Samus [4-1] 3rd - 5.60
096.9834 :6: Nejma [5-1] 4th
096.2378 :4: Lady Marlena [6-1]
094.9975 2 Enduring Touch [10-1] 2nd - 13.20 9.30
094.7826 5 Cryptic Comet [10-1] 1st - 22.40 11.80 7.80
092.8062 1 Gingee [12-1] *B*
090.6806 3 Prove It All Night [30-1]

08/03/15, SAR, Race 3, 2:06 ET
100.0000 :6: Miss Kew [7/2] 3rd - 4.60
099.8652 :8: Somerset Sandy [5/2 * ] *B* 2nd - 2.90 3.00
099.1394 :1: Celestial Sighting [5-1] 1st - 7.80 4.30 3.30
099.0505 :4: You Look Neigh [6-1]
098.8603 2 Sophia's Choice [10-1]
098.8589 3 Rescue Cat [8-1]
098.5389 5 Glistening [12-1]
098.3306 11 Laurie's Vision [20-1]
098.1305 9 Alyssa and a Lisa [12-1] 4th
097.0243 7 Out of Nowhere [20-1] *B*
*Scratch* 1a Flower Kisser [5-1]
*Scratch* 16 Surprise Cameo [3-1]
*Scratch* 15 Frequently [7/2]
*Scratch* 14 Louisville First [5-1]
*Scratch* 13 Firestar [4-1]
*Scratch* 12 She's All Ready [8-1]
*Scratch* 10 Night Night Kitty [20-1]

08/03/15, SAR, Race 4, 2:39 ET
100.0000 :1: Euros to Dollars [4-1 * ] *B* 1st - 4.80 3.50 2.50
099.9579 :4: Scorecard Harry [3-1] 4th
099.5521 :2: Lead by Example [5/2] 3rd - 3.30
099.2926 :3: Four Black Even [12-1]
098.9119 6 My Tommy Boy [8-1] *B*
098.8136 8 Southern Manners [10-1]
096.5632 5 Dettifoss [15-1] *B* 2nd - 8.80 4.80
*Scratch* 7 Full of Mine [6-1]

08/03/15, SAR, Race 5, 3:12 ET
100.0000 :1: Greek Life [3-1] *B* 1st - 7.40 4.10 3.40
099.9970 :5: Time for Angie [7/2]
098.0529 :4: Darnley Bay [5-1]
097.9227 :3: Darling Bridezilla [6-1] 3rd - 5.00
097.3545 6 Coast of Sangria [15-1]
097.2002 7 Liberty Fuze [6-1] 4th
097.1441 10 Henry's Gal [8-1 * ] 2nd - 3.70 3.00
095.8017 8 Ocean Boulevard [30-1]
094.5339 9 Bella Fachi [20-1]
*Scratch* 2 Underhill Drive [10-1]
$2 Double 18.00

08/03/15, SAR, Race 6, 3:45 ET
100.0000 :10: Lost Bus [4-1] *B* 4th
098.5821 :1: Hinder [7/2] 1st - 16.40 7.60 5.00
097.8813 :2: Clara Kelly [5-1]
097.3940 :6: Lady Kreesa [5-1] *B*
095.6787 5 Eloquent Tribute [15-1]
095.4242 7 Scatcapade [6-1] 3rd - 3.50
094.5974 8 Orient Harbor [5-1 * ] 2nd - 4.70 3.10
093.1031 9 You Lie [20-1] *B*
091.2945 4 Giant's Jewel [15-1]
*Scratch* 3 Full of Sugar [6-1]

08/03/15, SAR, Race 7, 4:18 ET
100.0000 :2: Runaway Posse [3-1 * ] *B* 2nd - 4.10 3.30
099.9053 :9: Storm [7/2]
098.6765 :4: Point Roll [4-1] *B*
097.3853 :14: Powerful Instinct [6-1] 4th
096.4085 8 Goodtolook [15-1] 1st - 70.50 26.60 13.60
095.1427 7 Bluegrass Flash [15-1]
095.0465 10 Analysis [12-1]
094.3996 6 Iced Over [12-1] 3rd - 7.10
091.4227 1 Talk Therapy [20-1]
090.5183 11 Balderdash [20-1]
087.1156 5 Status of Forces [50-1]
*Scratch* 3 Sandyinthesun [30-1]
*Scratch* 16 Force [8/5]
*Scratch* 15 Changewilldoyagood [3-1]
*Scratch* 13 Hear the Footsteps [20-1]
*Scratch* 12 Barrel of Love [5-1]

08/03/15, SAR, Race 8, 4:52 ET
100.0000 :1: Anchor Down [4/5 * ] *B* 4th odds on, JC
095.7269 :2: Schivarelli [2-1] 3rd - 4.10
093.7817 :3: Green Gratto [8-1] 2nd - 7.30 6.30
093.7637 :4: Integrity [10-1]
093.4158 5 Res Judicata [20-1]
093.3162 6 Den's Legacy [15-1] 1st - 45.20 13.60 6.80

08/03/15, SAR, Race 9, 5:26 ET
100.0000 :9: Lady Shipman [4/5 * ] *B* 1st - 3.40 2.70 2.40
092.8368 :2: Miss Ella [5-1] 2nd - 4.50 4.40 $2 Ex 17.60
091.5089 :1: Dreamboat Annie [12-1] *B* pulled on bit to 1/8, last, (a workout, JV?)
089.7597 :3: Lakeside Sunset [12-1]
088.4707 4 Ancient Goddess (FR) [30-1] 4th
087.9234 10 Manille [20-1]
087.8458 6 Super Saks [8-1]
087.3602 8 Darling Sky [20-1] 3rd - 12.20
086.6967 5 My Cara Mia [15-1]
*Scratch* 7 Ekati's Phaeton [10-1]

08/03/15, SAR, Race 10, 6:00 ET
100.0000 :10: Kitty Kat [3-1] bumped start
099.5327 :11: Accelebrate [4-1] 1st - 12.20 6.00 4.40
099.4930 :3: Sugar Mags [10-1] *B*
098.7246 :6: Quiet Confidence [20-1]
098.5986 1 Saratiago [5-1 * ] *B* 2nd - 4.00 3.00
098.5306 2 Taramislew [20-1] *B*
098.3207 5 Q T Bird [10-1] *B*
097.7975 8 Confessa [12-1] *B* 3rd - 6.30
097.1561 9 Esky [8-1] *B*
096.8356 12 La Dama de Hierro [12-1] *B* 4th
096.0476 4 Oakley Way [20-1] *B*
*Scratch* 7 Justenuffdior [8-1]
*Scratch* 16 Maggies Dance [10-1]
*Scratch* 15 Millpoint Creek [8-1]
*Scratch* 14 Justenufflaughter [5/2]
*Scratch* 13 Shine On Erin [30-1]