flatstats
08-01-2015, 09:06 PM
The Shergar Cup is a meeting run at Ascot (GB) in August. It consists of exactly six races with four teams based on country / continent and gender all competing to win points.
So why is this worthy of notification? Because this is a meeting that demonstrates the favourite / longshot bias in it's extremity.
OK, not exactly "the favourite" specifically but the fancied runners are well underbet; resulting in a crazy situation where you can profit from backing the first three in the betting in every race.
The Races
All races are exactly 12 runner handicap races. These are the most common races in GB because we have a handicapping system where weights are based on previous performance. Punters seem to love them and bookies definitely love them because these are races where favourites tend to do worse at.
But this Shergar Cup meeting is extraordinary. It is not a low class handicap at some dog end track. This is run at Ascot in the Royal county of Berkshire.
What makes these races stand out is the fact that they have such a high media profile. Punters are swamped with betting opportunities for backing their "home team", "the girls", "the irish" ... traditional form goes totally out of the window and this amplifies the fav / longshot bias.
The Stats
Backing the first three in the betting (three horses in each twelve runner race) has returned the following results:
38 wins from 162 bets, 24% strike rate, 1.19 A/E, 17% profit
Those figures are at Bookies SP. If you did the same bet at Betfair SP (only available since 2008) you would have had a 22% profit.
Why Does This Happen?
Because the meeting is filled with media hype and pomposity. There is so much talking up of "the girls" :sleeping: or A Jockey from X country that punters tend to ignore the form and just back bland randomness, with a tendance towards the bigger prices. As bookmakers have to balance their books to make a profit they would tend to offer higher than expected odds on the fancied runners.
The meeting takes place on Saturday 8th August 2015 at Ascot. Forget form, speed figures, pace, jockey stats. Just back the first three in the betting in every race - especially if you can get Betfair odds.
So why is this worthy of notification? Because this is a meeting that demonstrates the favourite / longshot bias in it's extremity.
OK, not exactly "the favourite" specifically but the fancied runners are well underbet; resulting in a crazy situation where you can profit from backing the first three in the betting in every race.
The Races
All races are exactly 12 runner handicap races. These are the most common races in GB because we have a handicapping system where weights are based on previous performance. Punters seem to love them and bookies definitely love them because these are races where favourites tend to do worse at.
But this Shergar Cup meeting is extraordinary. It is not a low class handicap at some dog end track. This is run at Ascot in the Royal county of Berkshire.
What makes these races stand out is the fact that they have such a high media profile. Punters are swamped with betting opportunities for backing their "home team", "the girls", "the irish" ... traditional form goes totally out of the window and this amplifies the fav / longshot bias.
The Stats
Backing the first three in the betting (three horses in each twelve runner race) has returned the following results:
38 wins from 162 bets, 24% strike rate, 1.19 A/E, 17% profit
Those figures are at Bookies SP. If you did the same bet at Betfair SP (only available since 2008) you would have had a 22% profit.
Why Does This Happen?
Because the meeting is filled with media hype and pomposity. There is so much talking up of "the girls" :sleeping: or A Jockey from X country that punters tend to ignore the form and just back bland randomness, with a tendance towards the bigger prices. As bookmakers have to balance their books to make a profit they would tend to offer higher than expected odds on the fancied runners.
The meeting takes place on Saturday 8th August 2015 at Ascot. Forget form, speed figures, pace, jockey stats. Just back the first three in the betting in every race - especially if you can get Betfair odds.