Pletcher has 9 of his 11 wins on the Dirt @SAR -- he always starts well then fades!!!

[TheOracle]

This is the same thing that happened at the start of the Belmont season in June he started off on fire and then faded.

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/t pletcherdrtsar.jpg

Question is, when will he start to fade? He had 8 entries today at Saratoga 5 of which were on the Dirt where he had 3 wins and 1 place finish.

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/t pletchertdy.jpg

I guess you can beat him on the Turf but you have to consider him on the Dirt until he starts to fade.

I will watch his horses on the Dirt this season at Saratoga and see if I can beat them though it will be tough!!!

[TheOracle]

T Pletcher has these today on the Dirt:

2nd race
#10 Ready Dancer Maiden Special Weight 6 Furl

3rd race
#8 Roll Tide Roll Allowance 6 Furl

8th race
#3 Rock Fall Stakes 6 Furl

10th race
#5 Competitive Edge Stakes 1 1/18 M

I will go with him in the 2nd and 3rd race with #10 Ready Dancer and #8 Roll Tide Roll

I will try to beat him in the 8th and 10th.

[castaway01]

While I am skeptical of this method of handicapping (or whatever it is), I will point out something that will be of use to any newcomers reading this. Based on these stats, if you bet all Todd Pletcher dirt horses at Saratoga, you'd have a 224% profit. That number is headed way down. And I know that's an obvious point to anyone who understands wagering, but the big winners have already come in and you've missed the gravy train. You have to catch onto these streaks way before he's 9 for 17 if you want to make money on hot trainers.

On the other hand, you can try betting against him....but watch him grind out a bunch of 4-5 winners. He's not easy to deal with.

[TheOracle]

While I am skeptical of this method of handicapping (or whatever it is), I will point out something that will be of use to any newcomers reading this. Based on these stats, if you bet all Todd Pletcher dirt horses at Saratoga, you'd have a 224% profit. That number is headed way down. And I know that's an obvious point to anyone who understands wagering, but the big winners have already come in and you've missed the gravy train. You have to catch onto these streaks way before he's 9 for 17 if you want to make money on hot trainers.

On the other hand, you can try betting against him....but watch him grind out a bunch of 4-5 winners. He's not easy to deal with.

Hey Cast,

You are right on the button if you don't catch him early when he's hot you've missed the boat.

Then he enters 7 or 8 horses in a day and you'll get those 3/5 or 4/5 winners that don't pay much.

Also no method here just trying to catch whoever is hot at the moment in terms of a return on investment.

[TheOracle]

Since this post Pletcher's horses have hit the board only 2 times in their last 5 attempts !!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/t pletchstrkend.jpg

It looks like he is beginning to fade from the tremendous start he had over the Dirt surface at Saratoga.

However, most of the public will continue to bet his horses so now might be the time to go against him especially if he is the favorite on the Dirt.

From now on I will try to beat him on the Dirt!!

[ultracapper]

Only Todd Pletcher can shoot 40% and show a negative ROI. Well, maybe Baffert.

[TheOracle]

Only Todd Pletcher can shoot 40% and show a negative ROI. Well, maybe Baffert.


Hahahaha lol !!!

Hey Ultra you have a point there hahaha lol !!!

[TheOracle]

I tried to beat T Pletcher in a Maiden race today in the 4th at Saratoga but I couldn't do it as he ended up beating me instead and he won the race.

I then decided to take a look at his Maiden races on the Dirt and, it's astounding, as of today he has 7 wins with 9 out of 12 hitting the board!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/t pletchermdnssar.jpg


He seems to lean on J R Velazquez in this situation but today he used Javier Castellano. If I didn't know any better I would swear he did that on purpose so that any payout would be slightly higher.


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/t pletchermdnsjock.jpg


I will be paying much closer attention to his Maidens on the Dirt.

He has this Maiden entry on Friday:
Race 6
#7 Surprise Cameo

Let's see what happens!!!