Hedging Help

[arw629]

I'm live in the pick 4 to the 1,4,5 in race 5 here with some nice will pays....any strong opinions how I can hedge here? I think the main danger is the :6: and I feel that the :7: and :8: are over bet...

my original ticket was 45 bucks for 50 cents
9,13
1,3,5,8,9
2,5,6
1,4,5

[cnollfan]

Exacta 6 over 1, 4, 5

[arw629]

If anyone is wondering I hit my hedge which was 20 to win on :2: and :3:.....crazy i know

[thaskalos]

So...you were worried about the 6, and became concerned by the betting action on the 7 and the 8...but you hedged by betting the 2 and the 3.

[raybo]

The only hedges I use are loaded-up 10 cent superfectas. Can't tell you how much money this has saved me, but it is considerable, especially in the big races/cards. The cost is relatively small compared to the same coverage/protection in other bet types, and the payouts can be very large, more than enough to cover the other bet(s) I'm hedging against.

[AndyC]

The only hedges I use are loaded-up 10 cent superfectas. Can't tell you how much money this has saved me, but it is considerable, especially in the big races/cards. The cost is relatively small compared to the same coverage/protection in other bet types, and the payouts can be very large, more than enough to cover the other bet(s) I'm hedging against.

Please elaborate. What kind of bet are you hedging and what is a loaded-up superfecta?

[raybo]

Please elaborate. What kind of bet are you hedging and what is a loaded-up superfecta?

It could be any kind of bet or bets. Say a large $ base bet superfecta with a single horse on the win line, or a large pick 3 base bet with all 3 races singled, etc..

By "loaded-up" I mean more horses/combinations on the ticket, say 3 or 4 or more horses on the win line rather than 1 or 2. A loaded-up 10 cent super ticket might cost you $16, but your $2 superfecta ticket with the same number of combinations would cost you 20 times that ($320).

Sure, the payouts are lower with the dime, but over time if those smaller payouts more than coverage the costs of your "shoot for the moon" tickets that were losers, then you have saved money and added to your bottom line.

[davew]

There are a couple schools of thought on this

the first is you let the bet stand as $45 invested

I am guessing Saratoga so here are will-pays
1- $1858.75
4- $3352.75
5- $1922.00

the final closing odds are (not sure where they were when you could still make the bet)
1-8
2-16
3-21
4-6
5-6
6- 9/5
7- 5
8- 7/2

the second is to hedge and guarantee profit or get back all investment

how much more would you like to bet in your 'hedge'?
and are you trying to 1- break even if other scores or 2- maximize return if any win

is your 'hedge' going to cover every other horse, or just 'other contenders'?

my personal preference is to cover myself against everything if I am going to invest 'more' - I see how much I would need to bet to return $200 on 'losers' if the won

roughly $173 to return near $200 which doesn't cover initial bet
2-$13
3-$10
6-$70
7-$35
8-$45

double that and I need to invest another $350 on my initial $45

I would probably pass on hedging in this case
-even though 7 and 8 may be overbet, they may also win so leaving them out would cause more heartache the times they win


apparently you liked the 2 and 3 for $20 win so it worked for you

[Robert Fischer]

Happy for the OP's success.


Some good threads in the past here on hedging iirc. The search engine, or using google for some more specific search instructions works well.

some brief input: hedging is different when playing with a real bankroll, as opposed to gambling with whatever cash-in-hand you carry.
With the former, you really want to limit hedges to life-changing atypically large potential scores on your live ticket. Otherwise you are essentially sacrificing value for hit%.
For cash-in-hand gambling, frequent hedging makes more sense(your wallet money is on the line) and you can throw a couple bucks on a few contenders even when you have moderate expected will pays on your live tickets, essentially sacrificing value for hit%.

[ultracapper]

So...you were worried about the 6, and became concerned by the betting action on the 7 and the 8...but you hedged by betting the 2 and the 3.

Translation: I came on a message board bragging about being on for a P4, missed it, but because I have such "game", I still was able to "get out".


On to the next thread.

[Luckycreed]

Very good points Robert, I would only hedge in the most extreme of circumstances, it defeats the point of playing big exotics in the first place.

The money you spend hedging over time would be better invested in taking more combinations in the exotic.

Exotic pools are not as efficient as win pools, that is the main reason to play them, if you are using win betting to hedge you are investing money into a more efficient pool where value is harder to find, which is not a good thing to be doing.

[AndyC]

.....Exotic pools are not as efficient as win pools, that is the main reason to play them, if you are using win betting to hedge you are investing money into a more efficient pool where value is harder to find, which is not a good thing to be doing.

Inefficient pools can both help and hurt a bettor. How do you know which side of the inefficiency you are on when you bet?

To me the reason to play an exotic is to leverage a perceived value in a certain horse or a perceived value in betting against a certain horse.

[raybo]

Very good points Robert, I would only hedge in the most extreme of circumstances, it defeats the point of playing big exotics in the first place.

The money you spend hedging over time would be better invested in taking more combinations in the exotic.

Exotic pools are not as efficient as win pools, that is the main reason to play them, if you are using win betting to hedge you are investing money into a more efficient pool where value is harder to find, which is not a good thing to be doing.

I think it depends on what your goal is. If it is to improve your profits, and your records show that it does, then why would you do otherwise? In my personal case, one might call my win betting a hedge for my superfecta play. But, that isn't my goal. My goal is to use win betting as cash flow to support my more expensive, and more risky superfecta play. My 10 cent superfecta play is a hedge, definitely, but my records also show that those 10 centers also increase my profit, by causing me to lose less when my $2 or higher superfecta tickets don't hit. And, when I hit a larger base bet super, I also hit the 10 cent hedge bet.

[Robert Fischer]

When I used to go to the OTB with cash in wallet (this isn't all 'abstract' theories...), I would occasionally set up a hedge situation on purpose.


I did one here for fun:

Saratoga Thoroughbred 4 $1.00 P3 (PWHL) 1, 5, 6, 8 / 3, 4, 5 / 9 $12.00

LEG1 (1, 5, 6, 8,) = Deemed as a 'spread' race I used the contenders.

LEG2 (3, 4, 5) = nothing here, just the logicals

LEG3 (9) = The 'set up' leg. I singled a probable favorite. Now(because I have the favorite on my ticket) if I am alive in LEG3, I have the option of hedging with workable odds contenders.

cost for this example=$12

[Robert Fischer]

When I used to go to the OTB with cash in wallet (this isn't all 'abstract' theories...), I would occasionally set up a hedge situation on purpose.


I did one here for fun:

Saratoga Thoroughbred 4 $1.00 P3 (PWHL) 1, 5, 6, 8 / 3, 4, 5 / 9 $12.00

LEG1 (1, 5, 6, 8,) = Deemed as a 'spread' race I used the contenders.

LEG2 (3, 4, 5) = nothing here, just the logicals

LEG3 (9) = The 'set up' leg. I singled a probable favorite. Now(because I have the favorite on my ticket) if I am alive in LEG3, I have the option of hedging with workable odds contenders.

cost for this example=$12

So now in Leg3, You are alive to the 9 for a $56 willpay.

9 opens @ 2-1 favorite as we hoped.

7-5-10-3 are the obvious threats, and there is 28 minutes to figure out who if any would be considered for a hedge.

[Robert Fischer]

For my hedge, I put up $22 ($6win 3, 6. $10win 7)

[Robert Fischer]

and 4 wins at the wire

Final Step: Now that you've lost your $34, you go home and cry, but not before drunkenly swearing at the monitor and claiming that the jockeys fixed the race.

[arw629]

Translation: I came on a message board bragging about being on for a P4, missed it, but because I have such "game", I still was able to "get out".


On to the next thread.

No need for trolling dude....I wanted to hear serious responses hence the title of the thread