Question on Speed Figs

[mikesal57]

Been wanting to ask this for a long time...

Here's 2 races on the same day....
Final time is close enough to generate about the same figure...
Now if these 2 winners meet..

Which one would win?
The one which earned 100% of the final time because it wired the field or
the one that the speed collapses to get his number...

Thxs

Mike

[thaskalos]

If the two horses met in a MATCH race...then the FIRST one would win.

[mikesal57]

If the two horses met in a MATCH race...then the FIRST one would win.

I agree...the speed horse should have a 10 lt lead at the F1 call

but I'm asking the speed fig guys , do they incorporate how the race developed to get that number... ??

If you at the figure and see the class ...most with say the closer is better

mike

[AndyC]

I agree...the speed horse should have a 10 lt lead at the F1 call

but I'm asking the speed fig guys , do they incorporate how the race developed to get that number... ??

If you at the figure and see the class ...most with say the closer is better

mike

In a match race yes. Be very wary of a speed fig earned by a horse loose on the lead.

[thaskalos]

Be very wary of a speed fig earned by a horse loose on the lead.
Unless this horse figures to be loose on the lead again today. :)

[jasperson]

It depends on which one you bet on. The other horse will win.:lol:

[AndyC]

Unless this horse figures to be loose on the lead again today. :)

If that's the case I might bet against because the horse would be 2/5.

When a horse has the best early figure combined with a final number that is competitive I have found that there is little value in the odds. Obvious pace advantages are seen by any competent handicapper. Most big priced wire-to-wire winners are not easily found through figures alone.

[classhandicapper]

If that's the case I might bet against because the horse would be 2/5.

When a horse has the best early figure combined with a final number that is competitive I have found that there is little value in the odds. Obvious pace advantages are seen by any competent handicapper.

I agree.

A less obvious angle would be finding a sprint race that was loaded with early speed where a couple of horses got outrun and earned pace figures below their typical ability. Put them in a softer spot next time and it's less apparent they can shake loose.

[raybo]

Without considering form improvement or decline, and assuming the track was identical that day, and will be identical today, and not considering the difference in the two starts (5th versus 8th), the first horse ran a much better race, running better times at every call and at the finish. I doubt they would have gotten the same speed figure though (with .34 seconds difference in the final times). A wire to wire horse may be discounted if it's early pace times were slower than in another race, but in this case the first horse's pace times were faster, so he deserves to be rated higher than the second horse. He ran faster early times, and a faster final time. That means, all else being equal, he was a much better horse on that day.

[raybo]

but I'm asking the speed fig guys , do they incorporate how the race developed to get that number... ??



mike

A true "speed" figure should not include pace or how the race developed. A true "speed" figure should only include final time (with a beaten length adjustment) and a daily variant adjustment (perceived speed of the surface). However, I suspect that most of today's commercial "speed" figures include more, at least the good ones anyway.

[AndyC]

A true "speed" figure should not include pace or how the race developed. A true "speed" figure should only include final time (with a beaten length adjustment) and a daily variant adjustment (perceived speed of the surface). However, I suspect that most of today's commercial "speed" figures include more, at least the good ones anyway.

I agree but a speed figure needs to be analyzed. In my experience, the lone F winners tend to have inflated speed figs. Given 2 horses with identical figs, I prefer the horse that battled the entire race over one that ran loose on the lead.

[raybo]

I agree but a speed figure needs to be analyzed. In my experience, the lone F winners tend to have inflated speed figs. Given 2 horses with identical figs, I prefer the horse that battled the entire race over one that ran loose on the lead.

Yup, a true "speed" figure, while being better than a raw time, is still only a piece of the puzzle. Other things must be evaluated in order to use that speed figure at all.

[classhandicapper]

I prefer the horse that battled the entire race over one that ran loose on the lead.

Everyone does.

IMO, if there's any value to be found it's in identifying horses that shook loose in a slow pace that would have earned the same figure even if they were on a contested pace. Most people don't try to discriminate. They downgrade all the loose leaders. But not all horses are the same.

[CosmicWon]

A true "speed" figure should not include pace or how the race developed. A true "speed" figure should only include final time (with a beaten length adjustment) and a daily variant adjustment (perceived speed of the surface). However, I suspect that most of today's commercial "speed" figures include more, at least the good ones anyway.

I like this response and it makes sense to me as one who is mostly into Sheets (performance figs) methodology.

Think of Hard Not to Like Running down Tepin and Kitten's Dumplings last week in the G1. I've heard people lament how good a race those two place horses ran and practically no chatter applauding the effort by HNtL.

Just because you went to the lead for a long time doesn't necessarily make a performance noteworthy in my mind. Should every rabbit be applauded because s/he set fast fractions then faded in the final 3/16ths of a 12F race? Obviously no.

I thought HNtL ran terrific as she was the only mare to make up significant ground and furthermore, she won! I'm unconvinced that being fast early is more impressive than making up that much ground that quickly when the other mares up front had every chance to get it done but they didn't.

That's class--winning. And not just winning but WANTING to win. Cheap horses (even if they have pace advantages) lack the tenacity to make sure they don't lose. That's why they capitulate when looked in the eye, they're straight less competitive and hence less classy.

Sheet #s infrequently give big numbers to a horse like Commentator--who could run huge if given his head all alone, but he was notorious for needed a lone lead (even if it was a fast pace he was setting)--because of the lack of ground loss. Conversely, Beyers etc love to give gaudy #s for fast but uncontested performances solely because of the time involved.

I'll bet a fast fighter like Hard Not to Like over horses like Commentator who are fast in a vacuum every day of the week. I think your HORSE B wins the race if it's real completion (not a workout or match race) say for $7,000 CLM and the circumstances for both horses is equal (lbs, etc).