1-5 Morning Line

[PoloUK6108]

I've watched a lot of horse races, not as many as most on here but still a lot. Can't remember the last 1/5 morning line I've seen, Zenyatta maybe? It makes sense for AP, just saying you don't see it often. I've seen plenty of 1-9 shots, but I've only Heard of shorter off odds than that. If it's shorter than 1/9 does it still just show on the tote as 1/9?

[NorCalGreg]

I've watched a lot of horse races, not as many as most on here but still a lot. Can't remember the last 1/5 morning line I've seen, Zenyatta maybe? It makes sense for AP, just saying you don't see it often. I've seen plenty of 1-9 shots, but I've only Heard of shorter off odds than that. If it's shorter than 1/9 does it still just show on the tote as 1/9?

Yeah still shows 1-9, just like a longshot that might be 200-1----still shows 99-1. There was a horse July 21st at Finger Lakes (where else?) that went off @ 1-20

6 -ALCOLITE 2.10 2.10 2.10
3 -KERRY WASHINGTON 3.10 2.10
4 -LAST RUN 2.10

Good lesson in staying away from favorites, show bets, and maybe Finger Lakes altogether. Good luck Polo

[lamboguy]

if they take place and show for the Haskel, i predict that AMERICAN PHAROAH will pay $2.20 for win.

before knowing how the track will be playing that day i have fair price on him at .13 to the dollar or payoff of $2.26. if i am right, that price is a very skinny one to bet on this horse if you get a rebate.

[Elliott Sidewater]

if they take place and show for the Haskel, i predict that AMERICAN PHAROAH will pay $2.20 for win.

before knowing how the track will be playing that day i have fair price on him at .13 to the dollar or payoff of $2.26. if i am right, that price is a very skinny one to bet on this horse if you get a rebate.
Assuming you're right, American Pharoah would be a bet at one to five, and a huge overlay at 3-10 or 2-5. Will that happen?? Probably not, as Monmouth Park is too close to New York, not to mention the fact that America (finally) has a Triple Crown winner to obsess over (until he loses a race). What was the last time Pletcher had TWO 30-1 shots on the Morning Line? If it weren't for the crowds, I probably should have planned on going, as I may not live long enough to see the next Triple Crown winner.

[Overlay]

As I understand the various possible approaches to the making of the morning line, a horse being a very short price such as 1-5 (or lower) would depend somewhat on whether the linemaker was assigning odds based on personal opinion as to the horse's actual chance of winning, or instead on an estimation of how the public will bet the horse. I would think that basing it on an estimate of the public's behavior would tend to produce shorter-priced morning-line favorites.

[Redboard]

http://home.comcast.net/~galacticomm/images/ap01.jpg

[NorCalGreg]

Hard to tell, without him being all "dressed up" and all the media around...that's the most famous thouroughbred in the world. Just looks like any other horse at this moment.

[PoloUK6108]

Hard to tell, without him being all "dressed up" and all the media around...that's the most famous thouroughbred in the world. Just looks like any other horse at this moment.

I know what you mean but I wouldn't say he looks like ANY horse. He looks very well developed at 3 IMO. Eye-catching..but then, so is Dortmund. AP just looks downright stout.

[NorCalGreg]

I know what you mean but I wouldn't say he looks like ANY horse. He looks very well developed at 3 IMO. Eye-catching..but then, so is Dortmund. AP just looks downright stout.

Yeah he does...looking closely, that's one muscular looking equine athlete. Hey Redboard, nice pic. You're from Jersey and you own a camera capable of taking professional shots like that? ....and it hasn't been stolen yet? Thanks for posting :) --NCG

[davew]

if AP goes off at 1/9, then Competitive Edge and Upstart will be overlays

[cj]

if AP goes off at 1/9, then Competitive Edge and Upstart will be overlays

I'd be surprised if he goes off 1 to 9, too many people on these big days bet longshots...the Giacomo effect.

[raybo]

Hard to tell, without him being all "dressed up" and all the media around...that's the most famous thouroughbred in the world. Just looks like any other horse at this moment.

I think you need to look a little closer. Look at the musculature and definition in both the front and the rear. This is no "any other horse". This is a monster.

[raybo]

if AP goes off at 1/9, then Competitive Edge and Upstart will be overlays

An overlay is a horse that is going off at higher odds than his win probabilities suggest. What would you say the win probabilities of Competitive and Upstart are? Just looking at their odds, yes, one might think that they are overlays, but when you look at their actual probability of beating AP, not so much.

[davew]

An overlay is a horse that is going off at higher odds than his win probabilities suggest. What would you say the win probabilities of Competitive and Upstart are? Just looking at their odds, yes, one might think that they are overlays, but when you look at their actual probability of beating AP, not so much.

I have them both at 10% and AP at 65%
if AP has more than 85% of win pool, one or both of my 2nd/3rd choice will be higher than 10/1

[NorCalGreg]

I think you need to look a little closer. Look at the musculature and definition in both the front and the rear. This is no "any other horse". This is a monster.

Can you imagine if they led a 9 yr old $2k claimer up near AP, people would be shocked. "My God!! What have you done to that poor animal?" Ribs showing, old whip scars all over his hind quarters, probably a dozen other deficiencies and untreated battle wounds horse experts & Vets would be able to list---but lets hang that dentist in Minnesota. Allright...stepping down from my cosmic soapbox. Carry on.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'll be happily betting against our Triple Crown champion...again

[davew]

An overlay is a horse that is going off at higher odds than his win probabilities suggest. What would you say the win probabilities of Competitive and Upstart are? Just looking at their odds, yes, one might think that they are overlays, but when you look at their actual probability of beating AP, not so much.

What probabilities do you have those 3 at? you can add Keen Ice if you want

[raybo]

I have them both at 10% and AP at 65%
if AP has more than 85% of win pool, one or both of my 2nd/3rd choice will be higher than 10/1

So, if you give them a 10% chance of winning, aren't the odds you need for an overlay more than 9/1? AP would be about 5/9 odds at 65% probability, so at 1/5 odds he would have about an 83% probability.

[letswastemoney]

I've always noticed American Pharaoh's ribs. People let it pass because he's winning, while if it were any other horse they might point it out.

But, he's just just a fit racehorse, that's all. Some horses are just thin it seems.

[raybo]

What probabilities do you have those 3 at? you can add Keen Ice if you want

AP will probably go off at 1/5- 2/5 and I probably would assign about a 62% chance (3/5 odds). Upstart is about 10% and Keen Ice is about 10%. I think Upstart is only running in this one because of the added money for place and show. I think Keen Ice is running for place and show money also. I don't think either trainer has any confidence in beating AP.

[Rex Phinney]

I'll be happily betting against our Triple Crown champion...again

I'll be in the same boat. Good news is when you are betting against him at these odds, it will only take once....

[cj]

I'll be happily betting against our Triple Crown champion...again

You and EMD4ME! :)

[Tom]

Next!

[cj]

That was just silly. Not sure how anyone can knock this horse, could have won by as many as the rider pleased.

[VeryOldMan]

Next!
Wow. Under wraps down the stretch, looking like an easy workout. That was impressive.

As a fan of the sport, I love seeing it.

[Tall One]

Million dollar workout..left plenty in the tank for Spaaaah...if they go that route..:cool:

[Tom]

Travers?
No clue.

[cj]

He should go Woodward or Pacific Classic, but probably Travers.

[PressThePace]

Almost at a loss for words. The horse is getting better....scary.

[ArlJim78]

Time to go against older I think, the three year olds are no competition for him.
He beats them in a gallop.

[Tom]

"Bob, when did you know this race was over?"
"The minute they added the $750 thousand." :lol:

[keithw84]

Time to go against older I think, the three year olds are no competition for him.
He beats them in a gallop.

Would love to see him take on older and "toy with the best horses in the training!"

[Rex Phinney]

There is noone to race him against. I'm trying to remember the last time there was this big a drought of quality horses. Most years by this time there are late blooming 3YO's coming along or older horses really hitting their stride for the BC.

All the good ones are hurt, the only thing left is a bunch of allowance horses.

[VeryOldMan]

Time to go against older I think, the three year olds are no competition for him.
He beats them in a gallop.
Yeah - but who are the older?

Secretariat had nothing to prove, at some level, after his other-worldly Belmont. He did win in the fall. Seattle Slew showed up as a 4 year old and beat Affirmed. Affirmed showed up as a 4 year old and beat Spectacular Bid, who went on to be an absolute monster as a 4 year old. The mighty Forego took on all challengers carrying ridiculous weights.

Who is out there to test AP like these previous champions? NOT knocking AP - more musing as a fan of the sport. Who can give him the challenge like previous greats?

[depalma113]

There is noone to race him against. I'm trying to remember the last time there was this big a drought of quality horses. Most years by this time there are late blooming 3YO's coming along or older horses really hitting their stride for the BC.

All the good ones are hurt, the only thing left is a bunch of allowance horses.

There are plenty of quality horses out there. You are just looking at a freak.

[cj]

Let's see Travers / JCGC / BC Classic. What more could be asked?

[jettroofer]

OK. Breeder's Cup Classic Dream. Rank the finishers. All healthy and running well. These are just a few of the recent top horses that 'could' have faced each other at some time. How nice would that be!

AP
Palice Malice
Game on Dude
Mucho Macho Man
Cal Chrome
Shared Belief
Will Take Charge

[Rex Phinney]

There are plenty of quality horses out there. You are just looking at a freak.

Maybe he is a freak, but the fields he is beating are less than spectacular. At this point we need him involved in a real damn race. Problem is right this minute even if I could pick there isn't anyone for him to race against.

[ArlJim78]

Yeah - but who are the older?

Secretariat had nothing to prove, at some level, after his other-worldly Belmont. He did win in the fall. Seattle Slew showed up as a 4 year old and beat Affirmed. Affirmed showed up as a 4 year old and beat Spectacular Bid, who went on to be an absolute monster as a 4 year old. The mighty Forego took on all challengers carrying ridiculous weights.

Who is out there to test AP like these previous champions? NOT knocking AP - more musing as a fan of the sport. Who can give him the challenge like previous greats?
Okay granted there aren't the type of horses to challenge him like the past champions, so what should he do? retire right now? at least against older it broadens the perspective a bit. He only races once more before the BC, I just think it would be nice if it wasn't another cakewalk like today. something a bit more testing.

[RXB]

American Pharoah Aug 2 9f 1:47 4/5 B/G 1/7

[ArlJim78]

Let's see Travers / JCGC / BC Classic. What more could be asked?
I think that sequence would make perfect sense, but didn't they say he's only going to race once more before the classic? If that's true then I don't think the Travers makes sense given the timing.

[Tall One]

I think that sequence would make perfect sense, but didn't they say he's only going to race once more before the classic? If that's true then I don't think the Travers makes sense given the timing.



This is correct. They'll have to time that next race just right. Maybe they'll go through Philly to get to Lexington.

[depalma113]

Maybe he is a freak, but the fields he is beating are less than spectacular. At this point we need him involved in a real damn race. Problem is right this minute even if I could pick there isn't anyone for him to race against.

There isn't a horse that can give him a real race. He just went 1:47 4/5 after being shut down for the final eighth.

[VeryOldMan]

Okay granted there aren't the type of horses to challenge him like the past champions, so what should he do? retire right now? at least against older it broadens the perspective a bit. He only races once more before the BC, I just think it would be nice if it wasn't another cakewalk like today. something a bit more testing.
I'm not knocking him or you. Just wondering whether he can get a challenge at this point to prove his greatness like his predecessors. That's all.

[davew]

That was just silly. Not sure how anyone can knock this horse, could have won by as many as the rider pleased.


I do not think anyone is knocking this horse - but when you have a $65 million dollar stallion running, any misstep or trouble and the jockey is going to ease up and be beat.

[BlinkersOn]

The Haskell was a really close race today.....................until the starter pushed the button. I'd love to see AP break a sweat. Horses like Texas Red and Honor Code could make a race a little more exciting, but AP would still win. He might just have to work a little bit.

[raybo]

I don't think the connections will be looking for races with probable entries that will "prove his greatness". I think their priority will be getting/keeping him at peak form for the BC. The horse will tell them which race or races to run him in before the BC. I would guess the Travers (Aug 29th) if he's healthy and happy, then maybe the Penn Derby, or run the Travers and give him a break and run in the JCGC. If he skips the Travers, then the Penn Derby before the JCGC (I think the JCGC is the fine tuning prep they'll definitely want for the BC). I don't see him running 3 races before the BC. Baffert ran Bayern in the Travers and the Penn Derby, before the BC, so that is a possibility too, but I really think they wlll want the JCGC before the BC. Much depends on how he comes out of today's race and how he comes out of the Travers, if he runs it. After today's race, my priority would be keeping him healthy and happy for the BC, whatever that takes.

[thespaah]

Hard to tell, without him being all "dressed up" and all the media around...that's the most famous thouroughbred in the world. Just looks like any other horse at this moment.
No way...look how well muscled he is....That is one solid horse. Thick neck. Excellent confirmation. Pasterns look good. Shoulders, Hind quarters. AP is a specimen.

[thespaah]

Let's see Travers / JCGC / BC Classic. What more could be asked?
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: