andicap
06-04-2004, 11:31 AM
Forgetting the rain for a second,
I'm going to make a pitch for Eddington. Not saying he'll beat SJ, but he's the forgotten horse here IMHO.
This was posted by me on the HTR board using Cramer speed
figs with the lower the better. Each point is about a fifth of
a second (yeah its imprecise but close enough).
Three months ago te paired his 10s, definite reasons to bounce and he did, back to a 15 in a race where
he got bumped at the start. Running far off the pace isn't his game.
Then he came back with a 14 in a frankly disappointing Wood. His only excuse is there was
a ton of speed in the race and although the pace was moderate Eddington still dueled and the winner came from way off the pace. (It can be almost as stressful dueling into a
moderate pace as a fast one at times.) In that race, the Wood Memorial, Tapit's' %E figs in his previous LIVE races were
very sustained, below 51%. Eddington's normal races were about at 51%.
In a race with a lot of speed you want to look for a horse with low E% (but usually on the
dirt not THAT low -- you got to model the track).
The Preakness figure to me is a throwout. He was so wide and got into trouble in the stretch that no way could he run his normal race. That doesn't figure to happen today
with the sweeping turns.
So if Eddington can build on his 10 from three months ago he can contend, at least for the exotics and to win, you never know.
Also, Eddington's early presser style could play well in a race with not much pace assuming he can get 12f and his 870 rating (predigree, out of 999) sure is encouraging. He still carries that 93 workout rating (out of 100, an excellent figure)
and when do you get such long odds on Jerry Bailey?
In one of the paceline scenarios -- best AP in last 6 months at a route, he's 3rd in one key velocity measure -- so he's not a rank outsider.
Now I don't know if he can run in the mud and that's what I need to ascertain today.
So for now, Eddington is my key in exotics, heavier in 2nd and 3rd place of course. With the heavy betting on Purge and Rock Hard 10, I bet Eddington is 15 or 20-1.
Now with the bad weather, expect some scratches, so if Purge scratches, Eddington might only be say, 10-1 and not such great value in the exotics anymore.
I'm going to make a pitch for Eddington. Not saying he'll beat SJ, but he's the forgotten horse here IMHO.
This was posted by me on the HTR board using Cramer speed
figs with the lower the better. Each point is about a fifth of
a second (yeah its imprecise but close enough).
Three months ago te paired his 10s, definite reasons to bounce and he did, back to a 15 in a race where
he got bumped at the start. Running far off the pace isn't his game.
Then he came back with a 14 in a frankly disappointing Wood. His only excuse is there was
a ton of speed in the race and although the pace was moderate Eddington still dueled and the winner came from way off the pace. (It can be almost as stressful dueling into a
moderate pace as a fast one at times.) In that race, the Wood Memorial, Tapit's' %E figs in his previous LIVE races were
very sustained, below 51%. Eddington's normal races were about at 51%.
In a race with a lot of speed you want to look for a horse with low E% (but usually on the
dirt not THAT low -- you got to model the track).
The Preakness figure to me is a throwout. He was so wide and got into trouble in the stretch that no way could he run his normal race. That doesn't figure to happen today
with the sweeping turns.
So if Eddington can build on his 10 from three months ago he can contend, at least for the exotics and to win, you never know.
Also, Eddington's early presser style could play well in a race with not much pace assuming he can get 12f and his 870 rating (predigree, out of 999) sure is encouraging. He still carries that 93 workout rating (out of 100, an excellent figure)
and when do you get such long odds on Jerry Bailey?
In one of the paceline scenarios -- best AP in last 6 months at a route, he's 3rd in one key velocity measure -- so he's not a rank outsider.
Now I don't know if he can run in the mud and that's what I need to ascertain today.
So for now, Eddington is my key in exotics, heavier in 2nd and 3rd place of course. With the heavy betting on Purge and Rock Hard 10, I bet Eddington is 15 or 20-1.
Now with the bad weather, expect some scratches, so if Purge scratches, Eddington might only be say, 10-1 and not such great value in the exotics anymore.