Temp Rail and Fractions

[cj]

For those making pace figures, it is definitely better to treat each rail setting as a different course. Here is one example from Saratoga. The 1st quarter of 5.5 sprints on the Mellon (outer) turf course when normalized to the same final time:

All races: 22.16
Rail at 00: 22.04
Rail at 12: 22.11
Rail at 18: 22.33
Rail at 27: 22.26

It doesn't seem like much difference, but think about it like this. Lets assume a 22.16 = 100 on someone's scale, and each tenth of a second = 2 points. A horse running 22.04 with no temp rail (0 setting) is going to get a 102.4 rating when in reality it should be 100. A horse running a 22.33 with the rail at 18 feet would get a 94.2 when it should be 100. That is a difference of over 8 points when in reality the performances are equal. Think that might matter when making ratings?

[ronsmac]

It's particularly significant when the horse who trips the beam or trakus isn't the 1st to the points of call. It takes enormous amounts of time to identity and lots of experience in making good estimates, unfortunately.

[cj]

It's particularly significant when the horse who trips the beam or trakus isn't the 1st to the points of call. It takes enormous amounts of time to identity and lots of experience in making good estimates, unfortunately.

Yes, run up matters as I've discussed many times. It all comes into play. It just depends how meticulous you want to be. I can't help it, I have to be meticulous, just my nature.