EMD4ME
07-29-2015, 12:50 AM
Interesting race.
Reading on line and most people concede a 2 horse between the 3&4. La Verdad and Judy The Beauty.
I agree it's a 2 horse race but it's not the 2 heavy faves that I see duking this out at the 1/16th pole.
I do see Judy The Beauty having a shot to win but to me the "other" horse is the 5 Street Story.
Street Story has been deceptively improving and has the perfect style for this race.
The 2 inside posts have deceptive speed (the 1's last race was an abberation as JV was passive from the gate, let the outside horses clear and then sent his horse up 5 wide early on the backstretch). Cancel is a sender with the rail post. He will go and this horse has some gas.
The 2 horse might be a "new" horse after the trainer switch. He ran real well in 1st start for Ralph Nicks and at the very least will keep La Verdad out 3 wide early.
I see the 1,2 and 3 dueling across the track. Here's where Rosario is the key to the play. If he settles and times his move right, he wins. If he moves too early, the race COMPLETELY sets up for Castellano and Street Story.
If La Verdad clears, I might still see her being run down as the rail might be minus or dead again (you never know with track maintenance but the rail has not been hot 3/4 days so far). Could see Judy coming early to chase, which could compromise her and still set it up for a late close from Street Story.
The play: $250 win 5 at expected odds of 6/1 to 10/1. $80 exacta 4-5 (Expected exacta price of $15-$20) to make a small profit AND finally a $20 cover 2-5 (just in case the 2 is a new horse and runs them off their feet).
I am foreseeing La Verdad off the board at an underlaid price. She has never past a horse (except for a cheap speedball she sat off of back in May of 2014 going a Mile) and I do foresee the inside 2 pp's holding the lead into the far turn.
Street Story has 2 races deep in her PPs where she sat pretty far off a hot pace going 6F and rallied up in time.
Many people love lone speeds, this is one of my favorite angles, lone closer.
It all depends on how the jocks ride but with the draws, it could work out the way I see it.
Reading on line and most people concede a 2 horse between the 3&4. La Verdad and Judy The Beauty.
I agree it's a 2 horse race but it's not the 2 heavy faves that I see duking this out at the 1/16th pole.
I do see Judy The Beauty having a shot to win but to me the "other" horse is the 5 Street Story.
Street Story has been deceptively improving and has the perfect style for this race.
The 2 inside posts have deceptive speed (the 1's last race was an abberation as JV was passive from the gate, let the outside horses clear and then sent his horse up 5 wide early on the backstretch). Cancel is a sender with the rail post. He will go and this horse has some gas.
The 2 horse might be a "new" horse after the trainer switch. He ran real well in 1st start for Ralph Nicks and at the very least will keep La Verdad out 3 wide early.
I see the 1,2 and 3 dueling across the track. Here's where Rosario is the key to the play. If he settles and times his move right, he wins. If he moves too early, the race COMPLETELY sets up for Castellano and Street Story.
If La Verdad clears, I might still see her being run down as the rail might be minus or dead again (you never know with track maintenance but the rail has not been hot 3/4 days so far). Could see Judy coming early to chase, which could compromise her and still set it up for a late close from Street Story.
The play: $250 win 5 at expected odds of 6/1 to 10/1. $80 exacta 4-5 (Expected exacta price of $15-$20) to make a small profit AND finally a $20 cover 2-5 (just in case the 2 is a new horse and runs them off their feet).
I am foreseeing La Verdad off the board at an underlaid price. She has never past a horse (except for a cheap speedball she sat off of back in May of 2014 going a Mile) and I do foresee the inside 2 pp's holding the lead into the far turn.
Street Story has 2 races deep in her PPs where she sat pretty far off a hot pace going 6F and rallied up in time.
Many people love lone speeds, this is one of my favorite angles, lone closer.
It all depends on how the jocks ride but with the draws, it could work out the way I see it.