MASOCHISTIC

[lamboguy]

in the Bing Crosby it looked like he had a perfect trip and couldn't run down the lane. he must have had some type of breathing problem because he certainly ran a huge race the time before.

[Vinnie]

By the means that I use to handicap I had the #2 and #3 as being at Peak levels of Fitness for that race yesterday. I believe that they made him (Masochistic) expend a considerable amount of energy to to overtake them well down the stretch. This allowed somewhat of an advantageous race setup for the #4 and Kobe's back to be in the mix late. :)

It was an interesting race. Masochistic is one helluva horse.

[cj]

Masochistic has never run particularly fast on TimeformUS numbers, certainly not G1 numbers. Average for a G1 is about 128. He had yet to hit 120, though he might have yesterday barely. I haven't finished yet.

I thought he was way overbet yesterday, but couldn't capitalize on it as Wild Ride wasn't a horse I thought much of either.

That was an extremely weak G1.

[SuperPickle]

So is the consensus he can't rate or isn't that good? Or a little of both...

I'd be shocked if a west coast horse won the BC sprint at this point.

Btw... Kobe's Back would have won with any decent break. He seems to be breaking even worse than before which is saying something.

[cutchemist42]

I too didnt think much of Maso at that price, and I thought that race was going to allow Kobe to have a good chance with his style. I had considered the winner only briefly, but just simply liked the other closer more in that race.

I think Kobe had a really bad start, didnt watch the replay yet as I had to leave quickly after.

[cj]

So is the consensus he can't rate or isn't that good? Or a little of both...

I'd be shocked if a west coast horse won the BC sprint at this point.

Btw... Kobe's Back would have won with any decent break. He seems to be breaking even worse than before which is saying something.

Looked like he rated fine to me, ran a lifetime best on my figures, but just isn't as good as some think.

Kobe's Back...seen his kind too many times. He is always over bet off of self induced trouble.

[Poindexter]

Ron Ellis was talking on TVG on Saturday about him. He did mention concern that he might bounce(I found that curious-I would think a trainer should notice something to be concerned-or maybe he did?), also mentioned he was changing up his tactics in preparation for the Breeders Cup as he was concerned that the BC likely will have a ton of early speed and he didn't want to go into it one dimensional. Hard to knock previous easy win over Appealing Tale, who ran really strong on Saturday, dueling with and putting away Bayern and getting nipped very late by Catch a Flight. CJ, says he gets a better figure for yesterday than the easy win the time before. I find that really hard to swallow, since as previously mentioned, with a clean break, Kobe's Back rolls by the winner and I cannot buy that both Wild Dude and Kobe's Back were better than the previous win by Massochistic. I am hardly an expert on speed figures(and obviously CJ is), but regardless they have to make sense to me or I dismiss them.

fwiw, I think the change in tactics was the ultimate cause of his loss. I think the horse will probably learn how to win from off the pace, just do not think he was able to yesterday.

[Stillriledup]

If he's concerned about the bounce, why run?

[cj]

Ron Ellis was talking on TVG on Saturday about him. He did mention concern that he might bounce(I found that curious-I would think a trainer should notice something to be concerned-or maybe he did?), also mentioned he was changing up his tactics in preparation for the Breeders Cup as he was concerned that the BC likely will have a ton of early speed and he didn't want to go into it one dimensional. Hard to knock previous easy win over Appealing Tale, who ran really strong on Saturday, dueling with and putting away Bayern and getting nipped very late by Catch a Flight. CJ, says he gets a better figure for yesterday than the easy win the time before. I find that really hard to swallow, since as previously mentioned, with a clean break, Kobe's Back rolls by the winner and I cannot buy that both Wild Dude and Kobe's Back were better than the previous win by Massochistic. I am hardly an expert on speed figures(and obviously CJ is), but regardless they have to make sense to me or I dismiss them.

fwiw, I think the change in tactics was the ultimate cause of his loss. I think the horse will probably learn how to win from off the pace, just do not think he was able to yesterday.

A big reason Masochistic's lower figure last time was the slow pace, which we include in the figures.

Bounce is almost always a convenient, made up, preemptive excuse for losing a race.

[ReplayRandall]

A big reason Masochistic's lower figure last time was the slow pace, which we include in the figures.

Bounce is almost always a convenient, made up, preemptive excuse for losing a race.

Well, if Ellis sees the higher fig you just gave, he can use that "preemptive excuse" again.... :cool:

[Poindexter]

If he's concerned about the bounce, why run?

Since Ellis has had this horse he has pretty much won easily and/or impressively every time out. So I found it curious that he would have even mentioned the word bounce. He did not say he was concerned about the bounce(that is my interpretation-he said something to the tune of he should win if he doesn't bounce). There was nothing hard or extra special about the previous effort relative to the others imo. Now I am not very familiar with Ellis in discussing his horses (do like his insight on tvg) so I do not know if it was preemptive excuse as CJ mentions or he might have noticed something that just wasn't right. I am sure nothing blatant or obvious, but a little something that might have had him a little concerned in the back of his mind.

[classhandicapper]

I didn't think Masochistic ran particularly well yesterday.

He sat off the 2 duelers he finished ahead of, beat Kobe's Back by 1 1/2 lengths (who spotted the field 4-5 lengths), and he lost to Wild Dude. I'm not sure what there is to like other than it was a Graded Stakes race and he didn't get beaten badly finishing 2nd. I thought he ran better in the Triple Bend. The TB was probably a tougher field and he at least put away another speed horse before drawing off.

[JimmyQ]

Im my opinion Tyler moved too soon and the horse hit the front end too soon on the turn and started looking around

JimmyQ

[SuperPickle]

Poindexter has a great point. By definition a bounce is when a horse regresses off a hard used victory or race. This horse one easily so this by definition is not a bounce. Obviously for whatever reason Ellis thought he'd regress.

I love Ron on TVG evaluating horses from a trainers persecutive. He's great at eye balling a horse or putting a drop down or class hike in perspective because he knows the condition book.

The being said when it comes to using handicapping terms or even handicapping i stop listening.

[theiman]

In his past 7 races Maochistic has been a lone F or a dueling leader. So Ellis may have used the Gr1 Crosby as a test race to see if he is comfortable doing it off the lead. If you want to know what you can, or cant do, it might be better to know in July for a $300K purse then in October for a 1.5M purse.
Another thing, it appears Masochistic switched back to his inside lead midway to late stretch. Not sure that is what you want to see.

By the way, since the rain day a week ago Saturday DM has placed the starting gate, mainly for sprints, about a path or two further away from the rail then the past. The inside is not the place to be, whether on the lead or in the back saving ground. By placing the gate further away from the rail even some experienced horses, when they break, tend to duck in.

[ultracapper]

I saw Ellis when he said this. If I remember correctly, he said the horse had run a lifetime number and a bounce is always a concern when a horse runs a lifetime number. He actually said the horse could slightly bounce and still beat that field. I believe he expected to win yesterday.