Top Horse Analytics: 07/27/2015 SAR Picks/Results

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after late changes have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- with THA payoffs (wins, verticals, horizontals) highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: DMR, GP, SAR
THA Suspended Tracks: BEL, CD, KEE
THA Inactive Tracks: AQU-I, AQU-O, GPW, OP, SA, TAM

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.15.07.23a)

Race Cancellations (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Today's Scratches And Changes (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)

Race Results
Equibase Charts (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
THA Race Results (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

07/27/15, SAR, Race 1, 1.00 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $35,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3), Pick 5 Races (1-5) - Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Purrfectly Mine [5-1] Castellano J / Martin Carlos F.
099.9005 :3: Star Dynasty [2-1] Franco M / Hushion Michael E.
098.4568 :7: Zoetic [10-1] Rosario J / Zito Nicholas P.
097.8790 :5: Selective Memory [3-1] Hernandez R M / Ward Wesley A.
097.5769 6 No Shanks [4-1] Saez L / Mareina Michael
096.9100 4 Okay Momma [15-1] Cancel E / Contessa Gary C.
096.6582 1 Believeinfaith [6-1] Arroyo A S / Antonucci Jena M.

07/27/15, SAR, Race 2, 1.33 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.00 CLAIMING. Purse $50,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Chapman [3-1] Cruz A / Englehart Chris J.
099.5369 :6: Wild Finish [7/2] Castellano J / Sciacca Gary
099.3733 :3: Johannesburg Smile [5/2] Velasquez C H / Jacobson David
098.5083 :7: Seek to Destroy [6-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R.
097.2506 1 Saturday Appeal [15-1] Alvarado J / Schosberg Richard E.
095.5742 2 Everydoghashisday [30-1] Sullivan C / Parker Joseph G.
*Scratch* 5 Jeter [4-1] Cancel E / Esler Nicholas

07/27/15, SAR, Race 3, 2.06 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.13.04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $90,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Sweet Whiskey [3/5] Velazquez J R / Pletcher Todd A.
093.6756 :4: Jubilant Vision [5-1] Velasquez C H / Jacobson David
093.3376 :3: Sweet Success [6-1] Lanerie C J / Arnold. II George R.
092.8276 :6: Court Dancer [12-1] Franco M / Weaver George
092.2373 2 Making Havoc [8-1] Ortiz J L / Nevin Michelle
092.0789 5 Medaglia d'Argento [20-1] Saez L / Rice Linda

07/27/15, SAR, Race 4, 2.39 ET
1 3/8M [Inner Turf] 2.11.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $83,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6) - Pick 6 Races (4-9), Double
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Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Kitzys Rocket [3-1] Castellano J / Tagg Barclay
098.7663 :5: Honey Chile Ryder [15-1] Franco M / Pletcher Todd A.
098.4868 :6: Tiztalented [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Clement Christophe
097.6679 :3: Right Decision [6-1] Rosario J / Mott William I.
097.3329 10 (F)Often (IRE) [2-1] Lezcano J / Motion H. Graham
097.1252 8 Magical Empire [8-1] Cancel E / Kimmel John C.
096.5082 9 Tizette [20-1] Leparoux J R / Bond H. James
095.3078 4 Poly One Flex [12-1] Lanerie C J / Arnold. II George R.
*Scratch* 7 Regia Marina [6/5] Castellano J / Albertrani Thomas
*Scratch* 1 Say Cin Cin [3-1] Leparoux J R / Bond H. James

07/27/15, SAR, Race 5, 3.12 ET
1 1/8M [Dirt] 1.46.03 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $90,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7) - Grand Slam Races (5-8), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Tiz So Sweet [7/5] Alvarado J / Mott William I.
097.4158 :4: Samantha Nicole [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / McLaughlin Kiaran P.
095.9419 :2: Natalie Victoria [5-1] Ortiz J L / Nevin Michelle
095.9002 :3: Amulay [4-1] Velazquez J R / Levine Bruce N.
094.9069 5 Star Grazing [15-1] Arroyo A S / Jerkens James A.
094.5675 6 Another Incident [8-1] Rosario J / Zito Nicholas P.

07/27/15, SAR, Race 6, 3.45 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.13.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $45,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (6-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: Bustin the Bank [4-1] Carmouche K / Levine Bruce N.
099.7337 :2: Stone Crab [6-1] Velasquez C H / Rodriguez Rudy R.
099.3586 :5: Devilish Grin [5-1] Velazquez J R / Toscano. Jr. John T.
098.2672 :3: Royal Afleet [30-1] Trujillo E / DiSanto Glenn B.
098.0504 4 Spartan Emperor [20-1] Franco M / Falcone. Jr. Robert N.
097.7284 6 Vischer Ferry [6-1] Alvarado J / Kingsley. Jr. Archibal
097.6412 9 Thank You [2-1] Saez L / Mareina Michael
097.5299 1 Hundred Percent [10-1] Jara F / Englehart Chris J.
095.1743 8 Tommaso [12-1] Cancel E / Bond H. James

07/27/15, SAR, Race 7, 4.18 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.03 STAKES. Purse $100,000.
Exacta, Trifecta .(50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Shore Runner [3-1] Carmouche K / Sharp Joe
099.3982 :9: Sharp Sensation [10-1] Saez L / Baker Reade
098.4694 :6: Amelia's Wild Ride [5-1] Lezcano J / Preciado Ramon
098.1165 :3: Bold Thunder [6-1] Ortiz J L / Farro Patricia
096.3171 8 Sandy'z Slew [12-1] Alvarado J / Schosberg Richard E.
096.2845 4 Spring to the Sky [8-1] Rosario J / Brown Bruce R.
095.7115 2 Brewing [20-1] Velazquez J R / Lukas D. Wayne
095.5432 10 Saucy Don [15-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Pompay Teresa M.
093.8045 5 Sonny Inspired [30-1] Toledo J / Schoenthal Phil
*Scratch* 7 Tightend Touchdown [4-1] Castellano J / Servis Jason
*Scratch* 11 Dreamsgonewild [10-1] McCarthy T / Alexander Bruce F.

07/27/15, SAR, Race 8, 4.52 ET
1M [Inner Turf] 1.33.01 ALLOWANCE. Purse $75,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :10: Corner Three [5/2] Ortiz J L / Brown Chad C.
095.9930 :7: Conquest Superstep [3-1] Bridgmohan S / Casse Mark E.
092.1182 :3: B Rockett [7/2] Castellano J / Arnold. II George R.
090.9437 :4: Willow U [10-1] Franco M / Weaver George
090.2177 11 Loon River [12-1] Lezcano J / Sciacca Gary
089.1183 1 Sakonnet Point [30-1] Cintron A / Sheppard Jonathan E.
088.9571 8 Milkyyourway [20-1] Cancel E / Schettino Dominick
088.7812 9 Moonlit Sonnet [10-1] Rosario J / Orseno Joseph F.
088.6797 6 Cosmic Serenity [15-1] Saez L / Serpe Philip M.
087.1313 5 Bi Light of Day [30-1] Carmouche K / Hertler John O.
086.2403 2 Rockin Alli [30-1] Trujillo E / Shaw Timothy J.

07/27/15, SAR, Race 9, 5.26 ET
1 1/8M [Turf] 1.45.02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $45,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: My Friend Keith [3-1] Alvarado J / Mott William I.
098.6730 :9: Plundering [5-1] Castellano J / Contessa Gary C.
098.4830 :13: Spun Hard [4-1] Velasquez C H / Rice Linda
098.1191 :2: Ant and Bee [12-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Hertler John O.
097.3994 10 Priest N the Rabbi [12-1] Cruz A / Ward Wesley A.
097.1229 3 Gear Jammer [10-1] Lezcano J / Martin Carlos F.
096.8874 1 Kitstrickortreat [30-1] Trujillo E / Reynolds Patrick L.
096.3839 4 Greg's Fourwheeler [6-1] Franco M / Bush Thomas M.
096.0514 7 Holy Week [6-1] Bridgmohan S / Turner. Jr. William H.
095.9641 5 Massolimo [6-1] Cancel E / Bond H. James
094.5090 11 Giantpatontheback [15-1] Jimenez S / Kelly Patrick J.
093.8416 8 Michael James [15-1] Saez L / Albertrani Thomas
*Scratch* 16 Back Scatter [10-1] Carmouche K / Magee Kieron
*Scratch* 15 Jacob's Here [30-1] Jara F / Quick Patrick J.
*Scratch* 14 Starago [20-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / DiPrima Gregory
*Scratch* 12 O'Bear [20-1] Jara F / Hertler John O.

[Augenj]

WPS Takeout at SAR is 16%, Breakage is $0.10

07/27/15, SAR, Race 1, 1:00 ET
100.0000 :2: Purrfectly Mine [5-1] 3rd - 3.80
099.9005 :3: Star Dynasty [2-1 * ] 1st - 6.10 3.10 2.30
098.4568 :7: Zoetic [10-1]
097.8790 :5: Selective Memory [3-1] 4th
097.5769 6 No Shanks [4-1] 2nd - 4.20 3.00
096.9100 4 Okay Momma [15-1]
096.6582 1 Believeinfaith [6-1]

07/27/15, SAR, Race 2, 1:33 ET
100.0000 :4: Chapman [3-1 * ] 4th
099.5369 :6: Wild Finish [7/2] wide trip
099.3733 :3: Johannesburg Smile [5/2] 2nd - 3.50
098.5083 :7: Seek to Destroy [6-1] 3rd - 3.50
097.2506 1 Saturday Appeal [15-1] 1st - 27.40 11.60 5.70
095.5742 2 Everydoghashisday [30-1]
*Scratch* 5 Jeter [4-1]

07/27/15, SAR, Race 3, 2:06 ET
100.0000 :1: Sweet Whiskey [3/5 * ] 1st - 3.00 2.40 2.10
093.6756 :4: Jubilant Vision [5-1] 3rd - 2.60
093.3376 :3: Sweet Success [6-1] 2nd - 5.20 3.40
092.8276 :6: Court Dancer [12-1]
092.2373 2 Making Havoc [8-1]
092.0789 5 Medaglia d'Argento [20-1] 4th

07/27/15, SAR, Race 4, 2:39 ET
100.0000 :2: Kitzys Rocket [3-1 * ] 1st - 7.10 4.20 2.50
098.7663 :5: Honey Chile Ryder [15-1]
098.4868 :6: Tiztalented [7/2] 3rd - 2.80
097.6679 :3: Right Decision [6-1] 2nd - 7.30 4.20
097.3329 10 (F)Often (IRE) [2-1]
097.1252 8 Magical Empire [8-1]
096.5082 9 Tizette [20-1]
095.3078 4 Poly One Flex [12-1] 4th
*Scratch* 7 Regia Marina [6/5]
*Scratch* 1 Say Cin Cin [3-1]
$2 Double 12.00

07/27/15, SAR, Race 5, 3:12 ET
100.0000 :1: Tiz So Sweet [7/5] 1st - 6.60 3.70 2.80
097.4158 :4: Samantha Nicole [7/2 * ] 2nd - 3.40 2.50 $2 Ex 19.40
095.9419 :2: Natalie Victoria [5-1] stopped, eased, walked off
095.9002 :3: Amulay [4-1]
094.9069 5 Star Grazing [15-1] 3rd - 3.40
094.5675 6 Another Incident [8-1] 4th
$2 Double 19.80
$2 Pick3 35.40

07/27/15, SAR, Race 6, 3:45 ET
100.0000 :7: Bustin the Bank [4-1] 3rd - 3.70
099.7337 :2: Stone Crab [6-1]
099.3586 :5: Devilish Grin [5-1] 1st - 11.20 4.50 3.20
098.2672 :3: Royal Afleet [30-1]
098.0504 4 Spartan Emperor [20-1]
097.7284 6 Vischer Ferry [6-1]
097.6412 9 Thank You [2-1 * ] 2nd - 3.20 2.50
097.5299 1 Hundred Percent [10-1] 4th
095.1743 8 Tommaso [12-1]

07/27/15, SAR, Race 7, 4:18 ET
100.0000 :1: Shore Runner [3-1 * ] 1st - 4.70 2.80 2.40
099.3982 :9: Sharp Sensation [10-1] 2nd - 4.80 3.40 $2 Ex 26.20
098.4694 :6: Amelia's Wild Ride [5-1] 3rd - 3.50 $2 Tri 97.00
098.1165 :3: Bold Thunder [6-1]
096.3171 8 Sandy'z Slew [12-1] 4th
096.2845 4 Spring to the Sky [8-1]
095.7115 2 Brewing [20-1]
095.5432 10 Saucy Don [15-1]
093.8045 5 Sonny Inspired [30-1]
*Scratch* 7 Tightend Touchdown [4-1]
*Scratch* 11 Dreamsgonewild [10-1]

07/27/15, SAR, Race 8, 4:52 ETth
100.0000 :10: Corner Three [5/2 * ] wide trip
095.9930 :7: Conquest Superstep [3-1] 3rd - 5.20
092.1182 :3: B Rockett [7/2]
090.9437 :4: Willow U [10-1] 1st - 19.20 7.70 6.50
090.2177 11 Loon River [12-1] 2nd - 12.40 9.10
089.1183 1 Sakonnet Point [30-1]
088.9571 8 Milkyyourway [20-1]
088.7812 9 Moonlit Sonnet [10-1] pulled up, vanned off
088.6797 6 Cosmic Serenity [15-1] 4th
087.1313 5 Bi Light of Day [30-1]
086.2403 2 Rockin Alli [30-1]

07/27/15, SAR, Race 9, 5:26 ET
100.0000 :6: My Friend Keith [3-1 * ] 1st - 4.80 3.20 2.70
098.6730 :9: Plundering [5-1]
098.4830 :13: Spun Hard [4-1] eased, vanned off
098.1191 :2: Ant and Bee [12-1]
097.3994 10 Priest N the Rabbi [12-1]
097.1229 3 Gear Jammer [10-1]
096.8874 1 Kitstrickortreat [30-1]
096.3839 4 Greg's Fourwheeler [6-1] 3rd - 4.60
096.0514 7 Holy Week [6-1] 4th
095.9641 5 Massolimo [6-1]
094.5090 11 Giantpatontheback [15-1] 2nd - 26.40 14.20
093.8416 8 Michael James [15-1]
*Scratch* 16 Back Scatter [10-1]
*Scratch* 15 Jacob's Here [30-1]
*Scratch* 14 Starago [20-1]
*Scratch* 12 O'Bear [20-1]