Saratoga July 25 Dirt Daily Variants

[highnote]

Below is my worksheet for calculating July 26 Dirt Daily Variants at Saratoga.

All the dirt races were sprints, so that made things easier.

Average variant 2f = 0.47 seconds slow.
Average variant 4f = 0.61 seconds slow.
Average variant final= 0.72 seconds slow.

Median variant 2f = 0.44 slow
Median variant 4f = 0.49 slow
Median variant final = 0.38 slow

The median variants produces about the same Daily Variant as the average, except the final variant is not quite so slow.

The race that is difficult to figure is Race #9 -- the 2 year old stakes race. I have the final time 2.88 seconds slower than par. The older fillies in the 7th race ran the same distance a half second faster. So either the 2 year olds are slow or I have an incorrect par time for 2 year old stakes.


actual par diff
race# 2f 4f 6f ff | 2f 4f 6f ff 2f 4f 6f ff class
1 22.75 46.3 65 | 22.03 45.35 64.23 0.72 0.95 0 0.77 2yo msw 5.5 f
4 22.5 45.58 76.76 | 22.03 45.14 76.71 0.47 0.44 0 0.05 3+ str alw nw2L 6.5 fur
5 22.32 45.72 64.23 | 22.03 45.35 64.23 0.29 0.37 0 0 2yo msw 5.5 f
7 22.54 45.88 70.4 | 22.13 45.34 70.51 0.41 0.54 0 -0.11 alw nw1L fillies 3+ 6 fur
9 22.52 45.98 70.92 | 21.62 44.21 68.04 0.9 1.77 0 2.88 2yo stk 6 fur
11 22.84 45.37 82.51 | 22.8 45.75 81.8 0.04 -0.38 0 0.71 50k clm 3+ 7 fur

0.47 0.61 0.72 AVG DAILY VARIANT
0.44 0.49 0.38 MEDIAN DAILY VARIANT

[cj]

I wouldn't worry about the Sanford, the "winner" that was DQed swerved all over the place and would have been spot on the variant with a straight run IMO.

[highnote]

I wouldn't worry about the Sanford, the "winner" that was DQed swerved all over the place and would have been spot on the variant with a straight run IMO.


I wonder... if that's the case then what does that say about the rest of the field?

If my par is correct and if he would have run a straight line, could he have made up 2 seconds and gotten to my par?

Could his ducking out have cost him 2 seconds?

[cj]

I wonder... if that's the case then what does that say about the rest of the field?

If my par is correct and if he would have run a straight line, could he have made up 2 seconds and gotten to my par?

Could his ducking out have cost him 2 seconds?

Probably not 2 seconds, but certainly more in line. Pars are shaky for 2yos this early in the year anyway. The last race is the most telling, those horses have plenty of history.

[classhandicapper]

I haven't checked the count, but I think they are running fewer 2yo MSW races at Belmont during the spring/summer these days because of the horse shortages. They are filling these early 2yo stakes with more ordinary maiden winners from CD, MTH, and even lower tier tracks instead of the most impressive winners at Belmont and the killers from other tracks.

I'm not sure how you calculated your PAR for 2yo stakes, but I don't think this Sanford was particularly strong on a qualitative basis relative to what we sometimes see at Saratoga. Even the legit winner was coming out of an Off the Turf race.

[highnote]

I haven't checked the count, but I think they are running fewer 2yo MSW races at Belmont during the spring/summer these days because of the horse shortages. They are filling these early 2yo stakes with more ordinary maiden winners from CD, MTH, and even lower tier tracks instead of the most impressive winners at Belmont and the killers from other tracks.

I'm not sure how you calculated your PAR for 2yo stakes, but I don't think this Sanford was particularly strong on a qualitative basis relative to what we sometimes see at Saratoga. Even the legit winner was coming out of an Off the Turf race.


I made a mistake. I used the wrong par.

To create the Stakes Par Time, I used the MSW par for 2 year olds at Saratoga and then extrapolated upwards using Quirin's recommended class levels adjustments.

For 6 furlongs for 2 year olds at SAR here are my pars:

MSW 70.68
NW1 70.28
NW2 69.88
NW3 69.68
CLF 69.48
STK 69.28

The Sanford was run in 70.92. So it was only 1.64 seconds slower than par, but still the slowest of the dirt races.

My Daily Variant is now 0.51 slow rather than 0.72 slow.

ACTUAL PARS DIFFERENCES
race# 2f 4f 6f ff | 2f 4f 6f ff | 2f 4f 6f ff class
1 22.75 46.3 65 | 22.03 45.35 64.23 | -0.72 -0.95 0 -0.77 5.5f MSW 2yo
4 22.5 45.58 76.76 | 22.03 45.14 76.71 | -0.47 -0.44 0 -0.05 6.5f 3+ Str Alw NW1
5 22.32 45.72 64.23 | 22.03 45.35 64.23 | -0.29 -0.37 0 0 5.5f MSW 2yo
7 22.54 45.88 70.4 | 22.13 45.34 70.51 | -0.41 -0.54 0 0.11 6f F 3+NW1
9 22.52 45.98 70.92 | 22.06 45.11 69.28 | -0.46 -0.87 0 -1.64 6f STK 2yo
11 22.84 45.37 82.51 | 22.8 45.75 81.8 | -0.04 0.38 0 -0.71 7f 3+ c50

AVG DV -0.40 -0.46 0.00 -0.51
MED DV -0.44 -0.49 -0.38