Saratoga dirt bias ?

[taxicab]

Perhaps....
Still waiting for a speed horse to find the winners circle.
It looks like the closers have an edge.

[mikesal57]

Perhaps....
Still waiting for a speed horse to find the winners circle.
It looks like the closers have an edge.


Give it time buddy...

race 1 ..horse ran 2nd all the way to win
race 4..horses 1 & 2 broke out but looks like the 6 1/2 furs done them in..

race 6 should better tell

mike

[taxicab]

Give it time buddy...

race 1 ..horse ran 2nd all the way to win
race 4..horses 1 & 2 broke out but looks like the 6 1/2 furs done them in..

race 6 should better tell

mike


My bad....I should of mentioned yesterday was included also.
In two days no horse on the lead turning for home has won.
Stalkers should be OK.

[mikesal57]

A good thread to start is how to determine a track bias.....

For me is to see where the first 2 horses at the 1st quarter end up...
and look at the qtr time
and then compare to other races

mike

[EMD4ME]

Didn't want to start a new thread for it BUT I had the rail negative on 9/1.

Race 1 screamed minus rail to me.

Race 4 is the next dirt race. Let's see if it continues. I'll be betting it does.

[EMD4ME]

I'm interested to see how the rail plays today. Saturdays tend to have a solid rail. Especially super Saturdays.

I saw at least a hint of a negative rail yesterday. Especially in race 1.

[DeltaLover]

Comparing with last year's results I do not detect any significant anti w2w bias in the SPA

http://i65.tinypic.com/35m1sw7.png

[deelo]

I only look into track bias if things occur that don't make sense.

Trying to zero in and actively search for a bias on a daily basis will often lead you astray from good handicapping.

[EMD4ME]

Comparing with last year's results I do not detect any significant anti w2w bias in the SPA

http://i65.tinypic.com/35m1sw7.png

Good info my friend but I'm not talking about the meet. Talking about the last 2 days.

[EMD4ME]

I only look into track bias if things occur that don't make sense.

Trying to zero in and actively search for a bias on a daily basis will often lead you astray from good handicapping.

And IMHO if you dont know how the track played everyday you are in deep trouble.

[Tom]

Merry-go-round in the second - 13 shot holds off the heavy favorite.
No meaningful moves by anything.

[EMD4ME]

Merry-go-round in the second - 13 shot holds off the heavy favorite.
No meaningful moves by anything.

Just what I suspected, the old Saturday make the rail a highway move.

This is why I love the late Pick 5 idea. Gives you time to see how the track is playing.

[AltonKelsey]

And IMHO if you dont know how the track played everyday you are in deep trouble.

Sort of like running on the dead rail?

[EMD4ME]

Sort of like running on the dead rail?


Or a third rail on the subway line :lol:

[classhandicapper]

One thing I noticed over the weekend was that the maintenance crew wasn't particularly consistent about when they were watering the dirt surface. I saw an example of a couple of turf races between two dirt races and they didn't water for the next dirt race and I saw watering between two consecutive dirt races.

I'm sure they are trying to produce a consistent and safe surface, but when it's sunny the moisture content of the surface almost has to be changing from race to race.

I'm not smart enough to call a bias correctly after a single race all the time, but varying moisture content could account for days when the track seems to be playing a certain way for a few races and then suddenly changes or even changes twice on the same card.

I'm becoming way more sensitive to speed/closer advantages on the single race level than I used to be by watching races, looking at the field makeup, and looking at the race flow, but inside/outside biases are really risky to call based on individual races.

[Cratos]

A good thread to start is how to determine a track bias.....

For me is to see where the first 2 horses at the 1st quarter end up...
and look at the qtr time
and then compare to other races

mike
You are correct, but how many will understand it because the correct surface resistance (track bias) is not calculated the way it is stated today.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Probably a similar percentage as those that are able to figure out the approximate length of a month without grasping the intricacies of lunar phases.

[classhandicapper]

Someone should start that bias thread. I'm sure plenty of people will comment.

[Tom]

Probably a similar percentage as those that are able to figure out the approximate length of a month without grasping the intricacies of lunar phases.

With or without the wind?

[EMD4ME]

Someone should start that bias thread. I'm sure plenty of people will comment.

Give me time. I'll do it.

[Cratos]

Probably a similar percentage as those that are able to figure out the approximate length of a month without grasping the intricacies of lunar phases.
Good, you are the person start it and i will gladly contribute

[cj]

You are correct, but how many will understand it because the correct surface resistance (track bias) is not calculated the way it is stated today.


Give it a rest. Stop trying to take every thread in the same direction.

[Cratos]

Give it a rest. Stop trying to take every thread in the same direction.
What direction that might be?

[cj]

What direction that might be?

The one that leads to lots of deletions.

[classhandicapper]

Give me time. I'll do it.

If you want to see an interesting track, watch the races at PARX yesterday (9/5/16).

[cj]

That is your schick; delete what you don't understand.

Truly feel sorry for you

I understand just fine, as does nearly everyone else. We just get tired of hearing the same things over and over and over and over and over ad nauseam. You don't listen to anyone else or say anything new. You just get on your pulpit and re-spew the same information.

[DeltaLover]

You are correct, but how many will understand it because the correct surface resistance (track bias) is not calculated the way it is stated today.


You have repeated many times this type of statements while but never provided and concrete description of your version of "the correct surface resistance".

Your continuous referral to elementary mechanics and Newtonian physics do not give a concrete and refutable theory but rather they consist of open ended arguments that are impossible to be tested and verified.

If you do not decide to describe your approach in a detailed and refined fashion directly applicable to real data it might be better for you to remain silent (otherwise you are simply trolling and nothing more than this) .

[thaskalos]

You have repeated many times this type of statements while but never provided and concrete description of your version of "the correct surface resistance".

Your continuous referral to elementary mechanics and Newtonian physics do not give a concrete and refutable theory but rather they consist of open ended arguments that are impossible to be tested and verified.

If you do not decide to describe your approach in a detailed and refined fashion directly applicable to real data it might be better for you to remain silent (otherwise you are simply trolling and nothing more than this) .

Careful now. You are talking about a guy who has been known to plunk down $200,000 to win on a single horse.

[rsetup]

Careful now. You are talking about a guy who has been known to plunk down $200,000 to win on a single horse.I could be wrong but I seem to recall first encountering this dude a bunch of years ago whete he claimed to show a profit at some abvreviated meet in the boondocks of India. On this forum, too.

[thaskalos]

I could be wrong but I seem to recall first encountering this dude a bunch of years ago whete he claimed to show a profit at some abvreviated meet in the boondocks of India. On this forum, too.

No...that was another guy.

[ReplayRandall]

I could be wrong but I seem to recall first encountering this dude a bunch of years ago whete he claimed to show a profit at some abvreviated meet in the boondocks of India. On this forum, too.

That poster was speculus (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=1996)....

[bobphilo]

A good thread to start is how to determine a track bias.....

For me is to see where the first 2 horses at the 1st quarter end up...
and look at the qtr time
and then compare to other races

mike
To ignore whether these first 2 early leaders figured to win or whether they had a pace advantage makes the notion of so-called track bias dubious.