Saratoga 7/25 Race 1

[letswastemoney]

I wrote this on the Facebook group Switching Leads, which is a place to discuss 2-year-old horses. Yesterday on there, I picked the winner of today's juvenile race, Just Wicked.

Let's see if I can go two straight at Saratoga with maidens. Unfortunately, the best horse this time is really the Pletcher.

Todd Pletcher BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html)

:1: Add Four (15/1) - Inclined to believe there is nothing here. There are no auction history clues. Mark Henning shows a 3% winning rate for first timers, out of a sample of 86. Andy Serling tweeted earlier that he doesn't think Henning is bad with first timers, but I can't see it right now.

:2: Totally Discreet (10/1) - Pop Princess won her career debut and competed at the stakes level. Discreet Cat is a good win-early sire. Nick Zito trains, and his statistic with first timers is not good, as BRIS shows a 4% rate out of 130 tries!

:3: War Stroll (8/1) - Attracts Javier Castellano, which is a good sign. Gildey never raced, and neither did the second dam. Sold for 35k at auction, but that was as a yearling and War Stroll was the second most expensive Stroll sold. Some positives, but not enough.

:4: Hundred Years (6/1) - There isn't much to see looking at the dam or second dam. Lone sibling to race was a complete failure and didn't even break his maiden at the claiming level. Not sure why he's even 6/1, other than Asmussen training.

:5: Boalt Hall (5/2) - Likely the Pletcher maiden that people really expect. Unlike Anna House, this is a precocious pedigree with Scat Daddy and a dam that won her career debut, although at the maiden claiming level. Stonestreet Farms is behind this colt. The lack of bullets do not matter much. He could win by a few lengths.

:6: Metal Magic (4/1) - Experience edge is always important and this one ran well in his debut. Eddie Kenneally wins at a 27% rate out of 110 with second time starters, and that is incredibly high considering 110 is a big number. Second choice.

:7: Moon King (3/1) - Can't figure out why this guy is 3/1. Highest earning sibling made $15k. The dam couldn't break her maiden, and the second one Kelli Cat never started. Interestingly though, Kelli Cat cost $1.75 million as a yearling. Someone willing to go deeper into this pedigree might explain why. This colt is likely going to be a better router, if anything.

:8: Black Doblin (20/1) - Going to pass...even though Dublin might turn out to be an okay sire. These are extremely low-profile connections. Highest earning sibling made 10k.

:9: Realm (12/1) - Shawnee Country was a good dam and broke her maiden at first asking. She also won the Tempted and Fair Grounds Oaks. Sibling North Freeway won $273k in her career, but most of the other siblings were nothing special. Not sure...Barclay Tagg is obviously a good guy. He wins at 4% clip out of 54 tries with first timers.

Selections...

Most likely: :5: Boalt Hall (5/2)
Second best: :6: Metal Magic (4/1)
Third best: :3: War Stroll (8/1)
Longshot pick: :9: Realm (12/1)

[Thebigguy]

I wrprobate this on the Facebook group Switching Leads, which is a place to discuss 2-year-old horses. Yesterday on there, I picked the winner of today's juvenile race, Just Wicked.

Let's see if I can go two straight at Saratoga with maidens. Unfortunately, the best horse this time is really the Pletcher.

Todd Pletcher BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html)

:1: Add Four (15/1) - Inclined to believe there is nothing here. There are no auction history clues. Mark Henning shows a 3% winning rate for first timers, out of a sample of 86. Andy Serling tweeted earlier that he doesn't think Henning is bad with first timers, but I can't see it right now.

:2: Totally Discreet (10/1) - Pop Princess won her career debut and competed at the stakes level. Discreet Cat is a good win-early sire. Nick Zito trains, and his statistic with first timers is not good, as BRIS shows a 4% rate out of 130 tries!

:3: War Stroll (8/1) - Attracts Javier Castellano, which is a good sign. Gildey never raced, and neither did the second dam. Sold for 35k at auction, but that was as a yearling and War Stroll was the second most expensive Stroll sold. Some positives, but not enough.

:4: Hundred Years (6/1) - There isn't much to see looking at the dam or second dam. Lone sibling to race was a complete failure and didn't even break his maiden at the claiming level. Not sure why he's even 6/1, other than Asmussen training.

:5: Boalt Hall (5/2) - Likely the Pletcher maiden that people really expect. Unlike Anna House, this is a precocious pedigree with Scat Daddy and a dam that won her career debut, although at the maiden claiming level. Stonestreet Farms is behind this colt. The lack of bullets do not matter much. He could win by a few lengths.

:6: Metal Magic (4/1) - Experience edge is always important and this one ran well in his debut. Eddie Kenneally wins at a 27% rate out of 110 with second time starters, and that is incredibly high considering 110 is a big number. Second choice.

:7: Moon King (3/1) - Can't figure out why this guy is 3/1. Highest earning sibling made $15k. The dam couldn't break her maiden, and the second one Kelli Cat never started. Interestingly though, Kelli Cat cost $1.75 million as a yearling. Someone willing to go deeper into this pedigree might explain why. This colt is likely going to be a better router, if anything.

:8: Black Doblin (20/1) - Going to pass...even though Dublin might turn out to be an okay sire. These are extremely low-profile connections. Highest earning sibling made 10k.

:9: Realm (12/1) - Shawnee Country was a good dam and broke her maiden at first asking. She also won the Tempted and Fair Grounds Oaks. Sibling North Freeway won $273k in her career, but most of the other siblings were nothing special. Not sure...Barclay Tagg is obviously a good guy. He wins at 4% clip out of 54 tries with first timers.

Selections...

Most likely: :5: Boalt Hall (5/2)
Second best: :6: Metal Magic (4/1)
Third best: :3: War Stroll (8/1)
Longshot pick: :9: Realm (12/1)



Bro your stuff on here,fb and lady at the track is all getting tired. Do you think your helping, or telling ppl anything they don't know by picking Pletcher odds on horses every race? Your write up about Positively Royal was especially funny, on paper she beat a horrible field and got a beyer in the 60s. Your sitting here writing about how much there is 2 like about hWe. This horse tomorrow is probably ok, but shouldn't you advise a wait and see approach for Todd? 2 baby's today both bomb at short prrices and you jump right back in at 4-5? Especially when Eddie K horse is going to jog

[Stillriledup]

Bro your stuff on here,fb and lady at the track is all getting tired. Do you think your helping, or telling ppl anything they don't know by picking Pletcher odds on horses every race? Your write up about Positively Royal was especially funny, on paper she beat a horrible field and got a beyer in the 60s. Your sitting here writing about how much there is 2 like about hWe. This horse tomorrow is probably ok, but shouldn't you advise a wait and see approach for Todd? 2 baby's today both bomb at short prrices and you jump right back in at 4-5? Especially when Eddie K horse is going to jog

I looked really hard for your write up and detailed analysis but couldn't find it. I know you wouldn't be critical of someone's contribution unless you had one of your own.

Right?

[letswastemoney]

The post I made about Positively Royal on Switching Leads was just pointing out there was a lot of hype on her.

Very late I changed my mind to Decked Out. I even made the late change on here...somewhere! She ran better than Positively Royal at least.

Actually, most of these posts are meant to spark discussion to see if I missed anything.

[letswastemoney]

This is what I wrote about Positively Royal on Facebook...but I wasn't pointing out they were good angles, just that they were angles that I knew would attract attention.

I actually hate Bernardini (from a handicapping standpoint, not the horse). He's one of the most overrated sires I've seen in my lifetime.

Initially on here, I wrote some comments suggesting she would be tough to beat without really going through the race. She certainly had everyone declaring her to be a "best bet of the day" and "single" both on here, Facebook and everywhere...maybe I fell for the hype a little bit despite the faulty sire.

[letswastemoney]

A.P. Indy has been such a great distance influence, and Anna House had him on the bottom side. Awesome Again was a router too, and he was the sire for Anna House.

Boalt Hall has Scat Daddy, who is more of a sire that makes win-early runners, and Yonaguska as the damsire, and he was a sprinter/miler in his career.

This is the kind of pedigree much more conducive to winning early, but it's fun to read other thoughts!

[EMD4ME]

The post I made about Positively Royal on Switching Leads was just pointing out there was a lot of hype on her.

Very late I changed my mind to Decked Out. I even made the late change on here...somewhere! She ran better than Positively Royal at least.

Actually, most of these posts are meant to spark discussion to see if I missed anything.

You wrote in the thread I created. Schylerville stakes July 24,2015

[CosmicWon]

I'm excited for this race because I think both Misremembered and Haynesfield are real value sires to keep an eye on and each has a runner here!

Steve's obviously more apt to win than the Haynesfield due to the Vindy as broodmare sire of the 4 and Barclay's patience that results in 4% wins with FTS.

I LOVE Airdrie to start sires and with the success of Munnings, I think Haynesfield is next in line to add to Speightstown as a sire of sires. That said, Misremembered really struck me as a nice prospect (especially at the stud fee) given the "handy" way he's built and his mental aptitude which to me is more mature than either Twirling Candy and Sidney's Candy.

I like both sires a lot for the price and while Todd's looks tough, I think both 4,9 are ones to watch as price plays in exotics. Don't care for the Casse at all as favorite given this distance. Yall can have him but I'll bet against this stoutly-bred kind everyday of the week going less than 6F.

4-5-6-9 for me using 4,5 in P5 and win bet on 4 at 5-1+.

[Tor Ekman]

:6: if you can get ML or better, but doubt it; otherwise take a shot with Zito :2: horse

[Robert Fischer]

first note the key early scratches scratch 5,6,8


:3: War Stroll (8/1) - Attracts Javier Castellano, which is a good sign. Gildey never raced, and neither did the second dam. Sold for 35k at auction, but that was as a yearling and War Stroll was the second most expensive Stroll sold. Some positives, but not enough.


Yea, :3: got the best of the remaining NY jockeys (Pletcher chose JV, Kenneally+Casse have their own riders up)

So either the :3: is more attractive than :1::2::4::8::9: or they entered earlier or :3:'s connections have a better relationship w/ JC's agent.


I'll mostly leave the baby races up to you pedigree experts.
I will however look at physicality of the horses pre-race as well as jockey assignments and trainers.

:7::3::4::2: before the paddock/parade/tote action

[KingChas]

1st timers Sire ratings-good luck!

Sire - class / Dam's Sire - class

Add Four
C - 3 / C - 3
Totally Discreet
C - 3 / D - 3
War Stroll
D - 3 / C+- 3
Hundred Years
B - 1 / C - 2
Moon King
B+ - 2 / B - 1
Realm
B+ - 1 / D - 4

[Redboard]

Current weather conditions are not available.

Race: 1

Changes

Time Posted

#5 Boalt Hall Scratched - Reason Unavailable 10:50 AM ET
#6 Metal Magic Scratched - Reason Unavailable 10:50 AM ET
#8 Black Doblin Scratched - Reason Unavailable 10:50 AM ET


This has to be the latest in the meet where Todd Pletcher hasn't won a 2YrOld race.

[Spiderman]

Saturday 0 % Precip. / 0 in
A mix of clouds and sun. High 84F. Winds light and variable.

[Spiderman]

:7: Moon King (3/1) - Can't figure out why this guy is 3/1. Highest earning sibling made $15k. The dam couldn't break her maiden, and the second one Kelli Cat never started. Interestingly though, Kelli Cat cost $1.75 million as a yearling. Someone willing to go deeper into this pedigree might explain why. This colt is likely going to be a better router, if anything.

check the workout tab and get of Seeking the Gold win 1st start 17%. With scratches will bet if 5-2+

[ManU918]

:4:

[NY BRED]

WHY THE SPA IS SO TOUGH

BASED ON BARCLAY'S RECORD, DESPITE THE SIRE,
SOMEHOW THE INSIDERS KNEW TO CAP HIM AT 11-1

NOT CERTAIN HOW MANY TIMES CORNELIO RIDES FOR
HIM

[Redboard]

..................


Longshot pick: :9: Realm (12/1)

Nice pick.