Intermediate Capper -- Which way to go?

[Capper Al]

He went for Faygo! (For my fellow Detroiters) Now to the topic.

Time is limited. Once we get an inkling that we have a rudimentary understanding of the game and decide to bring our computers into the fight to make money, we have a few options to specialize in. Two that I'm interesting in discussing are

1. Develop our own software and/or spreadsheet apps.
2. Fill a database with past performances and/or software output.

The point is that a person holding a job has time to specialize in one of the two at the expense of the other. Some might think they are doing both well, but what I'm looking at is the adventure in hunting for the treasure not generating output. The quest is in solving for the unknown, solving where the racing Holy Grail is hidden. And why are these two choice contrary to one another? Because of our limited time.

One can invest in computerize what amounts to an electronic P&P system coming up their own unique numbers and formulas that might work. Or one can collect numbers and data mine through the endless combination using public known factors usually provide by their data supplier. The conflict is that we can't both have a huge database with our formulated numbers while our numbers change every week or every month or every quarter if our app's and ideas change frequently usually on a dime. It comes down where are you going to find the truth? In the wilderness of the mainstream of a collective database of known data, or in the wilderness of your own system? These methods aren't exclusive of one another. For instance, I'm a computerized P&P developer. I check my outcomes for about 200 races on a spreadsheet to see what works. On the other, I know that the DB players write their queries to handicap and check their results.

What do you do and why?

Are you mostly an app developer, or a database developer? Do you believe that you are doing justice to both?

I'm looking forward to building my database once my rewrite is finished. Meanwhile, it's piecemeal on the db.

[jasperson]

I have a db with about 10000 races, but I didn't keep everything that I should have. Right now I don't think I can build a db starting over again that can compete with some of the other members of the forum which have been building for much longer. Therefore I am just going to build apps for the data I get from bris.

[Capper Al]

I have a db with about 10000 races, but I didn't keep everything that I should have. Right now I don't think I can build a db starting over again that can compete with some of the other members of the forum which have been building for much longer. Therefore I am just going to build apps for the data I get from bris.

Jack,

We are always amiss with whatever path we decide. The app developer doesn't have the depth of stats. The database developer is in a straight jacket blinded by data elements he follows. We all seem to jump into the game without reviewing our options.

[Capper Al]

The idea behind this discussion is to evaluate the path we take. Are we on the right path or are we wasting our time? It isn't only our path but what we accept as input to deduce our decisions from, mainly our data sources that will make us or break us. What's our recipe for success? The ingredients are our data sources. How we use these ingredients is determined along the path we develop on. Our handicapping methods are just a result of this interplay.

[jasperson]

Al, I do use small spreadsheets to compare any modification to my app to the old app. This is to see if the new app is an improvement over the old. Like I said building a huge db that keeps track of everything would take me too long. I would be dead before I had built a useful db. Maybe if we had a team of 10 or more members we could build something useful in about 10 yrs. Can you imagine trying to get 10 handicapper to agree on one thing? :D:D

[Capper Al]

Al, I do use small spreadsheets to compare any modification to my app to the old app. This is to see if the new app is an improvement over the old. Like I said building a huge db that keeps track of everything would take me too long. I would be dead before I had built a useful db. Maybe if we had a team of 10 or more members we could build something useful in about 10 yrs. Can you imagine trying to get 10 handicapper to agree on one thing? :D:D

No, I don't think they'd agree on everything. Time is the problem.

[MutuelClerk]

Rock n rye. Red pop. Orange. Love Faygo. Sorry, please continue.

[Capper Al]

Rock n rye. Red pop. Orange. Love Faygo. Sorry, please continue.

Rock n Rye was my favorite.

[passrace]

I like Nehi Grape.
ALF

[classhandicapper]

I think I'm in a pretty good place right now.

I have a database that makes tracking important information very easy. I push a button and I get the report covering whatever time frame and track I am interested in. It also allows me to do handicapping research on specific factors or handicapping questions as time permits. All that data supplements, shortens, and enhances my manual handicapping process. As time passes I keep adding reports.

[Dave Schwartz]

ClassicH,

I have a database that makes tracking important information very easy. I push a button and I get the report covering whatever time frame and track I am interested in. It also allows me to do handicapping research on specific factors or handicapping questions as time permits. All that data supplements, shortens, and enhances my manual handicapping process. As time passes I keep adding reports.

Could you take a little time and discuss a little about the tools you are using?

Database engine, programming language, etc.

Perhaps advice you'd offer someone who wished to tackle a project like this.

I am sure I am not the only one who would be interested.


Dave

[whodoyoulike]

The idea behind this discussion is to evaluate the path we take. Are we on the right path or are we wasting our time? It isn't only our path but what we accept as input to deduce our decisions from, mainly our data sources that will make us or break us. What's our recipe for success? The ingredients are our data sources. How we use these ingredients is determined along the path we develop on. Our handicapping methods are just a result of this interplay.

We're not going to be collaborating in a similar fashion as syndicates since we're competing against each other. But, I see no harm in focusing one's direction to a correct path. Everyone will have to figure out what the correct algorithms are for success.

I'll start this off if I understand your idea correctly.

:1: develop a beaten length adjustment for sprints and routes.

:2: build a db to provide you an estimate of the fractional and final times of the different types of races. The times at a "A" track will be different than a "B" or "C" track because of the quality of horses.

:3: watch replays.... how your selection(s) break from the gate and when they make their move(s).

[Capper Al]

We're not going to be collaborating in a similar fashion as syndicates since we're competing against each other. But, I see no harm in focusing one's direction to a correct path. Everyone will have to figure out what the correct algorithms are for success.

I'll start this off if I understand your idea correctly.

:1: develop a beaten length adjustment for sprints and routes.

:2: build a db to provide you an estimate of the fractional and final times of the different types of races. The times at a "A" track will be different than a "B" or "C" track because of the quality of horses.

:3: watch replays.... how your selection(s) break from the gate and when they make their move(s).

Once a speed formula is built and a loaded into a database then one shouldn't commingle their old speed figure in the database with any new speed figure. Sure running an activate database and R&D can coexist. But, with a one part time man IT shop, it's just easier (for me) to use spreadsheets until I finalize what I'm going to use. Once I can say this is my speed figure, and this is my class figure, etc-- then building a database makes sense; until then spreadsheets are better.

[classhandicapper]

ClassicH,



Could you take a little time and discuss a little about the tools you are using?

Database engine, programming language, etc.

Perhaps advice you'd offer someone who wished to tackle a project like this.

I am sure I am not the only one who would be interested.


Dave

Dave,

1. I am using an Access Database and Excel (mostly Access).

2. I load PP data from DRF Formulator and the results data from DRF.com into Access.

3. Some of the work I do privately I enter manually into Excel spreadsheets. I then import my own data into tables in my database and it's all tied together neatly.

4. I also have the ability to upload my personal data into Formulator so it's right in the PPs if I want.

5. 80% of what I do is simple queries against the data that are easy to create and use with Access.

6. 20% of what I do has been more complex queries that have been a little frustrating and time consuming to write and sometimes involve using Excel also. This is where I test handicapping theories and ideas against my own thoughts and prevailing wisdom looking for things people are misunderstanding so I can find value.

I would say that 1-5 is fairly easy once you get rolling. The more complex stuff is probably best done another way, but I am came into his cold and was not in mood to learn too many things at once. There was a whole thread I set up where I was asking questions and a lot of people were kind of enough to help me. I've been doing this for about 9 months.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=117713&highlight=database

[Capper Al]

I guess we all jump into handicapping without questioning our premises and sources of information first. To challenge our thought processes can be intimidating. After all, we spent all those years going down that path we jumped into. Such is life, I guess.