Beyer on Breeding

[highnote]

Did anyone read Beyer's latest article? It's about breeding. Not one mention of Dosage Theory.
He has always turned a cold shoulder to Dosage, so it's not surprising he didn't mention it.

Smarty Jones' dosage profile is 10-3-8-1-0 (22) Dosage Index = 3.40 CD = 1.00

It looks to be well within classic guidelines.

Elusive Quality, Smarty's sire, broke a track record at 7 furlongs and set a world record at a mile (correct me if I'm wrong). Beyer says Elusive Quality was a one dimensional speedster whose important victories were at 7 furlongs or a mile.

Just because a horse sets records at short distances doesn't mean he can't get a route of ground or that he can't sire horses who can't get a route of ground.

What's wrong with one dimensional speed? Fast is good. Remember Buck's Boy? He won BC Turf Classic gate to wire.

I visited the stud farm where Elusive Quality stands (name escapes me. all I can think of is Shadwell) the day after the Derby. Elusive is not built like a sprinter. He looked like a 10 furlong turf horse to me.

I find Beyer's argument unpersuasive.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

[kenwoodallpromos]

I just do not know how far back in pedigree you have to stop. Buckpasser and Secretatiat offspring won the most 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes.
Secretariat won it by 31; - my figuring based on 8' per length and rate of movement 55' per second, looks like Secretariat's runner up would have run it in 2:28 2/5- about what the average Belmont winner runs it in. My point is, Secretariat is Smarty Jones' greatgrandsire on the sire/sire's dam/sire's dam's sire side.
I think that makes for a possible TC gene in there somewhere.

[BeatTheChalk]

IMHO Andy needs a break in the action .. .. like we all do
sometimes....For him to come out NOW .. and talk breeding ??
sheeeshhh... SJ is from the Line of Mr Prospector .. what else
do we need to know here ? I dont know beans about breeding..
but somewhere I read .. that MP was an ok horse in the shed..
Now as for the Beyer numbers.. .. .. .. ..Take the best of the
last 3 on similar footing - for each horse. Go from there ..

[cj]

Random thoughts...

What exactly does a 10f horse look like? Does this mean he was big? I've always known sprinters to be bigger than routers.

Elusive Quality definitely could not get a route of ground. Of course, as you say, this doesn't mean he can't sire horses who can.

From Thorograph: Top horses who can get 1 1/8 miles can get 1 1/4 or 1 1/2 miles (paraphrase)

Dosage looks good, but his Tomlinson distance rating is poor...which one is better?

[chickenhead]

I have a question that may be even more off topic, but do they keep track of current horses height and weight anywhere that is accessible to the public?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Hong Kong- weight-I did not notice a difference the few I saw. You could figure how much a horse gained or lost and compare to a scale like for weights, for age, height, body type, amount of recent running.
Height- generally known I believe by auction time, DRF stories often give them.
I think build and type of leg action matters but I do not know of any stidies on any of the above but check search engines, Cornell U, UCDavis, U of Louisville, Australia.

[Wiley]

Saw on the Smarty Biography show the other night that he is only 15.2 hands high which is tiny compared to some of the great 12F runners like Point Given, Risen Star and Secretariat who were all I think in the 17 hands range. Efficiency of stride and how they move over the track probably means more than overall size as a horse like Bet Twice was not very big but smoked in his Belmont though his breeding was much more in line with a 12F runner than Smarty in my opinion.

[highnote]

[i]
What exactly does a 10f horse look like? Does this mean he was big? I've always known sprinters to be bigger than routers.

Elusive Quality definitely could not get a route of ground. Of course, as you say, this doesn't mean he can't sire horses who can.

From Thorograph: Top horses who can get 1 1/8 miles can get 1 1/4 or 1 1/2 miles (paraphrase)

Dosage looks good, but his Tomlinson distance rating is poor...which one is better? [/B]

The 10f turf horses I've seen come in two varieties:

1. Kind of a barrel shaped body and not necessarily tall. I've seen a lot of French and British imports look like this. And that's what Elusive Quality reminded me of.

2. Tall, deep chested types. These kind look like they could go well on turf or dirt over a route of ground.

According to a racing journalist friend of mine there was a French trainer who said, when asked whether his charge could stay the 12 furlong distance, "Any horse can stay 12 furlongs, it's just a matter of how fast." He wasn't being facetious, he was just stating a fact. So just because Elusive Quality's most important victories where not at classic distances doesn't mean he couldn't stay the distance. Plus, maybe he wasn't trained to stay a route of ground? Maybe he couldn't rate? If he was a one dimensional front runner with only one gear he might have been hard pressed to stay the classic distances. I know I saw him run in the past, but I can't say that I actually remember his races.

I'd say there is something to the Thorograph statement -- I'd say Favorite Trick outran his pedigree. Doesn't his sire Phone Trick sire quarterhorses, too?

I haven't studied the Tomlinson ratings, but Dosage has a pretty good record in the KY Derby. There are a few hiccups, but overall the record is pretty good.

According to Steve Roman (and I paraphrase):

When studying pedigree you need to focus on more than the track performance of the sire and dam. You also need to look at stud contributions from close up ancestors.

For Smarty Jones, 5 of the 7 sires in his first three generations are either classic winners or had already sired a Grade 1 winner at a classic distance.

He says you can't just look at what a horse's ancestors did on the track, you have to look at what they passed along at stud and that this is the fundamental flaw in pedigree analysis.

That seems to me a huge distinction -- track performance of ancestors compared to what is passed along at stud.