dilanesp
07-18-2015, 08:55 PM
OK, I got murdered on opening day. Let's try to do better.
1st: :1: Keezheekoni. I like post one with this speed horse. She drops from a starter allowance back to the level where she ran really nice one race back, and also has to run 1/16th of a mile less this time. The starter allowance she came out of was a key race that produced two next race winners. She's sprinted on the dirt six times and been in the money four of them. Hopefully the switch to Bejarano will mean that he will hustle the horse out of the gate (he's kind of forced to with the rail post), because without a lot of ton of speed drawn outside of her, that's her best shot to win here.
2nd: :6: Miss Loujean. Her pace figure going 5 1/2 furlongs was very strong, and last year she finished second in a 5 furlong turf sprint at Del Mar, so she can get this trip. I think she's the quickest of the quick here, and she only has to hold on for five panels.
3rd: :3: Sheza Eyeopener. This is a paceless two turn mile, so I certainly want to bet someone with tactical speed. She drops out of a starter allowance where she ran decently, and she came back to work :47 3/5, so she looks like she is fit. She's hit the board 7 times in 15 dirt route starts.
4th: :8: Inexcess Again. Second time starter in a maiden race, for a barn that wins with over a quarter of its second time starters. Clockers were impressed by the July 5 workout, and he showed speed in his first start. Any significant improvement and he should win here. I will use :4: Disco Boy in exotics; he looks like a live first time starter based on his barn, breeding, and workouts.
5th: :8: Perfectly Majestic. I am very big on the sustained pace number in turf routes in Southern California, and this horse ran a very good number one race back, before shortening up and breaking his maiden down the hill. He also has a class edge-- even though he is coming out of a maiden race, he lost a stakes race in a photo finish two races back. He's also lightly raced in a race full of horses who have had a lot of starts and not many wins. He has room to improve whereas his competitors generally do not.
6th: :4: C.C. Zipp. All eleven horses entered are first time starters; this horse is from the Hollendorfer barn, has good works, and good breeding, gets Mike Smith, and the Baffert horse (Pretty N Cool) figures to be overbet, so he might pay a better price.
8th: :5: Prize Exhibit. Her last two races had excellent sustained pace numbers, and I really liked her last race where she took a big step forward. Winning a grass stakes race by more than a couple of lengths is hard to do and hugely impressive; doing it coming from last place is more so.
9th: :10: Ultimate Luck. Ran a good pace figure two races back at 6 1/2 furlongs; throw out the last two: one was a race he couldn't get close to the pace at 5 1/2 furlongs, the other was on the grass. Now he drops in class. I'm hoping Guttierrez can forwardly place him and get him involved early; that seems to be the secret with this horse.
10th: :8: Second Summer. This horse has been working a hole in the wind and is ready to fire off a layoff. As a 2 year old, over the Del Mar turf course, he ran a bang up race to get beat 1/2 a length while recording a fabulous sustained pace number. I expect him to run back to that race and fire in this spot.
1st: :1: Keezheekoni. I like post one with this speed horse. She drops from a starter allowance back to the level where she ran really nice one race back, and also has to run 1/16th of a mile less this time. The starter allowance she came out of was a key race that produced two next race winners. She's sprinted on the dirt six times and been in the money four of them. Hopefully the switch to Bejarano will mean that he will hustle the horse out of the gate (he's kind of forced to with the rail post), because without a lot of ton of speed drawn outside of her, that's her best shot to win here.
2nd: :6: Miss Loujean. Her pace figure going 5 1/2 furlongs was very strong, and last year she finished second in a 5 furlong turf sprint at Del Mar, so she can get this trip. I think she's the quickest of the quick here, and she only has to hold on for five panels.
3rd: :3: Sheza Eyeopener. This is a paceless two turn mile, so I certainly want to bet someone with tactical speed. She drops out of a starter allowance where she ran decently, and she came back to work :47 3/5, so she looks like she is fit. She's hit the board 7 times in 15 dirt route starts.
4th: :8: Inexcess Again. Second time starter in a maiden race, for a barn that wins with over a quarter of its second time starters. Clockers were impressed by the July 5 workout, and he showed speed in his first start. Any significant improvement and he should win here. I will use :4: Disco Boy in exotics; he looks like a live first time starter based on his barn, breeding, and workouts.
5th: :8: Perfectly Majestic. I am very big on the sustained pace number in turf routes in Southern California, and this horse ran a very good number one race back, before shortening up and breaking his maiden down the hill. He also has a class edge-- even though he is coming out of a maiden race, he lost a stakes race in a photo finish two races back. He's also lightly raced in a race full of horses who have had a lot of starts and not many wins. He has room to improve whereas his competitors generally do not.
6th: :4: C.C. Zipp. All eleven horses entered are first time starters; this horse is from the Hollendorfer barn, has good works, and good breeding, gets Mike Smith, and the Baffert horse (Pretty N Cool) figures to be overbet, so he might pay a better price.
8th: :5: Prize Exhibit. Her last two races had excellent sustained pace numbers, and I really liked her last race where she took a big step forward. Winning a grass stakes race by more than a couple of lengths is hard to do and hugely impressive; doing it coming from last place is more so.
9th: :10: Ultimate Luck. Ran a good pace figure two races back at 6 1/2 furlongs; throw out the last two: one was a race he couldn't get close to the pace at 5 1/2 furlongs, the other was on the grass. Now he drops in class. I'm hoping Guttierrez can forwardly place him and get him involved early; that seems to be the secret with this horse.
10th: :8: Second Summer. This horse has been working a hole in the wind and is ready to fire off a layoff. As a 2 year old, over the Del Mar turf course, he ran a bang up race to get beat 1/2 a length while recording a fabulous sustained pace number. I expect him to run back to that race and fire in this spot.