Ray Taulbot visits DMR and the SPAAAAA

[atlasaxis]

Using the Taulbot pace calc software I'll be giving my selections for both DMR and SAR.

Selection is to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt.

Fri 071715

DMR Day 2 (missed day 1)

R1 - np
R2 - 4
R3 - 1
R4 - np
R5 - 8
R6 - 3
R7 - 10
R8 - np

Best wishes to all the players.

[atlasaxis]

Using the Taulbot pace calc software I'll be giving my selections for both DMR and SAR.

Selection is to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt.

Fri 071715

DMR Day 2 (missed day 1)

R1 - np
R2 - 4
R3 - 1
R4 - np
R5 - 8
R6 - 3
R7 - 10 scr
R8 - np

Best wishes to all the players.

Today: 4 selections, $8 wagered, $0 returned, 0 winner
To date: 4 selections, $8 wagered, $0 returned, 0 winner



Selection is to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt.

Sat 071815

DMR Day 3

R1 - 3
R2 - 2
R3 - np
R4 - 1
R5 - 4
R6 - 7
R7 - np
R8 - 10
R9 - 2
R10 - 5

Best wishes to all the players.

[pandy]

"A winning horse either sets or overcomes the pace of the race it runs against" -

I've often said that a good horse finishes well against the pace of the race, which is similar to the Taulbot quote you have. My problem with the Taulbot pace calculator, it picks horses that can't finish. Yes, these horses do win sometimes and sometimes they even win at prices. But the system is flawed in that it picks a lot of horses that get weak knees in the stretch. It's not a good rating, but it can be used to create a better rating.

[atlasaxis]

Selection is to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt.

Sat 071815

DMR Day 3

R1 - 3 (3rd @ 5-1)
R2 - 2
R3 - np
R4 - 1 (2nd @ 11-1)
R5 - 4
R6 - 7 np (wins @ 5/2)
R7 - np
R8 - 10 scr
R9 - 2 (2nd @ 9-1)
R10 - 5 scr
Best wishes to all the players.

Today: 5 selections, $10 wagered, $0 returned, 0 winner
To date: 9 selections, $18 wagered, $0 returned, 0 winners


Selection is to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt.

Sun 071915

DMR Day 4

R1 - 1
R2 - np
R3 - 3
R4 - np
R5 - 11
R6 - np
R7 - 6
R8 - 9
R9 - 10
R10 - 10

Best wishes to all the players.

[magwell]

"A winning horse either sets or overcomes the pace of the race it runs against" -

I've often said that a good horse finishes well against the pace of the race, which is similar to the Taulbot quote you have. My problem with the Taulbot pace calculator, it picks horses that can't finish. Yes, these horses do win sometimes and sometimes they even win at prices. But the system is flawed in that it picks a lot of horses that get weak knees in the stretch. It's not a good rating, but it can be used to create a better rating.This is true, but if I could have the horse in front after a 1/2 mile in every race no matter it's odds or distance, like just 20 across, it would be like a private ATM machine, problem is that system cant guarantee the horse in front after the first 1/2 that's the flaw........ :cool:

[NorCalGreg]

Selection is to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt.

Sun 071915

DMR Day 4

R1 - 1
R2 - np
R3 - 3
R4 - np
R5 - 11
R6 - np
R7 - 6
R8 - 9
R9 - 10
R10 - 10

Best wishes to all the players.

R3 :3: SHEZAEYEOPENER

R4 :11: PAPAS PLAYBOY

R5 :7: GRACHUS THE HUNTER

R8 :5: PRIZE EXHIBIT

R10 :2: POYTHRESS

Atlasaxis: I've looked for Taulbot's pace software for awhile....not to be found anywhere....if you wanna trade I've got some others you may be interested in-NorcalGreg

[atlasaxis]

"A winning horse either sets or overcomes the pace of the race it runs against" -

I've often said that a good horse finishes well against the pace of the race, which is similar to the Taulbot quote you have. My problem with the Taulbot pace calculator, it picks horses that can't finish. Yes, these horses do win sometimes and sometimes they even win at prices. But the system is flawed in that it picks a lot of horses that get weak knees in the stretch. It's not a good rating, but it can be used to create a better rating.

Hi Pandy, thanks for your thoughts. My results with it since 2004, however, say otherwise. I agree with Dr. Howard Sartin in his articles about the pace calc, that the flaw seems not to be with the system itself, but with the way people use it. (see https://www.americanturf.com/pace/sartinarticle.cfm).

While his articles are about the manual pace calc, and I use the software, they are applicable to the software as well. Back in 2010 I had the good fortune to meet one of the members here on PA whose best friend Andy, a gentleman 80 years of age, had been using the manual pace calc for 50 years. The man kept meticulous records that showed an roi many here would give their eye teeth for. Others here know who I am talking about as these 2 gentleman tutored us (a group of 18) with daily notes through email on how this man so successfully used the pace calc.

Sadly, Andy became ill and passed away shortly after the tutoring began. I was hoping to get a comparison between the manual pace cal and the software, to see if it came up with the same pace line selection and ultimately the same rating, but that never occured. The notes however helped refine my selection process to the positive, for wich I will be forever grateful.

On any given day in real time play, I may, MAY, come up with 1 or 2 plays for the day at any one track. Del Mar and Saratoga are not on my list of staple tracks that I play simply because of many other variables occuring at these 2 places. But it's fun to see how this ancient, flawed system holds up against arguably the 2 greatest racing venues in the world. A few years back I posted my picks for the entire Saratoga meet and while my win % was pretty low, my average mutuel was a little over $16 with a (+) roi. Not too shabby. It will be fun to see how these 2 meets play out this year.

Atlasaxis: I've looked for Taulbot's pace software for awhile....not to be found anywhere....if you wanna trade I've got some others you may be interested in-NorcalGreg

Thanks NorcalGreg for the offer, but I'm very content with this software. I'm pretty sure they still sell the software at American Turf Monthly, but from what I understand it only works on 32 bit systems and not 64 bit. But I could be wrong about that.

[pandy]

thanks for the reply, very useful. I've read that ATM piece before but it is interesting. I'm been working on a method that picks horses that finished well against the pace of the race, which is really an important key to handicapping.

Let me ask you, are you using it for sprints only or both sprints and routes?

I can't run it anymore because it doesn't work on newer computers.

[pandy]

Atlaslaxis, are you using the 5 length rule at the finish for all horses?

[atlasaxis]

Let me ask you, are you using it for sprints only or both sprints and routes
I will use it for either providing at least 3/4 of the field are given a rating.

Atlaslaxis, are you using the 5 length rule at the finish for all horses?
In reading Ray's old articles (50's), I see he went to 5.75, so that's what I'm using.

[atlasaxis]

Selection is to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt.
Sun 071915
DMR Day 4

R1 - 1
R2 - np
R3 - 3
R4 - np
R5 - 11 scr
R6 - np
R7 - 6 np < 3-1
R8 - 9
R9 - 10
R10 - 10 $8.00

Today: 5 selections, $10 wagered, $8.00 returned, 1 winner
To date: 14 selections, $28 wagered, $8.00 returned, 1 winner
Selection is to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt.
Wed 072215
DMR Day 5

R1 - 5
R2 - 2
R3 - 5
R4 - np
R5 - 5
R6 - 3
R7 - 1
R8 - np

Best wishes to all the players.

[atlasaxis]

Selection is to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt.
Wed 072215
DMR Day 5

R1 - 5 $24.00
R2 - 2 (closed strong for 2nd @ 15-1)
R3 - 5
R4 - np
R5 - 5
R6 - 3
R7 - 1
R8 - np

Today: 6 selections, $12 wagered, $24.00 returned, 1 winner
To date: 20 selections, $40 wagered, $32.00 returned, 2 winners

Selection is to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt.
Wed 072315
DMR Day 6

R1 - np
R2 - 6
R3 - 8
R4 - np
R5 - np
R6 - 8
R7 - 8
R8 - 6

Best wishes to all the players.

[NorCalGreg]

I'm in a watch and see mode with the pace calc software--but I was gonna go ahead and pull the trigger on the :1: horse in the 2nd today @ MNR ROCKABYE since he was 8-1 ML. Taulbot's had him right on top--but I wimped out and passed. Paid $14.80win - I see you hit a nice one the other day--good luck :)

[atlasaxis]

I'm in a watch and see mode with the pace calc software--but I was gonna go ahead and pull the trigger on the :1: horse in the 2nd today @ MNR ROCKABYE since he was 8-1 ML. Taulbot's had him right on top--but I wimped out and passed. Paid $14.80win - I see you hit a nice one the other day--good luck :)

Thanks NCG, my best to you!

Selection is to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt.
Wed 072315
DMR Day 6

R1 - np
R2 - 6
R3 - 8
R4 - np
R5 - np
R6 - 8
R7 - 8
R8 - 6

Today: 5 selections, $10 wagered, $0 returned, 0 winner
To date: 25 selections, $50 wagered, $32.00 returned, 2 winners

FIRST selection is to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt.
Fri 072415

DMR Day 7

R2 - 6, 2, 3, 5
R4 - 6, 13, 10, 8
R5 - 1, 7, 9, 5
R6 - 5, 2, 7, 4
R7 - 3, 7, 4, 9

SAR Day 1

R1 - 5, 1, 6, 3
R4 - 6, 1, 8, 5
R5 - 11, 1, 13, 7
R7 - 3, 2, 1, 11
R8 - 8, 4, 6, 3
R9 - 12, 8, 1, 11
R10 - 15, 14, 13, 2, 16, 4, 8

Best wishes to all the players.

[atlasaxis]

FIRST selection is to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt.
Sat 072515

SAR Day 2

R2 - 9, 7, 4, 6
R4 - 3, 4, 7, 1
R6 - 8, 9, 4, 11
R7 - 4, 3, 2, 9
R8 - 3, 7, 12, 1
R9 - 9, 8, 6, 2
R10 - 4, 2, 6, 3
R11 - 4, 10, 2, 1

DMR Day 8

R1 - 1, 6, 7, 4
R2 - 10, 1, 6, 11
R3 - 6, 4, 5, 1
R4 - 6, 7, 9, 1
R5 - 10, 4, 1, 2
R7 - 1, 12, 14, 9
R8 - 4, 8, 5, 6
R9 - 5, 3, 1, 2
R10 - 10, 7, 2, 13

Best wishes to all the players.

[atlasaxis]

FIRST selection is to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt.
Sun 072615

SAR Day 3
R1 - 6, 2, 5, 3
R2 - 1, 5, 2, 8
R3 - 4, 7, 8, 6
R4 - 2, 1, 4, 8
R5 - 7, 3, 2, 5
R6 - 10, 1, 2, 9
R7 - 10, 4, 11, 1
R8 - 1, 11, 5, 3
R9 - 11, 8, 6, 10
R10 - 3, 1, 4, 8
R11 - 5, 4, 1, 10

DMR Day 9

R1 - 6, 2, 4, 5
R2 - 4, 1, 3, 2
R3 - 5, 6, 3, 2
R4 - 5, 1, 9, 10
R5 - 8, 4, 5, 14
R6 - 5, 6, 4, 2
R7 - np
R8 - 3, 5, 8, 7
R9 - 1, 2, 4, 10
R10 - 14, 4, 9, 11

Best wishes to all the players.

[NorCalGreg]

hmmmm....this is weird---for the 8th @ DM with Pace Calc I have the :5: WEEWINNIN by a very large margin (over 20 total pts) he paid $21.60. I noticed you had the :3: on top. Don't know if my settings are default or not but I haven't changed anything, since I received it from another board member. I have Bris unlimited, so I've scanned a ton of tracks, and so far found that Routes seem to produce more winners than sprints (which makes sense--pace vs speed) Today I looked for 6-1+ ML in Routes with a gap of 10 or more- and found 8 plays. Hit just the 1 @ DM for the 21.60...I'll keep you posted as far as future results. Good luck AT
-NCG

BTW anyone else using Taulbot Pace Calc software wanna compare notes--hit me up :ThmbUp:

[Capper Al]

"A winning horse either sets or overcomes the pace of the race it runs against" -

I've often said that a good horse finishes well against the pace of the race, which is similar to the Taulbot quote you have. My problem with the Taulbot pace calculator, it picks horses that can't finish. Yes, these horses do win sometimes and sometimes they even win at prices. But the system is flawed in that it picks a lot of horses that get weak knees in the stretch. It's not a good rating, but it can be used to create a better rating.

So how do you handle this? Somehow include stretch?

[pandy]

So how do you handle this? Somehow include stretch?

Yes, in my Diamond Rating, I average the pace call, final time and final quarter. Since the pace call is a higher percentage of the total time than the last quarter, it still creates a rating that gives more credit to horses that showed speed, as it should, but horses that finish like gangbusters also get credit. The weak link in the pace calculator ratings, and in all of the Sartin-Brohamer ratings (except LP) is that they are too early speed weighted. I've tested Average Pace against my Diamond Rating and AP is not competitive against it, even though in many cases they pick the same horse. But AP misses a lot of the longshot winners.

Yesterday at Saratoga there was a perfect example of this. I have a feature in the Diamond System were the user can print a consensus box which shows the top 3 ranked Diamond Ratings but is also shows the top 3 Average Pace, Early Speed, and Late Speed. Yesterday Average Pace had 3 winners, $6, $7.20 and Curlina $3.80. The Diamond Rating also had 3 winners, the same $6 and $7.20 horses and Face Of Winner $47.40. The Diamond System put I'm A Chatterbox on top of Curlina and Chatterbox ran 1st but was dq'd. But the key was Face Of Winner. Both AP and DIAMOND used he same paceline, the May 24th race at Gulfstream, which was Face Of Winner's best speed figure when he broke his maiden by 14 lengths. AP left him out of the money. Diamond had him on top. Why? Because he ran a huge last quarter. His Bris LP rating for that race was 103. Any compounded rating that does not include late speed is seriously lacking. The ironic thing is that there are all of these Sartin fans out there who apparently still use those ratings but they really aren't very good.

By the way, on my handicappingwinners.com website Free Picks page I've been posting the Diamond picks for Del Mar and Saratoga every day. And, I've also been testing a new spot play system that is even more late speed oriented, and it has shown a substantial profit so far.

[Capper Al]

Dave Schwartz claimed the late pace has a better ROI than early pace. My limited research tends to agree.

[atlasaxis]

Selections are to win providing they're 3-1 or greater at pt.
Mon 072715

SAR Day 4
R2 - 6
R3 - 2
R4 - 2
R5 - 4
R6 - 9
R7 - 1
R8 - 9, 4
R9 - 6

[NorCalGreg]

By the way, on my handicappingwinners.com website Free Picks page I've been posting the Diamond picks for Del Mar and Saratoga every day. And, I've also been testing a new spot play system that is even more late speed oriented, and it has shown a substantial profit so far.

You know I ordered your Diamond software, Pandy. Here was my problem with it. Who wants a dozen different colums of numbers? Some are speed, some pace, some are old methods, all claiming to be better than what's out there now. Fine, Pandy. It would take months to go through all that and find what works for me and what doesn't. Plus it's cumbersome Multi-File Bris. See what I'm saying? You're longshot Pace paper and pencil method is great, as I pmed you, but that's not going to software. I, and probably many others, would GLADLY pay ONE HUNDRED US AMERICAN DOLLARS for software that is single file bris, and only has your early speed rating, and diamond rating. I wish you could make that happen, Pandy.
I'm sure others are happy with the Diamond Software---this is just my opinion. :)

[pandy]

You know I ordered your Diamond software, Pandy. Here was my problem with it. Who wants a dozen different colums of numbers? Some are speed, some pace, some are old methods, all claiming to be better than what's out there now. Fine, Pandy. It would take months to go through all that and find what works for me and what doesn't. Plus it's cumbersome Multi-File Bris. See what I'm saying? You're longshot Pace paper and pencil method is great, as I pmed you, but that's not going to software. I, and probably many others, would GLADLY pay ONE HUNDRED US AMERICAN DOLLARS for software that is single file bris, and only has your early speed rating, and diamond rating. I wish you could make that happen, Pandy.
I'm sure others are happy with the Diamond Software---this is just my opinion. :)


Well, it shows the ESR and Diamond, so you could ignore the others. Yeah, I wish I could get it to work with the single file, it only works with multi file or trackmaster exe.

Thanks for the input and good comments on the Pace Handicapping Longshots. I'm testing something new on my website on free picks page. It looks promising.

[Capper Al]

I'll be reading my Pandy Pace book. In my previous version (and again in my rewrite), I used BRIS pace with BRIS race shapes. It worked well, especially combined with Giles.

[pandy]

I'll be reading my Pandy Pace book. In my previous version (and again in my rewrite), I used BRIS pace with BRIS race shapes. It worked well, especially combined with Giles.

Thank you. The race shapes are excellent. I wonder how many people use the ones in the Moss pace figures DRF report.

[atlasaxis]

Selections are to win providing they're 3-1 or greater at pt.
Wed 072915

SAR Day 5
R1 - 9
R2 - 3
R3 - 1, 9
R4 - 4, 3
R5 - 3
R6 - 7, 4
R7 - 12, 1
R8 - 9, 10
R9 - 1
R10 - 8, 4

DMR Day 10
R1 - 7
R2 - 4
R3 - 5
R4 - 6, 11
R5 - np
R6 - 1
R7 - 7
R8 - 10

[atlasaxis]

Selections are to win providing they're 3-1 or greater at pt.
Wed 072915

SAR Day 5
R1 - 9 (np)
R2 - 3 (np, win - $4.60)
R3 - 1, 9 (1 - np; 9 - $9.40)
R4 - 4, 3 (np)
R5 - 3 out
R6 - 7, 4 (7 - np; 4 - $9.40)
R7 - 12, 1 (1 - np; 12 - out)
R8 - 9, 10 (9 - out; 10 - $30.00)
R9 - 1 out
R10 - 8, 4 (4 - np; 8 - out)

Today: 8 selections, $16 wagered, $48.40 returned, 3 winners

DMR Day 10
R1 - 7 np
R2 - 4 out
R3 - 5 out
R4 - 6, 11 (6 - out; 11 - scr)
R5 - np
R6 - 1 scr
R7 - 7 out
R8 - 10 out

Today: 5 selections, $10 wagered, $0 returned, 0 winners

Selections are to win providing they're 3-1 or greater at pt.
Thurs 073015

SAR Day 6
R1 - 9
R2 - 1
R3 - np
R4 - 4
R5 - np
R6 - 4, 5
R7 - 5, 1
R8 - 2
R9 - 4
R10 - 3

DMR Day 11
R1 - 5, 6
R2 - 6, 3
R3 - 6, 3
R4 - np
R5 - 7
R6 - 1
R7 - 10
R8 - 2

[pandy]

What happened to the pace calculator picks?

[NorCalGreg]

What happened to the pace calculator picks?

Pandy I think I recall Atlas saying he would post for a month or so and see how that went. I personally started off well, then sorta crashed and burned.
How's the new method doing?
Good Luck

-NCG

[pandy]

Good. You can check it out on my free picks page on my website. I've also been posting Diamond picks for Spa and DMR and the top pick has a profit at both meets. I also started testing an alternative pick. People don't always how to use systems to maximize ROI.

As for the Pace Calculator, it is flawed, but I would imagine that with a few adjustments it could be improved.

[mikesal57]

The theory is not flawed!!
Its mostly user error...

I have a friend that lived on betting early horses ....
He's doing it for 60+ years....
He never plays high profile tracks or races...he plays tracks like Mountaineer, Penn National, Parx and Arlington..his class races are 5000,7500,etc...NW2,NW3,NW4. he bets when his horse is at 4-1 or better..
Think about it , these lowly horses barely can run , now imagine them trying to catch a early advantage horse.. :eek:
Early advantage pertaining to E1 and E2 , if you can control these fractions your 3 quarters of the way home.
Most of the time their late fractions are abysmal but catch them at the right time and you can get big balloons....
The key word here is..."at the right time"
You need to be very patient and wait it out..

Check out this race...Who is the early horse?

Penn 3Rd race Aug 15

http://www.trks2day.com/saturday.html
Go collect 10-1 odds..

Mike

[pandy]

I totally agree with you about early speed and the lower profile tracks. My point is that there are much better pace programs than the Taulbot Pace Calculator.

[mikesal57]

I totally agree with you about early speed and the lower profile tracks. My point is that there are much better pace programs than the Taulbot Pace Calculator.

Never tried it..
But if people are adventurous...they could make your own via spreadsheet..
I'm not an Excel expert but it was a rewarding task to learn and play around with it....
and kudos to Raybo and his Alldata project that got me started

Mike

[lamboguy]

Never tried it..
But if people are adventurous...they could make your own via spreadsheet..
I'm not an Excel expert but it was a rewarding task to learn and play around with it....
and kudos to Raybo and his Alldata project that got me started

Mikei saw some of your work and i have to congratulate you on doing one fine job on this very tough meet

[mikesal57]

i saw some of your work and i have to congratulate you on doing one fine job on this very tough meet

I appreciate the compliment...
I didn't post Sunday because getting over 100 views each day and no comments ..thought I was wasting my time posting..
Sunday I played 5 exacta's boxing my 3 selections and hit all 5 for a +125% ROI..

Mike

[lamboguy]

I appreciate the compliment...
I didn't post Sunday because getting over 100 views each day and no comments ..thought I was wasting my time posting..
Sunday I played 5 exacta's boxing my 3 selections and hit all 5 for a +125% ROI..

Mike
i usually say something when i see some good posts, but i am betting on every harness and thoroughbred track and get worn down throughout the day. then i look at the posts and saw that you were doing real well. i wish i had played them but i never saw them until the wee hours of the morning. i love seeing someone win at this because i know how tough it is to win.

keep up the good work

[Capper Al]

Do you wager on Ray's pick?