Del Mar Opening Day Selections

[dilanesp]

So, I did this.

1st: :9: Dress Code. Race seems to set up for him; there's basically 8 speed horses drawn inside of him in a two turn race. His last effort was good on the grass in a key race, and he's 6 for 20 lifetime on dirt.

2nd: :6: Two Step Flor. And this race sets up for her. She's got enough speed to clear the field and never look back. The last time she was entered anywhere near this low, she won easily.

3rd: :9: Celtic Ray. His first two races were on surfaces he didn't like. Now he takes the biggest drop in racing (special weights to maiden claimers) and switches to a surface that he worked out well on and impressed the clockers. He's also lightly raced which is always a positive in cheap maiden races.

5th: :6: Miles Sister. Best bet on the card. I have been waiting to bet this horse ever since her debut. In a two year old 5 furlong maiden race, she broke well, and then started dropping back. Way back. She just looked like she couldn't keep up. And then, at the 1/4 pole, when she was so far back that she had no chance of winning, jockey Sal Gonzalez gave her a quarter mile workout down the Santa Anita stretch, and she FLEW like she had just robbed a bank, and somehow managed to get third. I can't remember the last time I saw anything like this. She's also related to a bunch of winners (her dam, Fair Bianca, has another one in the yearling sales next month and that might be a good gamble for anyone who wants to buy a horse).

6th: :2: Basmati. The pace figures say this horse, with his inside post position, will get the lead. Hess claimed him in Indiana, waited out the jail period after claiming him and dropped him a bit off the claim-- he wants to win now. He was in very good form in Indiana and should fire here.

7th: :8: Fight Thru. This looks fairly obvious. He's lightly raced, has tactical speed, and if he repeats his last he should easily win this. He has a class edge-- he broke his maiden in a straight maiden race but is eligible for this starter allowance because he had earlier run in maiden claimer.

8th: :9: Anytime Anyplace. A price play-- he was up there with the two favorites here ( :10: and :11: ) in the Pasadena Stakes in March. This is his second race off a layoff and he is working really well, but he will go off at better odds than the other two. He also has more tactical speed and may get a better trip from his outside post.

10th: :12: Unusually Green. He has excellent sustained pace numbers, which are very important in grass routes in Southern California. I love his 59 2/5 workout on July 2, and he gets 1/16th of a mile longer to unleash his ferocious late run here.

[Ocala Mike]

My price play in the 8th (contest race) is the :3: , TRIED AND TRUE. Has the breeding and the connections; hoping he gets first run at the speeds, and holds off the closers. Very tough opening day feature.

[olddaddy]

The :10: in 4th is sort of interesting.

[horses4courses]

:6: Dreamologist has been working holes in the wind for Mandella

First time starter was scratched at SA a couple of weeks back
due to a foot problem. Apparently a minor issue, this white filly
should be ready to roll. Don't expect the 7-2 M/L, though.

[Stillriledup]

Dress code wears an extension blinker and has a washed up jock, he's a talented horse though but tricky to ride.

[raybo]

I posted picks for opening day on my little forum yesterday. I used the same rankings method for all races, "PFV" which stands for Power, Form, and Velocities. The switch from synthetic to El Segundo sand on the main track may play havoc with those picks as all my testing at Del Mar was based on the old surface.

Here is that posting showing my playable races and picks/win contenders (the first pick is my play in each playable race with it's morning line odds in parenthesis, and keep in mind that these are before scratches):

I'm going to post my picks for tomorrow's card at Del Mar (opening day). Keep in mind that the main track surface has been switched from synthetic to El Segundo sand, just like Santa Anita, so expect a fast surface. These picks were based on my testing of the 2014 summer meet, which includes the synthetic surface for the main track, but the PFV method's top pick outperformed all the others significantly, so I expect it to outperform on the new surface also. I will not play any 6.5f, 11f, or 12f races, so race #6 is an automatic pass as a 6.5f race. I will list all 3 picks for PFV, in case of scratches, but the remaining top ranked horse will be the only play.

Race 1 - 9 (9/2 ML) - 10 7
Race 2 - 2 (7/2 ML) - 6 5
Race 3 - 7 (5/1 M/L) - 11 4
Race 4 - pass due to 2 horses having no qualified races (before scratches) (picks - 1 (4/1 ML) - 7 4)
Race 5 - Pass due to 8 horses not having qualified races (picks - 5 (7/2 ML) - 6 10)
Race 6 - pass (6.5f race) (picks - 2 (4/1 ML) - 10 9)
Race 7 - 8 (5/2 ML) - 5 2
Race 8 - pass due to 5 horses not having qualified races (picks - 10 (5/2 ML) - 11 9)
Race 9 - pass due to 8 horses not having qualified races (picks - 2 (6/1 ML) - 7 10)
Race 10 - 1 (6/1 ML) - 12 3

Good luck!!

[theiman]

:6: Dreamologist has been working holes in the wind for Mandella

First time starter was scratched at SA a couple of weeks back
due to a foot problem. Apparently a minor issue, this white filly
should be ready to roll. Don't expect the 7-2 M/L, though.

Better chance Dreamologist was scratched because he had the rail then a foot problem. He worked 6 days after the scratch(race 5 on June 20th), in 1.11.3.

He will have a lot of money on him today, but probably too low for my liking.

[Poindexter]

Very wide open and competitive races. Here is my fair line. All commentary welcome. Horses marked ne, I will not bet at any price. Good Luck.

Race 1)
1) 6
2) 20
3) scr
4) 8
5) scr
6) 25
7) 20
8) 10
9) 5
10) 9/2
11) scr
12) 30 ne
13) 6

2nd
1) 13
2) 5
3) 20
4) scr
5) 3
6) 6
7) 12
8) 20
9) 16
10) 12
11) 100 ne
12) 25

3rd)

1) 25
2) 1000 ne
3) 3
4) 12
5) 50 ne
6) scr
7) 15
8) 8
9) 20
10) 50 ne
11) 4
12) 6
13) scr

4th)
1) 6
2) 16
3) 7/2
4) 20
5) 25
6) 7/2
7) 9/2
8) 30
9) 30
10) 30 ne

5th)
no line, obviously 5&6 look best of those who have run. will wait for the toteboard to make wagers.

6th)
1) 16
2) 6
3) 7
4) 5
5) 20
6) 7
7) 30 ne
8) 100 ne
9) 25
10) 3

7th)
1) 30
2) 6
3) 30
4) 30 ne
5) 10
6) 8
7) 5/2
8) 5
9) 12
10) 25

8)
1) 8
2) 30 ne
3) 15
4) 30
5) 25
6) 100 ne
7) 20
8) scr
9) 15
10) 5/2
11) 7/2
12) 100 ne



9th race too many 1st time starters

10th) Tough race The 1-2-3-7-12 look like the main contenders to me, do not see a lot of separation, so will look for about 8-1 plus on any of those guys. 11 I consider next best. Pace wise, I assume that It is Living Water and Global Magician on the stretchout make the running at a fairly solid pace, Benba and Fritz stalk and Unusually Will try to come from last to first.

Good luck.

[ultracapper]

#4 Ink Well in the 3rd

[whodoyoulike]

Race 1 cl12500 8f 3up $26k

:10: american act (5/1) ..... I show him improving in form and finishing in 97 +/-.

[letswastemoney]

I don't really like Miles Sister, or at least there are several in there that can win besides that one.

Late runners are always noticed by the public, and this one will probably be attracting attention.

[Some_One]

For the Oceanside R8

Continuing my little actual/expected test I've been doing over on the selection form, here are the best L3 TF figures actual and expected I have

:1: 108 110
:2: 97 99
:3: 103 104
:4: 99 104
:5: 119 111
:6: 103 103
:7: 1 1 (No data on Euro)
:9: 104 106
:10: 110 115
:11: 110 113
:12: 102 98

To me the two ml favs are really strong and then the next two in line :1: :9: look like prime candidates to be over bet. :5: is tricky as his monster fig 3 back was in a spot he really outran expectations but is last is the inverse, tough to tell if he is value, if he's stay's double digit, I would think bettors are looking more at the last then the 3 back effort.

:10: :5: / :10: :5: :11: :4:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Really like this :9: Celtic Ray that you selected dilanesp in the 3rd.

Should get a good trip and the obvious class relief has to help. I'm not a huge fan of the whole MSW to MC drop, because everybody overplays it, but I think he is a good fit in here that could get the best early run like you stated. They gotta get him into the race earlier (obviously), and he can play at a price.

[NorCalGreg]

5th: :6: Miles Sister. Best bet on the card. I have been waiting to bet this horse ever since her debut. In a two year old 5 furlong maiden race, she broke well, and then started dropping back. Way back. She just looked like she couldn't keep up. And then, at the 1/4 pole, when she was so far back that she had no chance of winning, jockey Sal Gonzalez gave her a quarter mile workout down the Santa Anita stretch, and she FLEW like she had just robbed a bank, and somehow managed to get third. I can't remember the last time I saw anything like this. She's also related to a bunch of winners (her dam, Fair Bianca, has another one in the yearling sales next month and that might be a good gamble for anyone who wants to buy a horse).


I was looking over the Canterbury card and decided to see what the Del Mar crowd was up to. Your passion over MILES SISTER piked my interest. That was a HUGE run from the 1/4 pole in her 1st race, you weren't kidding. Her trainer is decent with 2yo, so what's not to like? I put a fiver on her, if she wins, I'll parlay that to the :7: in the 9th. Good luck all

[Lemon Drop Husker]

#4 Ink Well in the 3rd :ThmbUp:

[Tor Ekman]

The :10: in 4th is sort of interesting.
I'm with you, w/p on The Ferryman

[horses4courses]

#4 Ink Well in the 3rd

Very nice call :ThmbUp:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I'm with you, w/p on The Ferryman

Going with a really small :3::10: Exacta here. Not a big fan of the race.

[Tall One]

Gritty run by that :9: Always good seeing Stone Farm colors in the winners circle.. :ThmbUp:

[alf1380]

And....The Annual Del Mar Opening Day Blood Bath is well under way!!!

[dilanesp]

And....The Annual Del Mar Opening Day Blood Bath is well under way!!!

Yep.

[raybo]

Yeah, you either make a fortune or go bust. Although, I am a bit surprised that early horses aren't doing better on the dirt. The public is taking a severe drubbing, and me too! :lol: My 2nd and 3rd ranked horses are doing better than my top ranked horses.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

And....The Annual Del Mar Opening Day Blood Bath is well under way!!!

Hey, I got Gangnam home, so I'm fighting even right now. Or is that actually ahead? :D

Gonna take a big swing in the 10th.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

And....The Annual Del Mar Opening Day Blood Bath is well under way!!!


I have learned to tread lightly after many buckets of blood. tough lesson for me.

[Tor Ekman]

Late double races 9 & 10 - 2,7 with 10, 11, 12

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Hey, I got Gangnam home, so I'm fighting even right now. Or is that actually ahead? :D

Gonna take a big swing in the 10th.

Took the :9: in R9. :ThmbUp:

[dilanesp]

Yeah, you either make a fortune or go bust. Although, I am a bit surprised that early horses aren't doing better on the dirt. The public is taking a severe drubbing, and me too! :lol: My 2nd and 3rd ranked horses are doing better than my top ranked horses.

this is going to sound like redboarding (but i lost a ton today :) ), but i was a bit skeptical of the "same dirt as SA" thing. Del Mar's dirt tracks were always quirky and biased in all sorts of ways. They used to blame the tides. But it totally doesn't surprise me that the track turned out different.

[alf1380]

Hey, I got Gangnam home, so I'm fighting even right now. Or is that actually ahead? :D

Gonna take a big swing in the 10th.

It's ahead if you put a P4 ticket together..because this day has returned to some normalcy.

I have taken such an unholy beating today that I need the :2: to come in here to recover for the day and give me enough profit for a decent sandwich. (Thanks for puking yourself Forest Blue and ruining this ticket)

My original ticket had the :2::4::6::12: to finish this p4. When you bleed from every pore you gotta get economical.

Settled on my top 2 in the :2: and :12: due to monetary concerns. So of course.....the :4: by 15 lengths.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Took the :9: in R9. :ThmbUp:

On the :10: like a hound dog with the :3::6::7::9: in the 10th.

[alf1380]

ok..checked the payouts...no hope for a profit or coming close to even today. Oh well.

I swear, I'm sitting out opening day Del Mar next year. This annual disaster has become tradition for me.

[raybo]

Gotta get the 1 in the 10th to save the day, and that one would make me very happy!!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Gotta get the 1 in the 10th to save the day, and that one would make me very happy!!

BANG!

Very nice work Raybo! :cool::ThmbUp:

[alf1380]

Gotta get the 1 in the 10th to save the day, and that one would make me very happy!!

GET IT! Nicely done.

Uh...give me a loan? LOL

[raybo]

Gotta get the 1 in the 10th to save the day, and that one would make me very happy!!

I'll take it! That was the one I needed!!

[raybo]

Thanks guys! I was thinking "no way" after the other 4 losers.

[raybo]

Trifecta, cold! Hope someone bet it - LOL!

[NorCalGreg]

Good call, Raybo. Always sweet to hit that last one

[raybo]

Good call, Raybo. Always sweet to hit that last one

Thanks, at those odds any race on the card will do! :lol: Just had to wait a while in this one.

[alf1380]

Jeez. Check out this guy from the Selections forum:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1850532&postcount=1

This dude went nuts today.