Del Mar surface switch

[grandstander21]

Hello to all the fans that follow the sport. As tomorrow is the start of the famous Del Mar summer meet, I want to remind you guys that Del Mar has switched back to their original dirt surface (http://articles.latimes.com/2014/feb/19/sports/la-sp-del-mar-dirt-track-20140220). That's right, for the first time since 2006 the track will have a fresh new dirt track. This raises a lot of hopes, but I wanna know what you guys think. Are you excited that Del Mar has changed back to dirt? Let me know.

[Augenj]

I think you can lean on your Santa Anita algorithms for Del Mar. Same jockey and trainer colony and same "El Segundo sand". Not sure about the turf although both are usually hard and firm.

[Stillriledup]

The pools will go up, all the bettors they lost due to plastic might return.

[dilanesp]

Hello to all the fans that follow the sport. As tomorrow is the start of the famous Del Mar summer meet, I want to remind you guys that Del Mar has switched back to their original dirt surface (http://articles.latimes.com/2014/feb/19/sports/la-sp-del-mar-dirt-track-20140220). That's right, for the first time since 2006 the track will have a fresh new dirt track. This raises a lot of hopes, but I wanna know what you guys think. Are you excited that Del Mar has changed back to dirt? Let me know.

Hopefully it is a new dirt surface and not the old one. The old one was equicide.

[Some_One]

The pools will go up, all the bettors they lost due to plastic might return.

Really?

How did Keeneland do over it's last two meets since switching to dirt?

[SandyW]

Really?

How did Keeneland do over it's last two meets since switching to dirt?

Comparing Keeneland to Del Mar is like comparing the top of the mountain to the bottom of the mountain.

[Stillriledup]

Really?

How did Keeneland do over it's last two meets since switching to dirt?

What does that have to do with Del Mar?

[Some_One]

What does that have to do with Del Mar?

Because the claim of the whiners on here about polytrack is that they and their fellow handicappers would never play polytrack and would return in droves once they return to dirt. Well in the two meets since Keeneland switched to dirt, their handle has tanked, not been flat or slightly down, but outright tanked. If there are so many handicappers that were waiting for dirt to return, where were they over the last year? So the assumption now that Del Mar handle will spike because of dirt is absurd.

[Robes]

Because the claim of the whiners on here about polytrack is that they and their fellow handicappers would never play polytrack and would return in droves once they return to dirt. Well in the two meets since Keeneland switched to dirt, their handle has tanked, not been flat or slightly down, but outright tanked. If there are so many handicappers that were waiting for dirt to return, where were they over the last year? So the assumption now that Del Mar handle will spike because of dirt is absurd.


The D.Mar poly was nothing more than playing the lottery hence the most p6 carryovers in the history of the p6,now it will take skill and a little luck instead of all luck to win. i haven't bet D. Mar in years but now i will.;)

[NorCalGreg]

Because the claim of the whiners on here about polytrack is that they and their fellow handicappers would never play polytrack and would return in droves once they return to dirt. Well in the two meets since Keeneland switched to dirt, their handle has tanked, not been flat or slightly down, but outright tanked. If there are so many handicappers that were waiting for dirt to return, where were they over the last year? So the assumption now that Del Mar handle will spike because of dirt is absurd.

I'm with you on that, brother. Two thing us bettors like to do....BET, and BITCH. We'll find something else to complain about at Del Mar.

[ronsmac]

Because the claim of the whiners on here about polytrack is that they and their fellow handicappers would never play polytrack and would return in droves once they return to dirt. Well in the two meets since Keeneland switched to dirt, their handle has tanked, not been flat or slightly down, but outright tanked. If there are so many handicappers that were waiting for dirt to return, where were they over the last year? So the assumption now that Del Mar handle will spike because of dirt is absurd.Keenelands field sizes have absolutely crashed with the switch to dirt.

[Some_One]

The D.Mar poly was nothing more than playing the lottery hence the most p6 carryovers in the history of the p6,now it will take skill and a little luck instead of all luck to win. i haven't bet D. Mar in years but now i will.;)

No what happened was people bet the poly like dirt? Do you play turf races like dirt? do you play 2yr sprints like their older alw routes? It was people finding excuses for their poor results.

[affirmedny]

Keenelands field sizes have absolutely crashed with the switch to dirt.


It's more due to Gulfstream staying open than switching to dirt IMO.

[Track Phantom]

Love Del Mar but hated the synthetic. It produced un-handicapable results, in many cases. At least that is how I felt.

You'd look at a field of 10, identify 4 main players, 4 possibles and 1 outsider that had a slight chance. The 1 that made little sense would win. That happened all too often.

I'm all for prices but there has to be some underlying data to help you find it. Random is like playing bingo.

I think the switch back to dirt will make the results a bit more logical. The big fields will help keep the prices enticing.

I guess we'll see...

[raybo]

The big draw for me regarding Del Mar was that the average win price there was about the best in the land. Higher average prices means more room to maneuver in the profitable realm. Higher average prices usually means that the races are harder to handicap, which gives the astute 'capper an edge over the general public.

I prefer, to the point of requiring, that any track I play has an average win payout above average for the US. Thus, Del Mar has been one of my playable tracks. Now that they have switched back to dirt, and El Segundo at that (the same surface material that is at Santa Anita, meaning probably fast and early speed favoring), this track may become one of my unplayable tracks. The reason? Dirt tracks are more predictable by the public than synthetic tracks. So, what's the big deal? Higher predictability for the average Joe means lower prices on the tote.

So, what you end up with is a track that requires either 1) you wait and wait for good opportunities where the public actually made a big mistake, or 2) your hit rate is extremely good, much better than the public as a whole. The 25% to 30% hit rate you had last year and the year before, etc., now needs to be 33% or higher in order to bet a good number of races and also make a positive ROI.

Don't get me wrong, I love dirt tracks, but they gotta pay or they're not worth the effort.

[Dark Horse]

With the new surface I'll sit out day 1, but the replays so far for the one turn dirt races show a cavalry charge for the early lead, and the horses upfront holding on. Stalkers that look to make a strong move in the turn are not getting it done. Ugh.

[raybo]

With the new surface I'll sit out day 1, but the replays so far for the one turn dirt races show a cavalry charge for the early lead, and the horses upfront holding on. Stalkers that look to make a strong move in the turn are not getting it done. Ugh.

Through 7 races, only one race was won by an upfront horse (leading or very close to the lead), and that one was 2nd early and it was a 5f race. Only one favorite winner through those races.

[Dark Horse]

Through 7 races, only one race was won by an upfront horse (leading or very close to the lead), and that one was 2nd early and it was a 5f race.

I only watched the one turn dirt races. My point is that about half the field was charging for early positioning. As Trevor would have it:"they're all lining up for the lead." To point out the obvious, when you have five horses speeding for the early lead there's only room for two in the first two spots. The question is if the early charge paid off (especially when longshots are involved in that charge, and extended to exotic tickets). Did you see a winner in those races from any position other than those who grabbed the first three or four spots early? (in relatively large fields; so different from the first three or four spots in a 7 horse field).

[raybo]

I only watched the one turn dirt races. My point is that about half the field was charging for early positioning. Did you see a winner in those races from any position other than those who grabbed the first three or four spots early? (in relatively large fields; so different from the first three or four spots in a 7 horse field)

1st call positions of winners: 5, 9, 3, 6, 2, 5, 5

[Tom]

Are they sure they got all the poly out of the track?
First dirt race won by a turf horse.

Now that's the Del Mar I remember..... :eek:

[raybo]

Are they sure they got all the poly out of the track?
First dirt race won by a turf horse.

Now that's the Del Mar I remember..... :eek:

That crossed my mind too. I really expected the "dirt" to be more like the new Santa Anita surface, since it's supposedly the same material, and supposedly the 2 superintendents were working together on those 2 surface changes. Of course, the jockeys/trainers may have been thinking the same way and decided to get up front early. Bad move!!

[letswastemoney]

I picked the 2 year old maiden Plane Lucky in Race 5, who was 9/1 and starting for the first time.

She broke like a rocket setting the pace. Considering her trainer is Peter Miller and the pedigree is filled with stakes winners, and this was dirt, I thought she was a lock to win by the far turn.

Plane Lucky faded to 3rd. It didn't seem the same as Santa Anita.

[raybo]

I picked the 2 year old maiden Plane Lucky in Race 5, who was 9/1 and starting for the first time.

She broke like a rocket setting the pace. Considering her trainer is Peter Miller and the pedigree is filled with stakes winners, and this was dirt, I thought she was a lock to win by the far turn.

Plane Lucky faded to 3rd. It didn't seem the same as Santa Anita.

No, it didn't, but it's a bit hard to project what any 1st time starter is going to do in a real race. That's why I don't play them. Sure, you can get some very good payouts, but your hit rate is going to be very low if you're betting blood lines that aren't obvious choices for the type of race you're playing.

[letswastemoney]

No, it didn't, but it's a bit hard to project what any 1st time starter is going to do in a real race. That's why I don't play them. Sure, you can get some very good payouts, but your hit rate is going to be very low if you're betting blood lines that aren't obvious choices for the type of race you're playing.I feel comfortable enough with them.

Plane Lucky had the family and Peter Miller hit at 19% with first timers, which is high, and she was 9/1. The dam and siblings need to show a preference for winning early, but if the trainer isn't right then maybe it's going to offset the family. It's never one factor.

The 2 year old races at Saratoga will be a bit easier (although racing is hard in general).

[Augenj]

I picked the 2 year old maiden Plane Lucky in Race 5, who was 9/1 and starting for the first time.

She broke like a rocket setting the pace. Considering her trainer is Peter Miller and the pedigree is filled with stakes winners, and this was dirt, I thought she was a lock to win by the far turn.

Plane Lucky faded to 3rd. It didn't seem the same as Santa Anita.
Probably not like SA since there can be other factors in play like cushion depth, moisture content, etc. The SA Breeders Cup Friday went from only front runners to Saturday's more honest surface after the bettors gave the track superintendent a lot of flak. He watered the bleep out of it overnight Friday.

[Dark Horse]

1st call positions of winners: 5, 9, 3, 6, 2, 5, 5

Not enough detail. For my 'exotic' taste. I hardly ever bet to win, so I don't look at the race through those eyes.

I didn't play opening day, because I wanted to see how the new surface played. I came away with initial impressions, but will test them again tomorrow.

I hope you made money.

[theiman]

I feel comfortable enough with them.

Plane Lucky had the family and Peter Miller hit at 19% with first timers, which is high, and she was 9/1. The dam and siblings need to show a preference for winning early, but if the trainer isn't right then maybe it's going to offset the family. It's never one factor.

The 2 year old races at Saratoga will be a bit easier (although racing is hard in general).


A poster from a Facebook horse group I am in posted these stats on Peter Miller. Note they are only for DM and only regarding 2 year old firster's.

Peter Miller with 2yo FTS at DMR:
MDC: 11-26 win (42%) 15-26 ITM (58%) ITM
MSW: 0-21 win and 4-21 ITM (19%)

They are supposedly from DRF Formulator and over a 5 year period.
I dont use formulator and cant confirm their accuracy. Poster is a regular poster.

[theiman]

Are they sure they got all the poly out of the track?
First dirt race won by a turf horse.

Now that's the Del Mar I remember..... :eek:

3 of the first 4 races won today at DM were by horses whose last race was at GGF. Perhaps some Tapeta got mixed in with the dirt. :confused:

[theiman]

For those handicapping Saturday and Sundays DM card you might want to take this into account.

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USCA0288:1:US

[dilanesp]

For those handicapping Saturday and Sundays DM card you might want to take this into account.

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USCA0288:1:US

That's funny. it never rains during the DMR summer meet. They get rid of their all weather track and it does.

[Redboard]

I thought they were having a drought out there?

[raybo]

After reading today about what several jocks/trainers/and the super out there thought of the track prior to opening day, it appears to have run like they expected it to, slowish and tiring, not favoring early horses.

Would have been nice to have read that stuff before the races yesterday! :bang:

[dilanesp]

I thought they were having a drought out there?

California droughts are complicated. It can still rain during the late spring or summer during a drought year (although almost never in late July). It just doesn't rain much during the winter.

At any rate, we are supposed to have an el nino this year, which will mean a reprieve from the drought (and a bunch of floods and landslides).

[Tom]

After reading today about what several jocks/trainers/and the super out there thought of the track prior to opening day, it appears to have run like they expected it to, slowish and tiring, not favoring early horses.

Would have been nice to have read that stuff before the races yesterday! :bang:

Yeah, why would anyone expect a racing writer to actually cover racing stuff? :rolleyes:

I won't play the dirt track for at least two years, if then.
California has a history of having no clue how to put in a new surface the first, second, or third time. :D Not at all impressed by their track supers out there.....maybe it's the health food.

[elhelmete]

Something cool...with the return to dirt, DRF charts show the track records from back in the dirt era, not the AWS. Some ooolllldddd names in there!

[raybo]

It ran "ok" today, not too slow not too fast. But, it does appear to be overly tiring, don't know if it's just the horses are not in top form, or if they're starting their runs a little early, I know a couple did and it cost them. I didn't get bailed out today like yesterday, went 0 for 3, with 2 shows.

[ultracapper]

In deep stretch, when 2 horses are dueling, if there is separation, it's been due to one tiring, not the winner accelerating away, that's for sure. It's truly a "battle to the fittest" situation right now.

[Tom]

First time in 24 years the track has not been labeled fast.
Bad juju!

[dilanesp]

First time in 24 years the track has not been labeled fast.
Bad juju!

I had not remembered it happening 24 years ago, to be honest.

[Dark Horse]

Straight from the trainer's mouth:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/videos/13793/del-mar-2015-doug-oneill-on-track-surfaces

I've been staying away from the new dirt, and will reevaluate after the first two weeks. In the above video O'Neill masters the art of veiling complaints in compliments: deep, still settling, little time to prepare after the Del Mar fair, rain a God-send to help it settle, etc.

Turf is fine this meet. I bet just one race the first four days. Nice exacta, but I know it would have paid better at Belmont. Not a big Del Mar fan. Last year the turf started out disastrous, because it needed more time, this year they give themselves a few days after the fair to prepare the new dirt. Just trying to squeeze in too much, imo.