Some_One
07-15-2015, 05:25 AM
So over the last couple of days I've been thinking about speed figures and thought to myself about a saying I've repeated on here about how the result of a bet does not matter, it is the process and ensuring that the best logic is +EV. Then I thought what would happened if I applied this logic to speed figures and assign figure to the horse based on the expected result given the field and odds. So lets use tomorrow/tonight's 4th at Woodbine as an example as it is one of the TF races of the day (so hopefully CJ won't sue me for showing the figures in this post)
The actual TF figs for the last 3 are as follows:
:1: 83 81 85
:2: 79 84 88
:3: 82 100 95
:4: 90 90 79
:5: 73 97 85
:6: 80 86 84
:7: 86 77 85
:8: 81 90 73
:9: 86 98 86
:10: 79 92 65
So after some research, I came up with a formula for each race in this sample, as below
:1: 89 90 95
:2: 89 89 89
:3: 96 95 93
:4: 90 84 89
:5: 87 93 86
:6: 88 92 88
:7: 87 88 84
:8: 89 81 86
:9: 95 87 84
:10: 86 79 75
Now this race is stranger then some of the others I've looked at with this as the ML fav ( :1: ) has done much worse then expectation, whereas I'm doing this to find low priced horses who have outperformed their expectation (where I would say this is due to variance and would be overbet). I expect the :9: to be post time fav based on 2nd best L3 rating and top connections.
The :3: definitely has to be highly rated IMO, good figs both in actual and expectation, the layoff is the question and my other top choice probably will be whomever goes off the highest between the :1: and :9: . And if :5: goes off at near 20-1 and this race stays on turf, seems like a must use in exotics
This is all an experiment, who knows if it will produce anything of substance, use at your own risk.
The actual TF figs for the last 3 are as follows:
:1: 83 81 85
:2: 79 84 88
:3: 82 100 95
:4: 90 90 79
:5: 73 97 85
:6: 80 86 84
:7: 86 77 85
:8: 81 90 73
:9: 86 98 86
:10: 79 92 65
So after some research, I came up with a formula for each race in this sample, as below
:1: 89 90 95
:2: 89 89 89
:3: 96 95 93
:4: 90 84 89
:5: 87 93 86
:6: 88 92 88
:7: 87 88 84
:8: 89 81 86
:9: 95 87 84
:10: 86 79 75
Now this race is stranger then some of the others I've looked at with this as the ML fav ( :1: ) has done much worse then expectation, whereas I'm doing this to find low priced horses who have outperformed their expectation (where I would say this is due to variance and would be overbet). I expect the :9: to be post time fav based on 2nd best L3 rating and top connections.
The :3: definitely has to be highly rated IMO, good figs both in actual and expectation, the layoff is the question and my other top choice probably will be whomever goes off the highest between the :1: and :9: . And if :5: goes off at near 20-1 and this race stays on turf, seems like a must use in exotics
This is all an experiment, who knows if it will produce anything of substance, use at your own risk.