Saratoga Preparation

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

With the opening of Saratoga in the near future I have some questions about this premier boutique race meeting.

Some handicappers take a very patient approach in the first few days (week) of the meeting patiently waiting for the best spots. Others jump right in from day one attempting to take advantage of researched trends before the crowd jumps on the opportunities.

I have listened to some successful bettors who are wary of being in a financial hole the first two weeks of the meeting and generally scale down their wagering because of the many variables that effect there specialty bets.

Myself, I have always measured my beginning of the meeting to insist on more than a few no wager days because "my gut" tells me I don't have the right advantage. As you can see my confidence levels are not where I want it to be.

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated

[Stillriledup]

Handicap how the horse was managed. Good horses and horses sitting on big efforts are 'pointed' for the meet. If a horse has raced 3 times in the last 3 weeks, that horse is not being pointed for anything specific, just whatever comes up next.

My best picks eminate from sharp performances and then a nice 2 or 3 month layoff gearing up for the spa. Connections who sit on sharp horses and don't race them hard at Belmont are my favorite plays. This type of bet you're not going to lose because the horse was tired or over the top, you get a horse ready to fire a good shot.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Handicap how the horse was managed. Good horses and horses sitting on big efforts are 'pointed' for the meet. If a horse has raced 3 times in the last 3 weeks, that horse is not being pointed for anything specific, just whatever comes up next.

My best picks eminate from sharp performances and then a nice 2 or 3 month layoff gearing up for the spa. Connections who sit on sharp horses and don't race them hard at Belmont are my favorite plays. This type of bet you're not going to lose because the horse was tired or over the top, you get a horse ready to fire a good shot.

Excellent post. reading between the lines can show trainer/owner intent.

[Valuist]

It can't get here fast enough. Since Belmont day, I've spent one day betting horses, and that was because I was at a track I had never visited before. I completely quit Arlington a few years ago, quit Churchill a couple years ago, and I find myself not even caring about Belmont anymore.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

It can't get here fast enough. Since Belmont day, I've spent one day betting horses, and that was because I was at a track I had never visited before. I completely quit Arlington a few years ago, quit Churchill a couple years ago, and I find myself not even caring about Belmont anymore.

Hopefully Saratoga will put you 'back in the game' it has it's share of big rewards pari mutually speaking.

[OTM Al]

I love being in Saratoga, but my serious wagering there is over. Too many years it has taken me from positive return for the year to negative. Wish Colonial hadn't shut as I won't be playing much for the next two months.

[Tor Ekman]

Last few years, at least during my visits, it's been a big chalk fest.

[lamboguy]

basically all of horse racing has become a diluted product except for Saratoga.
the lowest tag they write is $20,000. its still a place that you can bet on good horses with good prices. it takes an adjustment to switch gears though.

when i played the place, if things clicked the right way for me i took down some scores with pretty much straight handicapping. today i only play a few races there for the whole meet, only because its very tough to keep up with all the tracks i bet and do a good job along with the takeout for me being higher than anywhere else makes it not worth guessing to much over there.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Seems to be a few responses that indicate the philosophy of 'playing the cards' close to the vest with the Saratoga meeting. Which I think is prudent considering all of the variables present.

Yet I still know some players that play Saratoga with a full frontal attack like there are no other tracks available during this meet. I guess the success varies among the different styles of play and the bottom line is profit.

[burnsy]

I take it easy the first two weeks. I never bet every race anyway but there is usually a parade of "bad favorites" even though chalk does well here. You gotta pick your spots and stick to your strengths. For me, that's the grass and horses with experience. Some swear by the maiden races but I avoid them. I sort of agree with SRU but anything that's sharp from Belmont is worth a look, even horses hitting the board or showing potential. These horses are only moving a hundred and thirty miles and some of the others have been here since spring training on the track or the deeper track across the street (Oklahoma training track). Home field advantage. Look at ones that had success here before! Be wary of shippers at low odds, Churchill horses and mid Atlantic horses come in but they struggle too at times. An over bet one is usually a bad bet. But I would never talk anyone out of a price because that's when those seem to hit and make the numbers huge(Finger Lakes horses too). If there is an extended period of dry, hot weather look for speedy types. Speed is always a good commodity here but during summer weather like that its even better. If the jockeys play "merry go round pace" on the grass the positions hardly change even if the horse on the lead is a bomb. It does become chalky from time to time but there is almost always two to three good shots every day....scope the card, play your strong races as a handicapper and seek out the bad "tourist" chalk......its there. That's when you make your move.........my secondary favorite bet is when I like the favorite, bet a favorite with a nice price, not many exactas are chalk/second choice even when chalk is winning......mix the numbers up and attempt to "split" the crowd choices and go deep into the field because there are many races where a bomb will clunk up for second and make your day.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

One angle I think is worth noting when a top trainer ( Pletcher/Chad Brown etc) is over bet in relation to their strengths. I look intensely at the others in the race that are real good value and show a solid reason for a possible wager. It's instinctive, but you need to connect infrequently to be in the black.

[Rise Over Run]

basically all of horse racing has become a diluted product except for Saratoga.
the lowest tag they write is $20,000.

Well, not exactly... There's an open $16k NW2 claimer listed as Race 1, and a F&M $16k NW2 claimer listed as Substitute 3, both on opening day.

They have claiming races all the way down to the $12.5k level. Open claimers and restricted (NW2, NW3,)

https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=CBI-SAR-20150724-20150810D

[Lemon Drop Husker]

If all the smart money takes it easy the first couple of weeks, doesn't that mean that there is more dumb money in the early pools to be taken advantage of? :p

[burnsy]

One angle I think is worth noting when a top trainer ( Pletcher/Chad Brown etc) is over bet in relation to their strengths. I look intensely at the others in the race that are real good value and show a solid reason for a possible wager. It's instinctive, but you need to connect infrequently to be in the black.

That's a great angle and it works for weeding out bad low price horses. People that bet (like us) have an advantage because much of the public is "on vacation". I've been going for 37 years and hear it every year. They will bet a name like a trainer or jockey no matter what. Even if the people are winning at a 30% clip they are still losing 70% of the time.....bet the horse, don't just bet the names associated with that horse...its a sucker move if one is looking for value.....its the anti value move.......Most of us horse players know who these people are and they win a lot but they still don't win them all.........or even close to it. I laugh when here people say Pletcher or Brown or this jockey wins them all....no they don't.

I don't know Lemon Drop. The first two weeks usually are weaker cards anyway and I don't want to be down hard with 4 weeks to go.....its now a long 6 weeks....a marathon not a sprint.....that's why I take it easy....I gotta stay upbeat mentally so I don't have an extended losing streak. That's just me.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

That's a great angle and it works for weeding out bad low price horses. People that bet (like us) have an advantage because much of the public is "on vacation". I've been going for 37 years and hear it every year. They will bet a name like a trainer or jockey no matter what. Even if the people are winning at a 30% clip they are still losing 70% of the time.....bet the horse, don't just bet the names associated with that horse...its a sucker move if one is looking for value.....its the anti value move.......Most of us horse players know who these people are and they win a lot but they still don't win them all.........or even close to it. I laugh when here people say Pletcher or Brown or this jockey wins them all....no they don't.

I don't know Lemon Drop. The first two weeks usually are weaker cards anyway and I don't want to be down hard with 4 weeks to go.....its now a long 6 weeks....a marathon not a sprint.....that's why I take it easy....

Good points. Sitting back playing the waiting game offers value opportunities that the public will never wager on. I like to double my win bet when my selection is overlooked on the board while the public hammers Chad Brown to 4/5 because, well it's Chad Brown. I know he will beat me at times with his high win percentages, BUT I will be rewarded handsomely when he doesn't. simple stuff really.

[burnsy]

I stick to all the simple stuff....Harvey Pack school of racing. Its old school but it still works well. Some of my friends laugh at me.....but I cash and usually hold my own. Some years I do really well, some not so much. They laugh, but they also call me the "Professor" at the same time....because when I hit its rarely a chalk deal.......

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Burnsy,

Have you seen buddies blow out the first couple of weeks of the meeting and find themselves in a desperate situation for the remainder of the meeting? I have seem this a number of times including myself many years ago. I learned a valuable lesson "Wait and Win". Though I am a spot player rarely wagering on more then a couple of wagers on any given day there seems to be a LURE playing more races because it's Saratoga. At least for me.

[EMD4ME]

If all the smart money takes it easy the first couple of weeks, doesn't that mean that there is more dumb money in the early pools to be taken advantage of? :p


The more I read your right ! Lots of people saying they will stay out or reduce betting early!

I guess if I doube fist early, we'll only increase the amount of dumb money in there !!! :lol:

[therussmeister]

So*,I never take it slow at the start of any meet. Oft times the best opportunities are during the first two weeks. If I lose money that's why I bet 2 1/2 other tracks every day.


*I'm currently watching Janet Yellen and am influenced by her to start all my replies with 'so'. ;)

[Stillriledup]

Be careful backing large margin winners (with the large margin win the main basis for your reasoning) from Delaware and Gulfstream. The form doesnt always transfer.

[Ocala Mike]

Look for trainer Jack Fisher to strike with a longie or two early in the meet. I caught him in 2013 and 2014 in late July as I recall.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Look for trainer Jack Fisher to strike with a longie or two early in the meet. I caught him in 2013 and 2014 in late July as I recall.

Have to admit that I am amazed how certain trainers pull off regular high priced winners at Saratoga year after year. Bill Mott seems to always win a race on his birthday up in Saratoga. Yes, I know these trainers point for this meeting with said horses, BUT, as we horseplayers know there are a lot of factors we can't control when the gates open and the race begins. Hat's off to these conditioners and their skills.