sanctifica, how was she 4-5?

[Stillriledup]

Did someone make a large wager on the wrong horse?

[spicytomato]

I watched it

good race, thought it would win

numbers

1 19 10,538 3,637 2,097 16,272
2 6 27,746 7,870 4,902 40,518
3 4/5 106,990 24,851 9,611 141,452
4 7/2 45,125 16,481 8,437 70,043
5 5 30,357 9,908 3,926 44,191
6 50 3,621 1,778 1,551 6,950
7 8 21,531 6,046 3,527 31,104
8 35 5,635 2,046 1,477 9,158
251,547 72,621 35,532 359,700

:eek:

[letswastemoney]

He was the best horse going into the race for me, although I'm disappointed the public saw it.

[Stillriledup]

He was the best horse going into the race for me, although I'm disappointed the public saw it.

The best at what, stopping on a dime in her only start at 40-1 w a pedestrian Beyer while others had beyers much higher? i could see her as an angle play, but 4-5?

[letswastemoney]

The best at what, stopping on a dime in her only start at 40-1 w a pedestrian Beyer while others had beyers much higher? i could see her as an angle play, but 4-5?
The horses she outdueled finished way back, like 9th and 10th or something.

She managed to keep fighting for 4th, and considering where the other pace horses finished, 4th was pretty good.

It's just how I look at races. She was very impressive in her debut.

[Robert Fischer]

Her debut was a huge effort in terms of performance and she has a good trainer. Her debut performance laid over the field and she was 'supposed to' annihilate this field.

Unfortunately for me, everyone else could see that as well, and the betting action for this race turned into such that the public bet the obvious horse, and then bet her again. There was sort of a 'default' feel, where in the lack of an established contender, the horse with the best form was bet as a default as if she were an established favorite. It was a 'bull' market for sure. When Belmont, or any track begins to bet default horses, you have to stay out, unless you are playing for luck and want to take stabs at several contenders.

So, I passed the race, and then saw what everyone else did. In spite of her big debut, he did not move forward. She ran another decent performance, but it was far from the refined version of her debut that many expected (and impulsively overbet).

[EMD4ME]

I loved her today as well SRU.

She ran a rocket pace against a C Brown and T Pletcher tandem that was super live. She won the pace battle and fought on.

Of course, her beyer was compromised. Beyers are only based on your final time. After running rocket ship fractions, she of course had her final time compromised.

[Stillriledup]

People got cute, the paper said 56 Beyer, the winner had a 74 and was FTL for a HOF trainer. They made it harder than it needed to be.

[no breathalyzer]

People got cute, the paper said 56 Beyer, the winner had a 74 and was FTL for a HOF trainer. They made it harder than it needed to be.

You left out the best part.. 1ST TIME LASIX :ThmbUp:

[letswastemoney]

Oxbow was pace compromised in the 2013 Kentucky Derby and then ran very well in the Preakness and Belmont.

This was the same idea, just with a different level of horses.

[SuperPickle]

Honesty the horse probably wins without Cancel. The horse looked like lone speed on paper. He broken on top and Cancel pulled out the anchor. A journeyman probably gets him home.

I see him winning his next start with a new jockey at 4-5.

Far from the worst 4-5 shot today.

[magwell]

She was tipped every where as the best bet on the day, and ran good but 4/5 was way out of line, the race fell apart and Mott with 1st time lasix picked up the pieces........

[Robert Fischer]

She was tipped every where as the best bet on the day, and ran good but 4/5 was way out of line, the race fell apart and Mott with 1st time lasix picked up the pieces........

Yup. I would happily lose that bet at 2-1 or 5-2, rather than have to pass the race around 4/5 or whatever she went off at.

The betting market at Belmont has been lively. Even when there is not a legitimate low-odds favorite, if there happens to be a horse that stands out above the others, that horse will be bet with both hands by the public.
There's always a part of the estimation of a horse's chances that includes 'uncertainty'. Uncertainty can be made up of whatever factors lead to it (inexperience, field size, chance of a bad trip etc.. happening, chance of this or that).
Right now the Belmont public is having none of that. We are betting without the uncertainty factoring at all.
We'd call it a "bull market" in investment terms.

I wish I can say that I've been spreading those races and making a small fortune in the process, but I am just getting back into the game now. I can see the market, but I am still not at the point with my handicapping and 'book' on the entries.

An aggressive market is a good thing. It means people aren't completely broke, and that they are excited.