Smarty and Belmont Exotics

[ponyplayer]

What are the thoughts on the exotics in the Belmont. With Smarty's short odds, what would be a reasonable wager to maximize return? Straight Tri's, Tri Boxes, Supers (if offered), spread in Pic3's/Pic4's??? :confused:

[ceejay]

Tri's will be huge if SJ finishes OTM. I give that maybe a 10% chance.

I'm wondering if SJ will be over-played in the P4 pool.

[ponyplayer]

If that happens certainly sets up for a huge payoff........

[pmd62ndst]

Vegas have Smarty Jones props with how many lengths Smarty Jones will win by.

FYI, 31 lengths or greater is a 40-1 shot. Play?

PMD

[ponyplayer]

Aaah, bets for the true degenerate. ;)

[BigJake]

SJ went of at the Preak at 2-5 odds. How many people think his odds will be that good? I say 1-5 is the best you'll see on straight win wagers on SJ. I told my little brother we may be able to bet every horse in the field except SJ and make money if he doesn't win.

[ponyplayer]

That is question with betting this race...If Smarty wins, how can you make some money with it, what would be the better combinations...If he loses, there will be some bucks, if he is off the board, there should be some major bucks if played right.:confused:

[rokitman]

The win pool win will have a several thousand nitwits buying Smarty tickets to sell on Ebay. Add several hundred thousand dollars in purely sentimental money on Smarty and here will be high value in the win pool. It is still horse racing, after all. If he breaks bad, like War Emblem did, who knows what'll happen after that. If the pace ends up a supercrawl, it's a 3/8ths mile sprint to the wire and that opens the door for an upset. If it's superfast, who knows if he can get that distance off a fast pace. I was planning on playing a pick 4 but the dumb money is all in the win pool.

[Valuist]

If you are going to play SJ on top in exactas you absolutely cannot use Rock Hard Ten, Purge or even Eddington in the second slot. The payoffs will be too low. I think you can use both of Zito's horses; he's never won a Belmont but he's been on the board numerous times. Maybe even Caiman. He'll be 75-1 or so and the connections are hopeful to try to hit the board. I think Rock Hard Ten and Purge will lay it all on the line to win, which would not be impossible. But if Smarty breaks them, there's no telling how far back they can be at the finish.

[BigJake]

Sorry Guys, but I am from the big KY. I can tell you just about anything you want to know about KY tracks. I have no clue in NY. Belmont is Big Sandy, right? Is there any notable difference in the surface. Will Belmont be any different than any other track SJ has run. I really want to try and beat this horse, but he looks unstoppable right now. I keep hearing, no one has won the TC without winning on the Belmont dirt before "The Belmont". Is there any difference in this track?

[ponyplayer]

Looks like I'm leaning to try an beat Smarty, spreading the bet in exotics, but only lightly. I'll probably still be rooting for him to win, I'm a sentimental SOB; I think his win would be good for the game. :p

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by BigJake
I keep hearing, no one has won the TC without winning on the Belmont dirt before "The Belmont".

All of the Triple Crown winners had a previous race at Belmont Park. Not all of those races were wins. Belmont is an imposing track when compared to other tracks in North America. I bet the horses see it that way too, especially at 12 furlongs.

NDJ

[joeprunes]

OK heres the way I look at it..I was with SJ from day one when all the skeptics didnt like him. He had all the figures to win and he did twice.

BUT however they pushed him too much in the preakness when they really didnt have to.

Now I believe he`ll bounce down to a byers of around 110 from his 118. Now this may still make him win if the other horses cant get up to his level.

RHT has lower byers 100+ and is capable of a 110
Purge also has lower byers and capable of 110
MD and RA should be in the hunt maybe 3rd or 4th

However if SJ does better than 110 its all over and he`ll go on to be one of the greats..my opinion....jp

[joeprunes]

Originally posted by joeprunes
OK heres the way I look at it..I was with SJ from day one when all the skeptics didnt like him. He had all the figures to win and he did twice.

BUT however they pushed him too much in the preakness when they really didnt have to.

Now I believe he`ll bounce down to a byers of around 110 from his 118. Now this may still make him win if the other horses cant get up to his level.

RHT has lower byers 100+ and is capable of a 110
Purge also has lower byers and capable of 110
MD and RA should be in the hunt maybe 3rd or 4th

However if SJ does better than 110 its all over and he`ll go on to be one of the greats..my opinion....jp

Also who on this site had SJ 2 months ago and said he would win the derby??

[rokitman]

Birdstone is back at the scene of his best race and Zito seems to be the Grand Master at coming in second in the Belmont. Might have to bet a billion dollar Smarty-Birdstone exacta. With a million dollar Purge-Birdstone back-up, of course.

ZITO
1984 3rd
1990 2nd
1991 2nd
1992 7th
1994 2nd
1995 2nd
1996 4th
1997 11th
2001 2nd

[linrom1]

Alex/Jerry/Jorge

[ponyplayer]

O.K. here's what I'm looking at:

$1 Tri's

9/2-5-6/all $21

5-8/2-4-5-6-8/1-2-4-5-6-8-9 $42

Total Bet $63 and watch the fun........

Good Luck To All...:cool: