Winning Favorites by Day?

[traynor]

After getting trashed at MOH (by not betting chalk) I asked myself, "Hey. self, is there a pattern here?" I'm sure someone has thought of this before, studied it, and concluded it is totally random. However--it still seems to me (on occasion) that there are an unusual number of chalk winners some days, and an unusual number of healthy mutuels on another. Is there any pattern to the day of the week? Anyone study this?

10 favorites winning in 13 races? That is a bit much, even for Mohawk.

[lamboguy]

depending on how good your odds model, you can often find plenty of value in favorites. my most recent example would be this years Belmont Stakes. i had American Pharoah at 8 cents to the dollar. he went off at 75 cents to the dollar. to me that is big value, and more so in a race like that where the pool size is gigantic where a large bet early is not going to budge this board. i had another one Saturday in the 2nd race at Los Al thoroughbreds, i had the winner 10 cents on the dollar and he wound up paying $2.40. not quite as good, but still a good bet by my odds model.

what i generally do is bet anything that i have an odds model of ten cents to the dollar early and make the odds 1-9. usually the conditional wagers and pool analysis player kick in late and my odds go up late in the cycle. the worst that can happen is that the money against me never shows up and i am at a 4% disadvantage that my rebate will make up and i would be at fair odds. the other good thing is that most gate puncher's will not call short priced horses at the break, so they really don't effect my odds.