R9 Belmont Forbidden Apple Stakes

[Lemon Drop Husker]

This race has really come up huge bringing in a Grade 2 quality field of numerous Graded Stakes winners and Graded Stakes veterans. Winner of this one is going to earn it.

:1: Reload: He is simply running at the peak form of his career and has really found a home at 1 mile on the lawn. This will be the toughest field he has faced to date however. Major contender for win honors and will be either the favorite or 2nd choice in wagering. Tough to leave out of exotics considering his recent form.

:2: Choctaw Chuck: I'm sure the connections are a bit surprised as to how tough this field is that has shown up in here. After a couple of solid efforts in his last two races, I'm sure they wanted to take another swing at Belmont in a bigger purse field. Unfortunately, they find themselves up against it as they are severely outclassed in their move up the ladder while also stepping up to the longest race of his career. The strategy for this one is pretty simple. Try to get to the lead and hold on for dear life. Hard to see that happening, but he should at least add some pace into what looks like a relatively paceless looking field.

:3: Aztec Brave: The wildcard in this field for me as he has ran good enough races to be a factor in here. Probably tough to see him winning, but he can certainly spice up some exotics at a decent price. With 3 wins in his last 6 races, he is in top form, but is likely a notch below a number of peers in here. Could come up big on his optimal surface and distance if he can take to the Belmont turf.

:4: Vyjack: Did it really take 20 races to find out that Vyjack has been a turf horse all along?:eek: His first ever race on the turf in the G3 Poker was pretty impressive as he closed strongly into a pretty weak pace finishing a hard charging 2nd to fellow contender King Kreesa. If he takes a step forward off of that effort, it makes him a major contender in here. Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado have had strong Spring/Summer meets at Belmont and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see this guy in the winner's circle today. A likely sentimental favorite for this NYRA circuit veteran.

:5: Grand Arch: The class of the field in my opinion is a major G1 contender on this surface and distance when he is at his best. The real question is if we get his best today as he is obviously pointed towards bigger and better things down the line. Even if he doesn't bring a peak effort, his B game still makes him a huge threat in this one. At worst, he is likely to hit the board as he has done so 17 times in his 20 race career. Very appetizing at his ML of 3/1, and I think he'll end up being the post time favorite.

:6: Wicked Strong: You are either buying or selling this one as he makes his turf debut after his first 14 career races came on the dirt. This Graded Stakes winner and veteran has ran against some of the best of his generation, and been competitive. Since the Jim Dandy and Travers last year, things haven't quite fallen into place for him, thus one of the reasons we are likely seeing the switch in surface that we see today. In fairness, nobody was beating Honor Code in the Met Mile, and he looks to have come out of that race in good order. Will be interesting to see who gets the mount with the recent injury to Maragh. Rarely do you see a horse of this quality in a $150K stakes race with a ML of 5/1, but such is the case here. He'll either be a big part of this one, or flounder in the back of the pack. Tough call, but if I can really get 5/1 - 6/1 or better, he may be too hard to pass up.

:7: Howe Great: This horse has been aggressively placed in races throughout his career and today is no different. Even on his best day he just isn't good enough to beat all the contenders in here. I can only see bottom end of Trifectas or Supers even if he comes up big today.

:8: King Kreesa: Well, you aren't getting him at 17/1 like he was in his last out while being able to basically steal a win in the G3 Poker while nearly crawling to an easy and early lead. They can't possibly let him get away with that type of race again. Either way, he is in good form and a mile on turf is right in his wheelhouse as well as his affinity for the Belmont turf. Once again he'll be forwardly placed and jockey Jose Ortiz is having one of the best meets of his career. The biggest problem facing this one is the post position and his need to be on the pace. I'll be taking a stand against him not hitting the board.

WP: :6:
EX: :6:/:1::3::4::5:
EX: :4:/:1::3::5::6:

[Tor Ekman]

:1: :4: :6: trifecta box

[BlueChip@DRF]

:7:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:7:

You just had to pick the :7: didn't you? :D

He is bound to show up big in one of these races one of these days.

[BlueChip@DRF]

You just had to pick the :7: didn't you? :D

He is bound to show up big in one of these races one of these days.

Actually, I meant :8:. You can have :7: if you want. :bang:

[Ocala Mike]

Luv me some VYJACK :4: today - no excuses.

[Robert Fischer]

:1: Has a few things going for him - He's ultra classy, the Jock knows that he's ultra classy, and this field is relatively weak. He figures to run an efficient race and it should take a surprisingly big effort from someone to beat him. Not super talented, but he's push button here.

:4: is in top form, comes out of a strong last race, and has shown leading talent while running vs. the grain in a tough career. He actually may be the most talented horse in the race.


:6: is overrated in terms of raw talent, but this horse has legitimate class. He really needs a VERY aggressive ride, but I am not sure that his connections and jockey understand that. I would guess that he most likely runs with this group and then does too late of a move. It could simply be a weak enough race, where the :1: gets a patient ride, and the :6: lucks out and just gallops home with the :1:.

:5: is the type who looks better on form than in real life at this time. He's in decline in terms of how he is finishing his races. Needs a dream trip to win here.


So, I will be using 1,4 in multi-race wagers.

[Prytanis]

Luv me some VYJACK :4: today - no excuses.
Same here!!!!

[Tor Ekman]

Rosario riding Wicked Strong

Choctaw Chuck is scratched

[raybo]

:1: Power Form Velocities, Final Velocity, Distance
:4: Class, Combined Velocities
:8: Class/Distance, Total Velocity
:6: Class

[johnhannibalsmith]

I looked at this one about ten times since this thread was posted trying to piece together some guess at the way this race might run and I struggle to figure out what half of these horses and riders may do. Plenty have some legit route speed while a couple have solid sprint speed somewhere in their form. Looking at past layoff lines, I thought maybe Reload would just be too sharp to keep from challenging, but at the same time, that's the scenario that often leads to a seven furlong wrestling match that ends with a listless horse.

In the end I figured there was a decent chance that everyone that could make the lead... would try not to... except perhaps Aztec Brave.

This guy was claimed for 30k half a year ago and I'm under no illusions that he can match the class of most of the others, but I don't think he's way off the mark either. I have to believe that they will be aggressive and look to dictate and make the other "classier" runners back off, fearing their superhorse might duel into defeat with such a peon.

If that happens, I think it's plausible that he gets what for him, seems like an ideal scenario to top out while the others perhaps - particularly those dependent on half the field falling apart late - are compromised at least to minor degree.

It's the only way I can see a play since I just can't sketch out scenarios where others seem highly probable to get there at expected odds. Aztec here has to be around double-digits at post time - which at the low end is still probably not enough for fair value in my opinion - but I think there's a chance that my overall assessment of each horse's chances relative to their respective odds winds up pegging him as a small play anyway. Just can't say that about the others.

Fight Like A Brave!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

In the end I figured there was a decent chance that everyone that could make the lead... would try not to... except perhaps Aztec Brave.

Fight Like A Brave!

Unfortunately, the :3: has also scratched along with the :2:.

Really puts some punch back into the :8: King Kreesa as he gets a better post and not much other speed in here. I still don't see them letting him walk to the lead, but who goes with him now?

I'm really wondering if they send :6: Wicked Strong as opposed to sitting him on a stalking trip against classic late kicking turf horses like :1: Reload and :5: Grand Arch as well as :4: Vyjack who closed impressively last out. They have to feel they need to be in front of all of those prior to the stretch run...., right?

Should be an interesting tactical race with major strengths and weaknesses among all the contenders.

[NorCalGreg]

I meant to tell you, Husker, nice hit on that longshot other day @ Evangaline. on to today's business...cheap claimers are my thing, but on weekends after much hassle, I change my software settings and search the stakes races for a standout or two. Today only one: #8 KING KREESA. Good luck all

[raybo]

I looked at this one about ten times since this thread was posted trying to piece together some guess at the way this race might run and I struggle to figure out what half of these horses and riders may do. Plenty have some legit route speed while a couple have solid sprint speed somewhere in their form. Looking at past layoff lines, I thought maybe Reload would just be too sharp to keep from challenging, but at the same time, that's the scenario that often leads to a seven furlong wrestling match that ends with a listless horse.

In the end I figured there was a decent chance that everyone that could make the lead... would try not to... except perhaps Aztec Brave.

This guy was claimed for 30k half a year ago and I'm under no illusions that he can match the class of most of the others, but I don't think he's way off the mark either. I have to believe that they will be aggressive and look to dictate and make the other "classier" runners back off, fearing their superhorse might duel into defeat with such a peon.

If that happens, I think it's plausible that he gets what for him, seems like an ideal scenario to top out while the others perhaps - particularly those dependent on half the field falling apart late - are compromised at least to minor degree.

It's the only way I can see a play since I just can't sketch out scenarios where others seem highly probable to get there at expected odds. Aztec here has to be around double-digits at post time - which at the low end is still probably not enough for fair value in my opinion - but I think there's a chance that my overall assessment of each horse's chances relative to their respective odds winds up pegging him as a small play anyway. Just can't say that about the others.

Fight Like A Brave!

Good luck, hope you get that early scenario. But, with Vyjack and Wicked Strong in the race, I doubt Aztec Brave will dictate the lead. I have him 2nd in Power Form Velocity but he's up against it with the 1, 4, 8 and 6 in here.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Unfortunately, the :3: has also scratched along with the :2:.

...

Well I guess that lets me off the hook thankfully. :D

I think in that case I'd just have to hope that somehow Grand Arch gets overlooked a little in deference to those with some Belmont turf form. Seems like he runs about the same race regardless where he is, obviously loves the mile distance, obviously has the class, and seems to be able to sit just about anywhere and avoid being pace dependent in either direction.

[raybo]

Unfortunately, the :3: has also scratched along with the :2:.

Really puts some punch back into the :8: King Kreesa as he gets a better post and not much other speed in here. I still don't see them letting him walk to the lead, but who goes with him now?

I'm really wondering if they send :6: Wicked Strong as opposed to sitting him on a stalking trip against classic late kicking turf horses like :1: Reload and :5: Grand Arch as well as :4: Vyjack who closed impressively last out. They have to feel they need to be in front of all of those prior to the stretch run...., right?

Should be an interesting tactical race with major strengths and weaknesses among all the contenders.

8 certainly looks good here, and if they let him have the comfortable early lead they might never catch him before the wire. This race has changed from a probable pass to a complete no bet for me. There just won't be any value to be had with only 6 starters.

Interested to watch it though, will Wicked Strong go for it from the gate? Will Reload go for it from the gate? Could be a battle royale!! I'm not so sure this one will run like a turf race at all.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

8 certainly looks good here, and if they let him have the comfortable early lead they might never catch him before the wire. This race has changed from a probable pass to a complete no bet for me. There just won't be any value to be had with only 6 starters.

Interested to watch it though, will Wicked Strong go for it from the gate? Will Reload go for it from the gate? Could be a battle royale!! I'm not so sure this one will run like a turf race at all.

I'm right with you. I was looking for the :2: and :3: to add some serious wrenches in this race. Their scratches have changed the complete complexion of this race for me and it really looks like small value to be had. Hate to spread 5 deep on the bottom of a $32 trifecta.:ThmbDown:

Still a really interesting race with some solid story lines for some well liked horses. I may be down to the :5: in a big Exacta on top if I can get him at 3/1 or better, which doesn't look too good right now. Typically when it gets down to fields like this, class wins out and the :1: and :5: are the best in the field at this surface and distance with the most tactical speed of any in the field.

[buzzy]

16/1468/1468

[porkchop]

EX > 1 5 / 1 5 6 8

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Actually, I meant :8:. You can have :7: if you want. :bang:

Nice work BC! :ThmbUp:

They all let the :7: blow out quick fractions and they come home in a really fast time of 1:32 and change.

Pretty nice race by :6: Wicked Strong nonetheless with a poor break and nice rail trip. :4: Vyjack shows he is a real turf horse as well rounding out the trifecta.

Turns out to be a nice paying Exacta of nearly $80 and a trifecta of over $140.

Do they move forward with Wicked Strong on the turf? You can certainly make an excuse for him today with such a poor break.

[Robert Fischer]

Good ride by Jose Ortiz!

The pace developed quickly but he rated, and then his mount could kick home when the favorite came up.

[Secondbest]

I meant to tell you, Husker, nice hit on that longshot other day @ Evangaline. on to today's business...cheap claimers are my thing, but on weekends after much hassle, I change my software settings and search the stakes races for a standout or two. Today only one: #8 KING KREESA. Good luck all
Great call

[NorCalGreg]

8 certainly looks good here, and if they let him have the comfortable early lead they might never catch him before the wire. This race has changed from a probable pass to a complete no bet for me. There just won't be any value to be had with only 6 starters.

Nope no value at all....as I check my winnings on my King Kreesa win bet at TwinSpires

[NorCalGreg]

ty sir

[thespaah]

Nice work BC! :ThmbUp:

They all let the :7: blow out quick fractions and they come home in a really fast time of 1:32 and change.

Pretty nice race by :6: Wicked Strong nonetheless with a poor break and nice rail trip. :4: Vyjack shows he is a real turf horse as well rounding out the trifecta.

Turns out to be a nice paying Exacta of nearly $80 and a trifecta of over $140.

Do they move forward with Wicked Strong on the turf? You can certainly make an excuse for him today with such a poor break.
Coming in late to the thread here....
But here is my question...
I had no idea Wicked Strong and Vyjack were in this Listed Stake....
So naturally I wanted to see how Wicked Strong would do in what I assume was his turf bow....In the first part of the race, it appeared to me as though WS was struggling a bit. Like he just didn't like the surface.....However, over the last 3 1/16ths WS looked very good and finished gamely.
If he's in my barn, I'd move him forward on the turf.

[raybo]

Very entertaining race! Nice decision by Ortiz to let the 7 go in the 1st quarter after leading out of the gate. Very fast fractions after the 1st quarter with several good finishes, but nobody was going to catch King Kreesa, he ran an extremely good race with a perfect ride.

Wicked Strong and Vyjack both acquitted themselves well late (looked like Vyjack was keying on WS the whole way), but neither had the late kick that KK had. Vyjack did check slightly coming out of the turn behind KK and outside WS, his jock was about to go to the left handed whip but had to switch hands to straighten him out after being forced wider by WS, and by the time he finally went to the whip he nosed ahead of WS temporarily, but KK was already at full bore. Both WS and Vyjack had their troubles coming out of the turn and lost a little momentum as a result, it appeared.

Don't really know what to think about those two now. If I were their trainers, would I keep them on turf or go back to dirt, at a mile or 1 1/16m? Tough one, they both had a bit of trouble in this one, but don't know, without that trouble, if either could have beaten KK today. That would have been one hell of a finish by either of them, KK was moving!

Here are the fractions (if my math is correct):

23.42
22.37
23.08
23.47

average 23.085

Not too shabby!!