Belmont Park- Friday July 10, 2015

[MitchS]

Good evening!

A few things to report. I changed the AG- to AG-N for negative factors. I wrote a brief explanation of this new experimental number and updated the INFO.pdf at the website. It's a simple number, 2-100 = 2 negative factors on this horse with a point total of -100. Lower numbers are best. Most Horses will have positive and negative numbers and we need to take both of these under consideration. Will the positive outweigh the negative or vs Versa? I feel confident about this number even though it may need some tweaking after we see several races. Past results have proven this number to be successful. We shale see going forward.

I got an email about my personal selections. As we all know it's a very complex subject including value and you all know my value rants in the past! :D

Basically, the sheet shows 3 different things and I updated the INFO.pdf to explain this a little better. There are one contender list and 2 different numerical ratings. My personal contender list which is based off traditional handicapping and my performance/speed figs is highlighted in dark green. Anywhere from 1 to 4 horses or so. Then at the top of each race we show the top 2-speed fig horses as based off the traditional ratings and the top 2-AG fig horses which I estimate based off the ratings which is tricky sometimes.

Generally, either the top 2 of the speed figs and or the top 2 of the AG figs will win. Not always, but a good percentage of the time. Today's races we had one #1 rated speed fig winner, one #2 rated speed fig winner and one #2 rated AG winner which looked like a standout as the other AG horse was like 14/1. It's good when we can match these speed and AG horses up, but it doesn't happen that way all the time.

The new AG-N, should help to eliminate some of the losers and close this gap a bit. I'm selecting these AG horses based off AG-LT, AG-ST and the new AG-N for tomorrow's races and going forward.

Tomorrow's races that were chosen came out very interesting. We'll see how they run!

Mitch
www.spiritsfromheaven.com

[win1lose2]

Small world! I just read this from the same zipcode as you! Good luck!

[MitchS]

Hey, win1lose2. Hope you had a good day!


Well what a day,

I'm very happy the sheet rocked today with all of the positive numbers. It's clear that our traditional speed figs and the AG-LT are very solid. The new experimental fig I presented AG-N got slammed however which saddens me. I was a little aggressive with it and it's clear I'm a little off in that direction with this negative number :bang: . After a lot of research on this today and today's results, it's a little clearer to me as to what happened with that negative number. Quite simple, I was a little aggressive in analyzing these negative factors and not compensating more with the positives. Frankly I just don't have the best grasp on these negative influences as I do with the positive influences. I'll figure it out and that's why its experimental :D. There actually is 1 more positive factor I leave off the sheet that needs to be included which makes an impact! All of these winners had a bunch as in my research as well.

Its clear that the traditional speed figs and AG-LT are solid. That, the positive AG figs are real. Anybody that's been following along knows this. I'm not sure if the AG-ST is worth the effort as AG-LT includes some of these factors.

You'll have to excuse my old eyes too. I'm not perfect and do miss things. Like yesterday when we listed a horse as being off X number of days when It was the next program number that was off X number of days. And, today when I missed the green highlighting on a couple of top AG horses. I'm not perfect, you'll need to check the sheet for yourself, which I'm sure you all do. These figs are exhausting but I do enjoy them tremendously.

On the 3 races posted today. We had our #1-speed figure horse win with a good AG fig. We had a close #2 rated speed figure with a top rated AG-LT winner and then in the last was a top rated AG-LT.

I'll be honest, The AG-N has thrown me off-kilter, lol. I'll figure it out and tone it down a bit tomorrow. Remember it is experimental.


Just starting to handicap, so tomorrow's card will be a little later tonight. We're doing 4 nice looking races.

Have a good evening,
Mitch