Paper and Pencil Systems you enjoy

[Capper Al]

Most everything to do with horse racing has a negative ROI. In spite of losing money, are you fond of any P&P systems or methods? I have bought most of them, and consider many of them as a good learning experience.

I enjoyed David Venturo's Quick Pick Winners. He follows a typical system vendor's approach by giving elimination rules first and then using connections for the final selections. What P&P systems have you enjoyed?

[thaskalos]

I have bought most of them too...and, in my opinion...not even ONE of them is worth the paper that it's printed on.

[Flysofree]

System called Magic Squares many years ago. It was a loser, but quick and simple.

[DeltaLover]

Most everything to do with horse racing has a negative ROI. In spite of losing money, are you fond of any P&P systems or methods? I have bought most of them, and consider many of them as a good learning experience.

I enjoyed David Venturo's Quick Pick Winners. He follows a typical system vendor's approach by giving elimination rules first and then using connections for the final selections. What P&P systems have you enjoyed?

PEN & PENCIL ???

IT AIN'T WORKING FOR ME AND I SHOULD NEVER TRY IT AGAIN period

As of yesterday morning, I have had 5 consecutive winning days, while two of them consisted of relatively big scores (over $2K)... Of course, during all these days, I had done my homework, having my models and my databases updated and ready to fire, something that was reflected in hitting a pick5, a large pick4 and at least two large pick3 (sorry for the necessary red-boarding)

Yesterday night, I decided that it was OK to bet without the assistance of my models, custom speed figures and all the additional goodies that my software is providing me with... In other words, my winning streak, simply worked in favour of my over-confidence, which all gamblers have fallen victims, some or many times during their betting careers...

The only input to my handicapping had to come from the racing form alone, since I was lazy enough to not prepare my server for the day... As you can easily assume, my winning streak was broken miserably, as I failed to cash a ticket in any of the approximately 9 races that I ended up betting...

At least for my personal style of handicapping and betting, relying on a pen and pencil approach is the worse approach I might take, converting me to another prey of the take-out and the toughness of the crowd.

[ReplayRandall]

PEN & PENCIL ???

IT AIN'T WORKING FOR ME AND I SHOULD NEVER TRY IT AGAIN period

As of yesterday morning, I have had 5 consecutive winning days, while two of them consisted of relatively big scores (over $2K)... Of course, during all these days, I had done my homework, having my models and my databases updated and ready to fire, something that was reflected in hitting a pick5, a large pick4 and at least two large pick3 (sorry for the necessary red-boarding)

Yesterday night, I decided that it was OK to bet without the assistance of my models, custom speed figures and all the additional goodies that my software is providing me with... In other words, my winning streak, simply worked in favour of my over-confidence, which all gamblers have fallen victims, some or many times during their betting careers...

The only input to my handicapping had to come from the racing form alone, since I was lazy enough to not prepare my server for the day... As you can easily assume, my winning streak was broken miserably, as I failed to cash a ticket in any of the approximately 9 races that I ended up betting...

At least for my personal style of handicapping and betting, relying on a pen and pencil approach is the worse approach I might take, converting me to another prey of the take-out and the toughness of the crowd.

It's always good to be honest with one's wagering successes and failures, even when Red-boarding.... :D

[Capper Al]

System called Magic Squares many years ago. It was a loser, but quick and simple.

Will you tell us a little something about it?

[Capper Al]

I have bought most of them too...and, in my opinion...not even ONE of them is worth the paper that it's printed on.

Most aren't worth the paper that they are printed on. Yet, some will point out a lesson or two on how to handicap. Like I said in the OP, most everything in racing has a negative ROI. But was there a system that was interesting in spite of this?

[Capper Al]

PEN & PENCIL ???

IT AIN'T WORKING FOR ME AND I SHOULD NEVER TRY IT AGAIN period

As of yesterday morning, I have had 5 consecutive winning days, while two of them consisted of relatively big scores (over $2K)... Of course, during all these days, I had done my homework, having my models and my databases updated and ready to fire, something that was reflected in hitting a pick5, a large pick4 and at least two large pick3 (sorry for the necessary red-boarding)

Yesterday night, I decided that it was OK to bet without the assistance of my models, custom speed figures and all the additional goodies that my software is providing me with... In other words, my winning streak, simply worked in favour of my over-confidence, which all gamblers have fallen victims, some or many times during their betting careers...

The only input to my handicapping had to come from the racing form alone, since I was lazy enough to not prepare my server for the day... As you can easily assume, my winning streak was broken miserably, as I failed to cash a ticket in any of the approximately 9 races that I ended up betting...

At least for my personal style of handicapping and betting, relying on a pen and pencil approach is the worse approach I might take, converting me to another prey of the take-out and the toughness of the crowd.

You're talking to the king of ruining systems.

[Flysofree]

Will you tell us a little something about it?

My memory of it is hazy... It had something to do with simply adding numbers from a horse post positions and subtracting numbers from finish positions..Then something to do with the odds. A guy gave it to me at the racetrack one day.

[thaskalos]

Most aren't worth the paper that they are printed on. Yet, some will point out a lesson or two on how to handicap. Like I said in the OP, most everything in racing has a negative ROI. But was there a system that was interesting in spite of this?
Although my memory is still pretty good, I can't for the life of me come up with a system that I would call "interesting". Nor can I agree that they pointed out lessons for me on how to handicap. If anything...I believe they stood as an obstacle to where I wanted to eventually get as a player.

I wanted a thorough understanding of what I interpreted as a dynamic and multi-dimensional game...but the systems advertised great financial rewards for following simplistic rules. I used many of these systems...and none of them even came close to fulfilling their lofty promises. If anything...they taught me that I shouldn't trust those who propose to turn me into a winning horseplayer, in return for handing them a $20 bill or two. Not a bad lesson...now that I think about it.

[Flysofree]

I don't remember the name of the system, but way back in history; I bought a system from a guy named Al Illich.. Now I think that was the spelling. It was a tote board system and like much stuff, I've bought it started out very well. I recall going to Dover Downs and using it on the Harness horses... I won and thought, I'd found the key to paradise. It was short lived of course, but I did learn one thing that I think holds truth today... At some point the sharps or insiders put their money in the parimutual system.... When and how may still hold they key. But what I suspect is that some of the wise guys use bookies and we may or may not see the money in the pools.
Just my 2 pennies about systems.

[ElKabong]

Most everything to do with horse racing has a negative ROI. In spite of losing money, are you fond of any P&P systems or methods? I have bought most of them, and consider many of them as a good learning experience.

I enjoyed David Venturo's Quick Pick Winners. He follows a typical system vendor's approach by giving elimination rules first and then using connections for the final selections. What P&P systems have you enjoyed?

There was a bogus poster here yrs ago named Karlscorner. He posted about the "Chinese Double". Was going to link the thread but it's removed - prolly b/c it was 12-13 years ago.

Pure nonsense, this was.... Prior to the 2nd race of a DD, you look at DD payouts. Take the most bet horse in the 2nd leg and bet it to win. Basically letting the crowd do your handicapping, never a profitable thing to do. But since you asked....

[whodoyoulike]

There was a bogus poster here yrs ago named Karlscorner. He posted about the "Chinese Double". Was going to link the thread but it's removed - prolly b/c it was 12-13 years ago.

Pure nonsense, this was.... Prior to the 2nd race of a DD, you look at DD payouts. Take the most bet horse in the 2nd leg and bet it to win. Basically letting the crowd do your handicapping, never a profitable thing to do. But since you asked....

I don't know Karlscorner or why you would suggest he was bogus. But, his suggestion for the DD has been around for years similar to finding heavily bet legs for multi race bets. I think the logic was insider knowledge.

Btw, I never tried any of them for any extended period of time. It never appealed to me from a handicapping view point. I never had any control.

[ElKabong]

I don't know Karlscorner or why you would suggest he was bogus. But, his suggestion for the DD has been around for years similar to finding heavily bet legs for multi race bets. I think the logic was insider knowledge.

Btw, I never tried any of them for any extended period of time. It never appealed to me from a handicapping view point. I never had any control.

Karl was bogus. He'd boast of nonsense (like the chinese double) angles once in awhile. Things that don't work long term, yet (he said) he made his living in so. Fla betting horses.

Poster GR1 (from my area) offered Karl to meet him at Calder and witness such nonsense. Karl refused to meet GR1 even tho GR1 offered to pay him just $100 to meet up. Karl backed away from the offer. That was pretty much the last of Karl's boastful posts, among which was he'd only be @ the track for 2 or 3 races. Reason = he went home after winning $300 or $400. Didn't want to give it back.

That kind of nonsense (laughing as I type)

If the chinese double was profitable, people would be jumping all over it. As I recall posters tracked the angle. It tanked.

[Robert Goren]

Most everything to do with horse racing has a negative ROI. In spite of losing money, are you fond of any P&P systems or methods? I have bought most of them, and consider many of them as a good learning experience.

I enjoyed David Venturo's Quick Pick Winners. He follows a typical system vendor's approach by giving elimination rules first and then using connections for the final selections. What P&P systems have you enjoyed?The best P &P systems are the ones I came up with myself. I came with a bunch of them when I was first starting out. They usually started out with the speed rating as the base and then add points for various things such as Jockey switches and class drops. Most worked for a while and then stopped dead in its tracks. One caught a couple of $100+ winners in the space of 3 days. One I developed with the aid of a multi regression showed a small positive ROI for over 20 years until they started increasing time between starts. The only one I liked that I did not develop was in a book called The Gamblers Digest.

[shoelessjoe]

Larry Voegele book The Professional Handicapper Method, I also bought Payoff and his seminar book as well.

It worked well at first then downhill from there, actually it worked better for me at the quarter horses

[Robert Goren]

Larry Voegele book The Professional Handicapper Method, I also bought Payoff and his seminar book as well.

It worked well at first then downhill from there, actually it worked better for me at the quarter horses My dad bought the Voegele book. Its picks always looked they should win, went off at low odds and almost never did win.

[delayjf]

As I recall, a lot of folks here had some success with Tim Worths Pops and Tips - which was angle / tote board based. Personnally I never used it.

[dnlgfnk]

When I'm in "lazy" trip handicapping mode, I simply am interested in the horse who made the widest move on the turn last race(s). I can't seem to forget Flaming Glory in Aug '08 at Arlington, who made this move in his previous race...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5R6Al9x1I4

and followed up with the classic easier rail trip, 2E at 7-1 odds...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMhBd033PIc

Of course, to qualify for "pencil and paper", I often locate the widest horse through accessing the charts and inferring position on the turn.

[NorCalGreg]

As I recall, a lot of folks here had some success with Tim Worths Pops and Tips - which was angle / tote board based. Personnally I never used it.

I learned almost all I know about handicapping from Tom Worth and his Pops and Tips. Due to drugs and drink, I could literally study, fascinated....for days on end. The drugs took their toll, as they always do, and I left the game for 12 years, only just getting back end of last year. I use the software version of Tips, that being the only difference from those days (besides my being sober) Horses seem to still run the same---there's just fewer of them around nowadays.

[lamboguy]

something that i look at are horses that keep running 2nd and third. the type that are in the race most of the time.. if those horses never get the lead, i always go against them for the win. if they do happen to make the front i keep them as a win factor in the race.

[reckless]

In the late 1970s-early 80s there was a guy that sold a system he called The Dot System. I even recall the New York Post turf writer/handicapper, John Piesen, writing a story about it.

If I remember correctly, the dot system went like this:

First, buy all the daily newspapers that provided staff selections.

Place a dot next to the horses that was picked on top by the handicappers in each race. The horse with the most dots in a race -- meaning, of course, the horse picked first by the most public selectors was the win bet.

[thaskalos]

In the late 1970s-early 80s there was a guy that sold a system he called The Dot System. I even recall the New York Post turf writer/handicapper, John Piesen, writing a story about it.

If I remember correctly, the dot system went like this:

First, buy all the daily newspapers that provided staff selections.

Place a dot next to the horses that was picked on top by the handicappers in each race. The horse with the most dots in a race -- meaning, of course, the horse picked first by the most public selectors was the win bet.
The guy's name was Howard Henkin, I believe...and he had enlisted Don Adams, of "Get Smart" fame, as a satisfied customer.

[jk3521]

In the late 1970s-early 80s there was a guy that sold a system he called The Dot System. I even recall the New York Post turf writer/handicapper, John Piesen, writing a story about it.

If I remember correctly, the dot system went like this:

First, buy all the daily newspapers that provided staff selections.

Place a dot next to the horses that was picked on top by the handicappers in each race. The horse with the most dots in a race -- meaning, of course, the horse picked first by the most public selectors was the win bet.
Then of course was the "no dot horse". A supposed longshot play. :D

[mickey_arnold]

The guy's name was Howard Henkin, I believe...and he had enlisted Don Adams, of "Get Smart" fame, as a satisfied customer.

I was most impressed with its potential because, Mickey Rooney, the celebrated Hollywood Handicapper, lavishly...I meant richly... endorsed it.

Who says you couldn't make money from it !

[mickey_arnold]

Bert Norman-- Quick Figure Handicapping

Mike Warren--- System of the Century ( actual computer printouts , complete with multiple period punctuation marks....classic typewriter font....very impressive)

Warren wore some many guises in his scamster career, that he should have been a costume designer..

See www.paceadvantage.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-21608.html

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Now here's one I haven't had a chance to check out for any length of time.....Fast Figs and Quick Picks

http://www.todaysracingdigest.com/data/files/handicappingbasicsusingfa.pdf

It's current and could be useful.

The creator is Tim Osterman whose "Fast Figs" are used in the West Coast Today's Racing Digest.

The system keys on his Fast Figs and the M.L. and Final Odds . Modify it with your own Figs and/ or your own ML or Fair Odds, if you wish... Because of its ML and Final odds criteria, it points to strong Fig longshots.

I found few live plays based on its short rules, using my Figs and either the actual ML, an ML projection or my Fair Odds line. Others may have a different experience. Adaptions to its essentials and its simple rules would seem to make it amenable to large database analysis.

I and others without a large database would appreciate the results.

[NorCalGreg]

I was sorta stunned to learn Tim Osterman passed away last year from cancer. He was a very sharp, knowledgeable writer and horseplayer. If you remember Tim or knew him, you can sign his memory book if you'd care to http://obits.reviewjournal.com/obituaries/lvrj/obituary.aspx?pid=171868126

[mickey_arnold]

I was sorta stunned to learn Tim Osterman passed away last year from cancer. He was a very sharp, knowledgeable writer and horseplayer. If you remember Tim or knew him, you can sign his memory book if you'd care to http://obits.reviewjournal.com/obituaries/lvrj/obituary.aspx?pid=171868126

I am blown away by his passing...Never knew him, but boy, was he on top of things....

Here's an explanation of his Fast Figs:

[NorCalGreg]

Thanks Mickey....haven't seen a Racing Digest since the mid 90's. They always seemed so expensive! LOL I know Warren was a charleton of the highest order. His silly mailings during football season were so comical. He would have his lock of the week...then lock of the month, lock of the season, and finally his..............LOCK OF MODERN CIVILIZATION!!!

[appistappis]

one of my first was dan geer's pro rated longshots.....taught me the value of lone speed.

[Dark Horse]

Paper and pencil is old school. I used to be old school. And I held on to it for a long time, because I thought old school was a viable alternative to new school.

It's not.

Without computerization and programming skills analysis is simply not effective. How could the old school pen and paper method compete with programmed sentences, written in a 3D ink that contains an invisible intricacy of formulas? Formulas that need to be programmed only once to perform calculations in less than a second that would otherwise require hours or days?

[Dark Horse]

Paper and pencil did work in the old days.

The one that I have good memories of is a simple method to pencil in the score, described by J.R. Miller in his NFL book. The calculation produced a 14-13 projection in favor of Washington over Dallas, in Dallas. I entered it in a 5K contest at a sportsbook, and forgot about it. With a few minutes left in the game Dallas was up 13-0, and in complete control. Washington hadn't even been in the red zone. I guess my stars must have been aligned, because the miraculous events of the closing minutes won me the contest.

The method? Write down the last four scores for each team. Remove the highest and lowest points scored and points allowed. Average the remaining two. Add the averaged points scored and the other teams averaged points allowed and subtract the league average (20 pts at the time, more now). Do the same for the other team. Round off to the nearest 'real' football score.

As far as horses, at the start of my journey into the sport of kings I focused on quarter horses and came across Carroll's book on speed. I forgot what the method was exactly, but it did work, and required only pencil and paper.

http://www.amazon.com/Handicapping-Speed-Thoroughbred-Quarter-Sprinters/dp/1558214976

[Longshot6977]

Speaking of paper and pencil systems, I was very fond of Ray Taulbot's systems in ATM mag when I was starting out years ago. Still enjoy reading some of his current stuff. Learned a lot from his excellent articles.

[shoelessjoe]

Bill Olmstead The Lone Speed Method

He also had great pace and speed figs way back

Really nice guy

[Tom]

I thought it was the Main Speed method.
I posted about it last year or so, trying to fin d it. I lost my copy and it was a pretty decent idea.

Remember the Alphabet System?

Back when OTB used letters for the horses, if the horse's letter post and the first letter of his name matched, you played it.

Post 4 = D, so if Dancing Bear was in the D hle, you bet the double D combo!

[Sparky13]

Capper Al,

I am surprised you like this P&P System. I have it and have never really had any success. Yes, once in awhile, like every system, it picks some winners, but the ROI for me was terrible. I never really used it to place bets with real money. Just did several hundred races as a test of the system and found out quickly, it wasn't for me.

[Capper Al]

Capper Al,

I am surprised you like this P&P System. I have it and have never really had any success. Yes, once in awhile, like every system, it picks some winners, but the ROI for me was terrible. I never really used it to place bets with real money. Just did several hundred races as a test of the system and found out quickly, it wasn't for me.

I was careful not to suggest that these systems had a positive ROI in the OP. Although these systems would loss money over the long run, I found that many would teach us valuable lessons into handicapping. They shouldn't be discounted for beginners. A lot of the software today owe their algorithms to these P&P pioneers of the game. Some P&P systems were actually fun to play.

[cognibene]

Hi Reckless: I remembered the DOT system was all the rage back in the late '70's and '80's and I believe it worked as well as promoted. After many years of toying with systems and methods, I found a copy of the book on e-bay and bought it cheap. Problem is that here in Southern CA I don't believe the public handicappers publish their picks any more. I'd like to try out the system as it makes a lot of sense. However, the system only works if you get the right mix of handicappers....Speed/Performance+ Long Shot Specialists. It used to be quite simple before but with computerization it's become more difficult to find these guys. Any suggestions would be appreciated (cognibene@roadrunner.com).

Chuck Ognibene