Will Cozmic One break his maiden tomorrow? (Belmont Race 7)

[letswastemoney]

Indian Trail and Securitiz look best in the race to me.

Link to Darley PPs (Just search for Cozmic One) (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Darley/sire_summary.htm)

Cozmic One can win though. I'd rank him maybe third or fourth.

[Robert Fischer]

His debut may have been the race to bet-against.

Common sense would have said "underlay" but it still took some balls at that point given that he hadn't run and failed yet.

Many would be surprised at how little common sense gives you in the 'courage department', unless you are really familiar with how it feels from a recent conscious betting experience.
If you had to be a geek about it and make it sound fancy, you'd say "behavioral finance".

He was under 2-1. The 'consensus'(the public pool) was saying he was good. The authority (some articles) was saying he was anticipated, talented etc...
That's where you got the big opportunity - because it takes balls to go against the consensus and or the authority.

Now everybody on facebook is claiming to be waiting to bet against. That 'balls' hurdle has been lowered or removed.

Without the consensus and the authority to go against, more regular people can go against and you lose that advantage. But you never know. Maybe someone will bet big on Cosmic? Maybe the fans will drive the market?

Maybe we we all still be fortunate and he will be bet like crazy? We will have to wait and see.

[cj]

Will he beat a horse this time?

[Stillriledup]

I liked his gallop out (you can see it on the replay) he's got a shot if he can step it up a little bit.

You need a price though, can't take 2-1 or something like that.

[Stillriledup]

His debut may have been the race to bet-against.

Common sense would have said "underlay" but it still took some balls at that point given that he hadn't run and failed yet.

Many would be surprised at how little common sense gives you in the 'courage department', unless you are really familiar with how it feels from a recent conscious betting experience.
If you had to be a geek about it and make it sound fancy, you'd say "behavioral finance".

He was under 2-1. The 'consensus'(the public pool) was saying he was good. The authority (some articles) was saying he was anticipated, talented etc...
That's where you got the big opportunity - because it takes balls to go against the consensus and or the authority.

Now everybody on facebook is claiming to be waiting to bet against. That 'balls' hurdle has been lowered or removed.

Without the consensus and the authority to go against, more regular people can go against and you lose that advantage. But you never know. Maybe someone will bet big on Cosmic? Maybe the fans will drive the market?

Maybe we we all still be fortunate and he will be bet like crazy? We will have to wait and see.

Read post 10. ;) http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=121833&highlight=Zenyatta

[Robert Fischer]

Read post 10. ;) http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=121833&highlight=Zenyatta

you showed experience calling that one out.


some of the stuff i touch on in this thread is in regards to how these markets work, and the kinds of dynamics that are usually required for a profitable underlay play to form. Those types of things (the dynamics of a market situation) are cool because understanding/recognizing them leads to repeatable income situations.

If you played against last time, I hope he's an underlay again and you get him twice. :ThmbUp:

[Kash$]

Will improve

[Shemp Howard]

Can do, can do. This guy says the horse can do.

[Fingal]

For those that will be on track at Belmont watch how he comes over to be saddled, see if he's composed because at SA he was a handful. In his 1st start John Shirreffs played the part of groom walking him over AND his usual exercise rider was on the horse. Shirreffs has walked his horses in the ring before, but in all my years I had never seen a rider up on anyone when they left the receiving barn.

Beholder has a pony with her when she schools in the afternoon or on race days when she goes to the receiving barn to keep her calm, but nothing that extreme as what Cozmic had.

[letswastemoney]

Before Cozmic One's career debut, I had read about Smart Transition repeatedly outworking him in the mornings.

How are his clocker reports now though? Anyone know? There is a lot of talk about his two bullet workouts.

[Track Collector]

Can do, can do. This guy says the horse can do.

I got it. Clever!

(Now I won't be able to get that tune out of my head.). :)

[classhandicapper]

Will he beat a horse this time?

He didn't have much pace to run into first time out. He's working way better now than he was at that time and Shirreffs horses also often move forward as second time starters. So I'd expect a much improved effort. But this is a pretty tough spot to think he could win after that first start. If he ran a decent 3rd or 4th that would be a good effort to build on.

[cj]

He didn't have much pace to run into first time out. He's working way better now than he was at that time and Shirreffs horses also often move forward as second time starters. So I'd expect a much improved effort. But this is a pretty tough spot to think he could win after that first start. If he ran a decent 3rd or 4th that would be a good effort to build on.

It was a slow pace, no doubt, and may have been a speed favoring day as well. I was just joking around. It is a tough spot. I was pointing out that after his debut, breaking his maiden today might be a tad bit on the ambitious side.

[Prytanis]

I'll be all over him today!
Tri. 8/1,2,9
I think he'll love Belmont.

[classhandicapper]

He's been outworking allowance horses recently, but it's hard to tell how good they are because the workmates have been turf horses with decent but not as good dirt form. The clocker comments are basically that he's been improving in recent weeks. There are some very good prospects against him today though.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Tough race.

I think Cozmic One could well be a big part of this one, but I also am leaning towards the :9: Indian Trail who had a horrible trip in his first out.

[raybo]

This race is a definite pass for me, I never bet races with 20% or more of the field having no qualified distance and or surface qualified races. And, I suspect that the 4/1 morning line is about right, as many Zenyatta fans will find reasons to excuse his debut, and let the 2 bullet works convince them this is a much better horse than raced at SA. Unless you know something about this horse that is not publicly available, betting him at anything close to his morning line just doesn't make sense.

Moving from SA to Belmont is like moving from Earth to Mars. He could absolutely love Belmont, but I wouldn't "bet" on it being enough to produce a win, against this field. Yes, he does have the best late pace in the field, and it's a stretch out, but Belmont is not really a closer's track as some would tend to think it would be.

If Cosmic One's odds today are 8/1 or higher, and he handles the paddock and parade great, sure, take a shot at a complete reversal, but otherwise I'd look for others, or pass.

[Ocala Mike]

I'm going with Jimmy Jerkens' 2TS, :3: , W/P.

[PhantomOnTour]

The :7: should offer value anywhere near his ML of 12-1

[raybo]

If I was forced to bet this one, my ranked contenders would be :2: :5: :7: with the :2: being the most probable winner and :7: being the best value.

[Robert Fischer]

:5::9::2::3: all look decent as well.

[letswastemoney]

Indian Trail is being bet hard in the doubles.

Cozmic One will be the third or fourth choice.

[Robert Fischer]

Indian Trail is being bet hard in the doubles.

Cozmic One will be the third or fourth choice.

Yea, looks to be about 3rd or 4th choice.

Not some great opportunity to play against.

I will pass this race. I don't have a strong enough opinion for the 5 or 9 (or the 3 or 2) to really go after them without a bunch of fan money on the 8.
And, as a fan watching without a ticket, I'd be just as happy to see Cozmic win in visually impressive style. Maybe that would generate a play for me next time.

[Stillriledup]

Johnny V and Todd 4-5 even though the 5 has faster Beyer fig.

What am i missing?

[Robert Fischer]

Johnny V and Todd 4-5 even though the 5 has faster Beyer fig.

What am i missing?

guess they feel that the 9 has responded to his program and conditioning and should be a new horse.

5 is a tempting win bet , but i'll pass

[Kash$]

Turf Next,,had some pace came up empty

[letswastemoney]

guess they feel that the 9 has responded to his program and conditioning and should be a new horse.

5 is a tempting win bet , but i'll passHe has received attention for being Uncle Mo's brother too. He ran well finishing 2nd.

[RacingFan1992]

You think Cozmic One will go 19 starts before breaking his maiden? lol

[Stillriledup]

You think Cozmic One will go 19 starts before breaking his maiden? lol

You might see him at golden gate, give him a try on synthetic in an easier spot.

[Robert Fischer]

Was neat seeing that :6: outrun his odds, but other than that was a bit underwhelmed.

:9::2: etc. got a good setup and just kind of let the grain of the race carry them home.

[Kash$]

You might see him at golden gate, give him a try on synthetic in an easier spot.


imo he will break his maiden on the grass

[Secondbest]

If I was forced to bet this one, my ranked contenders would be :2: :5: :7: with the :2: being the most probable winner and :7: being the best value.
Good call on 2

[classhandicapper]

This was a stronger field than last time, but I think you can argue he ran worse. He had a good pace up front this time, but he didn't make much of a run and he didn't go out well like last time. I hope they wheel him right back to see if he can move forward. If that doesn't work then you try turf. I see no point in laying him off and working him a dozen times.

[raybo]

Good call on 2

My "PFV" ratings are pretty dang good, except when a horse with little or no data comes out of nowhere, thus the "pass" my program gave me.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

This was a stronger field than last time, but I think you can argue he ran worse. He had a good pace up front this time, but he didn't make much of a run and he didn't go out well like last time. I hope they wheel him right back to see if he can move forward. If that doesn't work then you try turf. I see no point in laying him off and working him a dozen times.

In my opinion, he desperately needs class relief. This was a pretty salty field today of some very likely future Graded Stakes quality horses.

They don't need to drop him in for a tag obviously, but something significantly less than $75-$80K MSW races. Maybe one more try at this level, and if he isn't competitive again, they have to try something different.

[Stillriledup]

In my opinion, he desperately needs class relief. This was a pretty salty field today of some very likely future Graded Stakes quality horses.

They don't need to drop him in for a tag obviously, but something significantly less than $75-$80K MSW races. Maybe one more try at this level, and if he isn't competitive again, they have to try something different.

He would win a maiden race at mountaineer by 40 lengths. Maybe the mountain can invite him to one of their maiden races and bump the purse so that he will come? Doesn't hurt to ask. ;)

[OntheRail]

I think they should give him to Jerry Hollendorfer. John Shirreffs has tanked with one of Zenyatta's kin and not doing well with this one either. Can't believe it's the horses... has to be the way they are being conditioned. That's the change I'd make.

[pandy]

I think they should give him to Jerry Hollendorfer. John Shirreffs has tanked with one of Zenyatta's kin and not doing well with this one either. Can't believe it's the horses... has to be the way they are being conditioned. That's the change I'd make.


Wow, are you kidding? Of course it's the horses. First of all, great race mares are often total flops as broodmares, that's a fact, and the longer they race the worse the chances of them becoming good broodmares. Secondly, Sheriffs is an outstanding trainer. Maybe turf will help this horse, that's possible.

Do you have any idea what the odds are of breeding a good horse? Not good. Even most well bred horses turn out to be ordinary and many horses that are bred never make it to the races.

[Secondbest]

My "PFV" ratings are pretty dang good, except when a horse with little or no data comes out of nowhere, thus the "pass" my program gave me.
PFV ?

[OntheRail]

Wow, are you kidding? Of course it's the horses. First of all, great race mares are often total flops as broodmares, that's a fact, and the longer they race the worse the chances of them becoming good broodmares. Secondly, Sheriffs is an outstanding trainer. Maybe turf will help this horse, that's possible.

Do you have any idea what the odds are of breeding a good horse? Not good. Even most well bred horses turn out to be ordinary and many horses that are bred never make it to the races.

No... ;)

[PhantomOnTour]

Breeding is an inexact science :)

[RacingFan1992]

Breeding is an inexact science :)

Yup, Worse race horse makes best brood mare.

Littleprincessemma = 0/2
Won't Tell You = 5/23
My Charmer = 6/32
Somethingroyal = 0/1
Hydroplane II = unraced
Igual = unraced
Quickly = 32/85
Dustwhirl = unraced
Brushup = 0/3
Flamgino = 4/9
Marguerite = 0/1
Lady Sterling = Unknown.

Best combo for a Triple Crown winner is to pick a brilliant sire with a lackluster racing mare. Makes sense.

[Stillriledup]

I think they should give him to Jerry Hollendorfer. John Shirreffs has tanked with one of Zenyatta's kin and not doing well with this one either. Can't believe it's the horses... has to be the way they are being conditioned. That's the change I'd make.

A very patient approach isn't going to harm an inherently talented horse. I'm just suspecting he's not very good. it's amazing to me how you can breed the best to the best and not have a star.

[letswastemoney]

Bernardini is a money burner of a sire, although I don't have the exact statistics. He's a complete 360 in breeding compared to his racing career.

[pandy]

A very patient approach isn't going to harm an inherently talented horse. I'm just suspecting he's not very good. it's amazing to me how you can breed the best to the best and not have a star.


And it happens all the time.

[pandy]

Yup, Worse race horse makes best brood mare.

Littleprincessemma = 0/2
Won't Tell You = 5/23
My Charmer = 6/32
Somethingroyal = 0/1
Hydroplane II = unraced
Igual = unraced
Quickly = 32/85
Dustwhirl = unraced
Brushup = 0/3
Flamgino = 4/9
Marguerite = 0/1
Lady Sterling = Unknown.

Best combo for a Triple Crown winner is to pick a brilliant sire with a lackluster racing mare. Makes sense.

I've often wondered if anyone had complete stats on broodmares who were GR1 winners compared to non graded stakes winning broodmares. It's always seemed to me that the most important key to success for a new broodmare is her family line (pedigree), not what she did on the track.

[RacingFan1992]

I've often wondered if anyone had complete stats on broodmares who were GR1 winners compared to non graded stakes winning broodmares. It's always seemed to me that the most important key to success for a new broodmare is her family line (pedigree), not what she did on the track.

Well look at Sweep. He produced two fine broodmares (Brushup and Dustwhirl) who produced Triple Crown winners.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Bernardini is a money burner of a sire, although I don't have the exact statistics. He's a complete 360 in breeding compared to his racing career.

I'd like to see them hook her up with Hard Spun.