Jockey Switches off Winning Effort

[Robert Goren]

I was wondering about a jockey switch off an winning effort. Assume the horse is reasonably place and the previous jockey is available, is it good or a bad sign? What if the switch is from an average jockey to the best at track? Or the other way around? I have seen a few of the average to the best moves, but do not remember one winning. But I do not trust my memory much these days.

[Stillriledup]

If I love that horse off tape and other factors I'd be glad to see a jock switch, especially to a lesser popular jock who is more than capable.

[plainolebill]

There's a lot of moving parts here. Just off the top of my head I can think of:

Has the rider today ridden the horse previously or is he a regular rider for the stable? If so, the trainer may have committed to ride him back in the next race.

I'm assuming the rider who switched off the horse is in the same race, if so, does he ride regularly for the trainer of his mount today? Then the rider may have a commitment. If he's riding today but not in this race, is he riding any of the earlier races? May have a dental appointment.

With Equisim I can click on the date of a horse last running line and see the last pp with the J/T stats for the pair in a particular race. Pretty handy.

Then there is the unknowable.

But yes, I do take rider switches into account when I handicap. Sometimes more sometimes less. Good jockey agents are sharp.

[thespaah]

I look at the PP's to see if the last out two back or three back was a winning effort or a good placing. If multiple riders have been up, I negate the switch.
One other thing. If the switch is due to a "first call" situation, then the switch is negligible.
For example. When John V was riding first call for Pletcher and JV was up for a win on another horse in today's field, the reason for the switch is obvious.
Now, if the horse in question had a regular rider, last out win or good placing and that rider has gone to another mount for no apparent reason and is replaced by a 'lesser rider', that's a red flag.
In NYRA programs, there is a notation if a rider was named on one that is in and an AE and the AE is that rider's first choice, I must ask myself if the horse that got in is worthy of my money.
Oh.....I will look a few starts back. If today's rider had won on the horse in question a few starts back and has not ridden this horse until today, I consider that a positive.

[Robert Goren]

At one time, when the barn thought they had a horse who could run, they often keep switching jockeys until they got a win. Then they would stick with the jockey(if they could) until they became disappointed in the jockey. I am not sure that is the case so much anymore, but I am still suspicious of jockey switches off a win. What I do wish was public knowledge is who the agent is for each jockey.

[TBD]

Hey Robert, you were asking about a list of agents for jocks. Most tracks have them on their web sites, or you can email them and they will send you one.

[lamboguy]

its usually a tricky read. but the only thing that i can add is that agents and riders are handicapper's too, and sometimes they make mistakes.

if you do this long enough, you can
figure out who are the successful riders in making changes. guys like John Velasquez and Mike Mike Smith don't get on horses at this point of their career's unless they think they have a good shot to win the race.

i like guys like Javier Castellano who is not afraid to ride every race on the card if he has to and gives them all a great ride.

[Robert Fischer]

I was wondering about a jockey switch off an winning effort. Assume the horse is reasonably place and the previous jockey is available, is it good or a bad sign? What if the switch is from an average jockey to the best at track? Or the other way around? I have seen a few of the average to the best moves, but do not remember one winning. But I do not trust my memory much these days.

Someone made a sharp post on a similar thread.

Time of commitment/entry is also important in such situations. If so and so has been pointed to the race for 2 months and enters as early as possible, he may draw a good jock that would have chosen another of the entries had the other horse not entered at the last possible opportunity.

Have to also try to think along. Why the jump-off?? Better horse?, better connections/trainer?
If you can figure out that puzzle and allow for things like entry dates as a possibility, you are ahead of the game.

If you can't figure it out, passing the race will not cost you a dime.:ThmbUp: