Need help for a track profile

[Kash$]

With Saratoga around the corner I would like to create a track profile,any ideas how to get startesd,never created a track profile

Thanks

[cj]

With Saratoga around the corner I would like to create a track profile,any ideas how to get startesd,never created a track profile

Thanks

What about the track are you trying to profile?

[Kash$]

Have no idea how to get started?

What does it detail and how does it help?

Thanks

[cj]

Have no idea how to get started?

What does it detail and how does it help?

Thanks

This is why I asked. Profile means different things to different people. It is an individual thing in my opinion.

But, to get started, you need data, lots of it. Definitely years of charts (since it is a short meeting) and preferably PPs as well.

[DeltaLover]

With Saratoga around the corner I would like to create a track profile,any ideas how to get startesd,never created a track profile

Thanks


You should start by building a complete database with at least the NYRA tracks, Gulfstream, Monmuth, Tampa and Philly for a period couple of years and then data mine it to detect how the SPA is differing from the other meets. Of course, the more tracks your data base contains, the more accurate your conclusions are going to be.

[Clocker]

With Saratoga around the corner I would like to create a track profile,any ideas how to get startesd,never created a track profile

Thanks

Take a look at Tom Brohamer's book, Modern Pace Handicapping. Chapter 8 is called "The Track Profile".

[upthecreek]

http://www.amazon.com/uper-tats-Saratoga-2014/dp/0692247912/ref=sr_1_13_twi_2_pap?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1436210780&sr=1-13&keywords=super+stats

https://www.amerisurf.com/cgi-bin/proghandicap/cart.pl?DT=17

[raybo]

I'm with CJ on this one. You need to determine what it is that you want to profile, in order to know what data you will need to gather. You might be able to use only charts data (for something simple like, what is the average win payout, in order to determine if the track is even worth betting in the first place), but for things like running style and field dynamics regarding pace pressure and the mix of running styles and early speed potential, etc., you will need PP data also.

For instance, I profile what types of horses win, in what categories of pace pressure. Which means I have to have data that tells me each of the entries' preferred running styles and their early speed points, in order to calculate the pace pressure rating for each race, and which running styles are advantaged or disadvantaged in each of those pace pressure categories. I use the results of that profiling for eliminations from win contention.

So, decide what it is that you want to know about a track, the horses, jockeys, and trainers that are involved there, the types of races carded, on what days of the week, pool sizes and which races on the cards result in the largest pools, etc., and/or the way it is bet, etc., etc., before you start gathering data. Otherwise you will probably not help yourself much. It's kind of like programming, you have to know what you want to end up with, before you start.

[Tom]

You can get some basic info free from BRIS At A Glance's.
If you get Simo Daily, get the Winner's Book from last year.

If you have access to old PPs, I would list what tacks send in winners, who does it, what prices....that kind of stuff. You can get all the charts for free back to 1992, and you can buty the PPs from BRIS for the last few meeting, $1 a day.

DRF will most likely off a Player's Guide in next 2-3 weeks with a lot of info in it.

[Kash$]

I use timeformus pps and there pace figures have no idea where to go from there.

[DeltaLover]

Anyway, if you want to know the strongest angle of SPA's profile, it has to do with your ability as a bettor to find and bet shippers from minor circuits (like FL or LAD) finding some squared prices during the meet

[cj]

I use timeformus pps and there pace figures have no idea where to go from there.

I would study what type of runner wins at the various distances and surfaces.

This, however, can be quite the task on turf when you consider there are two different turf courses and both use various rail settings.

[raybo]

At Kee and Sar I don't even use my internal database profiles (meets are too short with too many shippers having no experience at the track). I just use my "PFV" rating (Power Form Velocities) and have done very well at both meets the last couple of years (over 1.20 ROI).

[Kash$]

Aqueduct only track with same circumference as Saratoga?

CJ what about a profile at a track with huge pace figures first two calls can that be done?

[cj]

Aqueduct only track with same circumference as Saratoga?

CJ what about a profile at a track with huge pace figures first two calls can that be done?

Pace figures are adjusted to the track, so you won't see a track that is consistently higher than others like that.

[Kash$]

Pace figures are adjusted to the track, so you won't see a track that is consistently higher than others like that.

Can you or someone send a screenshot if you have one?

[Tom]

Here is what I used to do with PaceFigures (pre=TFUS)

Get the condensed file.

Find the three underlined horses and model them (best early, best late, and 4 Rules horse.

Model how far off the 4 rules horse the winner was anywhere in the past races, sat the 4R horse is 89, and the winner ran a 90 in the past, but not recently - mark it down as +1 (what you are looking at is how good horses with back number do today if other factors indicate it is a contender.

So if you can wet it up in Excel, have a column for date, race #, distance, surface, inner or main, rail setting, class, Early, Late, 4 Rules, Back figs.
You can use the filter to get the race condition for today easily. Just ever race, make and entry and you have a good model going pretty quick.

Ie,

8/3/15... R1... 8.5F.. T... Inner... 18 ft...3...2...1...+4

[Kash$]

Tom thanks timeformUs doesn't have the pace figures in condense version just speed figures

[Tom]

Use the Early and Late pace numbers that make up the Pace Projector.

............E...L
Tracker 87/65

[Kash$]

Thanks for yr help

[Laminarman]

I sense your frustration, I'm learning too. Can you just buy the profile somewhere? Is a track equalization similar?

Is this helpful?

https://www.americanturf.com/equalization/index.cfm?showchart=1

[Clocker]

I sense your frustration, I'm learning too. Can you just buy the profile somewhere? Is a track equalization similar?


One approach to track profiling is to attempt to determine whether the track favors a particular running style for various surfaces or distances. This could be the result of a temporary bias or because of the physical layout of the track.

The track equalization is to allow comparison of similar races run at different tracks.

[Laminarman]

One approach to track profiling is to attempt to determine whether the track favors a particular running style for various surfaces or distances. This could be the result of a temporary bias or because of the physical layout of the track.

The track equalization is to allow comparison of similar races run at different tracks.

Thanks. So am I correct in assuming that if I get the Brisnet PP's (free through Twinspires if I wager), their stats on who wins from the rail, outside...etc, and what type of running style wins what percentage of the time there- that MIGHT be good enough for some people? Then when evaluating a shipper and it's running the same race you might compare using the equalization chart? I had contemplated buying Schwartz product but I'm not even sure how to apply them and I need to learn the basics. I'm working my way through Hambleton's book now with pencil and calculator so I can become familiar at a glance with pace figures and what's fast, what's slow. I am not meaning to hijack this thread and my apologies to the O.P.

[Cratos]

With Saratoga around the corner I would like to create a track profile,any ideas how to get startesd,never created a track profile

Thanks

By definition to profile you are "outlining" and some response suggestions to your question are to look at trainers/owners who run yearly at the Spa because beyond purse value some of the historic stake races are very meaningful to certain stables.

Another suggestion is to look at milers running on the main track in 7f races. This is significant because the "mile race" is not run at the Spa on the main track and the 7f race on the main track have a 1,900 foot run to the turn.

Prepare to see a lot of 5f-5 1/2f sprints on the turf.

Lastly, if you search this website you will find scaled layouts of the Spa, Belmont, and Finger Lakes which I posted. If I have time, I will post layouts of Monmouth and Aqueduct racetracks.

[Kash$]

By definition to profile you are "outlining" and some response suggestions to your question are to look at trainers/owners who run yearly at the Spa because beyond purse value some of the historic stake races are very meaningful to certain stables.

Another suggestion is to look at milers running on the main track in 7f races. This is significant because the "mile race" is not run at the Spa on the main track and the 7f race on the main track have a 1,900 foot run to the turn.

Prepare to see a lot of 5f-5 1/2f sprints on the turf.

Lastly, if you search this website you will find scaled layouts of the Spa, Belmont, and Finger Lakes which I posted. If I have time, I will post layouts of Monmouth and Aqueduct racetracks.


Cratos layout for Saratoga and Aqueduct identical?

[Cratos]

Cratos layout for Saratoga and Aqueduct identical?
The answer is virtually; the reason that I say "virtually" is because the main track at both the Spa and Aqueduct are both 1-1/8 m in distance with nebulous differences in the stretch and turn distances, but the major difference is the chutes. The Spa chute is limited to a 7f race whereas Aqueduct chute run longer distances.

Another major difference is the turf races; NYRA replaced the turf courses at Aqueduct with a winterized track for winter racing.

[betovernetcapper]

The purpose of a profile is to give you a sense of what type of horse or running style is working. When the police are looking for a terrorist or a criminal, they have some kind of image. When they're looking for a suicide bomber, then tend to give the middle aged White guys wearing Brooks Brothers and reading the Wall Street Journal a pass and focus on their mental image of a terrorist.
Start by downloading the August 2014 result charts.
Get a notebook.

On Aug 1st, 2014

Races 1-3 & 4 were 8.5 miles on the main track

Race 5 was 6 furlongs
Race 6 was 7 furlongs

Races 2-7 & 9 were 5.5 turf races

Races 8 & 10 were Inner turf 8.5 furlongs

Divide the page to accommodate the 4 different distances. 5 if you want to treat the 6f & 7f differently.

OK, might look something like this

Race 1.) 8.5 NY Bred Mdn Clm $40,000 lengths behind leader at 1/4 1/2 3/4 & str and any comment you think is relevant.
Then races 3 & 4

Then the sprints and so on.

You can make it just that simple or you can note fast or slow fractions in relation to final time. It's your notebook, put in anything that floats your boat.

By the time you finish this (8 hours ?) you should have some kind of idea of worked last year at Sar. When the spa opens in a few weeks, keep up your notebook and see what's working now.

Hope this is of some use.

[raybo]

The purpose of a profile is to give you a sense of what type of horse or running style is working. When the police are looking for a terrorist or a criminal, they have some kind of image. When they're looking for a suicide bomber, then tend to give the middle aged White guys wearing Brooks Brothers and reading the Wall Street Journal a pass and focus on their mental image of a terrorist.
Start by downloading the August 2014 result charts.
Get a notebook.

On Aug 1st, 2014

Races 1-3 & 4 were 8.5 miles on the main track

Race 5 was 6 furlongs
Race 6 was 7 furlongs

Races 2-7 & 9 were 5.5 turf races

Races 8 & 10 were Inner turf 8.5 furlongs

Divide the page to accommodate the 4 different distances. 5 if you want to treat the 6f & 7f differently.

OK, might look something like this

Race 1.) 8.5 NY Bred Mdn Clm $40,000 lengths behind leader at 1/4 1/2 3/4 & str and any comment you think is relevant.
Then races 3 & 4

Then the sprints and so on.

You can make it just that simple or you can note fast or slow fractions in relation to final time. It's your notebook, put in anything that floats your boat.

By the time you finish this (8 hours ?) you should have some kind of idea of worked last year at Sar. When the spa opens in a few weeks, keep up your notebook and see what's working now.

Hope this is of some use.

That's pretty much what I do when I test these short meet tracks in my program. I use an initial database from 2 years ago (the whole meet because it is so short). Then I run last year's meet against that database, deleting the oldest card from the database before the last processed card is added to the database, keeping the database updated with more recent cards. The program automatically records in the database and/or in the record keeping sheets, for each qualified race; track, date, race number, surface, surface condition, distance, day of the week, class of race, winner's running style and early speed points, pace pressure category of the field, the rankings method's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranked horses' payouts (win, place, and show, and displays finish position if the horse finished 4th), dollars bet, and dollars paid (based on $2 flat win betting), among other things, either recorded or calculated by the program.

Once all of last year's cards have been run through the program I then analyze the 11 different methods' record keeping sheets' recorded race data (one record keeping sheet for each of the 11 rankings methods in the program), looking for days of the week, surface types, surface conditions, classes, distances, etc., that were net losses for the meet. I delete all those net loss races and check the hit percentage, high, average, median, and low payouts, as well as all individual race payouts, for consistency and outliers and adjust or delete outliers as needed, and check the ROI and profit/loss. I also check 11 different minimum odds range reports (from .01/1 or higher through 11/1 or higher) for hit rate, ROI, number of plays, and profit/loss, and decide which of the rankings methods worked best for that meet, as to my own playing preferences.

That all gives me a decent idea of what should work in this year's meet, I usually monitor the first week or so of this year's meet to see if things appear to be carrying forward, and if so, I start betting. If not, then I do more testing and start betting when, and if, I find a method that is working this year. If my testing produces only negative ROIs for all methods then I don't play that track at all (almost without fail, the unplayable tracks are those that have lower than average win payouts. Saratoga is NOT one of those, and has been decently profitable the last 2 years since I created the program.).

[highnote]

Here is a track profile I created a few years ago: