Same driver/trainer Experimental stats (Variables considered)

[coachv30]

I didn't want this post to get buried in my Experiment thread so I decided to make it a thread of it's own. I've taken the data to this point and focused on the winners. My goal is to look at other variables that go along with (the same driver/trainer) angle.

For this data, I used a few horses that I missed the boat on before due to ML odds. I also removed the two outliers ($720 and $109). This left me with a total of 51 winning selections to use as my data sample.

The first variable I looked at is Post Position.

PP 1:

5 winners
$159.80 payouts
Avg- $31.46

PP2

5 winners
$161.10 payouts
Avg- $32.22

PP3 ($7.20 outlier removed)

7 winners
$269.40 payouts
Avg- $38.40

PP4

6 winners
$187.30 payouts
Avg-$31.21

PP5 ($109 outlier removed)

8 winners
$175.40 payouts
Avg-$19.49

PP6

8 winners
$285.00 payouts
Avg-$35.64

PP7

5 winners
$253.90 payouts
Avg-$50.78

PP8

3 winners
$175.80 payouts
Avg- $58.60

PP9

1 winner of $27.10

PP10

1 winner of $54.20

As far as track size goes, 41 of the 51 winners were on the shorter tracks (5/8 or 1/2 mile). The other 10 were on the longer tracks (7/8 or 1 mile).

The next post will look at post position wins based on track size.

[coachv30]

As mentioned in the previous post, 41 of the 51 wins were at a short track.

Out of those 41 wins, 23 came from an outside post (5 or higher)

Post position 5 or 6 accounted for 16 of the 23 victories.


My next variable will focus on field size.

[traynor]

Need the ratios for PP, not the totals. That is, divide the number of winners from each post by the number of selections from that post. That can often add interesting information.

[coachv30]

Need the ratios for PP, not the totals. That is, divide the number of winners from each post by the number of selections from that post. That can often add interesting information.

I caught that late......I'm tallying up the total selections by post right now. It may take a while.

[coachv30]

I didn't want this post to get buried in my Experiment thread so I decided to make it a thread of it's own. I've taken the data to this point and focused on the winners. My goal is to look at other variables that go along with (the same driver/trainer) angle.

For this data, I used a few horses that I missed the boat on before due to ML odds. I also removed the two outliers ($720 and $109). This left me with a total of 51 winning selections to use as my data sample.

The first variable I looked at is Post Position.

PP 1:

5 winners
$159.80 payouts
Avg- $31.46

PP2

5 winners
$161.10 payouts
Avg- $32.22

PP3 ($7.20 outlier removed)

7 winners
$269.40 payouts
Avg- $38.40

PP4

6 winners
$187.30 payouts
Avg-$31.21

PP5 ($109 outlier removed)

8 winners
$175.40 payouts
Avg-$19.49

PP6

8 winners
$285.00 payouts
Avg-$35.64

PP7

5 winners
$253.90 payouts
Avg-$50.78

PP8

3 winners
$175.80 payouts
Avg- $58.60

PP9

1 winner of $27.10

PP10

1 winner of $54.20

As far as track size goes, 41 of the 51 winners were on the shorter tracks (5/8 or 1/2 mile). The other 10 were on the longer tracks (7/8 or 1 mile).

The next post will look at post position wins based on track size.

PP1

73 selections
5 winners

Hit %- 7%

PP2

87 selections
5 winners

Hit %- 5.8 %

PP3

87 selections
8 winners

Hit %- 9.2%

PP4

100 selections
6 winners

Hit %- 6%

PP5

101 selections
9 winners

Hit %- 8.9%

PP6

97 selections
8 winners

Hit %- 8.3%

PP7

80 selections
5 winners

Hit %- 6.3%

PP8

88 selections
3 winners

Hit %- 3.4%

PP9

45 selections
1 winner

Hit %- 2.2%

PP10

15 selections
1 winner

Hit %- 6.6%

[coachv30]

Many more variables as well as data samples to come. However, if I was going to make a spot-play rule up to this point it would be...

* Focus on short tracks and look for horses in the 5 or 6 post with same driver/trainer; with a morning line of 7/1 or more.

My next set of variables will be as follows:

- Post position wins/payouts based on field size

- Results when there are other horses in the race with the same driver/trainer.

[coachv30]

Need the ratios for PP, not the totals. That is, divide the number of winners from each post by the number of selections from that post. That can often add interesting information.


Can you give me some suggestions on what type of data to look at?

[traynor]

Can you give me some suggestions on what type of data to look at?

I'm working on it. When you started (on the first or second day) one of my modeling apps picked the (same) $107 (I think that number is right) winner. It was an anomaly, but it got me started looking at what other possible indicators there might be to locate more such. As soon as I have something definite, I will post it here.

One of the most interesting areas is in regard to the ratings/rankings of the other horses. Certain combinations indicate "none of the above"--meaning in those particular races, the probability of a long priced winner increases considerably (because none of the obvious choices are likely to win).

The long prices have more to do with what the other horses do NOT do than with what the long priced entry does. Short version--I am looking (currently) primarily for indicators (that I used previously to categorize the race as unbettable because of conflicting models) of a long priced winner in that race, and working from there. Again, as soon as I have some definite pattern isolated, I will post it here.

One suggestion: Look at the place horse in the successful races. How often is it the favorite (or other low priced entry) that failed to win, but got up for second? That might open the door to some (very profitable) cold exactas in the races you select.

As I said, your study opens a whole new area of enquiry. Lots of interesting stuff down this road. These are only the first few tentative steps.

[coachv30]

I'd like to revive this thread again in an attempt to determine which factors added to the same driver/trainer angle are a good combination. Tonight, I am just going to keep my eye out for all winners who have the same driver / trainer (or a related trainer), and pay over 5/1.

For the following tracks BUF, FLM, MVR, NFLD, POMP, WDB, there are a total of 72 plays. I will post winners as I come across them.

[coachv30]

Those of you who are unfamiliar with how, and where this started, here's a link below...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=123866&highlight=same+driver+%2F+trainer

[Ray2000]

That same Driver/Trainer I posted for the bomb at Freehold,
was Robot's choice based on best average Trackmaster Class (last 4) and todays Post bias.

Who'd thunk the rail at Freehold would go that high....?

Go get-m coach

[sharkey11]

this is very intersting stuff do any of you guys do thourobreds i rember a guy in vegas he did data on beyer numbers ect. sports stat i think was the name he did data studys realy great stuff . im sure the same could be with standardbreds . thanks gents :ThmbUp:

[coachv30]

So Far we have two wins at Buffalo..

Race 3- Sea Star.....D. McKneight / D. McKneight - $38.00

Race 9: Lucky Millionaire....D. McKneight / D. McKneight- $12.80

[coachv30]

2/26

MVR 3- :3: Fox Valley Shout- $60.40- M. Avenatti / M. Avenatti

MVR 4- :9:Friskie Zena- $27.20- K. Holliday / S. Holliday

[tyler522]

Nice work Coach, think the 2nd race at MVR also winner..$6.80.Melloy tr/dr.

[coachv30]

Nice work Coach, think the 2nd race at MVR also winner..$6.80.Melloy tr/dr.

Thanks Tyler....I'm gonna focus on those who pay $20 or more.

[sharkey11]

s holiday and k holiday are diffrent names im guessing in the famliy counts !

[coachv30]

s holiday and k holiday are diffrent names im guessing in the famliy counts !

Yes.....Family too

[coachv30]

Pompano 6

:6: Divination - $33.20 - J. MacDonald / J. McDonald

:7: Sand Swan- 2nd... $31.40- M. Kruegar / M. Kruegar

:6::7: EXACTA - $466.60 :eek:

I had it for $1.00

[tyler522]

Nice job Coach, had many plays a day on avg. do u have?

[coachv30]

Nice job Coach, had many plays a day on avg. do u have?

It fluctuates depending on the day...not many tonight. I just couldn't pass up boxing those three bombs.

[tyler522]

Which track has produced most winners?

[coachv30]

Which track has produced most winners?

Haven't kept track in a while. Ray's bot may be able to produce that data.

[EdZone]

Which track has produced most winners?

??? Every track each race produce one winner..

[LottaKash]

Pompano 6

:6: Divination - $33.20 - J. MacDonald / J. McDonald

:7: Sand Swan- 2nd... $31.40- M. Kruegar / M. Kruegar

:6::7: EXACTA - $466.60 :eek:

I had it for $1.00

A well spent buck, I'd say....:jump:$$$ :jump:

[tyler522]

No @ Edzone, was asking which track produces most same driver/ trainer winners?

[tyler522]

Ray, can u BOT, tell us which track produces most same driver/trainer winners & maybe by raising driver or trainer win % lower the amount of plays while raising ROI? Thanks in advance

[coachv30]

Big M 3/2

Race 3: :5: Mr. Julian T. Merton / T. Merton- $117.80 :puke:

[coachv30]

3/15

Northfield 2

:8: MIGHTY GARLAND - $182.40 M. Owen / M. Owen (Who?)

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

As mentioned in the previous post, 41 of the 51 wins were at a short track.

Out of those 41 wins, 23 came from an outside post (5 or higher)

Post position 5 or 6 accounted for 16 of the 23 victories.


My next variable will focus on field size.

Whether or not there is a slanted starting gate is also a factor.

It is a big edge for speed horses, especially from outside posts.