Solis on Rock Hard Ten

[OTM Al]

Just saw that Pat Valenzuela was denied a stay of his suspension and will not be up on Rock hard Ten Saturday. Alex Solis will get the mount.

[BeatTheChalk]

He is one helluva jockey ....the go to guy for Frankel when the
big money is down ...Rode many a horse owned by Herb Alpert
over the years...

[Suff]

Originally posted by BeatTheChalk
He is one helluva jockey ....the go to guy for Frankel when the
big money is down ...Rode many a horse owned by Herb Alpert
over the years...

NY papers reporting he's had two very impressive solid works on the strip this week and looks stupendous.

[OTM Al]

He's a very strong horse to be sure. I watched the Preakness again a few times yesterday and his initial move was just as strong as Smarty's in the final turn. There was no answer to that final burst Smarty had on him down the stretch though. He has to be much closer in the stretch if he is to have a shot. When it was only looking like a five horse field, I rated his chances much better, but now there will be much more traffic to contend with, always the closer's bane

[Valuist]

Let's not forget the horse lost a ton of ground on both turns. He is the only other horse besides SJ that made a move in the race. I have to think the wide sweeping turns will suit this horse better than Pim. Will it be enough to make up the 11 lengths?

[OTM Al]

I don't think the question is can he make up 11 (really 12) lengths. The question is can he make up 5, which is reasonable, and Smarty lose 7. The second part is key as I would answer yes to the first part. RHT definitely has the talent to improve. Given his current form, can Smarty lose 7. Yes, but I don't think he will.

[Valuist]

I would not be shocked to see SJ come back to the field. While some of the Triple Crown attemptees may have not been worthy, there's been a few good horses who've been stopped by the Belmont: Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Pleasant Colony. If those horses could be stopped, it seems foolish for one to take 1 to 5 or possibly even 1 to 9. I want to root for SJ as a fan, but if I do bet the race, I will have to go against him.

[OTM Al]

I'm probably going with him for the most part, but with exotics only. WPS is right out.

RHT just got about 2 of his lengths with Smarty drawing the 9 hole.

[Valuist]

I have a feeling that if Smarty does win, Rock Hard Ten and Purge will be way off the board. I still think RHT potentially can win, but if the wheels start coming off for either him or Purge, they can become the caboose. I may play RHT to win at 8-1 or better, and maybe some exactas like Smarty Jones-Royal Assault and Smarty Jones-Caiman. Royal Assault and Caiman have no dreams of winning; they are running for the minor rewards. But those types are often the types that bust up chalky exacta combinations.

[OTM Al]

Agreed. I think the possible in the money surprise horse may well be Royal Assault. Caimen is this race's Water Cannon as far as I'm concerned though. I'm putting Purge no better than 3rd as I think he will regress a bit (not bounce) off his Peter Pan because of the 2nd turn and the fact that he will not likely be in a nice stalking position. I full expect to see Eddington up to 2nd if RHT falls out. Had to make my bets for the contest already as I'm going out of town, so my opinions on the race are now known fact. Played it a little stronger than I normally would, but I don't see the likelihood of big surprises being strong here

[Hosshead]

What do you think the show prices would be if SJ runs out of the money? Just a fictional question. :D

[fmhealth]

I'm playing $2.00 on ALL to show except Smarty. A $16.00 bet. Most likely result is that Smarty runs 1st, 2nd or 3rd. If that happens I'll lose a few bucks. BUT, and I know it's a BIG BUT, Smarty runs OTM. The show prices will be in the $100-200 range. I'd give this outcome a 3-5% chance of playing out in this manner. Good way to enjoy the race, bet a few dollars & possibly walk away with a $500.00 payday !!!

[PaceAdvantage]

I liked RHT a lot in the Preakness, and thought he had a major shot at beating SJ if he improved just a little bit.

But watching RHT under the whip before they even hit the stretch is a little disconcerting. Wide or not, he had LITTLE to give in the home stretch of the Preakness, and the jock knew it before they even left the turn.

I can't see how 2.5 more furlongs is going to really help his cause.

He's lightly raced, and could improve, but on the other hand, HE IS LIGHTLY RACED, and this campaign has to have been TOUGH on him. He just as easily implode on Saturday.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Hosshead
What do you think the show prices would be if SJ runs out of the money? Just a fictional question. :D

I don't know what the payoffs could be........but I will cap the race like Smarty is out..........

then play a tri box for 6 bucks and if something happens to him and he is out of the tri...........boxcars...........could come in......