View Full Version : Tonalist/Suburban H
Some_One
07-04-2015, 05:18 PM
In the closeup shot of the last 100 meters or so of the race, it appears that Johnny V is repeatedly striking Tonalist on the top of the head, no real force, but still nonetheless it can't be standard? Or am I seeing it wrong?
SharpCat
07-04-2015, 06:07 PM
In the closeup shot of the last 100 meters or so of the race, it appears that Johnny V is repeatedly striking Tonalist on the top of the head, no real force, but still nonetheless it can't be standard? Or am I seeing it wrong?
After he switched the whip form left to right he does strike the top of his head on 2 occasions. He was just showing the horse the whip and inadvertently struck the top of his head.
EMD4ME
07-04-2015, 06:13 PM
In the closeup shot of the last 100 meters or so of the race, it appears that Johnny V is repeatedly striking Tonalist on the top of the head, no real force, but still nonetheless it can't be standard? Or am I seeing it wrong?
It's called: John Velazquez sucks :)
In this instance, he made me very happy being so bad. Did you see what he did on the backstretch?
Cost Tonalist 5 lenghts...
Terrible distribution of energy ride, terrible. But not unexpected, JV sucks.
Clocker
07-04-2015, 06:18 PM
Terrible distribution of energy ride, terrible. But not unexpected, JV sucks.
No, no. One of the NBC experts said Tonalist lost because it was a handicap race and he was spotting 6 lbs to the winner. :rolleyes:
badcompany
07-04-2015, 08:16 PM
The horse had every chance to win.
He just didn't have his A game.
EMD4ME
07-04-2015, 10:49 PM
No, no. One of the NBC experts said Tonalist lost because it was a handicap race and he was spotting 6 lbs to the winner. :rolleyes:
Then I should start watching NBC to educate myself :liar: :lol: :lol: :lol:
raybo
07-04-2015, 11:09 PM
Looked like Tonalist wasn't his best today, but Effinex's coming out on him a couple of times in the stretch didn't help.
Robert Fischer
07-04-2015, 11:11 PM
i need to watch the NYRA HD replay before i comment...
EMD4ME
07-04-2015, 11:13 PM
Looked like Tonalist wasn't his best today, but Effinex's coming out on him a couple of times in the stretch didn't help.
JV has cost the connections hundreds of thousands of dollars in his last 2 starts.
What genius decided to use him in his last 2?
letswastemoney
07-04-2015, 11:18 PM
I thought the ride on Tonalist was fine. If he didn't move early, Coach Inge may have had enough of a breather to win.
Shemp Howard
07-04-2015, 11:31 PM
Tonalist needs the hood.
Stillriledup
07-04-2015, 11:38 PM
JV has cost the connections hundreds of thousands of dollars in his last 2 starts.
What genius decided to use him in his last 2?
People who don't actually watch races and just go on reputation ?
ArlJim78
07-04-2015, 11:55 PM
The horse had every chance to win.
He just didn't have his A game.
Effinex got a 108 Beyer / 126 TFUS, with Tonalist a nose back I think it might have been a life time top for him.
Clocker
07-05-2015, 12:12 AM
Then I should start watching NBC to educate myself :liar: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Hey, weight can stop a freight train. Imagine the impact of 6 lbs on a 1200 lb animal. :eek:
The high point of education today was when the crack NBC crew explained that the owner of the winner, Effinex, had named the horse in honor of his recently divorced wife. :p
Kash$
07-05-2015, 08:33 AM
People on twitter want HOF Velasquez replaced.:rolleyes:
tubesockshakur
07-05-2015, 08:52 AM
Turns out that race cost me 5 out of 6 but it wouldn't have paid anything. J.R. seems to have better luck with the horse but it's tough for me to fault john V.
EMD4ME
07-05-2015, 09:01 AM
People who don't actually watch races and just go on reputation ?
That's pretty stupid.
EMD4ME
07-05-2015, 09:02 AM
Turns out that race cost me 5 out of 6 but it wouldn't have paid anything. J.R. seems to have better luck with the horse but it's tough for me to fault john V.
I wouldn't call it better luck. Joel is simply much better than JV. Now please don't confuse my statement as me actually saying Joel is great. He is far from great as well.
EMD4ME
07-05-2015, 09:03 AM
i need to watch the NYRA HD replay before i comment...
I absolutely LOVE their HD. LOVE IT LOVE IT LOVE IT.
classhandicapper
07-05-2015, 10:35 AM
I thought Tonalist was moved a bit prematurely into the fast pace. IMO, he was better than Effinex in that race. However, I think a reasonable case can be made that Coach Inge was the best of the three. He was out there winging in a very fast pace early and was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths.
I think we also now know that Coach Inge is a very sharp horse. So for those that have been arguing that American Pharoah can't be a very good horse because he only ran between 2/5 and 3/5 faster than Coach Inge, you may want to reconsider how good Coach Inge is.
I said from the start not to trust the figures from Belmont day because the track was drying out and the wind shifted. Plus, you could make a reasonable case for the 1 1/2 mile races being faster than most people were scoring them. Coach Inge is very good right now and AP is great.
DeltaLover
07-05-2015, 10:42 AM
Although Tonalist was without a doubt the most frequent winner of the race, he was still a huge underlay. Whoulda, coulda shoulda, about how he was ridden or running without blinkers, do not change the fact that astute handicappers should have never bet him in the race.
badcompany
07-05-2015, 11:09 AM
The horse that won was the best horse.
Coach Inge fell apart late, and Tonalist had dead aim but couldn't pass.
No, no. One of the NBC experts said Tonalist lost because it was a handicap race and he was spotting 6 lbs to the winner. :rolleyes:
The difference was a bob of the nose. Six pounds will turn that around and then some. Six pounds to a horse is like one pound to a man. Put a half-pound weight on each side of your body-- a roll of quarters weighs about that much-- and you will run slower than you would without it.
classhandicapper
07-05-2015, 11:27 AM
The horse that won was the best horse.
Coach Inge fell apart late, and Tonalist had dead aim but couldn't pass.
Not much of a pace guy I see?
badcompany
07-05-2015, 11:35 AM
Not much of a pace guy I see?
It wasn't like Coach barely lost. He was completely done at the end of the race.
The excuses here are tiresome. Tonalist was odds on. He shouldn't need picture perfect conditions to win.
letswastemoney
07-05-2015, 12:24 PM
I would rate Coach Inge as the best horse in the race.
He wasn't supposed to be have anything left after taking all the heat. It was understandable that the two passed him late, but from a pace standpoint he did all the dirty work.
Bullet Plane
07-05-2015, 01:10 PM
I would rate Coach Inge as the best horse in the race.
He wasn't supposed to be have anything left after taking all the heat. It was understandable that the two passed him late, but from a pace standpoint he did all the dirty work.
Agree. After the first quarter of 22 and change, then reeled off another, 23 and one. while dueling outside...
and then hanging tough to lose by 1.5 lengths and a 105 Beyer...
(should have been a pair up of his last, but that is a question for another day)
That was by far and away the best performance in the race!
Ocala Mike
07-05-2015, 01:52 PM
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That was by far and away the best performance in the race!
What window at the track pays off for the best performance in the race?
CI and Tonalist were both overbet - the winner was an overlay because of the "bad paper" last race he came in with. His ride and performance was flawless yesterday.
Secondbest
07-05-2015, 02:12 PM
It's called: John Velazquez sucks :)
In this instance, he made me very happy being so bad. Did you see what he did on the backstretch?
Cost Tonalist 5 lenghts...
Terrible distribution of energy ride, terrible. But not unexpected, JV sucks.
Tell us What you REALLY think of JV
EMD4ME
07-05-2015, 02:20 PM
Tell us What you REALLY think of JV
I just call it like it is. He is completely over rated.
Donttellmeshowme
07-05-2015, 03:17 PM
I just call it like it is. He is completely over rated.
I agree 100%
pandy
07-05-2015, 04:05 PM
Regardless of what you think about Johnny V, not using Rosario on Tonalist made now sense whatsoever. He won a couple of little races called the Belmont Stakes and the Jockey Gold Cup with the horse and both were excellent rides.
badcompany
07-05-2015, 04:08 PM
What window at the track pays off for the best performance in the race?
CI and Tonalist were both overbet - the winner was an overlay because of the "bad paper" last race he came in with. His ride and performance was flawless yesterday.
Screen shot after the wire. Tonalist never passed him.
Bigadam119
07-05-2015, 04:21 PM
Regardless of what you think about Johnny V, not using Rosario on Tonalist made now sense whatsoever. He won a couple of little races called the Belmont Stakes and the Jockey Gold Cup with the horse and both were excellent rides.
If you really had to switch riders, why do you not use Javiar Castellano? He's the best rider in the sport right now IMO and I'm sure he would take that mount.
Bigadam119
07-05-2015, 04:45 PM
I just call it like it is. He is completely over rated.
I have to agree. I am fairly new to racking and used to get caught up on the name with him. Rarely does he win a race without being on the absolute best horse. I think he benefits from having an excellent agent that gets him on the best horses time after time. One of the biggest jokes was in this years derby and Belmont when Pletcher said that Castellano rides whichever horse Johnny doesn't want to ride. Velasquez isn't even in the same ballpark with Castellano.
Stillriledup
07-05-2015, 06:47 PM
I have to agree. I am fairly new to racking and used to get caught up on the name with him. Rarely does he win a race without being on the absolute best horse. I think he benefits from having an excellent agent that gets him on the best horses time after time. One of the biggest jokes was in this years derby and Belmont when Pletcher said that Castellano rides whichever horse Johnny doesn't want to ride. Velasquez isn't even in the same ballpark with Castellano.
That's incredible how one guy is ahead of a much more talented guy. Very few jocks have gotten "the best horse" beat more than this guy (jv) and probably very few jocks have a lower win percentage than this guy when he's NOT on the best horse.
EMD4ME
07-06-2015, 12:08 AM
I agree 100%
Back out the zillions of wins where he just pumped to death for 65 seconds (2 year 5 1/2 F wire jobs by Pletcher First time starters) and what do you have?
A ham and egger that bats 8%-10% and is always afraid of
1) His next accident
2) Any kind of inclement weather
3) His shadow
EMD4ME
07-06-2015, 12:16 AM
Regardless of what you think about Johnny V, not using Rosario on Tonalist made now sense whatsoever. He won a couple of little races called the Belmont Stakes and the Jockey Gold Cup with the horse and both were excellent rides.
That's my point. Rosario rode him perfectly. In 2014's Peter Pan Tonalist was pulling and he didn't do what most NYRA pin heads do, CHOKE, he let him run. He crushed that day.
Belmont Stakes...Rosario did the best he could with the hand that was dealt him. Bad post but stalked well, rode the hair off of him down the lane and despite the hung 4 wide around the track stressed out trip, he still got up.
I can't see any reason why JV would be on this horse. JV needs to just ride Pletcher's coat tails and win his 2 yo baby races wire to wire. He is not anywhere near the top of the pathetic jockey colony with anything but those 2 year olds (the same 2 yo's that most people's grandma can ride).
Regardless, now (and in the Suburban) it's a known reason to bet against Tonalist. As long as JV is aboard, the horse has no shot.
Junior not only took JV's pants off, he placed them upside down on JV's head, put shaving cream on the top (so when JV reached for them his hands got dirty) during the run down the backstretch and far turn Saturday. It was subtle but amazing.
Stillriledup
07-06-2015, 12:24 AM
Back out the zillions of wins where he just pumped to death for 65 seconds (2 year 5 1/2 F wire jobs by Pletcher First time starters) and what do you have?
A ham and egger that bats 8%-10% and is always afraid of
1) His next accident
2) Any kind of inclement weather
3) His shadow
t5J_AUUOT8k
EMD4ME
07-06-2015, 12:30 AM
t5J_AUUOT8k
:lol: :lol: :lol:
They're the same height too!
Not saying JV isn't a nice guy but he is such a "terrible energy distribution" jockey.
He is only good at pumping to death every step of the way.
Sure every once in a while, like all the over rated jocks out there, he might throw one in that smells like a great ride.
Every broken clock is right twice a day, if only for a second.
Robert Fischer
07-06-2015, 01:59 AM
Johnny V can still ride.
You guys are tough critics :D
Is he overrated? Sure. I'll give you that, if his fans are saying hes a game-changer turning in all these brilliant rides...
He's not winning a bunch of races with brilliant rides.
He still gives a good ride more often than almost all the others. He still is more dependable to take good care of the horse. He's got class and experience on his side.
If he has an obvious fault, maybe he takes the overland route too readily in general. He's had some accidents, and at least the word is he doesn't love to sit in the hole like Effinex in the Suburban, or like Dominguez would, drafting in directly behind the pace. Allegedly he tends to find himself a path or two wider in those situations.
I honestly haven't been deep enough into the game of late to where I have a book on every jockey, but that seems fair enough to me.
pandy
07-06-2015, 07:35 AM
That's my point. Rosario rode him perfectly. In 2014's Peter Pan Tonalist was pulling and he didn't do what most NYRA pin heads do, CHOKE, he let him run. He crushed that day.
Belmont Stakes...Rosario did the best he could with the hand that was dealt him. Bad post but stalked well, rode the hair off of him down the lane and despite the hung 4 wide around the track stressed out trip, he still got up.
I can't see any reason why JV would be on this horse. JV needs to just ride Pletcher's coat tails and win his 2 yo baby races wire to wire. He is not anywhere near the top of the pathetic jockey colony with anything but those 2 year olds (the same 2 yo's that most people's grandma can ride).
Regardless, now (and in the Suburban) it's a known reason to bet against Tonalist. As long as JV is aboard, the horse has no shot.
Junior not only took JV's pants off, he placed them upside down on JV's head, put shaving cream on the top (so when JV reached for them his hands got dirty) during the run down the backstretch and far turn Saturday. It was subtle but amazing.
I totally agree about the Peter Pan. Tonalist was on the bit and Rosario just let him run. I hate seeing riders hard holding horses. Occasionally you see a horse win a slow paced turf race while being hard held, but on dirt it usually results in a dull effort. Julian Lepaurox hard holds a lot of horses that come up empty.
Pine Tree Lane
07-06-2015, 03:54 PM
That's my point. Rosario rode him perfectly. In 2014's Peter Pan Tonalist was pulling and he didn't do what most NYRA pin heads do, CHOKE, he let him run. He crushed that day.
Belmont Stakes...Rosario did the best he could with the hand that was dealt him. Bad post but stalked well, rode the hair off of him down the lane and despite the hung 4 wide around the track stressed out trip, he still got up.
I can't see any reason why JV would be on this horse. JV needs to just ride Pletcher's coat tails and win his 2 yo baby races wire to wire. He is not anywhere near the top of the pathetic jockey colony with anything but those 2 year olds (the same 2 yo's that most people's grandma can ride).
Regardless, now (and in the Suburban) it's a known reason to bet against Tonalist. As long as JV is aboard, the horse has no shot.
Junior not only took JV's pants off, he placed them upside down on JV's head, put shaving cream on the top (so when JV reached for them his hands got dirty) during the run down the backstretch and far turn Saturday. It was subtle but amazing.
You conveniently left out Rosario's ride on Tonalist in the Breeders Cup Classic. How would that stack up?
DeltaLover
07-06-2015, 04:07 PM
Johnny V can still ride. Is he overrated?
IHMO JV is not overrated by any means; as his stats are clearly suggesting he is the best and most consistent Northern American jockey of our era.
Robert Fischer
07-06-2015, 04:08 PM
Here's a funny question for this thread;
Does John Velazquez win this race aboard Coach Inge??
There may be few handicappers that say "yes".
Just a funny thought that occurred to me. Maybe we are disparaging the wrong ride in this race...
raybo
07-06-2015, 05:17 PM
I'll say this much, I wouldn't get off a horse just because JV is the jockey. We have a few people here who hate him, and as far as I can tell that is what is governing their comments, some of which are using it to promote their video replay priorities. Replays can certainly be helpful, no doubt, but I find them helpful primarily to excuse a horse's poor performance for future race analysis.
classhandicapper
07-07-2015, 08:46 AM
Here's a funny question for this thread;
Does John Velazquez win this race aboard Coach Inge??
There may be few handicappers that say "yes".
Just a funny thought that occurred to me. Maybe we are disparaging the wrong ride in this race...
I thought Coach Inge ran the best race. Coach Inge has won from off the pace, but he probably does his best running on the lead. It didn't shock me he went for it. The ride I question is the one on Street Babe. If anything, the inside was not the place to be on Saturday. Rosario gunned to the lead on the inside with a horse that could clearly rate. I think the right move would have been to rate, move outside, and sit off the leader in good position. Street Babe probably wasn't getting anything anyway, but the way he was ridden guaranteed he would be last.
Ocala Mike
07-07-2015, 09:15 AM
classhandicapper, Rosario's ride makes perfect sense in the context of the "bad blood" that carried over between him and I. Ortiz stemming from the 8th race on Wed., 7/1. Joel wasn't getting anything with STREET BABE, but he was gonna make sure Irad didn't get anything either. Revenge is best served cold.
Go to the DQ thread to get a feel for what I'm saying here. These jocks don't ride in a vacuum; there's a lot of bad vibes in the jock's room that we don't know about.
classhandicapper
07-07-2015, 09:28 AM
classhandicapper, Rosario's ride makes perfect sense in the context of the "bad blood" that carried over between him and I. Ortiz stemming from the 8th race on Wed., 7/1. Joel wasn't getting anything with STREET BABE, but he was gonna make sure Irad didn't get anything either. Revenge is best served cold.
Go to the DQ thread to get a feel for what I'm saying here. These jocks don't ride in a vacuum; there's a lot of bad vibes in the jock's room that we don't know about.
I'm sure stuff like that exists, but if I started incorporating that kind of thing into my own thinking I'd really get confused.
Tall One
07-07-2015, 01:53 PM
I'm sure stuff like that exists, but if I started incorporating that kind of thing into my own thinking I'd really get confused.
Great post. I mean, some stuff you just have to chalk up as part of the damn game and move on.
And agree with Ray's post on top of the page. If a buddy said, "Hell with this one, JV is up today" I'd have to ask him to go stand over there------>.
Stillriledup
07-07-2015, 02:08 PM
IHMO JV is not overrated by any means; as his stats are clearly suggesting he is the best and most consistent Northern American jockey of our era.
His stats?
What you are saying is equivalent to saying the cleanup hitter on a first place MLB team is better than the cleanup hitter on a last place club because he has more RBI.
Tall One
07-07-2015, 02:51 PM
His stats?
What you are saying is equivalent to saying the cleanup hitter on a first place MLB team is better than the cleanup hitter on a last place club because he has more RBI.
Sounds like more of a big fish small pond theory, SRU. The guy batting in the 4 spot in Florida can make the ASG just the same as an LA Dodger.
Will that same Florida(Miami) guy be playing in October/November? Probably not.
Stillriledup
07-07-2015, 04:22 PM
Sounds like more of a big fish small pond theory, SRU. The guy batting in the 4 spot in Florida can make the ASG just the same as an LA Dodger.
Will that same Florida(Miami) guy be playing in October/November? Probably not.
My point was that making a determination on the talent level of a jockey thru stats is a bad idea, unless they are advanced stats. Take Pletcher out of JVs life and he has way less wins and money, but he's still the same jockey, he doesn't lose the skills he has if he stops riding for Todd.
Tall One
07-07-2015, 04:32 PM
Ok, gotcha... :ThmbUp:
EMD4ME
07-12-2015, 11:43 PM
Glad to hear (via Trips n Traps) that JV acknowledged how terrible his ride was in the Suburban.
Not being sarcastic. Many times with these subtly terrible rides, I honestly don't know if these jockeys actually know they screwed up. Glad to hear him acknowledge it.
Lemon Drop Husker
07-12-2015, 11:47 PM
Glad to hear (via Trips n Traps) that JV acknowledged how terrible his ride was in the Suburban.
Not being sarcastic. Many times with these subtly terrible rides, I honestly don't know if these jockeys actually know they screwed up. Glad to hear him acknowledge it.
God forbid they be human riding 1300 pound animals trying to guide them to your truest heart (wallet) content.
You make a poor wager, it is their fault..., amirite?
EMD4ME
07-13-2015, 12:21 AM
God forbid they be human riding 1300 pound animals trying to guide them to your truest heart (wallet) content.
You make a poor wager, it is their fault..., amirite?
If it's an incident, then I have no problem with it. I never ever ONCE got mad at Ramon, despite losing thousands on him getting buried here and there.
It's when it's a TREND that I have zero sympathy for these over rated jocks.
And please don't even try to insinuate that I'm crying over a poor wager....
I bet Effinex in the Suburban. I made money OFF JV's incompetency.
Yes, I did lose money in the Met. I had a cold double smashed (from Friday to Saturday on Tonalist).
However, I am SPOCK when it comes to handicapping. No heart involved. I call it as I see it. No homer here...
JV is a terrible fit for this horse. Terrible. They better take him off or they will not be seeing many victories in the future with Tonalist.
SoCalCircuit
07-13-2015, 12:34 AM
Somewhat of a similar ride on A Lot today by Johnny V.
EMD4ME
07-13-2015, 12:46 AM
Somewhat of a similar ride on A Lot today by Johnny V.
It's funny you say that.... 4 horse field. rail horse was overmatched with no speed. Thought the 4 would sit back and try and make the last move.
I knew JV would not send as he didn't want to be committed to the lead (and what if Lezcano pushed too much). I bet the 6 banking on JV riding too confident and VIOLA, a $20 plus dollar exacta with a 1/5 second.
It's amazing this game....and sorry for the minor redboard but proving a point.
All because another over rated jock (the entire NYRA colony fits the discription-the names are interchangeable-JV, Javier, Lezcano, Coernelio, Iherd, J Ortiz, A Cruz, etc.) didn't ride like a champion jock.
Why take 1/5 when you know, 90% of the time, you will not get a championship ride?
You think Jerry Bailey gets caught losing on that 1/5????
Only once in 10,000 races.
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