The Betting Aspect of Playing the Races

[trying2win]

A lot of discussion goes on at this website about various ways of "picking winners". That's one part of the strategy. The other part is about how to bet your selections in various scenarios.

Would be interesting to see what betting strategies other PA members like to employ, in some of these situations:

1. Do you wager the same way ...i.e. win only, win and place, or various gimmick bets on every race you find bettable?...or does it depend on the odds you get on the horse (or horses) you like etc?

2. Do you raise the amount of your bets after you achieve certain profit levels?

3. Do you lower the amount of your bets when you hit the proverbial "brick wall" and encounter a losing streak?

4. During a losing streak for example, do you change from win bets to place bets until you get some of your confidence back? ... or exacta bets to just win bets?

4. How do you handle your emotions during the high and low result periods out at the track? Everyone knows it's easier to keep cooler and calmer during a winning streak (especially if you've hit a few good payoffs). But, do you keep cool most of the time during losing streaks? Do you maintain an air of confidence in your ability to "bounce back" and hit a winning pattern again? ...or do you sometimes get carried away by your emotions by betting too much or too little, while trying to rebound to a winning scenario again?

5. How much importance do you place on the handicapping process versus the betting process while playing the races?
Is it a 50 - 50 percentage split for you? ...or... is 60% of the importance in the handicapping, and 40% is in the betting part.
etc.

Thanks,

T2W

[timtam]

This is a very interesting thread because it kind of puts the human element into a losing streak. Countless systems and betting progressions all tell you to stay the course and not let the fact your bankroll is dwindling effect your next wager. Most of the systems always end with a winner ,hence, every betting progression will work but we all know in reality that doesn't happen.

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

Good Topic T2W,

Take yesterday for example. I has various horses at many tracks I liked.

Phil Pk 1 Horse 1 Race
Finger Lakes 2 Horses 2 Races
Belmont 2 Horses 2 Races
Delaware Pk 2 Horse 2 Races
Louisiana Downs 5 Horses 5 Races
Arlington Pk 7 Horses 5 Races
Monmouth Pk 6 Horse 6 Races
Mountaineer Pk 2 Horses 2 Races
Churchill Downs 12 Horses 7 Races
Lone Star 19 Horses 9 Races

So as you can see I had to make a decision. Was i going to play all thoses races ? No

What races would I play ? And how would this be decided ?

I decided to play the tracks with the most horses running .

I notice that at both tracks ( Churchill Downs & Lone Star)

I had as many as 4 horse running in the same race .

And a few races I had at least 2 horses running .

What's a man to do ? I had to decide Ex Box 4 horses, Tri Box

Ex P/w or Pick 3 . I deceided that the best way to go was

Pick 3 . This is why If in the race at least one of my horses wins

I'm alive to the next leg . If I play Ex and the other horses dont

finish 2nd Im screwed. My decision was the correct one .

Lone Star

Pick 3

R4 1x4x2 = $16.00
R5 4x2x2 = $32.00
R6 2x2x4 = $32.00
R7 2x4x1 = $16.00
R8 4x1x3 = $24.00
R9 1x3x1 = $ 6.00

Total = $126.00

I wouldnt have hit any Ex Or Tri, I would have lost for the day
and let 6 Winners get away. But I didnt .

R4-6 Pick 3 paid $465.00

R5-7 Pick 3 paid $85.00

R6-8 Pick 3 paid $106.20

Total $656.20 minus $126.00

Profit $530.20

Remember sometimes its Not who you Bet its How you Bet

Have a Good Day

Jimmy

[alysheba88]

Far too much time and effort is put into "picking winners' (which is a wrong approach anyway) and not nearly enough into how to bet your opinion.

[Valuist]

I think field size plays a big role in how I wager. For trifectas, I prefer a minimum of 9 betting interests. For exactas, a minimum of 8. Field size also plays a big role in how much I'll spread out in P3s or P4s.

[pmd62ndst]

My main play is straight win bets for odds between 5-1 and 18-1. I generally like to price wagers at around 1% of my bankroll. If my bankroll is $4k then I place $40 wagers while I place $10 if my bankroll is $1k.

Usually, when I get to the $5k mark is when I withdraw to lower the bankroll. I treat my bankroll like a secondary savings account where I can withdraw from it if I need the cash for something else. I think it's important to withdraw money from your bankroll because it is possible to lose it all. It's happend to me just twice.

I know a lot of serious players wager 2% of their bankrolls but I feel more comfortable with 1% because I'm able to weather twice the bad luck then those guys.

As for going through a cold spell, I try not to lose myself to my emotions. I can't see how place bets will make you feel better. Your hit % will go up but you will still be losing money. I have a different strategy for place bets altogether so I would never change my win bets to place just for a bad streak.

Being a math geek, I find losing streaks fascinating, especially the bad ones.

PMD

[kenwoodallpromos]

1. Same $ for each type of system.
2-4. If you are losing youneed to stop betting that system uintil you figure out why you are losing- usually not picky enough about type of races for your system.
5. Handicapping has nothing to do with betting- unless you are addicted and have to bet each race you try to handicap. Handicapping is always and only testing your system on paper - betting is betting real $$$ when your handicapping produces a bet with enough % probability of cashing and value when cashed to make a profit.
Handicapping is finding % probability; betting is finding enough profit value.

[JustMissed]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by pmd62ndst
[B]My main play is straight win bets for odds between 5-1 and 18-1. I generally like to price wagers at around 1% of my bankroll. If my bankroll is $4k then I place $40 wagers while I place $10 if my bankroll is $1k.[END QUOTE]

Do you ever play horses going off less than 5-1? If so, do you increase your bet size with the lower odds?


JM

[trying2win]

Originally posted by pmd62ndst

Being a math geek, I find losing streaks fascinating, especially the bad ones.

PMD


PMD,

I wish I could always be that positive about losing streaks LOL!
At times in my experience, I find losing streaks to be somewhat frustrating, discouraging and depressing. However, I never give up on a return to profitability. Seems a lot of horseplayers are ever hopeful of trying to find a better way. We like envisioning ourselves as long-term profitable winners.

I sometimes do more research on why I might have been losing for awhile at a particular track...hmmm...if only I would have added a better percentage for that trainer, if only I would have bet more early speed types etc. Ah! Then after some adjustments, and doing a paper test of 50 bets, you find you WOULDA had 31% winners and a 42.5% ROI.

So you go to bet with REAL MONEY again, only to lose your next 7 bets in-a-row! How come PAPER BETS always seem to work out better than bets with REAL MONEY?

Do any of the above scenarios sound familiar to anyone?

T2W

[pmd62ndst]

JustMissed,

No, I don't increase my bet if the odds are lower then 5-1. That is a serious cut off for me. I pass even if the odds are 9-2.

In fact, the method I have prefers odds of 4-1 or higher but I found that a good majority of my 4-1 wagers placed at 1 mtp end up dropping down to 3-1 or even lower. I found that a 5-1 cutoff ensures a good price.

Here's a breakdown of my wagers this year:


1 mtp odds Final Odds < 4-1 Final Odds =>4-1
6-1 18 195
5-1 48 218
9-2 90 108
4-1 144 86


As you can see, I passed on 428 races in the 9/2 - 4/1 1 mtp range because more then 50% of them fell below the 4/1 final odds mark.

PMD

[JustMissed]

Thanks PMD for your reply. I see what your are doing now.

JM

:)

[Jeff P]

This is related to a discussion on this board about losing streaks from earlier this year. Below is a link to that thread.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?threadid=10444


Myself, I'm primarily a win bettor. I employ a handful of my own spot play methods. Each is different and unique. I keep records of my own performance and the performance of my methods. I review my own records and know from a historical perspective the win rate and average mutuel of each of the methods I am using. I'm also a grinder. My goal is to grind out a profit in the win pool each day. I've adopted a percentage of bankroll approach for my win betting. That percentage varies according to the hit rate of each play type that I use. My higher win rate play types merit a higher percentage of bankroll bet than my lower hit rate play types. That percentage is about 2 percent of bankroll for my high win rate play types and about 7 tenths of 1 percent for my lower hit rate play types.

I believe very strongly in the concept of value. Winning at this game on a consistent basis only becomes possible when regularly repeating the process of getting paid more for a winning bet than its actual worth becomes one of your habits. I posted in an earlier discussion on professional betting habits that I use a divisor to get value from a race rather than specific odds ranges. Generally I divide the field size by 1.5 to get my odds cutoff.

As an aside, I like large fields. My own records indicate the game was easier to beat in the mid nineties than it is now. In my own mind I tend to attribute this to the proliferation of online players all using the same or similar electronic tools. Recently, I've started rethinking this position. I wonder, just how much of an effect do today's smaller field sizes compared to yesteryear's have on the beatability (is that even a word?) of today's game?

I also take great pride in developing my own set of unique ratings for evaluating races. It helps to be a rugged individualist and do a little free thinking. When you start seeing relevant patterns that others can not or won't even bother considering then the battle is two thirds won.

[Skanoochies]

PMD, just wondering where you are making these bets at. I either bet at our local track here in Van. B.C. (local or simulcast) or by phone or internet with HPI out of Woodbine. And I like your theory of not betting till a minute to go but find this litterally impossible. At the track the machines and tellers are always tied up, and the phone and internet seem to cut off wagering when the horses are not that close to entering the gate. Can you make a bet offshore that close to race time? I have missed some huge payoffs by being shut out. (I guess you could say I have been lucky to have not made it in time too.}

Skanoochies.:confused:

[bettheoverlay]

I believe gambling skills are far more valuable than handicapping skills. I'm not sure they can be learned. Race results also seem far more random to me than they do to many handicappers, who pore over all their info in search of some profound insight.

I'm a lousy gambler, although an average capper, and I have learned to stay clear of exotics, where gambling skills are close to 100% of the equation. I usually take a quick run through the PPs at lots of tracks, check off the horses that interest me, mostly ones in good form, and make $20 win bets when the odds seem decent.

I come out marginally ahead this way, sometimes have a great day, and often even have some fun.

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by pmd62ndst
Being a math geek, I find losing streaks fascinating, especially the bad ones.

PMD

hehe, you must be joking :)

Besides this indecent fascination of yours I am right with you. I keep it about 1%. betting exotics like i do, 1% works for me. i haven't withdrew anything--can't think of anything i would rather use the money for than betting on horses--but then again I haven't lost the whole thing yet either.

So, I just keep a steady bet and ride out the streaks. Which I am on a truly crushing bad one right now. But it will end. I ahve a few good ones for this weekend :) Luckily the stunning win streak I kept up through the whole first part of the year has me still sitting fairly comfortably. having been through this bit before I don't let streaks good or bad get to me too much. just do what has to be done and let the chips fall where they may. forcing things is counter to that logic.

I think the betting is as important as the capping.

[pmd62ndst]

Skanoochies: I make 99% of my bets sitting on my butt in front of the computer through my Pinnacle account while watching the tote on my YouBet account.

When I'm at the track (California), it's usually on a Friday night and purely for fun with my buddies so I rarely wait until 1 MTP to wager.

Exactaman: I guess I should've put a smiley or something after declaring my fancy for losing streaks.

But seriously, let's take a mathematical approach. If you're betting on average 7-1 odds, you need to have a win percentage over 12.5%. A lucky streak of 3 wins in a row would happen once every 512 times. But an unlucky streak of the same magnitude would total 48 consecutive losses. Since I make approximately 500 wagers in 3 months, doesn't that mean I can expect to come across a losing streak of 48 races about once every 3 months?

If I bet 2% of my bankroll, then I can expect to lose it once every three months. That's why I bet 1% of the bankroll, because it would require a 100 race losing streak, one of which I've yet to experience. Now THAT would be fascinating!

PMD

[Jeff P]

pmd62ndst,

When you bet a percentage of bankroll, do you adjust your bankroll for purposes of calculating bet size every so often- thus increasing bet size during hot streaks and reducing bet size during losing streaks? For that matter, has anyone out there had any success in growing a small bankroll into a large bankroll using that approach?

[pmd62ndst]

I generally try to keep my bankroll between $5k and $2k.

I also bet 1% based on 1k levels. My bankroll right now is $2300 so I'm betting $20 bets. As soon as I get it to $3k then I'll up it to $30 and so forth. If my bankroll gets to $5k, I withdraw a grand. If my bankroll goes below $1k, I deposit another $1k (if available).

It is very important to withdraw money from your account when it reaches a certain point. If you continue to raise your bets with your bankroll, you will eventually come across a bad luck streak that will wipe you out.

This money management strategy is purely for when I'm betting from the computer in a strict mathematical environment. When I am actually at the track, I'm obviously not using the same strategy because 1% of my wallet bankroll would be under the $2 win bet minimum *laugh*. I want to have fun so I usually bet obscene trifectas while trying to drink a beer a race.

PMD

[kenwoodallpromos]

Interesting this thread is now mainly about losing streaks.