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Stillriledup
07-01-2015, 01:54 PM
Race 2 in the show pool. Caused an over correction on the 4. Large show bets refunded on the 1 at the last second. Went from 18,000 to a final total of 1,879.

Dave Schwartz
07-01-2015, 02:23 PM
This is criminal.

Ruining racing.

Stillriledup
07-01-2015, 02:31 PM
This is criminal.

Ruining racing.

OFF with their heads!!! :D

lamboguy
07-01-2015, 02:54 PM
i have a friend that has a system where he bets on horses in the pick bets that he knows are going to scratched so that he can get the so-called favorite. he has to make his bets early in the morning to insure that he is betting the scratched horse.

the guy is consistently winning with this move. i could never follow in because it doesn't make sense, but he is driving a Mercedes Benz and i drive a 97 Buick and a motor scooter.

Exotic1
07-01-2015, 03:34 PM
i have a friend that has a system where he bets on horses in the pick bets that he knows are going to scratched so that he can get the so-called favorite. he has to make his bets early in the morning to insure that he is betting the scratched horse.

the guy is consistently winning with this move. i could never follow in because it doesn't make sense, but he is driving a Mercedes Benz and i drive a 97 Buick and a motor scooter.

Funny.

Why doesn't he just bet the favorite when it appears - after the scratches and at post time or thereabout?

lamboguy
07-01-2015, 03:49 PM
Funny.

Why doesn't he just bet the favorite when it appears - after the scratches and at post time or thereabout?that is a great question and exactly the reason why he has to bet a scratched horse. he thinks that the after the bell bettors will be betting the horse on the lead and that horse will wind up the favorite and he has an edge.

i can't argue with this because the man is winning playing that way.

Exotic1
07-01-2015, 04:11 PM
that is a great question and exactly the reason why he has to bet a scratched horse. he thinks that the after the bell bettors will be betting the horse on the lead and that horse will wind up the favorite and he has an edge.

i can't argue with this because the man is winning playing that way.

It's still a little funny. Ok, so he expects enough after the bell money to be bet on the lead horse - enough to make it a favorite and he just wants to land on it.

I'm not going to argue if he's winning. In fact, I may employ that strategy. It has to better than spreading in the 6th at Bel and watch Pletcher destroy the field with the favorite.

cj
07-01-2015, 04:14 PM
It has to better than spreading in the 6th at Bel and watch Pletcher destroy the field with the favorite.

That may have been the worst morning line I've ever seen on a horse at a NYRA track.

Stillriledup
07-01-2015, 04:39 PM
Funny.

Why doesn't he just bet the favorite when it appears - after the scratches and at post time or thereabout?

Because sometimes you don't know who the favorite is going to be. Also, you get the most likely winner as determined by the public AFTER they get to see the warmups.

The way you stop all these betting shenanigans is make the favorite the horse with the most money in that specific pool, this way you can announce to the crowd in advance who the favorite is, not sure why you get the win favorite it's a completely different pool it makes no sense.

Dave Schwartz
07-01-2015, 05:16 PM
that is a great question and exactly the reason why he has to bet a scratched horse. he thinks that the after the bell bettors will be betting the horse on the lead and that horse will wind up the favorite and he has an edge.

The strategy is not my cup of tea, but the logic is brilliant.

:ThmbUp:

lamboguy
07-01-2015, 05:40 PM
i've seen plenty in the world of gambling. i can remember the days that the race books in Nevada were booking their horses. back in those days there were a few different rules like you have to name the horse you want in an entry and lose if the other one wins. in daily doubles if you bet a horse in the first race and if it wins or loses and the horse in the second race gets scratched, all you get is a refund not a consolation. often times if the pick in the first half lost, you would see a scratch in the second half. this happened all the time in places like Sportstsman's Park, Bowie, Fair Grounds and the night time tracks in New Jersey.

whenever money is involved, people are always looking for the edge.

JustRalph
07-01-2015, 06:34 PM
The strategy is not my cup of tea, but the logic is brilliant.

:ThmbUp:

I thought about it for a minute, but I can't think of any other way to automatically get the fav every single time without having to tend to the tote right up till post time, OR AFTER.......... :ThmbUp:

Robert Goren
07-01-2015, 06:36 PM
Interesting stuff about the scratch favorite. I don't bet pick bets, but I have often thought that non-"lock" favorites are under bet in pick 4s and maybe in pick 3s. I have never taken the time to check it out, plus I am not sure I could access the data needed to study it even if I wanted to study it.

Cholly
07-01-2015, 06:37 PM
That may have been the worst morning line I've ever seen on a horse at a NYRA track.

maybe Eric (last name slipped my tongue) is on vacation?

foregoforever
07-01-2015, 06:43 PM
that is a great question and exactly the reason why he has to bet a scratched horse. he thinks that the after the bell bettors will be betting the horse on the lead and that horse will wind up the favorite and he has an edge.

I thought you got the post-time favorite. Wouldn't after-the-bell wagers, if they exist, be irrelevant?

DJofSD
07-01-2015, 06:49 PM
Race 2 in the show pool. Caused an over correction on the 4. Large show bets refunded on the 1 at the last second. Went from 18,000 to a final total of 1,879.
Serious question. Is there a way to see, after the fact, the action in the pools which would document this activity? This is not to doubt the story or what was seen but just a question about the ability to reproduce the ebbs and flows within the pools. Are the amounts of the pools recorded throughout the betting period and can they be audited by members of the general public?

lamboguy
07-01-2015, 06:52 PM
[QUOTE=DJofSD]Serious question. Is there a way to see, after the fact, the action in the pools which would document this activity? This is not to doubt the story or what was seen but just a question about the ability to reproduce the ebbs and flows within the pools. Are the amounts of the pools recorded throughout the betting period and can they be audited by members of the general public?[/QUOTE i saw the same thing that he did, but i see it so often now, i don't bother commenting on it.

Stillriledup
07-01-2015, 07:05 PM
Serious question. Is there a way to see, after the fact, the action in the pools which would document this activity? This is not to doubt the story or what was seen but just a question about the ability to reproduce the ebbs and flows within the pools. Are the amounts of the pools recorded throughout the betting period and can they be audited by members of the general public?

I think it's like pulling teeth. If you called a track and requested patterns or something like that, they would probably deny you access.

DJofSD
07-01-2015, 07:24 PM
I think it's like pulling teeth. If you called a track and requested patterns or something like that, they would probably deny you access.
So effectively the answer is no.

OK, similar question: what if you play online poker, can you review hands you've played including all of the betting action for each hand -- not just your bets but of every one's involved in the game?

Stillriledup
07-01-2015, 07:31 PM
So effectively the answer is no.

OK, similar question: what if you play online poker, can you review hands you've played including all of the betting action for each hand -- not just your bets but of every one's involved in the game?

This poker question is a good one for Gus or Dilanesp, I'm not sure.

mickey_arnold
07-01-2015, 07:56 PM
Serious question. Is there a way to see, after the fact, the action in the pools which would document this activity? This is not to doubt the story or what was seen but just a question about the ability to reproduce the ebbs and flows within the pools. Are the amounts of the pools recorded throughout the betting period and can they be audited by members of the general public?

Damn, I know I saw something years ago in an article that showed the amount of money bet in the win, place and show pools at varying intervals prior to post time...Whoever wrote the article was given access to the computer printouts showing flow of money by NYRA...

It was interesting to see it but I can't recall the exact reason why the information was needed, other than it was to provide display the amount at the quantity of money bet at those interval points and give you a precise static view (no flashing of the tote board every minute or so, to distract you ) of the ups and downs of the gross amounts of money and their impact or lack of impact on the tote board odds..

You could look at Bet-downs, Bet-ups, late scratches, coupled entries, the post, post-time flow of money etc. ... Who wrote that article?

Ahhh,.....I think it was Kelso Sturgeon... :eek:

If that man can be honored in no other way for his contribution to the sport, he should be put in the Racing Hall of Names..

Ruffian1
07-01-2015, 08:12 PM
Because sometimes you don't know who the favorite is going to be. Also, you get the most likely winner as determined by the public AFTER they get to see the warmups.

The way you stop all these betting shenanigans is make the favorite the horse with the most money in that specific pool, this way you can announce to the crowd in advance who the favorite is, not sure why you get the win favorite it's a completely different pool it makes no sense.

Wait ! So the "public" watches the warmups ?? Since when? It certainly never occurred when I worked there.

Rise Over Run
07-01-2015, 08:15 PM
maybe Eric (last name slipped my tongue) is on vacation?
He must be. Blewitt said he was making the line for this weeks cards on last Saturdays Talking Horses.

Ruffian1
07-01-2015, 08:15 PM
i have a friend that has a system where he bets on horses in the pick bets that he knows are going to scratched so that he can get the so-called favorite. he has to make his bets early in the morning to insure that he is betting the scratched horse.

the guy is consistently winning with this move. i could never follow in because it doesn't make sense, but he is driving a Mercedes Benz and i drive a 97 Buick and a motor scooter.

Oh my ! The type of car he drives leads someone to think that person is successful at betting? Man, don't fall into that trap.
And he allows the public to bet for him?

Wow.

Ruffian1
07-01-2015, 08:18 PM
Damn, I know I saw something years ago in an article that showed the amount of money bet in the win, place and show pools at varying intervals prior to post time...Whoever wrote the article was given access to the computer printouts showing flow of money by NYRA...

It was interesting to see it but I can't recall the exact reason why the information was needed, other than it was to provide display the amount at the quantity of money bet at those interval points and give you a precise static view (no flashing of the tote board every minute or so, to distract you ) of the ups and downs of the gross amounts of money and their impact or lack of impact on the tote board odds..

You could look at Bet-downs, Bet-ups, late scratches, coupled entries, the post, post-time flow of money etc. ... Who wrote that article?

Ahhh,.....I think it was Kelso Sturgeon... :eek:

If that man can be honored in no other way for his contribution to the sport, he should be put in the Racing Hall of Names..

Good ole Kelso. He was Arnold Iliescu's agent at Penn. Nat. and in Md. for years before turning pro handicapper back in the day.

cj
07-02-2015, 12:02 AM
maybe Eric (last name slipped my tongue) is on vacation?

NYRA line is very good, can't get them all right. This one just surprised me. I have no idea who made it today.

Robert Goren
07-02-2015, 12:06 AM
He is betting pick 3, pick 4, pick 5 and pick 6s. Betting a scratch horse in any leg but the 1st leg is the only sure way of getting the Favorite in the leg.

Seabiscuit@AR
07-02-2015, 01:40 AM
I would have thought any combo with fave plus scratched money on other horses would pay unders as that combo has to carry the money from the scratched horse as well. So if the fave was 2-1 and the scratched horse was 10-1 now the combined weight of money makes the fave under 6-4 odds for that leg of the pick exotic. Looks a sure fire long term losing play if ever I saw one

In fact I know a player who used to use the opposite strategy which makes much more sense. It was for doubles where any money on the late scratching went on the fave. If there was a late scratching at the barriers of a short priced horse in the 1st leg of the double they would pounce and bet combinations in the 1st leg of the double away from the fave knowing the fave combo in the 1st leg of the double was now guaranteed to pay massive unders having to carry the money from 2 short priced horses

przytula
07-02-2015, 10:21 AM
Maybe the answer is to file a class-action lawsuit. Other than the government ordering an investigation (good luck with that), I don't know how else you would be able to get the truth. Of course, even then, you still might not be able to get the truth.

If computers can manipulate the stock market, they sure as hell could manipulate the horse races.

It's amazing to me how bettors, the life blood of the game, are constantly dumped on by racing and treated as second class citizens.

To answer the poker question, every hand you play is saved in a text file on your computer. It's called a hand history and it shows all of the action for the hands you've played in. What you're not allowed to do is see hands on players that you haven't played against. There are companies however that sell other players hands histories.

Exotic1
07-02-2015, 10:34 AM
The strategy is not my cup of tea, but the logic is brilliant.

:ThmbUp:

The player is expecting that the post time favorite - in these instances - will prove correct and of course show a positive return. It is quirky, but he's probably doing better than me. My Mercedes is still in the Showroom.

Exotic1
07-02-2015, 10:40 AM
Because sometimes you don't know who the favorite is going to be. Also, you get the most likely winner as determined by the public AFTER they get to see the warmups. ...

I understand, it's a little quirky. In these instances, I think lambo is saying that the favorite may not be known or could change only too late before the player had a chance to react.

no breathalyzer
07-02-2015, 10:56 AM
i'm not saying i'm a horse whisperer.. but a major part of my betting consists on a horses appearance and warm up pre race, bout a yr a go i started a notebook on how horses on the nyra circuit look on race day and compare my notes to previous starts. At the very least its helped my spot some very bad favorites.
Its amazing what a couple good weeks of the special feed can do for a horse :)