2nd and 3rd Choice Betting Favorites?

[Flysofree]

I know it's somewhat a solid fact that the top choice in the betting (favorite) wins approximately 33% of all races.
Do we have any figures on the clear 2nd choice as to percentage, 3rd choice?

[Track Collector]

From my database of US/Canadian tracks during 2014, and rounding to the nearest whole number:

1st --> 38%
2nd --> 22%
3rd --> 15%

[Flysofree]

Interesting Track Collector... Thanks.... A 38% win seems slightly high nationwide at all US TB tracks, but it could be one of those years I guess.

22% and 15% is what I'm trying to learn more about.

[mickey_arnold]

I know it's somewhat a solid fact that the top choice in the betting (favorite) wins approximately 33% of all races.
Do we have any figures on the clear 2nd choice as to percentage, 3rd choice?


From a large study for which I lost the source, I believe it may have covered several years from 1997-2005 from a variety of tracks.

”Public betting favorites win approximately 33 percent of all races and finish second 53 percent of the time. Second choices win approximately 21 percent of all races and finish second 42 percent of the time. So the top two choices win 54 percent of the races and finish second 74 percent of the time. You might even want to consider the fact that third choices win approximately 14 percent of all races run over the course of a year.”




Here's as study of favorites by field size, that should have some applicability to 2nd and 3rd choices, though at a smaller relative increase or decrease in Win % age compared to favorites....I had a study that covered 2nd and 3rd choices by field size but can't locate it



Conditions of sample

This sample contains the last 5,000 races from our database in each field size category as of December 1st, 2000.

The category "favorite" in our database is based upon the final "viewable" toteboard odds. That is, horses with final odds of 2.1:1 and 2.2:1 would be considered equal since they would both display as "2/1" on the toteboard.

Note that the 4-horse and the 13+ group contain all the races in this field size since 1993 for the tracks we download (10 circuits).

.

Field Sts Pays PCT $NET IV PIV AvPay Odds

4 1,009 466 46.2 1.62 1.85 1.02 3.51 0.83

5 5,400 2,298 42.6 1.72 2.13 1.06 4.05 1.07

6 5,483 2,030 37.0 1.64 2.22 1.01 4.43 1.26

7 5,630 1,951 34.7 1.62 2.42 1.00 4.67 1.39

8 5,743 1,887 32.9 1.66 2.63 1.00 5.04 1.54

9 5,833 1,802 30.9 1.60 2.78 0.98 5.18 1.62

10 5,781 1,648 28.5 1.55 2.85 0.95 5.44 1.77

11 5,704 1,651 28.9 1.62 3.18 0.99 5.61 1.83

12 5,675 1,570 27.7 1.56 3.33 0.97 5.63 1.90

13+ 601 173 28.8 1.68 3.90 1.01 5.85 1.91

[Flysofree]

Nice...Thanks Mickey

[BlueChip@DRF]

So it looks best to bet against the favorite in a field of 12.....

[Dave Schwartz]

Track Collector's data is correct. Mine shows:

38% on fav
21% on 2nd 59% cumulative
15% on 3rd 74% cumulative


The world began changing around 2004 and has continued because of whale activity.

Your data for pre-2005 matches mine.

My database includes every race run in North America since 2001.

[reckless]

I understand that we are talking about the win probabilities of the 2nd and 3rd betting choices but does anyone recall an angle of Mark Cramer centering around boxing the 2nd-3rd choices in the exacta?

I think the simple criteria was this: when the 2nd and 3rd choices each are 7-2 or less, bet the two in a box.

Mark said that the public over bets the favorite in the exacta pool over the 2nd and 3rd choices so there is a built-in overlay advantage boxing just the 2nd and 3rd choices.

I think the < 7-2 win odds requirement is a clue that those other horses will have enough good qualities against the favorite on their own.

The very first time I tried this angle at Parx it won and the exacta came back like $36 bucks!

[mickey_arnold]

I understand that we are talking about the win probabilities of the 2nd and 3rd betting choices but does anyone recall an angle of Mark Cramer centering around boxing the 2nd-3rd choices in the exacta?

I think the simple criteria was this: when the 2nd and 3rd choices each are 7-2 or less, bet the two in a box.

Mark said that the public over bets the favorite in the exacta pool over the 2nd and 3rd choices so there is a built-in overlay advantage boxing just the 2nd and 3rd choices.

I think the < 7-2 win odds requirement is a clue that those other horses will have enough good qualities against the favorite on their own.

The very first time I tried this angle at Parx it won and the exacta came back like $36 bucks!

Trying to locate an article about it in my own archives..Tough search...Don't have any of Marc's books any longer,

[reckless]

Trying to locate an article about it in my own archives..Tough search...Don't have any of Marc's books any longer,

I think it came from an column in Marc's Cramer-Olmstead Report of yester-year.

I am going to the Parx simulcast both today (Thursday) and Saturday. I usually just concentrate on one track only, but I'll give the give the other tracks/races a look-see with 2-3 minutes to post whenever I can. If any races falls into this angle, I'll box the horses for $2 each way.

Of course, I follow up here tonight for the group.

[raybo]

Looking at final odds, and odds rankings has some merit, but the late odds drops (and rises) can and do mess with that a bit, and track to track will differ somewhat. Keep in mind that your experiences will probably be quite different when using last second odds that may change after the gate opens.

[thaskalos]

From a large study for which I lost the source, I believe it may have covered several years from 1997-2005 from a variety of tracks.

”Public betting favorites win approximately 33 percent of all races and finish second 53 percent of the time.

Are you sure you don't mean that the favorite finishes first OR second 53% of the time? The way you have it here...it seems as if the favorite finishes first or second 86% of the time. If that were the case...then betting the favorite to place would make us all rich.

[Light]

Track Collector's data is correct. Mine shows:

38% on fav
21% on 2nd 59% cumulative
15% on 3rd 74% cumulative


The world began changing around 2004 and has continued because of whale activity.

Your data for pre-2005 matches mine.

My database includes every race run in North America since 2001.

Does your database show a better ROI for the favorites since this increase in their win percentage. If not, It would mean the favorites are winning at lower prices despite the increased rate.

[castaway01]

I know it's somewhat a solid fact that the top choice in the betting (favorite) wins approximately 33% of all races.
Do we have any figures on the clear 2nd choice as to percentage, 3rd choice?

It's been higher than 33% for a long time now.

[reckless]

With < 2min at Arl Park, race 1, I boxed the 5-6.

The fave was the #1, at 2-1, the 5 was 3-1, 6 was 5-2.

[reckless]

With < 2min at Arl Park, race 1, I boxed the 5-6.

The fave was the #1, at 2-1, the 5 was 3-1, 6 was 5-2.

The 5 an 6 battled until stretch then weakened to be 3rd and 4th.

The winner was the 2 at 7-2 with the #1 fave at 9-5.

[ultracapper]

Does your database show a better ROI for the favorites since this increase in their win percentage. If not, It would mean the favorites are winning at lower prices despite the increased rate.

I may be wrong, but I'd bet a lot of money that the ROI on winning favorites has dropped appreciably over the past 20 years.

[mickey_arnold]

Are you sure you don't mean that the favorite finishes first OR second 53% of the time? The way you have it here...it seems as if the favorite finishes first or second 86% of the time. If that were the case...then betting the favorite to place would make us all rich.

Not that it makes any difference but that was an exact quote...I should have edited it, anyway...it it just proves that my editing is like my handicapping, i always manage to overlook something. :bang:

[mickey_arnold]

I think it came from an column in Marc's Cramer-Olmstead Report of yester-year.

That was my suspicion...I had 2 or 3 articles composed by Marc from the same publication...I haven't given up hope, since I just found one of those other ones.

[Track Collector]

Does your database show a better ROI for the favorites since this increase in their win percentage. If not, It would mean the favorites are winning at lower prices despite the increased rate.

2015 (Thru June) --> 37.18% at 0.8422 ROI
2014 --> 37.78% at 0.8475 ROI
2013 --> 36.82% at 0.8384 ROI
2012 --> 37.16% at 0.8379 ROI

Dave Schwartz or someone else can perhaps show data for earlier years.

[Light]

Thanks TC. I have one source for 2006 where it was around 34% wins and .82 ROI. So there may be a slight increase in ROI with the higher win %.

So I guess if someone was to make a system for a positive ROI using favorites, they would have to hit at least at a 50% win rate?

[davew]

How about the average number of betting interests the last few years, by year?