PDA

View Full Version : Late DD @Mountaineer~ 6/30


BombsAway Bob
06-30-2015, 03:31 PM
9th @Mountaineer 5.5F F&M Clm5000N3X ~ purse $6,300 ~ 6/30
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fillies+Mares 3YO+Up, Never won Three Races
(WV-Bred races not considered in eligibility)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One New Shooter from Penn National faces:
* two from an N3X off-the-turf allowance,
* two from $10k/N3X claimer here June 14th,
* one going Turf-2-Dirt & 2-turns-2-one,
& to use the theme from year-one of 'Gilligan's Island'
* "And the Rest..."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1) No Exclusions (5/2 ML Fave)- 4YO has tactical speed, rider
has to decide if he want to gun from rail, or settle behind leaders.
Beat #7 by neck two back. Both wins @6F vs. Texas-breds.
2) Amanda In Front (3/1)- Beaten by her entrymate last out
(both off private purchases) in good effort. Trainer 3/176 since 2012,
including the Tiz Bliss win June 14th Amanda was runner-up in.
3) Half the Battle (8/1)- Shown little in two tries at this level,
closer should get positive pace scenario. I'll wait for a wake-up race.
4) Primmensity (10/1)- Irish-bred 4YO goes T-2-D & R-2-S with
a strong rider named. Trainer's 0/13 going T-2-D. Both wins @5.5F.
5) My Pal Ariana (12/1)- 5YO drops first time in 2015 after pair
of overmatched attempts. Speed+Fade been M.O. since 2013 claim.
6) Custom Love (4/1)- Floundered late in off-going, but 4YO
has shown decent early lick in all 4 races since dropping from MSW.
7) Snickering (5/1)- Beyer believers are snickering at thought
the 4YO can win this, since Top Career Beyer is 33, but she has a
steady grinding close that should work well from outside post.
8) B L's Light (10/1)- Both wins wire jobs @SuffolkDowns for
previous owners, breeder Monarch Stables. A Great Value @ML odds.
May get 1st run on target speed if not on lead,& draws good post.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EARLY LOOK:
There's two ways to handicap closer:
1) Assume ML Fave has been facing better out of town,& will
"find her friends" here in local debut, OR
2) Hope rail draw & other early speed makes life difficult for
No Exclusion, & look for a price in Horizontal wagers.
I'll choose the latter, & while i'll include #1 in Pick-5,
will try to beat her in Pick-4 & Late DD.
The 2nd/3rd ML Choices, #2+6, come out of common race that
looks better on PP's than on video replay. Maybe trainer Gerald
Gammon has found Gold with privately purchased #2-Amanda In
Front, & maybe #6-Custom Love is continuing to move forward for
a trainer that's 6/348 ince 2012, but i'll bet against both here at
what i consider to be underlaid ML odds.
#8-BL's Light is outside speed, back at proper level, and ran
a race two back that might win this. Great ML price.
Closers of note are #4 Primmensity (but July 2014-April 2015
layoff raises RED FLAG),& #7-Snickering, too slow on Beyers,
but only neck behind ML fave three back,& gets pace to close into.
I'm THREE DEEP in Pick-5: #1,7,8.
In Pick-4, i'll try to beat ML Fave, go #7,8.
Late DD i'll use #4 as insanity saver,along w/#8. (both 10/1ML)
GOOD LUCK to ALL, & See you at Night School!

BombsAway Bob
06-30-2015, 05:46 PM
8th @Mountaineer: 1Mile (8F) Clm5000N4X ~ purse $6,500 ~ 6/30
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3YO+Up, Non-Winners of Four Races.
(WV-Bred races not considered in eligibility)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One New Face draws Parker to ride, assuring low odds.
ML Fave steps up from N3L Win, while tag drops from $14k to $5k
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1) Rock The Red (4/1 ML)- Private Purchase of 7YO off a big
win. Surprisingly, this is a low % Win angle, but Red is 2/2 locally.
2) Slap Shot (5/1)- Big Rider switch stretching out 440 yards
second off break. Has loved off-going in the past.
3) Bud Matic (10/1)- Good Tri/Super under key, but lifetime
win mark of 3/49 leads me to look elsewhere for on top.
4) Gotcha My Dear (9/2)- 5YO returns from Ohio, hit the board
locally in 6-of-7. Trainer change,same owner. Sits off #2+5 early.
5) Clever Fox (9/5 ML Fave)- Held on in Mud at 3/2, looks like
speed-of-the-speed. Drop in tag not so bad,was claimed for $5k.
6) Budacomo (3/1)- 6YO showed little off 52-day break when
shipped to Delaware @9/5,now comes to WV. Note: 0/8 on off tracks.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EARLY LOOK: Can the hounds catch the Clever Fox?
Stretchout #2-SlapShot really looks like the key player in
the race, as someone needs to keep Fox honest early.
Budacomo has flashed speed at times, but wants fast track.
Rock The Red & Bud Matic look overmatched.
Gotcha My Dear has disappointed at low odds this year,
but ML price & foes makes him look good in this spot.
SLAP SHOT is the best ML price chance,& if wet, Look Out!
I'm not real creative: #'s 2,4,5 in Pick-5, #2,4 Pick-4 & Late DD.
Good Luck to ALL, & see you at Night School!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------