Pick six updste

[teddy]

Hi yall. Just thought Id update on my pick six play. 2014 I ended up on about 35k profit and 2015 I'm up about 15k. But I was up 75,000 before a losing streak in 2014 and was down 18000 this year till I hit today. My lessons have been to only play on carryover days and especially on heavy rain days when races are washed off and or very small fields occur. STILL THE ONLY BET IM PROFITABLE WITH. But $2000 tickets are common place and u have to have big hairy ones to keep going when u hit a bad run.

[thaskalos]

Are you still selling Chinese stuff online, Teddy?

[teddy]

Yeah that's a small part of what I do. Vapor shop! I was first one in my state.

[thaskalos]

Yeah that's a small part of what I do. Vapor shop! I was first one in my state.
Good for you!

It's a lot easier to bet courageously when you have a side income coming in, to smooth out the turbulent waters that all of us occasionally have to swim through. :ThmbUp:

[EMD4ME]

Hi yall. Just thought Id update on my pick six play. 2014 I ended up on about 35k profit and 2015 I'm up about 15k. But I was up 75,000 before a losing streak in 2014 and was down 18000 this year till I hit today. My lessons have been to only play on carryover days and especially on heavy rain days when races are washed off and or very small fields occur. STILL THE ONLY BET IM PROFITABLE WITH. But $2000 tickets are common place and u have to have big hairy ones to keep going when u hit a bad run.

I don't know you but KEEP it up and stay strong during the down times !!!!!

[DeltaLover]

Hi yall. Just thought Id update on my pick six play. 2014 I ended up on about 35k profit and 2015 I'm up about 15k. But I was up 75,000 before a losing streak in 2014 and was down 18000 this year till I hit today. My lessons have been to only play on carryover days and especially on heavy rain days when races are washed off and or very small fields occur. STILL THE ONLY BET IM PROFITABLE WITH. But $2000 tickets are common place and u have to have big hairy ones to keep going when u hit a bad run.

What is the purpose of the huge red board?

Nobody is going to believe you and you also have nothing to gain..

If you really have the need to brag, then go ahead and show us some paychecks or IRS forms..

[Stillriledup]

[/COLOR]

What is the purpose of the huge red board?

Nobody is going to believe you and you also have nothing to gain..

If you really have the need to brag, then go ahead and show us some paychecks or IRS forms..

Seriously?

You cant just be happy for the guy?

[teddy]

Not trying to redboard but believe me I got my rear kicked everywhere but the pick 6. Purpose is to inform that the leverage of big bets against small bets is an edge as far as I can see. Plus the math of the free carryover money changes the game as far as profitability. I bet 700ish yesterday and hit the GP giveaway pick 6 for 30k. Over the last 5 years for some crazy reason the only other bet i do ok in is the pick 3. I would love to leverage the super but there is no carryover advantage. Considered trying it with 7-1 and up in the win spot. My htr software has a good idea on long shots but I have no experience in the bet. None good anyway.

[Dark Horse]

Not trying to redboard but believe me I got my rear kicked everywhere but the pick 6.

That's pretty much a mathematical impossibility. The pick 6 can have a positive playing field, because of carryover, but that doesn't make it easier to pick winners.

If you can't win with the simpler bets, the pick 6 isn't going to solve your problem.

[teddy]

Great advice , i must have heard that a hundredtimes.... the point is that you are picking against the other guys to wager and the pick six allows big players to bully small ones around.... that my friend is an edge.

[EMD4ME]

Great advice , i must have heard that a hundredtimes.... the point is that you are picking against the other guys to wager and the pick six allows big players to bully small ones around.... that my friend is an edge.

You are correct. Many players can try to bet $1000 to win on 500 races over a period of time and lose 15% of bankroll because although they can narrow the race down to 2 contenders, they might bet the higher of 2 all the time and get beat by the chalkier other contender an abnormal amount of time.

In other words they can be very good at picking winners but refuse to dutch or make the wrong decision many times in simple win betting.

However, when those same players leverage their bankroll to "buy" certain sequences and are very good at finding the 2-3 winners that can only win in a certain race(s) AND are able to properly construct tickets (and of course getting the appropriate coverage in other races) their bankroll can do the winning for them via the PICK 6.

[tanner12oz]

How many plays per week or month? Do you play caveman tix or a.b.c's? Average play is 2k?

[SandyW]

[/COLOR]

What is the purpose of the huge red board?

Nobody is going to believe you and you also have nothing to gain..

If you really have the need to brag, then go ahead and show us some paychecks or IRS forms..

How is this red boarding?
All he is telling us is how he is doing, teddy is not giving out any picks.
I lose almost every day, I guess I am red boarding also.

[ReplayRandall]

Hi yall. Just thought Id update on my pick six play. 2014 I ended up on about 35k profit and 2015 I'm up about 15k. But I was up 75,000 before a losing streak in 2014 and was down 18000 this year till I hit today. My lessons have been to only play on carryover days and especially on heavy rain days when races are washed off and or very small fields occur. STILL THE ONLY BET IM PROFITABLE WITH. But $2000 tickets are common place and u have to have big hairy ones to keep going when u hit a bad run.

Teddy, it seems you disappeared since October when, in another thread, you posted the following:

Originally Posted by teddy

I must suck because I was down 60k over last 5 year. Betting a couple hundred day. Switched to bets with payoffs that were way more than the parlay and suddenly I noticed I was making a killing. Its all math and guts. The 50 cent pick 5 is making the poor mans picksix a reality. Play the picksix when carryover is there and you have small fields. It not a bet where you should lose 50 in a row if it as 4 races with 8 horse or less fields and a couple spread races . Ideally a few races will be low odds horses. BEAT THE GAMBLER NOT THE HORSES. QUIT TRYING TO HANDICAP AND SPREAD OUT, KEY OBVIOUS HORSES. HELPS TO KNOW TH TRAINERS AND JOCKEY INTENT.


Here was your next piece of advice:


Originally Posted by teddy

I usually have a couple thousand dollars in there and I had a pic 5 which boosted me up to 15,000 then a couple more pics fives and I was around 20,000 then I played a small fields carryover pick 6 and hit that baby for 25000 and another couple of them for similar numbers of twelve to twenty thousand. The IRS is holding 25,000 bucks for me. And now I have to figure out how to get that back. I really think that to take away from this is that you can play the pick 5 with multiple multiple tickets is what I do and the Pick six only when the odds in your favor or is that it is more like a pic 5 due to field size and you get a huge carry over. I would not play the Pick six at Santa Anita today with $100,000. It just doesn't line up as a safe bet. It's all about putting the advantages to work for you in this game if you're going to have any success. And it's less about the handicapping I know that flies in the face of everyone on here but it's more about how and when you are wagering. If the numbers are in your favor you're going to win. You just have to play long enough to get lucky on a feiced horses in your pic a couple long priced horses in your pic 5.

After reading your own posts, do you think they really seem credible in retrospect?

[sammy the sage]

Teddy, it seems you disappeared since October when, in another thread, you posted the following:



Here was your next piece of advice:



After reading your own posts, do you think they really seem credible in retrospect?

I like what he wrote...jumbled for sure...still :ThmbUp:

[alf1380]

I am pretty sure that there is nobody on the planet better than me at getting 4 of 6 on a pick six.

But those guys that hit do exist, apparently.

[whodoyoulike]

How many races do you usually single?

And, how many of those singles do well?

[1st time lasix]

My play has gravitated toward pick fives and carryover pick sixes. The lower take...the chance for overlay pays...and chasing some dead money in the pools seems very logical. The reality is that it is tough time consuming work and filled with frustration. Although lucrutive at times. The winning tickets nearly always generate an income tax reporting. Either a signer or withholding. I sometimes wonder at tax time if i would be far better off (after tax) just playing to win and playing doubles. The losing streaks can be long....the bad beats are magnified. Not easy...

[Light]

But $2000 tickets are common place

A $2000 ticket would mean you have the luxury of this: 3x3x3x3x3x4 = $1944. That is still a very uncomfortable position to be in with that kind of money on the line, and doubly so if you do it on a regular basis as you say. Many,many, races are just too wide open to be narrowed down to just 3 horses. And you have to be a jack of all trades not a specialist as far as the type of races you are good at, because you don't get to pick and choose your races. If you decide to single or just take 2 horses in one leg so you can spread out in other legs, like the TVG dudes regularly do (and lose), you may be better off putting the $2000 in that race and forget about the Pk6. Because the chances are not good for its completion unless its chalk in which case you may lose money.

The best strategy for the Pk6 is to play when you feel good about it. When you feel pretty strong about your picks in most of the races. I don't play them anymore because they take too much of my energy. When I did, I only put $16 into them, max. Hit a nice one on an $8 ticket. But I was so lucid that day. But it's you, not the pk6 that has to be in the right place at the right time and in the right frame of mind. Not a common occurrence.

[Light]

To illustrate my point of $2000 in a Pk6 vs.$8 in a Pk6.

Who do you think has a better ROI potential:

Handicapper A (Teddy) gets to play 1 Pk6 with a $2000 ticket.

Handicapper B gets to play 250 pk6's with $8 tickets or 125 pk6's with $16 tickets.

Handicapper B would be 1-9 to beat Handicapper A if this experiment were repeated over and over.

[ReplayRandall]

To illustrate my point of $2000 in a Pk6 vs.$8 in a Pk6.

Who do you think has a better ROI potential:

Handicapper A (Teddy) gets to play 1 Pk6 with a $2000 ticket.

Handicapper B gets to play 250 pk6's with $8 tickets or 125 pk6's with $16 tickets.

Handicapper B would be 1-9 to beat Handicapper A if this experiment were repeated over and over.

Handicapper C plays between 8-16 tickets on a weighted GRID for $2000, and easily outperforms the others... :cool:

[AndyC]

To illustrate my point of $2000 in a Pk6 vs.$8 in a Pk6.

Who do you think has a better ROI potential:

Handicapper A (Teddy) gets to play 1 Pk6 with a $2000 ticket.

Handicapper B gets to play 250 pk6's with $8 tickets or 125 pk6's with $16 tickets.

Handicapper B would be 1-9 to beat Handicapper A if this experiment were repeated over and over.


Out of 250 plays with an $8 or $16 ticket what would be your expected win rate? And what would your expected payoff be? Given the extreme unlikelihood that handicapper B would make a large score I would take Handicapper A every time.

[Stillriledup]

To illustrate my point of $2000 in a Pk6 vs.$8 in a Pk6.

Who do you think has a better ROI potential:

Handicapper A (Teddy) gets to play 1 Pk6 with a $2000 ticket.

Handicapper B gets to play 250 pk6's with $8 tickets or 125 pk6's with $16 tickets.

Handicapper B would be 1-9 to beat Handicapper A if this experiment were repeated over and over.

Handicapper B can also hit the pick 6 more than once which a caveman 2k ticket cannot do.

The only advantage a 2k ticket would have over the weighted ones is if it's a sequence where you have 2 "free squares" and you go very deep in some of the other legs. You can go 7 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 1 x 1 and get deep coverage.

Another edge to one huge ticket vs 200 small tickets is that if you hit the pick 6 on the big ticket (the one I listed above) you get about 20 consolation payouts, if you hit on a 16 dollar ticket you're not getting as many.

[ReplayRandall]

I'll repeat myself one last time, as this is the proven way to structure and play all Pick 4-5-6's:

Handicapper C plays between 8-16 multiple tickets on a weighted GRID for between $200-$2000 total, depending on confidence/opinion strength, and easily outperforms all other structured methods...

[AndyC]

I'll repeat myself one last time, as this is the proven way to structure and play all Pick 4-5-6's:

Handicapper C plays between 8-16 multiple tickets on a weighted GRID for between $200-$2000 total, depending on confidence/opinion strength, and easily outperforms all other structured methods...

I am not sure I understand your weighted grid but why would such a grid allow you to hit the P-6 more than other methods?

I use a graded system whereby I grade contenders as A, B, or C. I then build tickets which would require me to have at least 3 A horse winners for me to win the P-6. This effectively reduces the cost of my ticket by eliminating the combinations which are comprised of only marginal contenders.

[whodoyoulike]

I am not sure I understand your weighted grid but why would such a grid allow you to hit the P-6 more than other methods?

I use a graded system whereby I grade contenders as A, B, or C. I then build tickets which would require me to have at least 3 A horse winners for me to win the P-6. This effectively reduces the cost of my ticket by eliminating the combinations which are comprised of only marginal contenders.

I like both Stillriledup and your suggestions the best.

How many races do you normally single?

[AndyC]

I like both Stillriledup and your suggestions the best.

How many races do you normally single?

If I required at least 3 of my A horses to win, I would be singling at least 3 horses but I would be betting many different tickets with a different set of A horses singled.

[thaskalos]

IMO...there is nothing wrong with a "caveman" ticket when you are playing the $2 pick-6. The "creative" approach of playing multiple tickets works best in the less complicated, less expensive bets...where the bettor seeks to have multiple winning tickets when his handicapping opinion proves unusually accurate. The prohibitive cost of the pick-6, and the nature of the wager itself, do not encourage the pursuit of multiple winning tickets.

[Saratoga_Mike]

IMO...there is nothing wrong with a "caveman" ticket when you are playing the $2 pick-6. The "creative" approach of playing multiple tickets works best in the less complicated, less expensive bets...where the bettor seeks to have multiple winning tickets when his handicapping opinion proves unusually accurate. The prohibitive cost of the pick-6, and the nature of the wager itself, do not encourage the pursuit of multiple winning tickets.

Totally disagree - the Crist ABC system is superior to the caveman ticket 95% of the time. I hit several b/c of it, and I'm not much of a handicapper, but my ticket construction is pretty darn good thanks to Mr. Crist.

[thaskalos]

Totally disagree - the Crist ABC system is superior to the caveman ticket 95% of the time. I hit several b/c of it, and I'm not much of a handicapper, but my ticket construction is pretty darn good thanks to Mr. Crist.

How much would you need to invest in the typical pick-6 in order to properly use the "Crist ABC system"?

[thaskalos]

Totally disagree - the Crist ABC system is superior to the caveman ticket 95% of the time. I hit several b/c of it, and I'm not much of a handicapper, but my ticket construction is pretty darn good thanks to Mr. Crist.

I have hit on more than "several" pick-6s...and I only use the caveman method.

[AndyC]

I have hit on more than "several" pick-6s...and I only use the caveman method.

The A-B-C method doesn't necessarily increase your chance of winning, it just puts more of your money where you have your best opinions. In the case where your opinions are more accurate than the general public it will increase your chance of winning.

There is just something about putting a 30-1 angle horse in a caveman ticket where you already have 2 horses covered in the race at the cost of 50% of your existing ticket.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I have hit on more than "several" pick-6s...and I only use the caveman method.

Imagine your success with proper ticket construction!

[thaskalos]

Imagine your success with proper ticket construction!
I tried the other method...and it doesn't work for me. "Proper ticket construction" is in the eye of the beholder. It took me 25 years to realize that my "strong opinions" in horse racing, although more "re-assuring" than my "average" opinions...weren't really as profitable as I thought they were. Now...I no longer hold "strong" and "weak" opinions. I consider myself a "solid" player...and I view all my opinions as "equally solid". It took me too long to discover that, in this game, when something looks too good to be true...it usually is.

[whodoyoulike]

If I required at least 3 of my A horses to win, I would be singling at least 3 horses but I would be betting many different tickets with a different set of A horses singled.

I haven't bet a pick 6 in years but, I'm trying to figure out a strategy for playing it. I understood the singling at least three A horses. I don't understand the:

... but I would be betting many different tickets with a different set of A horses singled.

It sounds like you're not playing your A horses on each ticket e.g., you have four A horses ---- wouldn't you play each ticket with all of your A horses?

[ultracapper]

No, Crist assumes you can't be right all the time, therefore you'll probably miss on one or more of your "A" horses. His approach is mix and match. The heartbreaking caveat of the Crist method is you could theoretically pick the winner in each race on one or more of your tickets, and not hit the P6. I like the caveman simply because of that.

Disclaimer: I've probably spent less than $2,000 on P6 tickets in my entire life. I have used the system for P5s and P4s however. I prefer the "caveman" ticket myself. All this "If the "B" wins this one, and the "A" wins this one, I need the "B" in that one" is too much for my head. Matter of fact, anything beyond W/P has gotten too difficult for me the past few years.

[AndyC]

It sounds like you're not playing your A horses on each ticket e.g., you have four A horses ---- wouldn't you play each ticket with all of your A horses?

Let's say they were in the first 4 races:

#1 A, A, A, A, B, B
#2 A, A, A, B, B, B
#3 B, A, A, A, B, B
#4 A, B, A, A, B, B
#5 A, A, B, A, B, B

There would be times when I have thought that my A was unbeatable and had no B for a race. There are many times when I have 2 horses in a race where I call them my A horses and use them both when my formula calls for an A horse. When using B above it is usually not referring to just 1 horse but a group of horses. C horses can also be used but for illustration purposes I will keep with simple.

[whodoyoulike]

Thanks, I'm unfamiliar with Crist's method(s). I guess I was thinking more in line with Stillriledup's method of 7x7x1x1x1x1.

[castaway01]

Thanks, I'm unfamiliar with Crist's method(s). I guess I was thinking more in line with Stillriledup's method of 7x7x1x1x1x1.

What are the odds you'll have four singles and have to spread seven deep in two other legs---once a decade?

[Stillriledup]

Thanks, I'm unfamiliar with Crist's method(s). I guess I was thinking more in line with Stillriledup's method of 7x7x1x1x1x1.

That's not my method.

[whodoyoulike]

What are the odds you'll have four singles and have to spread seven deep in two other legs---once a decade?

That was just an example, I'm trying to develop a strategy for attacking pick 4, 5 or 6's. I would think you would need to single some number of races within these types of pick races then include possibles in the other races. So in essence, you're making a pick 6 into a pick 3 or 4 etc.


SRU,

Thanks for clearing up that point, my mistake because I was starting to get worried that we were starting to agree.

[therussmeister]

What are the odds you'll have four singles and have to spread seven deep in two other legs---once a decade?
Ask Chris Harn.

[AndyC]

Ask Chris Harn.

Touche!

[Light]

Out of 250 plays with an $8 or $16 ticket what would be your expected win rate? And what would your expected payoff be? Given the extreme unlikelihood that handicapper B would make a large score I would take Handicapper A every time.

My last post was based on my own personal experience, not conjecture. As I said, Handicapper A plays 1 pk6 ticket for $2000. Most likely he will lose.

My lifetime experience in the pk6 was as Handicapper B. Either 250 pk6's @$8 each or 125 pk6's @ $16 each. I mixed and matched. Of significance was that I hit one on an $8 ticket for $50K. There was another on a $16 ticket for $10K.

So do the math. I spent $2000 with a bunch of small pk6's and another guy spends $2000 a pop. I'm $58K ahead of the game in the pk6 department with small tickets. How's that other guy doing? He better be good or he will buckle under that pressure unless he's Donald Trump. Because the secret is when you're hot you're hot and even an $8 or $16 ticket can hit the pk6. And when you're not, even a $2000 ticket is not going to hit the pk6. And that's why ticket size is not the most important factor in hitting pk6's. So I say, stay small. It also keeps you sharper. When you have $2000 to spend in a pk6, you're not as sharp. You get sloppy because you think the greater coverage will overcome the need to "narrow down contenders" that small ticket players must do. Doesn't work that way.

[ReplayRandall]

My last post was based on my own personal experience, not conjecture. As I said, Handicapper A plays 1 pk6 ticket for $2000. Most likely he will lose.

My lifetime experience in the pk6 was as Handicapper B. Either 250 pk6's @$8 each or 125 pk6's @ $16 each. I mixed and matched. Of significance was that I hit one on an $8 ticket for $50K. There was another on a $16 ticket for $10K.

So do the math. I spent $2000 with a bunch of small pk6's and another guy spends $2000 a pop. I'm $58K ahead of the game in the pk6 department with small tickets. How's that other guy doing? He better be good or he will buckle under that pressure unless he's Donald Trump. Because the secret is when you're hot you're hot and even an $8 or $16 ticket can hit the pk6. And when you're not, even a $2000 ticket is not going to hit the pk6. And that's why ticket size is not the most important factor in hitting pk6's. So I say, stay small. It also keeps you sharper. When you have $2000 to spend in a pk6, you're not as sharp. You get sloppy because you think the greater coverage will overcome the need to "narrow down contenders" that small ticket players must do. Doesn't work that way.

Congrats on your Pick-6 hits, but your outcomes were an outlier to the vast preponderance of -ROI results concerning small tickets under $200.......

[thaskalos]

Congrats on your Pick-6 hits, but your outcomes were an outlier to the vast preponderance of -ROI results concerning small tickets under $200.......

Outlier or not...he's got enough money to play the pick-6 for two lifetimes and still remain in the black, no matter what. :)

[ReplayRandall]

Outlier or not...he's got enough money to play the pick-6 for two lifetimes and still remain in the black, no matter what. :)

At the level he's playing at, he'll need two lifetimes before he hits another 50K.. :cool:

[AndyC]

My last post was based on my own personal experience, not conjecture. As I said, Handicapper A plays 1 pk6 ticket for $2000. Most likely he will lose.

My lifetime experience in the pk6 was as Handicapper B. Either 250 pk6's @$8 each or 125 pk6's @ $16 each. I mixed and matched. Of significance was that I hit one on an $8 ticket for $50K. There was another on a $16 ticket for $10K.

So do the math. I spent $2000 with a bunch of small pk6's and another guy spends $2000 a pop. I'm $58K ahead of the game in the pk6 department with small tickets. How's that other guy doing? He better be good or he will buckle under that pressure unless he's Donald Trump. Because the secret is when you're hot you're hot and even an $8 or $16 ticket can hit the pk6. And when you're not, even a $2000 ticket is not going to hit the pk6. And that's why ticket size is not the most important factor in hitting pk6's. So I say, stay small. It also keeps you sharper. When you have $2000 to spend in a pk6, you're not as sharp. You get sloppy because you think the greater coverage will overcome the need to "narrow down contenders" that small ticket players must do. Doesn't work that way.

I have done the math. Congratulations, you won the Lotto.

[AndyC]

Outlier or not...he's got enough money to play the pick-6 for two lifetimes and still remain in the black, no matter what. :)

So I guess you're sold on the $8 and $16 tickets as the way to attack the P-6?

[thaskalos]

So I guess you're sold on the $8 and $16 tickets as the way to attack the P-6?

No. But, as so many here have told me in the past...just because I can't do something, doesn't mean that someone ELSE can't. :)

There are some real GENIUSES out there...so it's probably fair to assume that a few of these geniuses might be in horse racing too. And who's to say that Light isn't one of them?

[1st time lasix]

true story: I once hit a small carryover pick 6 at Hawthorne in the days when it was $1 increment by using two non-favorites i preferred in the first leg..... with four non-favorites in a spread the second leg.... A four singles after that. I was the sole winner of about 12 grand! I was shocked and nearly forgot i had the ticket in my ballcap until i saw them put up the "will pays" before the last. The ticket was only 8 bucks. I wish i would have taken a picture of it. I am sure will never be able to repeat it. It would have only been 16 with a traditional $2 dollar increment. It can be done.,,,,but let me tell ya' I have far more numerous $300-400 tickets where i was "out" after just one or two legs. Tough game. The worst is when you do the ABC Christ method for constructing tickets and you hit a different five for six on two or more different tickets but don't grab the brass ring. It happens. More often my toughest beats is when I rated a horse a marginal B or a C and if i only ranked him higher i would have "had it" with that long shot I had in a different leg. :bang:

[Ocala Mike]

I'm not a P/6 player, preferring vertical bets to horizontal (multi-race) bets in general.

My gut feeling, which I can't prove, is that the only P/6 investments that make any sense at all are VERY small ($8 - $24) or VERY large (5 figures, maybe in a syndicate and always chasing a carryover). Investments in the middle-range, say a few hundred bucks) are destined for long-term ruin.

[elhelmete]

I'm not a P/6 player, preferring vertical bets to horizontal (multi-race) bets in general.

My gut feeling, which I can't prove, is that the only P/6 investments that make any sense at all are VERY small ($8 - $24) or VERY large (5 figures, maybe in a syndicate and always chasing a carryover). Investments in the middle-range, say a few hundred bucks) are destined for long-term ruin.

That's funny, I have the same exact hunch. The guys I know who put together group tickets almost always are $3000 and up.

[Stillriledup]

That's funny, I have the same exact hunch. The guys I know who put together group tickets almost always are $3000 and up.

This is another great reason for smallish tickets that all the pick 6 money that's sent in by people with partners is likely to be more cavemanish in nature just due to the idea that its easier to keep track of. Also look at the twin spires player pool, they don't put in 200 tickets it's usually one or 2 big tickets.

[thaskalos]

I'm not a P/6 player, preferring vertical bets to horizontal (multi-race) bets in general.

My gut feeling, which I can't prove, is that the only P/6 investments that make any sense at all are VERY small ($8 - $24) or VERY large (5 figures, maybe in a syndicate and always chasing a carryover). Investments in the middle-range, say a few hundred bucks) are destined for long-term ruin.
I understand your point about the middle-range pick-6 tickets...but why do the $8 tickets make any sense to you? You believe in trying to catch lightning in a bottle?

[AndyC]

I understand your point about the middle-range pick-6 tickets...but why do the $8 tickets make any sense to you? You believe in trying to catch lightning in a bottle?

If I only had $8 to bet I would play the trifecta where I would only have to be right about 1 race to make a score. In the unlikely event of hitting the P-6 on an $8 ticket, the winner would be happy but looking at minor rewards.

[Poindexter]

What is being ignored in this discussion is the singles. Unless you are a very large player($2000-$3000 plays), you are typically singling 2 horses(or perhaps a single and a double which is usually hard to fit in a budget) in a $2 pick 6 sequence. Now beyond the 2 singles is personal preference. x number of top choices, weighted grid or caveman. The best approach probably depends more on the card than anything else. The math is pretty simple. Are you singling horses with a 50% chance of winning, a 30% chance of winning or swinging for the fences and maybe a 20 % chance or less of of winning. Obviously if you are singling the 50% type horses you are going to have a lot of company if they win and your chances of getting a whole lot of value sort of go out the window. But on the bright side you have a 25% chance of getting both home. If you are singling 30% type horses you only have a 9% chance of getting both home but obviously not everybody at the track is singling the same 2 horses, so you are able to get fairly good value when you hit(assuming they are both paying 9/5 +). Now if you have the guts to single the 20% chance horse(and I assume you are singling them because they look like they are both going to pay above their fair value of 4-1 your chances of getting both home is only 4%, but the sky is the limit if you can get them home. Now on top of the low percentages of hitting the singles, if you go 3 deep in the 4 spreads, the ticket will still cost you $162 and assuming you can connect on these triples at a .65 rate you are looking at a 17.8% chance of getting through the 4 spreads. Now if you are throwing some price horses into your 3 horse spreads, maybe you will only connect at a 58% rate in which case your chance of connecting all 4 spreads will be around 11%.

So if you are focusing on the logical on select days, you are looking at 25% chance of hitting 2 singles x 17.8% chance of hitting the 4 spreads or a 4.45% chance of your $162 ticket hitting. Which means you typically have to play about 22 $162 plays to theoretically hit 1 with a breakeven of $3564. Now the swing for the fence guy will ave only a 4% chance of connecting his singles and 11% chance of getting the 4 spreads or has only a .44 % chance of hitting or about 1/10th the chance of hitting as the logical guy. Now if he hits especially on a carryover day, any price is possible, BUT, his bankroll is about 10 times that of the logical guy and he theoretically will go 227 plays before he hits one. It is all good if you don't mind investing $35k or even much more depending how bad your luck is long term for the shot of the lifetime score, but if you do not have it, your bankroll will disappear really quickly. Now obviously there will be some 5's that pop up now and again to help a bit with the process, but it is a dangerous game for the under capitalized bettor. Obviously most plays will fall in between these two what I would call extremes. But for most it is much smarter to focus on 50 cent pick 4's and pick 5's than $2 pick sixes. You have a lot more flexibility in these pools, especially the pick 4. Now 10 and 20 cent pick sixes are a pretty fun bet. Obviously you have to wait for the mandatory payout, but those are imo the best bet in racing when there is a good carryover and a mandatory payout.

[AndyC]

This is another great reason for smallish tickets that all the pick 6 money that's sent in by people with partners is likely to be more cavemanish in nature just due to the idea that its easier to keep track of. Also look at the twin spires player pool, they don't put in 200 tickets it's usually one or 2 big tickets.


You clearly haven't bet with partners. If you are talking about 1 visit a year players pooling their money, then yes, caveman is the choice. There are many groups of everyday players who play as many combos as they feel is necessary.

[Ocala Mike]

I understand your point about the middle-range pick-6 tickets...but why do the $8 tickets make any sense to you? You believe in trying to catch lightning in a bottle?



Yes; just a throwaway bet. I also, however, share Andy's view that I would rather invest it in tris in a single race.

[ultracapper]

No. But, as so many here have told me in the past...just because I can't do something, doesn't mean that someone ELSE can't. :)

There are some real GENIUSES out there...so it's probably fair to assume that a few of these geniuses might be in horse racing too. And who's to say that Light isn't one of them?

Are you saying you have to be a genius to hit a tight P6 ticket? You're not insinuating that it requires a genius to do anything you can't do, are you?

[Stillriledup]

You clearly haven't bet with partners. If you are talking about 1 visit a year players pooling their money, then yes, caveman is the choice. There are many groups of everyday players who play as many combos as they feel is necessary.

I stand corrected, with more than 1 person (and more than 1 opinion) it might be easier to make more than one big ticket to satisfy differing opinions.

[thaskalos]

Are you saying you have to be a genius to hit a tight P6 ticket? You're not insinuating that it requires a genius to do anything you can't do, are you?
The poster Light said that he is $58K ahead of the game in the pick-6 department, using just small tickets. In my book...that makes him a pick-6 GENIUS. Of course...YOUR opinion may vary.

[pandy]

Congrats on your Pick-6 hits, but your outcomes were an outlier to the vast preponderance of -ROI results concerning small tickets under $200.......


Agree. Light may have hit two pick 6's with $8 to $16 tickets, which is great for him. But for him to say that small wagers are definitely better than $2,000 Pick 6 wagers, I don't know about that. Playing small tickets like that, you could easily lose 1,000 in a row, which would average out to a loss of $12,000. And that's just for starters, it could get worse. Of course you could lose the same amount with six losing $2,000 tickets, but the people who are betting between $2,000 and $3,000 into Pick 6 carryovers can afford it and over the long run they have a better chance of showing a profit in the Pick 6 than a small bettor.

[ultracapper]

Not that anybody asked my opinion, but, what the hey, I'll give it anyway. To hit a P6 on an 8 combo, $16 ticket, you need about 10% handicapping acumen, 20% the unusual fortune that 6 races in consecutive order play to your relative strengths, and 70% the racing gods were looking down on your head that day. No genius involved.

[Light]

but the people who are betting between $2,000 and $3,000 into Pick 6 carryovers can afford it and over the long run they have a better chance of showing a profit in the Pick 6 than a small bettor.

I disagree with that. First of all 99.9% of betters cannot afford a regular investment of $2k-$3k per pk6.

Secondly, whether $8 in a Pk6 is required or $2k in a pk6 is required is based solely on one's own belief system, not in reality. For example if a person says "It's impossible to hit a pk6 with an $8 ticket", that person has set himself up subconsciously to fail at it. If another person "suspends judgement" on one's ability to hit a pk6 with an $8 ticket, there is now an "opening" for that to happen and that "opening" is called ones own "creative process". That "creative process" may mean you "think outside the box".

If you feel that you need 'large tickets" to hit the pk6, you will realize your self fulfilling prophecies and say "see, I would of hit it if I could have put that horse in". But that's hindsight. Would you have? The answer becomes more nebulous when the question is asked because if you really thought you needed that horse that cost you the pk6 you would have put him in. It's an excuse.

If you do play pk6's in earnest for $8 or $16, you cannot "judge" your performance when you lose 50 in a row. It may be that #51 is going to hit. When you introduce "negativity" into the equation of what you are trying to accomplish you are defeating your own purpose.

To me, someone who puts $2000 in a pick six is already saying, "this is too hard,I am scared I will not hit it, I need a bigger ticket". That person is working from fear, not confidence.

The "trick" is to stay open minded, not judge your own performance before or after no matter what the result is, no matter what size ticket you prefer. Because if you can do that, you are getting out of your own way and letting your "creativity" or "genius" (as has been mentioned) to take over.This is the only thing that will separate you from the crowd.

[pandy]

I agree that not too many bettors can afford $2,000 tickets.

You know, I've seen interviews with people who hit a big lottery, or hit a big slot jackpot at the casinos. In most cases, even in something as random as a lottery, the people that win the big ones bought a slew of tickets. Same with slots. The big jackpots are usually won by gamblers who put a ton of money into the slot machines.

Now, of course, occasional gamblers sometimes do get lucky and hit with a small ticket.

[AndyC]

I disagree with that. First of all 99.9% of betters cannot afford a regular investment of $2k-$3k per pk6.

Secondly, whether $8 in a Pk6 is required or $2k in a pk6 is required is based solely on one's own belief system, not in reality. For example if a person says "It's impossible to hit a pk6 with an $8 ticket", that person has set himself up subconsciously to fail at it. If another person "suspends judgement" on one's ability to hit a pk6 with an $8 ticket, there is now an "opening" for that to happen and that "opening" is called ones own "creative process". That "creative process" may mean you "think outside the box".

If you feel that you need 'large tickets" to hit the pk6, you will realize your self fulfilling prophecies and say "see, I would of hit it if I could have put that horse in". But that's hindsight. Would you have? The answer becomes more nebulous when the question is asked because if you really thought you needed that horse that cost you the pk6 you would have put him in. It's an excuse.

If you do play pk6's in earnest for $8 or $16, you cannot "judge" your performance when you lose 50 in a row. It may be that #51 is going to hit. When you introduce "negativity" into the equation of what you are trying to accomplish you are defeating your own purpose.

To me, someone who puts $2000 in a pick six is already saying, "this is too hard,I am scared I will not hit it, I need a bigger ticket". That person is working from fear, not confidence.

The "trick" is to stay open minded, not judge your own performance before or after no matter what the result is, no matter what size ticket you prefer. Because if you can do that, you are getting out of your own way and letting your "creativity" or "genius" (as has been mentioned) to take over.This is the only thing that will separate you from the crowd.

Your personal experience aside, the probability of hitting a large payoff in the P-6 with an $8 or $16 ticket is remote at best. Having an open mind is certainly a good thing to have when trying to outsmart your competitors in horse betting but an open mind won't change probabilities in any kind of way that would make $8 P-6 bets an effective strategy in the long run.

[AndyC]

....If you do play pk6's in earnest for $8 or $16, you cannot "judge" your performance when you lose 50 in a row. It may be that #51 is going to hit. When you introduce "negativity" into the equation of what you are trying to accomplish you are defeating your own purpose......

Let's take negativity out of the equation and insert math. What is your probability of hitting a P-6 on a $8 ticket or a $16 ticket?

[pandy]

An $8 ticket is basically zero probability.

[AndyC]

An $8 ticket is basically zero probability.

If a P-6 ticket was constructed using all favorites and 2nd favorites where 2 horses were used the probability might be something like this:

.33 X .33 X .33 X .33 X .54 X .54 = .00345814563 or about 1 time out of 289 bets.

Certainly not impossible, but that is probably a best case scenario and it uses ALL favorites. An expected payoff from such a bet would surely be less than $2000 and more likely to be less than $1000. Hardly a life changing score.

If you were an open minded bold bettor and used several longshots your hit probability would be reduced substantially.

[Poindexter]

Let's take negativity out of the equation and insert math. What is your probability of hitting a P-6 on a $8 ticket or a $16 ticket?

Since Light is a gifted sort that sees the light on how to construct the winning $8 ticket, we will assume he can hit high percentages and hit 35% winners and maybe 57% on doubles. So since your $8 ticket is 4 singles by 2 doubles typically, about a 1 in 205 shot. Us mere mortals who can only attain 30 % winners and maybe 50% on doubles would be stuck with a 1 in 500 shot. Now if your are seeking value and avoiding the obvious, you might only hit 20% on the singles and 40% on the doubles in which case you would be looking at a 1 in 4000 shot. If you are very selective and play on days where you have 2 50% type singles and can hit the strong percentages(.35 on singles and .57 on doubles) on the other 4 races you can get it down to a 1 in a 105 shot(also some singles are more like 80% types increasing your chances even more). It is not exactly the lottery if you are selective on when to play.

[AndyC]

Since Light is a gifted sort that sees the light on how to construct the winning $8 ticket, we will assume he can hit high percentages and hit 35% winners and maybe 57% on doubles. So since your $8 ticket is 4 singles by 2 doubles typically, about a 1 in 205 shot. Us mere mortals who can only attain 30 % winners and maybe 50% on doubles would be stuck with a 1 in 500 shot. Now if your are seeking value and avoiding the obvious, you might only hit 20% on the singles and 40% on the doubles in which case you would be looking at a 1 in 4000 shot. If you are very selective and play on days where you have 2 50% type singles and can hit the strong percentages(.35 on singles and .57 on doubles) on the other 4 races you can get it down to a 1 in a 105 shot(also some singles are more like 80% types increasing your chances even more). It is not exactly the lottery if you are selective on when to play.


If you have 2 50% type singles you probably won't have to worry about having a signer if you win. To me, a big reason to play the P-6 is to make a score and not just to try and have 6 winners.

[Poindexter]

If a P-6 ticket was constructed using all favorites and 2nd favorites where 2 horses were used the probability might be something like this:

.33 X .33 X .33 X .33 X .54 X .54 = .00345814563 or about 1 time out of 289 bets.

Certainly not impossible, but that is probably a best case scenario and it uses ALL favorites. An expected payoff from such a bet would surely be less than $2000 and more likely to be less than $1000. Hardly a life changing score.

If you were an open minded bold bettor and used several longshots your hit probability would be reduced substantially.

You have to factor in that there are a number of races that your top choice might be as high as 6 or 7-1 and your second choice might be in the double digit odds range(at least for me there are). Part of the selection process is trying to play on days some of this price potential is there. Yes that will bring your probability down some, but the idea is to score not hit a $430 pick six.

Now I am not advocating playing $8 pick sixes, nor would I ever put in less than a $32 ticket, but I certainly do not ridicule those who choose to do so.

[thaskalos]

You have to factor in that there are a number of races that your top choice might be as high as 6 or 7-1 and your second choice might be in the double digit odds range(at least for me there are). Part of the selection process is trying to play on days some of this price potential is there. Yes that will bring your probability down some, but the idea is to score not hit a $430 pick six.

Now I am not advocating playing $8 pick sixes, nor would I ever put in less than a $32 ticket, but I certainly do not ridicule those who choose to do so.

Is anybody RIDICULING anybody here?

[Poindexter]

If you have 2 50% type singles you probably won't have to worry about having a signer if you win. To me, a big reason to play the P-6 is to make a score and not just to try and have 6 winners.

Not always true. I have seen very many pick sixes pay quite a bit on carryover days over the years with 2 50% type singles. Of course they were loaded with prices after that which probably is going to disqualify your $8 ticket unless Light is really seeing the light that day.

Also keep in mind and I am have been as guilty of this over the years as any, in our quest to chase a carryover there is a tendency to latch on the the likeliest winners as singles. Horse 3 in the 4th might be a 50% type and go off at 2/5 while horse 6 in the 8th might be a 50% type and pay 8/5. Now obviously we don't know what most horses in the sequence will pay in advance and sometimes the extra betting just means the horse has a much better chance of winning (1st time starter for instance), but since are investment is basically centered on the singles, players have to be careful not to single the way over bet horses especially on large tickets. They are going to either win and be of very little help or lose and kill the ticket.

[AndyC]

You have to factor in that there are a number of races that your top choice might be as high as 6 or 7-1 and your second choice might be in the double digit odds range(at least for me there are). Part of the selection process is trying to play on days some of this price potential is there. Yes that will bring your probability down some, but the idea is to score not hit a $430 pick six.

Now I am not advocating playing $8 pick sixes, nor would I ever put in less than a $32 ticket, but I certainly do not ridicule those who choose to do so.

No ridicule involved, just a frank discussion about P-6 betting. A person with uncommon success betting $8 and $16 P-6s would more than likely have an opinion about such bets skewed by their results.

Having 6 or 7-1 top picks will bring your probability down substantially.

[AndyC]

Not always true. I have seen very many pick sixes pay quite a bit on carryover days over the years with 2 50% type singles. Of course they were loaded with prices after that which probably is going to disqualify your $8 ticket unless Light is really seeing the light that day.

Also keep in mind and I am have been as guilty of this over the years as any, in our quest to chase a carryover there is a tendency to latch on the the likeliest winners as singles. Horse 3 in the 4th might be a 50% type and go off at 2/5 while horse 6 in the 8th might be a 50% type and pay 8/5. Now obviously we don't know what most horses in the sequence will pay in advance and sometimes the extra betting just means the horse has a much better chance of winning (1st time starter for instance), but since are investment is basically centered on the singles, players have to be careful not to single the way over bet horses especially on large tickets. They are going to either win and be of very little help or lose and kill the ticket.

My reference to a non signer was referring to $8 tickets.

My approach to building a P-6 ticket is to try and create as much coverage as I can per race. So if a 2-5 horse should be 1-1 it will still give me 50% coverage in a race. I determine value in the entirety and not on a race by race basis. I almost never play when there isn't a carryover.

[Poindexter]

Is anybody RIDICULING anybody here?

No but if I was a player that put in $8 pick six tickets on a regular basis, I might feel that some sharp guys out there think that is a big mistake. I do not look at it as a mistake, I look at it as a choice and a choice that on the right day might make somebody a lot of money as it did Light. I just feel it is important that horse players have a decent feel for the numbers so they can make the right choice for themselves. For some tossing in 8 bucks a day on a 1000-1 shot is a non issue, while others may have such a small bankroll that after a year their $8 constant stabs are killing their bankroll.

[thaskalos]

No but if I was a player that put in $8 pick six tickets on a regular basis, I might feel that some sharp guys out there think that is a big mistake. I do not look at it as a mistake, I look at it as a choice and a choice that on the right day might make somebody a lot of money as it did Light. I just feel it is important that horse players have a decent feel for the numbers so they can make the right choice for themselves. For some tossing in 8 bucks a day on a 1000-1 shot is a non issue, while others may have such a small bankroll that after a year their $8 constant stabs are killing their bankroll.

Tossing $8 into a pick-6 isn't a "mistake". But, IMO...considering this to be a sound method of play is INDEED a mistake.

[Light]

An $8 ticket is basically zero probability.

That's what you believe and your subconscious will do everything in its power to make that belief a reality for you.

Since there are many different degrees of difficulty in a pk6, I assume you are referring to pk6's with carryovers which is what I had. Certainly pk6's where its chalk can be had for $8 or $16. Putting $2000 into those would be foolish. But nobody really knows when it will be chalk or bombs.

Is the probability of hitting a pk6 with $2k better than with $8? Mathematically, of course. But that's not the question. The question is, which has the better ROI? To me it not even a debate that the $8 to $16 tickets would have a better ROI over the $2000 tickets.

I mean if it's a cake walk as some here suggest to just put $2000 into pk6's and start earning decent wages from them, then we would all have taken out loans, repaid them with our pk6 winnings and quit our day jobs. So it's obvious those who suggest putting $2k into pk6's as easy street to hitting them, have never tried it.

[pandy]

The people who are well known and who've hit the Pick 6, guys like Steve Crist and Barry Meadow, for instance, they did not play $8 or $16 tickets. I don't see anything wrong with playing it once in a while and putting in a small ticket. I still play the lottery sometimes. But playing a small ticket on a regular basis would seem like lighting a match to your money.

[Light]

Well, a fellow horse player I have known for years hit the Pk6 at SA last December on a $32 ticket for $160K. These kind of hits on low investment tickets with big scores are not anomalies.

[pandy]

Well, a fellow horse player I have known for years hit the Pk6 at SA last December on a $32 ticket for $160K. These kind of hits on low investment tickets with big scores are not anomalies.


They may actually be exactly that, an anomaly. Sure, we'll hear about the few guys that actually hit a big one wit a small ticket but we don't hear about the tens of thousands of losing pick 6 tickets every day.

[AndyC]

That's what you believe and your subconscious will do everything in its power to make that belief a reality for you.

Since there are many different degrees of difficulty in a pk6, I assume you are referring to pk6's with carryovers which is what I had. Certainly pk6's where its chalk can be had for $8 or $16. Putting $2000 into those would be foolish. But nobody really knows when it will be chalk or bombs.

Is the probability of hitting a pk6 with $2k better than with $8? Mathematically, of course. But that's not the question. The question is, which has the better ROI? To me it not even a debate that the $8 to $16 tickets would have a better ROI over the $2000 tickets.

I mean if it's a cake walk as some here suggest to just put $2000 into pk6's and start earning decent wages from them, then we would all have taken out loans, repaid them with our pk6 winnings and quit our day jobs. So it's obvious those who suggest putting $2k into pk6's as easy street to hitting them, have never tried it.

Nobody has claimed that the P-6 is a cake walk at any level of betting.

Most good gamblers are not relying on their subconscious to make gambling decisions for them.

To suggest that $8 to $16 P-6 players would have an ROI advantage over a larger player has no basis in reality or fact. While the jackpot bets get players to stab at longshots in an attempt to be the sole winner, the regular P-6 at $2 a whack creates no such aberrations in the pool. Small tickets tend to mirror other small tickets creating underlays when the logical horses come in. A person betting $2000 is not just 125 times more likely to be sole winner of a pool than a $16 bettor. It is substantially higher than the ratio of money bet.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Well, a fellow horse player I have known for years hit the Pk6 at SA last December on a $32 ticket for $160K. These kind of hits on low investment tickets with big scores are not anomalies.

They are anomalies. Low investment tickets with huge returns are no different than playing and winning the lottery, except there's a lower takeout on the Pick 6.

[pandy]

It figures that I was on here saying how hard it is to hit the Pick 6 and I had it on my selection service and my NY tip sheet (Lawton) that sells at the track. I had three of the winners on top, Sinatra, Psychiatry (Best Bet) and Ice Cutter who was 5-1, and I had longshot Sleeping Giant second and the other two winners were my third choices.

However, the only horse that would have been a clear single for me would have been Psychiatry, who was my Best Bet. So, to hit it I would have had to go 1-3-3-3-3-3 which would have cost $486.00. Of course it paid $131,000 so, not bad.

Just for the fun of it I went to the Del Mar pick 6 calculator and put 5 of the horses in the secondary category and it gave me these plays, which would have saved $150 (total cost of $336). Well, if someone had played it this way, it would have cost $150 less and it would have hit twice! Of course, the payout would have been less since the pool would be split an extra way.

I've been using the DRF Ticketmaker lately, mainly for Pick 3's. So far I'm impressed and it's clearly beat my standard tickets. The Del Mar calculator only has two categories, A picks and B picks, DRF Ticketmaker has A,B, and C's.

Standard Ticket
Race 1: 1, 4, 6
Race 2: 1, 3, 11
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 2, 5, 9
Race 5: 5, 8, 12
Race 6: 1, 2, 11
Cost: $486.00

Spread Tickets
Ticket 1

Race 1: 1
Race 2: 1, 3, 11
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 2, 5
Race 5: 5, 8, 12
Race 6: 1, 2
Cost: $72.00
Ticket 2

Race 1: 4, 6
Race 2: 1, 3, 11
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 2, 5
Race 5: 5, 8, 12
Race 6: 1, 2
Cost: $144.00
Ticket 3

Race 1: 1
Race 2: 3, 11
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 2, 5
Race 5: 5, 8, 12
Race 6: 1, 2
Cost: $48.00
Ticket 4

Race 1: 1
Race 2: 1, 3, 11
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 9
Race 5: 5, 8, 12
Race 6: 1, 2
Cost: $36.00
Ticket 5

Race 1: 1
Race 2: 1, 3, 11
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 2, 5
Race 5: 5, 8, 12
Race 6: 11
Cost: $36.00


Of course the toughest thing about playing the Pick 6 is that you have to hope you have a good day when there's a carryover. I thought today's card looked tough, so I didn't even consider playing it.

[AndyC]

......However, the only horse that would have been a clear single for me would have been Psychiatry, who was my Best Bet. So, to hit it I would have had to go 1-3-3-3-3-3 which would have cost $486.00. Of course it paid $131,000 so, not bad....

I think the 6 only paid $31,000. The last winner, the #1, was put right before the payoff amount in the charts and made it look like $131,000. I think that the $288 - $800 neighborhood is doable for P-6 success IF you have some solid opinions to work around.

[pandy]

Oh, that makes more sense, the price seemed out of whack.

[therussmeister]

They may actually be exactly that, an anomaly. Sure, we'll hear about the few guys that actually hit a big one wit a small ticket but we don't hear about the tens of thousands of losing pick 6 tickets every day.
Of course we hear about the tens of thousand of losing tickets, all we have to do is look at the pools.

[Light]

Most good gamblers are not relying on their subconscious to make gambling decisions for them.


Unfortunately for those gamblers, they don't have a choice. According to scientists who study the mind, 95 percent of our behavior and the decisions we make stem from the subconscious mind, not the conscious mind.

[AndyC]

Unfortunately for those gamblers, they don't have a choice. According to scientists who study the mind, 95 percent of our behavior and the decisions we make stem from the subconscious mind, not the conscious mind.

Please cite a study showing that gambler's make 95% of their gambling decisions from their subconscious mind.

[pandy]

I think the 6 only paid $31,000. The last winner, the #1, was put right before the payoff amount in the charts and made it look like $131,000. I think that the $288 - $800 neighborhood is doable for P-6 success IF you have some solid opinions to work around.


Actually, it did pay $131,000. That's the thing, it's brutally tough to hit but the value is amazing.

[ElKabong]

All this talk about smallish pick6 tickets reminded me of a funny joke Gary West told on his radio show here many years ago...

> A retired handicapper went to the track each day to play the pick 6 on a $2 ticket. it was all he could afford given he was retired, and his wife allowed him $2 a day to gamble.

one day, he hit the first 3 legs on his ticket, all were 7-1 and above odds. He's excited. The fourth leg came in a winner, paying 40-1. Fifth leg, his winner came in at 6-1. Last leg coming up, he needed his horse to come in to collect. His horse is running his hide off neck and neck with a long shot. Photo finish....His horse loses.

He goes home, his wife asks "so honey, how did it go today at the track". He replies "same old story. Lost $2".

[AndyC]

Actually, it did pay $131,000. That's the thing, it's brutally tough to hit but the value is amazing.

I think you are correct. The Equibase charts and the Belmont website both left off the last winning number from the P-6 sequence, the #1. On the Equibase charts the sequence numbers ran right into the payoff numbers with no space in between. I erroneously assumed that the chart was correct.

The value was amazing. Nice job with your selections.

[pandy]

Thank you.

[SandyW]

All this talk about smallish pick6 tickets reminded me of a funny joke Gary West told on his radio show here many years ago...

> A retired handicapper went to the track each day to play the pick 6 on a $2 ticket. it was all he could afford given he was retired, and his wife allowed him $2 a day to gamble.

one day, he hit the first 3 legs on his ticket, all were 7-1 and above odds. He's excited. The fourth leg came in a winner, paying 40-1. Fifth leg, his winner came in at 6-1. Last leg coming up, he needed his horse to come in to collect. His horse is running his hide off neck and neck with a long shot. Photo finish....His horse loses.

He goes home, his wife asks "so honey, how did it go today at the track". He replies "same old story. Lost $2".

He lied to his wife because he collected a nice payoff for hitting 5 out of 6 in the pick 6.

[Light]

Please cite a study showing that gambler's make 95% of their gambling decisions from their subconscious mind.

Look at the robotic consistency of favorites. The same negative ROI year after year and the same basic win %. We are all conditioned and programmed that if the pp of a horse looks like this, it means that.Yes ,everyday there are new decisions to make, but they are all based on your pre existing beliefs stored in your subconscious.

[Light]

Unless someone has something other than an "opinion", the only two people who have real data on their positions is me and Teddy. Teddy said he had a profit of $35k on Pk6's in 2014. Good for him. But what was his ROI? For a whole year playing pk6's he must have played at least 100? That would mean $200,000 in and $235,000 return. Around 17% ROI. Good but not great.

In my career betting pk6's I probably bet 500 pk6's ,500x$8 =$4000. That's the equivalent of 2 of Teddy's plays. So invest $4000 and return was $63,000. (there was other minor ones but this will suffice). An ROI of 1,475%. I rest my case.

[AndyC]

Look at the robotic consistency of favorites. The same negative ROI year after year and the same basic win %. We are all conditioned and programmed that if the pp of a horse looks like this, it means that.Yes ,everyday there are new decisions to make, but they are all based on your pre existing beliefs stored in your subconscious.

If horses are bet to their true probabilities they will always show a negative ROI.

So why does are conditioning and programming mean that we are better off betting $8 versus $2,000? Why can't the programming and conditioning be a positive thing?

[AndyC]

Unless someone has something other than an "opinion", the only two people who have real data on their positions is me and Teddy. Teddy said he had a profit of $35k on Pk6's in 2014. Good for him. But what was his ROI? For a whole year playing pk6's he must have played at least 100? That would mean $200,000 in and $235,000 return. Around 17% ROI. Good but not great.

In my career betting pk6's I probably bet 500 pk6's ,500x$8 =$4000. That's the equivalent of 2 of Teddy's plays. So invest $4000 and return was $63,000. (there was other minor ones but this will suffice). An ROI of 1,475%. I rest my case.

The fact that you have shown a good ROI with an incredibly small sample size doesn't mean you are expressing anything more than an opinion. You are like a person flipping a coin 5 times and having heads come up each time. From that you have concluded that heads should be called every time.

[thaskalos]

In my career betting pk6's I probably bet 500 pk6's ,500x$8 =$4000. That's the equivalent of 2 of Teddy's plays. So invest $4000 and return was $63,000. (there was other minor ones but this will suffice). An ROI of 1,475%. I rest my case.
So...you are killing the pick-6 with those $8 tickets, and yet, you are the exact same guy who went to that "Handicapping Is Random" thread, and declared that horse racing is "random"...and that the game cannot be beaten by a methodical, systematic method.

How "random" can the game be...if you are crushing the game's most elusive wager, with your $8 tickets?

[Saratoga_Mike]

The fact that you have shown a good ROI with an incredibly small sample size doesn't mean you are expressing anything more than an opinion. You are like a person flipping a coin 5 times and having heads come up each time. From that you have concluded that heads should be called every time.

You don't think the nearly 1,500% ROI is sustainable?

[thaskalos]

You don't think the nearly 1,500% ROI is sustainable?
The amazing thing about Light's pick-6 play is that he hasn't been tempted to raise his wager above the $8 level, even though he has banked almost $60K in profits.

That is some discipline and self-control! :ThmbUp:

[AndyC]

You don't think the nearly 1,500% ROI is sustainable?

I could buy 1,200%, but 1,500%?

[Trips]

The amazing thing about Light's pick-6 play is that he hasn't been tempted to raise his wager above the $8 level, even though he has banked almost $60K in profits.

That is some discipline and self-control! :ThmbUp:
His subconscious must be keeping his temptations to raise his wagers in check. :)

[Stillriledup]

So...you are killing the pick-6 with those $8 tickets, and yet, you are the exact same guy who went to that "Handicapping Is Random" thread, and declared that horse racing is "random"...and that the game cannot be beaten by a methodical, systematic method.

How "random" can the game be...if you are crushing the game's most elusive wager, with your $8 tickets?

You would probably have to live to 200 years old while playing 7 days a week in order to hit two pick 6s that pay over 50k on 8 dollar tickets.

[rrpic6]

You would probably have to live to 200 years old while playing 7 days a week in order to hit two pick 6s that pay over 50k on 8 dollar tickets.

Agree 100% with that call. Like someone winning the powerball twice. I spent $16 on a Pick 6 at Lone Star, when they 1st opened up many years ago when they had 12 to 14 horse fields. I hit for about 14K (the whole pool). To this day I know it was about 95% luck and 5 % skill.

RR

[Light]

The fact that you have shown a good ROI with an incredibly small sample size doesn't mean you are expressing anything more than an opinion. You are like a person flipping a coin 5 times and having heads come up each time. From that you have concluded that heads should be called every time.

And you have evidence to the contrary?

[Light]

So...you are killing the pick-6 with those $8 tickets, and yet, you are the exact same guy who went to that "Handicapping Is Random" thread, and declared that horse racing is "random"...and that the game cannot be beaten by a methodical, systematic method.

How "random" can the game be...if you are crushing the game's most elusive wager, with your $8 tickets?

Of course its random, especially the pk6. I do agree with those who call my playing like playing the lotto but so are the $2000 tickets. Would you bet $2000 into the lotto? Of course not. That's why I advocate small tickets in the pk6 unless you are a fool.

[Light]

The amazing thing about Light's pick-6 play is that he hasn't been tempted to raise his wager above the $8 level, even though he has banked almost $60K in profits.

That is some discipline and self-control! :ThmbUp:

A little background. I hit that big Pk6 in 1991. And as I mentioned I guess I played around 500 pk6's in my lifetime and yes they were $8 to $16. I haven't played pk6's in the last couple of years, even when guys have asked me to go in with them on big carryover days. Why? Because as I mentioned B4 they take up too much of my energy now. In 1991, like many players back then, I was very enthusiastic and would read the form several hours before heading out to the track. I don't have the energy or enthusiasm today for that. I prefer it simpler and handicap on the fly in this internet age. Back in 1991 there was no internet.

[Light]

You would probably have to live to 200 years old while playing 7 days a week in order to hit two pick 6s that pay over 50k on 8 dollar tickets.

Don't forget there was a guy in 2003 who hit the BC pk6 for $4.5 Million on an $8 ticket.

As I mentioned to Thask, I don't have the energy or enthusiasm anymore to study a pk6 for several hours and then play it. But I see no reason why someone who does have the energy and enthusiasm today cannot do as well or better than I did with small tickets. Like the stock market, a handicapper will have highs and lows and all you need is that one day where you're on fire (and it will happen) and you're set.

[thaskalos]

Of course its random, especially the pk6. I do agree with those who call my playing like playing the lotto but so are the $2000 tickets. Would you bet $2000 into the lotto? Of course not. That's why I advocate small tickets in the pk6 unless you are a fool.

Here you say that horse racing is random...and that you playing the pick-6 is like playing the lotto. But in your most recent post to SRU, you suggested that you no longer have the enthusiasm for the game that you once had, and you no longer feel like spending hours with the racing form...but that a player who HAS the enthusiasm that you once had should be able to duplicate, or even surpass, your own pick-6 results.

So...I ask:

If horse racing is really "random" as you say, and playing the pick-6 is like playing the lotto...then what good does it do to spend hours with the racing form...and how can the "enthusiastic" player of today duplicate or surpass your results?

[Light]

What is random is you, as well as the external results. We are psychologically in a state of flux due to so many factors. They all affect our ability to handicap for better or worse. And on the other side you have the animals and jockeys going through their own trivial changes and challenges. So with all these factors there certainly is randomness.

There is randomness in everything. For example your own birth with the millions of different sperm that could have reached the egg. A different sperm and you would not be the you that you are now. But despite this randomness, the you that you are now seems to have prevailed and seems to have been meant to be. How is that? Did you win the "lottery"? I don't think so. In this case, there seems to have been an intention and will beyond our perception. I have no proof of that, only a sense of it.

Likewise, if someone has that drive and intention and will, they can overcome the randomness of playing a pk6. They may have to play for years in the case of the pk6 before they hit a nice one, but they too will prevail with perseverance. (Yes I do find horse racing somehow parallel to spirituality, requiring similar virtues such as patience and discipline).

[traynor]

Fortunately, two topics on which I have discovered comment is pointless are spirituality and recreational drug use. That "95% subconscious" comment was tempting, but I have a pressing engagement with my computer to re-factor a data mining algorithm. Carry on, folks. I enjoy reading the comments.

[ultracapper]

What's your "R-D" of choice?

[traynor]

What's your "R-D" of choice?

None of the above. Been there. Done that. Realized way back (as did many others) that it is a dead-end street. I prefer Castaneda's perspective on such. Specifically, there is no purpose (or usefulness) beyond what Huxley referred to as awareness of the "doors of perception."

[Saratoga_Mike]

There is randomness in everything. For example your own birth with the millions of different sperm that could have reached the egg. A different sperm and you would not be the you that you are now. But despite this randomness, the you that you are now seems to have prevailed and seems to have been meant to be. How is that? 1) Did you win the "lottery"? I don't think so. In this case, there seems to have been an intention and will beyond our perception. I have no proof of that, only a sense of it.

Likewise, 2) if someone has that drive and intention and will, they can overcome the randomness of playing a pk6. They may have to play for years in the case of the pk6 before they hit a nice one, but they too will prevail with perseverance. (Yes I do find horse racing somehow parallel to spirituality, requiring similar virtues such as patience and discipline).


1) As presented, yes.

2) If you're saying confidence is a key to winning, I agree.

[thaskalos]

But Light said that playing the pick-6 was similar to playing the lotto. Can I overcome the randomness of the lotto through "confidence, drive and will"?

[Saratoga_Mike]

But Light said that playing the pick-6 was similar to playing the lotto. Can I overcome the randomness of the lotto through "confidence, drive and will"?

You take everything so literally. :)

[AndyC]

2) If you're saying confidence is a key to winning, I agree.


I have seen a lot of confident losers betting horses. Competence is what makes you a winner. Confidence borne out of success due to competence is a byproduct and not the essential ingredient.

[traynor]

I think some may be confusing "self-confidence" with "delusion." Self-confidence may improve one's personal performance in some limited area. It does absolutely nothing to alter external reality.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I think some may be confusing "self-confidence" with "delusion." Self-confidence may improve one's personal performance in some limited area. It does absolutely nothing to alter external reality.

That captures my point well.

[thespaah]

[/COLOR]

What is the purpose of the huge red board?

Nobody is going to believe you and you also have nothing to gain..

If you really have the need to brag, then go ahead and show us some paychecks or IRS forms..
UGH........ :mad:
Why the stick in the mud?.....The guy isn't doing anything to anyone. He's just telling his story.
Is it your contention that mentioning past bets is only permissible if one LOSES?....

[Kash$]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CKPMUW8UMAAj8Zc.jpg:large

Anyone on this thread hit this pick today?

[castaway01]

Score one for the caveman ticket.

[Kash$]

Score one for the caveman ticket.

Castaway can you further explain the caveman ticket?Thanks

[pandy]

caveman ticket just means nothing fancy, like the DRF Ticketmaker where you categorize your horses into A, B, C levels...

With Caveman, you just pick your horses and play all combinations. Which is what most people do.

[Kash$]

caveman ticket just means nothing fancy, like the DRF Ticketmaker where you categorize your horses into A, B, C levels...

With Caveman, you just pick your horses and play all combinations. Which is what most people do.


Thanks Pandy which do you preferred?

[thaskalos]

Score one for the caveman ticket.
Let's see how long it will be until a Crist-method ticket comes along to even the score.

[ultracapper]

How do we know that wasn't a Crist-method ticket? That could have been one of 7 tickets the guy had.

[thaskalos]

How do we know that wasn't a Crist-method ticket? That could have been one of 7 tickets the guy had.
Don't the Crist-method tickets have a single somewhere in the sequence?

[ultracapper]

Could be. I would guess that's probably right.

[ultracapper]

I fail to hide my ignorance concerning the subject. I have the general idea down, but have never really bothered to even do the most introductory investigation of his approach. I am happy picking one winner in a row. The challenge of picking 6 in a row is better left to others.

[pandy]

Thanks Pandy which do you preferred?


In my opinion, the DRF Ticketmaker, or Steve Crist or Barry Meadow style, whatever you want to call it, is much better for Pick 3's and Pick 4's because it will not only cut down the cost of the ticket but it also hedges, so sometimes you'll have more money on the winning ticket. I use it for these types of bets.

In the Pick 6, I'm not sure. For the average player, it will save you money over the long run because it cuts down the cost of the ticket. However, you could have all the right horses and miss a monster payoff. And with Pick 6 wagers, one monster payoff can make up for a lot of losers. Basically, if you're a big bettor, you don't need it for the Pick 6, but for a small better who wants to get involved it probably makes sense.