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barn32
06-28-2015, 07:58 PM
Apparently this has something to do with Greece...well everything to do with Greece. I'm short everything, because I've been a big bear for a while now, but my M3 is probably in trouble.

The ES has bounced 10 points off it's lows.

badcompany
06-28-2015, 08:45 PM
Greek banks are closed for the next week. ATMs not working.

Market is probably gonna test the 208 Support level. Until it breaks, the current degree trend is still up. Although it doesn't seem that way because the trend has been so grinding.

barn32
06-28-2015, 09:14 PM
I've been nervous for a while now. And when I'm nervous I'm either flat or positioning myself to the downside. Markets don't crash up.

That being said, is this an overreaction? I'm sure it is. We've all known it was coming for a while now. Something had to give.

Either way I don't see that much more upside to the bull market. The markets just haven't been behaving in a bullish pattern. Even with all of the new highs we've recently made I'm still nervous.

I think a correction would be healthy for things all the way around and help to calm my nerves.

But if I'm wrong, I'm nimble. I can switch gears if I have to.

DJofSD
06-29-2015, 12:16 AM
I believe the ATM's are limiting withdrawals of 60 Euros a day.

PaceAdvantage
06-29-2015, 12:17 PM
VIX is up 3 points at the moment...days like these affirm my faith in the fact that the market will eventually do the right thing...

I have noted on this board numerous times what I deemed some pretty serious selling every time the market hit a high during the past 4-6 months...is it possible that the "big boys" were that obvious in their distribution...I guess we'll find out soon.

If so, I can't believe the market took this long to turn...nobody learns I guess.

Of course, the joke could be on me...

PaceAdvantage
06-29-2015, 03:28 PM
OK, I'll say it...the VIX finally broke out today... :lol:

It's been so range-bound since March...trading between 12.5 and 15.5...

This is looking more and more like something real...not just some elaborate head-fake based on fake Greece concerns...

badcompany
06-29-2015, 06:25 PM
OK, I'll say it...the VIX finally broke out today... :lol:

It's been so range-bound since March...trading between 12.5 and 15.5...

This is looking more and more like something real...not just some elaborate head-fake based on fake Greece concerns...

I wouldn't go that far, yet. We're basically retesting the March-April lows and the 200sma, but we're not even 5% off highs and we haven't even retraced .618 of the Feb rally. If we go to 1980, my concern level will rise. Until then, it's just another pullback.

reckless
06-29-2015, 07:47 PM
I picked up some LAZ, VIAB and MSFT this afternoon adding to very long-term positions. Hopefully, in three months (or even three days) I won't regret doing this today :).

Hoofless_Wonder
06-30-2015, 01:35 AM
I see a chance to go long here late this week, if one wants to take a short term gamble on the Greek referendum. As long as the S&P stays above 2030 or so, I could see a nice bounce here that may keep the markets a bit higher for a month or so. Obviously a YES vote Sunday adds a small amount of fuel to the rally.

But if the S&P breaks below 2030 and shows weakness, the TOP may truly be in, and then it's hard to say when and where the selling stops....

reckless
06-30-2015, 08:21 AM
I see a chance to go long here late this week, if one wants to take a short term gamble on the Greek referendum. As long as the S&P stays above 2030 or so, I could see a nice bounce here that may keep the markets a bit higher for a month or so. Obviously a YES vote Sunday adds a small amount of fuel to the rally.

But if the S&P breaks below 2030 and shows weakness, the TOP may truly be in, and then it's hard to say when and where the selling stops....

I am viewing all this misguided attention to the chaos in Greece as a buying opportunity.

Greece is an insignificant little leaf in the world's financial forest.

But the knuckleheads in the financial media fall all over themselves when they see a crisis --real or perceived-- with the day traders and the short-termers buying the bait and bailing out in some cases.

I won't comment on the charts because I don't use them nor am I smart enough to understand it with any sophistication.

badcompany
06-30-2015, 08:46 AM
I see a chance to go long here late this week, if one wants to take a short term gamble on the Greek referendum. As long as the S&P stays above 2030 or so, I could see a nice bounce here that may keep the markets a bit higher for a month or so. Obviously a YES vote Sunday adds a small amount of fuel to the rally.

But if the S&P breaks below 2030 and shows weakness, the TOP may truly be in, and then it's hard to say when and where the selling stops....

Look at the chart I posted. From mid-December to the beginning of Feb, there's a quadruple bottom. That's a lot of support. If the market hits that level, there should be a significant amount of long term buying coming in. If it breaks through, look out below!

PaceAdvantage
06-30-2015, 01:48 PM
I am viewing all this misguided attention to the chaos in Greece as a buying opportunity.

Greece is an insignificant little leaf in the world's financial forest.

But the knuckleheads in the financial media fall all over themselves when they see a crisis --real or perceived-- with the day traders and the short-termers buying the bait and bailing out in some cases.

I won't comment on the charts because I don't use them nor am I smart enough to understand it with any sophistication.I see a market that hasn't had a serious correction in God knows how long.

I see a market that always seems to sell off after approaching recent highs...always seems to be a tail on the top of the candlestick on days when it has approached or set a new high...that's been going on for months...and the market has been range-bound pretty much for months. Yes, it's crept higher, but not by much.

I see the last few months as the big boys taking profits...selling the highs...

It won't take much to spark that correction that hasn't been seen for years...unless you want to call October 2014 a major correction...I would tread very lightly here.

barn32
06-30-2015, 02:07 PM
"I'm short, I'm short, I'm too ****ing short!

PaceAdvantage
06-30-2015, 02:53 PM
Well, you're in trouble now..massive rally now taking place...all is well...crisis over... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Who are all these people buying? Suddenly, everything is ok with the world? :lol: :lol:

Doesn't really affect me...I've been mired in nothingness all day...down or up...still holding onto my M3 for July...time I post a screenshot of it...

PaceAdvantage
06-30-2015, 03:17 PM
Buy buy buy!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

barn32
06-30-2015, 04:04 PM
Hey! I thought we were having a rally! :(

PaceAdvantage
06-30-2015, 04:17 PM
Yeah...you know how fickle the market can be... :lol: :lol: :lol:

Hoofless_Wonder
07-01-2015, 04:11 AM
I am viewing all this misguided attention to the chaos in Greece as a buying opportunity.

Greece is an insignificant little leaf in the world's financial forest.

But the knuckleheads in the financial media fall all over themselves when they see a crisis --real or perceived-- with the day traders and the short-termers buying the bait and bailing out in some cases.

I won't comment on the charts because I don't use them nor am I smart enough to understand it with any sophistication.

Greece is small in terms of the overall numbers. The precedent it sets, if Greece defaults and tells the EU to bugger off, could be the two inch snowball at the top of the mountain.

As for the charts, news trumps the technicals, and one has to wonder after 7 years of serious money pumping behind the scenes how that will play out. Technical analysis seems to work fine on the "low news" days, but not so much when a crisis comes along - real or imagined.

Hoofless_Wonder
07-01-2015, 04:18 AM
Look at the chart I posted. From mid-December to the beginning of Feb, there's a quadruple bottom. That's a lot of support. If the market hits that level, there should be a significant amount of long term buying coming in. If it breaks through, look out below!

I'm on the road this week, and don't have access to my charts on my home PC, but the medium term (3 mos) level that seems important on the S&P is around the 2030 or 2035 area. I agree that 1980 looks like a nice firm level of support, and when we get there, it may be a long play.

But if a crisis begins, that of course will trump all the technical levels, especially if the margin calls come in and leverage unwinds. Some day the party will end, and we're already seeing the longer term rates in the bond market go up. The Fed can't control that forever.

How quickly we punch through these levels on the way down will help us get a handle on the level of panic - I'm not much of a believer of the VIX as an accurate gauge....

PaceAdvantage
07-01-2015, 11:06 AM
We are testing former support, now tepid resistance at 2080...this should be an interesting area...

Yesterday seemed like a fairly weak day, so I'm kind of surprised we gapped and ran up today...this whole Greece thing just doesn't seem that important ...after all, it's been in the news for what, the better part of a year+?

All of a sudden, it's important again...seems like an excuse to me...

But what do I know?

ReplayRandall
07-01-2015, 11:33 AM
We are testing former support, now tepid resistance at 2080...this should be an interesting area...

Yesterday seemed like a fairly weak day, so I'm kind of surprised we gapped and ran up today...this whole Greece thing just doesn't seem that important ...after all, it's been in the news for what, the better part of a year+?

All of a sudden, it's important again...seems like an excuse to me...

But what do I know?

I agree, it is an excuse for what the market is trying to do---Full Correction. IMO, I'm convinced there will be two small rate hikes before the end of this year. The market will finally turn Bear and correct to the following levels:

DOW--Will fall below 16K before stabilizing, only to test a new low between 15,000- 15,250

NASDAQ--Will fall below 4400 before stabilizing, only to test a new low between 4000- 4050

S&P 500--Will fall below 1900 before stabilizing, only to test a new low between 1800- 1825

Of course, any major homeland crisis or further economic unraveling in Europe and China, and we may plunge into a very deep worldwide recession/depression......Monitor all precious metals on a daily basis for a break-out, be liquid and have cash at the ready to buy physically, IMO.

PaceAdvantage
07-01-2015, 11:37 AM
I just can't see why anyone would have been long going into this year...there is so much more room to the downside and so many catalysts to the downside as opposed to the upside. Plus we've been in an unstoppable bull market for what seems like forever.

I know the market can go against one's rational opinion far longer than most have the capital to support, but really...at some point, common sense has to kick in on a grand scale.

There was definitely something to all those long tails up top every time we approached a new high in 2015...the big boys were bailing out every single time in my opinion.

But what do I know? I still have a day job... :lol:

PaceAdvantage
07-01-2015, 01:50 PM
We are testing former support, now tepid resistance at 2080...this should be an interesting area...

Yesterday seemed like a fairly weak day, so I'm kind of surprised we gapped and ran up today...this whole Greece thing just doesn't seem that important ...after all, it's been in the news for what, the better part of a year+?

All of a sudden, it's important again...seems like an excuse to me...

But what do I know?Looks like 2080 is now resistance for the time being.

badcompany
07-01-2015, 06:20 PM
Getting lost in the shuffle was Oil which dropped over 4% and broke through downside support.

The next week or two could be interesting as there isn't a whole lot of support in the vicinity.

badcompany
07-01-2015, 07:19 PM
I just can't see why anyone would have been long going into this year...there is so much more room to the downside and so many catalysts to the downside as opposed to the upside. Plus we've been in an unstoppable bull market for what seems like forever.

I know the market can go against one's rational opinion far longer than most have the capital to support, but really...at some point, common sense has to kick in on a grand scale.

There was definitely something to all those long tails up top every time we approached a new high in 2015...the big boys were bailing out every single time in my opinion.

But what do I know? I still have a day job... :lol:


The market isn't a monolith. Just because the DOW is flat doesn't mean every stock is flat:

barn32
07-01-2015, 07:27 PM
DOW--Will fall below 16K before stabilizing, only to test a new low between 15,000- 15,250

NASDAQ--Will fall below 4400 before stabilizing, only to test a new low between 4000- 4050

S&P 500--Will fall below 1900 before stabilizing, only to test a new low between 1800- 1825

Of course, any major homeland crisis or further economic unraveling in Europe and China, and we may plunge into a very deep worldwide recession/depression......Monitor all precious metals on a daily basis for a break-out, be liquid and have cash at the ready to buy physically, IMO.Well, I was a bear...now it looks like I'm going to have to get long again.

ReplayRandall
07-01-2015, 07:41 PM
Well, I was a bear...now it looks like I'm going to have to get long again.

Funny stuff Barnyard.......You go long Huckleberry, I like your money in MY pocket.

Hoofless_Wonder
07-04-2015, 10:25 PM
Getting lost in the shuffle was Oil which dropped over 4% and broke through downside support.

The next week or two could be interesting as there isn't a whole lot of support in the vicinity.

Also getting a bit lost in the shuffle is China. Down 29% from June 12th.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-04/china-stock-brokers-set-up-19-billion-fund-to-stem-market-rout

Unlike Greece, that's a big hit.

barn32
07-05-2015, 07:51 PM
Futures open down 34. Here we go again.

Tor Ekman
07-05-2015, 07:53 PM
Buying opportunity, be bold when others run scared

Hoofless_Wonder
07-05-2015, 08:52 PM
I've got a buy order in to go long at 2038.25, but I doubt it will fill.

Man, that's quite the gap to fill......

I was thinking of going long if the futures dipped down this low last week prior to the Greek referendum, thinking the vote would be yes. Dodged a bullet there....

badcompany
07-05-2015, 09:05 PM
Buying opportunity, be bold when others run scared

I'm fully invested, but 2050 does look like a strong support level for the S&P in an already oversold market.

ReplayRandall
07-09-2015, 01:03 AM
The market isn't a monolith. Just because the DOW is flat doesn't mean every stock is flat:

With one of the lowest volume totals of the year, The DOW's 30 components ALL dropped today......July and August looking mighty bleak, historically speaking, and with chaos bubbling in China and the Eurozone......NYSE, WSJ and United Air all with "glitches"? Hmmm......I wonder what will happen next?.. :eek:

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) -DJI  Watchlist

17,515.42 Down 261.49(1.47%) 4:42PM EDT

Adj Close*

Jul 8, 2015 Volume- 69,830,000 Close-17,515.42

AAPL Apple Inc. 122.57 4:00PM EDT Down 3.12 (2.48%)
AXP American Express Company 75.93 4:01PM EDT Down 1.62 (2.09%)
BA The Boeing Company 141.92 4:01PM EDT Down 1.23 (0.86%)
CAT Caterpillar Inc. 82.27 4:00PM EDT Down 1.72 (2.05%)
CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. 26.99 4:00PM EDT Down 0.37 (1.35%)
CVX Chevron Corporation 93.56 4:01PM EDT Down 1.71 (1.79%)
DD E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company 58.16 4:00PM EDT Down 0.94 (1.59%)
DIS The Walt Disney Company 115.19 4:01PM EDT Down 1.91 (1.63%)
GE General Electric Company 25.89 4:01PM EDT Down 0.58 (2.19%)
GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. 204.06 4:00PM EDT Down 4.15 (1.99%)
HD The Home Depot, Inc. 111.00 4:00PM EDT Down 1.40 (1.25%)
IBM International Business Machines Corporation 163.16 4:00PM EDT Down 1.84 (1.12%)
INTC Intel Corporation 29.50 4:00PM EDT Down 0.40 (1.34%)
JNJ Johnson & Johnson 97.77 4:02PM EDT Down 1.15 (1.16%)
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. 65.43 4:00PM EDT Down 1.37 (2.05%)
KO The Coca-Cola Company 39.86 4:02PM EDT Down 0.39 (0.97%)
MCD McDonald's Corp. 95.84 4:00PM EDT Down 0.84 (0.87%)
MMM 3M Company 152.71 4:02PM EDT Down 2.72 (1.75%)
MRK Merck & Co. Inc. 57.35 4:02PM EDT Down 0.64 (1.10%)
MSFT Microsoft Corporation 44.24 4:00PM EDT Down 0.06 (0.14%)
NKE NIKE, Inc. 109.27 4:01PM EDT Down 2.02 (1.82%)
PFE Pfizer Inc. 33.45 4:00PM EDT Down 0.28 (0.83%)
PG The Procter & Gamble Company 80.99 4:02PM EDT Down 0.73 (0.89%)
TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. 98.76 4:00PM EDT Down 1.27 (1.27%)
UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated 118.78 4:02PM EDT Down 1.92 (1.59%)
UTX United Technologies Corporation 108.67 4:03PM EDT Down 1.42 (1.29%)
V Visa Inc. 66.73 4:01PM EDT Down 1.04 (1.53%)
VZ Verizon Communications Inc. 46.58 4:00PM EDT Down 0.12 (0.26%)
WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc. 73.06 4:02PM EDT Down 0.73 (0.99%)
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation 81.97 4:01PM EDT Down 0.90 (1.09%)

badcompany
07-09-2015, 07:25 AM
On a one day broad based sell off almost all stocks can drop, but, during a significant period of time, you'll see a lot of disparity.

ReplayRandall
08-25-2015, 12:29 PM
I agree, it is an excuse for what the market is trying to do---Full Correction. IMO, I'm convinced there will be two small rate hikes before the end of this year. The market will finally turn Bear and correct to the following levels:

DOW--Will fall below 16K before stabilizing, only to test a new low between 15,000- 15,250

NASDAQ--Will fall below 4400 before stabilizing, only to test a new low between 4000- 4050

S&P 500--Will fall below 1900 before stabilizing, only to test a new low between 1800- 1825

Of course, any major homeland crisis or further economic unraveling in Europe and China, and we may plunge into a very deep worldwide recession/depression......Monitor all precious metals on a daily basis for a break-out, be liquid and have cash at the ready to buy physically, IMO.

Well, today the market is stabilizing, but watch out for the next drop, it might go lower than I predicted....

ReplayRandall
08-25-2015, 05:08 PM
Well, today the market is stabilizing, but watch out for the next drop, it might go lower than I predicted....

So much for stabilized market....What a plunge at the end of today's session! This may be the start of a HUGE drop.....You've been warned.

Valuist
08-25-2015, 05:39 PM
So much for stabilized market....What a plunge at the end of today's session! This may be the start of a HUGE drop.....You've been warned.

Definitely agree. Even in 2000 & 2008, after several days of getting blown up, the market would have a one day big snapback rally. This market couldn't even hold ONE day! Market is very, very sick. NOT a buy on the dip opportunity. Falling knives everywhere.

Hoofless_Wonder
08-26-2015, 06:22 AM
The S&P futures (/ES) are still behaving wildly. Since the close on Tuesday and coming out of lockup, the range of trading has been from a low of 1850.50 to a high of 1909!! Wow. :eek:

Futures currently up +26 at 1899, and will probably be 10 points up or down by the time I get this post entered.

I don't think there are too many retail traders in the mix right now - this has to be mostly the HFTs pushing things around. I've made a few scalps since recovering from going long Sunday night, but this is incredibly nerve racking. I don't think Monday's flash crash is getting the coverage it warrants - the markets right now are very sick.