Let's give out general tips for claiming races

[letswastemoney]

Claiming races are difficult because horses have less consistent patterns. The optional claiming races are a little better. But for a regular 10k to 30k claimer at a track like Belmont or Santa Anita, what are your general angles?

I'll start...When a horse is consistently claimed, it's usually a good sign if only because it means the horse is probably healthy. When a horse is claimed 3 times in a row and moved up in class, not only is the horse healthy but it's a display of confidence too

[EMD4ME]

I don't like trainer handicapping, as most claiming races are.

They are my weakness, I hate them and I just try to get past them in pick 4's and pick 5's.

At NYRA the board needs to be watched with a fine tooth comb.

At AQU in November, bet anything Rudy and DJ have on the track.

I find that figs, trip handicapping, bias notes aren't as vital in claiming races. It's all about who feels best today and who's got the juice today.

[EMD4ME]

However, here's one specific angle.

First time for a tag. It is vital for to me to check trainer stats (good or bad) with this angle.

[johnhannibalsmith]

In today's racing in particular I don't even consider a drop in claiming price off the claim (or previous recent claiming price) to mean a thing at most tracks unless and until and even then only maybe I've made sure that 60% of the pot isn't less than the difference between the two prices. Everyone (that wins) seems to be looking for the easiest way to get a picture at the "get out" level - and will pound pavement to find it.

[badcompany]

As said, it's the inconsistency which makes most claiming races bad plays.

You need clear, concise reasons to make bets, not guesses on which horse is gonna show up that day.

[Robert Goren]

As said, it's the inconsistency which makes most claiming races bad plays.

You need clear, concise reasons to make bets, not guesses on which horse is gonna show up that day.Inconsistency is what creates prices. If like 2/5 prices, then you will love races filled with consistent runners.

[Robert Goren]

However, here's one specific angle.

First time for a tag. It is vital for to me to check trainer stats (good or bad) with this angle.
This might be the most important trainer stat outside of first after a claim. Some trainers never start a horse in a Md Claimer first out. They don't do well droppers. Other trainers get a lot of horses that sold at high prices as yearlings. Some of those horses are duds. The trainer just wants them out of his barn. Horses from these trainers generally do well. especially on their second drop. But good luck getting a price on one these horses. The money to made is on trainers who win with first time starters in maiden claimers. A lot of bettors would never touch that kind of horse. The key to betting trainers is find a trainer(s) who win races in spots that conventional wisdom says the horse has little or no chance. Find them requires a lot of work and is not for lazy bettor.

[DeltaLover]

Inconsistency is what creates prices. If like 2/5 prices, then you will love races filled with consistent runners.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Excellent posting

[letswastemoney]

Consistency in the pattern doesn't have to mean it's easy for the public to see a horse is good. For example, if a horse repeatedly runs well in dirt sprints, but some route losses muck up the form on paper, the pattern is still there.

I thought Hoppertunity made the same kind of run in his past few starts. It was just messed up by a track bias at Churchill in the Stephen Foster...although, he's too popular and the public bet him to second choice in the Gold Cup anyway.

In claiming races though, as others noted it seems more about the trainer.

[DeltaLover]

In horse betting, the objective is not to pick the winner of the race but to detect possible mistakes in the way the crowd if forming the odds of each horse. In the case of a race full of consistent horses, there is not much room for the crowd to commit such a large betting mistake to allow a more astute handicapper to beat the take out and show some profit.

[Robert Goren]

Consistency in the pattern doesn't have to mean it's easy for the public to see a horse is good. For example, if a horse repeatedly runs well in dirt sprints, but some route losses muck up the form on paper, the pattern is still there.

I thought Hoppertunity made the same kind of run in his past few starts. It was just messed up by a track bias at Churchill in the Stephen Foster...although, he's too popular and the public bet him to second choice in the Gold Cup anyway.

In claiming races though, as others noted it seems more about the trainer.If you think the public is going to fooled by a couple of recent races at the wrong distance, you have betting different tracks than I bet. The betting public is seldom that stupid. They have gotten really good at drawing lines through races that do match today's conditions.

[DeltaLover]

If you think the public is going to fooled by a couple of recent races at the wrong distance, you have betting different tracks than I bet. The betting public is seldom that stupid. They have gotten really good at drawing lines through races that do match today's conditions.

Absolutely. In our days the crowd has become extremely sophisticated leaving a really tiny room for profitability. 101 handicapping is not even close to profitability and looking for easy spots based on stereotypical approaches of the past is a guarantee way to a financial ruin

[lamboguy]

don't eliminate claiming a horse that has been on the bench for periods of 6 months to a year, sometimes they come back better

[Ocala Mike]

Never bet a horse who won his last for a tag and is entered for a lower tag today.

[letswastemoney]

If you think the public is going to fooled by a couple of recent races at the wrong distance, you have betting different tracks than I bet. The betting public is seldom that stupid. They have gotten really good at drawing lines through races that do match today's conditions.It was an easy example. Another example is turf and dirt horses. I think the synthetic tracks were good for obscuring dirt form, but they are gone.

Of course, one example does not fit all. It's a matter of seeing an oversight when you see it.

Moreno's form has been dirtied up by a few scenarios that worked against his style, but his pattern is consistent. He might be attractive in the right spot next time.

[letswastemoney]

Never bet a horse who won his last for a tag and is entered for a lower tag today.Reminds me of the old rule of being suspicious whenever a stakes horse drops in for a tag.

[Robert Fischer]

Today, American Racing uses the 'Claiming System' rather than the 'Handicap System', but we refer to the process of estimating a horse's chances at a specific wager-outcome, as 'Handicapping', just the same.

...

In the Claiming System, it is necessary to understand the Class of an animal. There are many theories about class, some of which get quite fancy. The class is determined by the Level at which a horse can contend. The level at which a horse can contend is determined by ability. Key factors such as tactical speed can be 'Limiting Factors' as a horse attempts to climb the class ladder. Such horses contend against cheaper competition, but are also-rans in competitive fields. Trainer Intent is important as well. High percentage trainers tend to run horses at, or below, their class level. 'Class', in the Claiming System, is as important as 'Weight', in the Handicap System.


RF - You have to understand the ability and the limiting-factors of the horses in today's race. You have to be aware of any flaws that the horse may have. You also have to understand the intent of the trainer and whether he intends to enter his horse in the class level "at"(compete) "below"(win) or "above"(protect).

[badcompany]

Inconsistency is what creates prices. If like 2/5 prices, then you will love races filled with consistent runners.

Just because you get prices, doesn't mean you can show a positive expected value betting that type of race.

[Luckycreed]

We don't have claiming down here, so I would find it impossible because I don't understand the culture of it,One thing I guess is there is plenty of it so if you are number crunching you will have big samples to work with.Are they really harder to play? is the average sp for a winner any longer than racing further up the food chain?

If it follows the pattern of restricted class racing in Australia then look for lightly raced horses and put a big emphasis on early speed.If a horse has had twenty(or even ten really) starts and it is still hanging around with mediocrity say no more and on turf down here the lower the quality of the racing the more it tends to be leader dominated.But claiming is probably a world of it's own so none of the above may be relevant.Boy if you did have the key to it life would be fun because there is so much of it.

[magwell]

As said, it's the inconsistency which makes most claiming races bad plays.

You need clear, concise reasons to make bets, not guesses on which horse is gonna show up that day.Agree 100 % with this :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[LottaKash]

As said, it's the inconsistency which makes most claiming races bad plays.

You need clear, concise reasons to make bets, not guesses on which horse is gonna show up that day.

I suspect that there are people who do quite well at Claimers, but I am not one of them...

When I decided to "almost" totally eliminate Claiming Races from my handicapping consideration, it was the best thing that ever happened to my confidence in playing this game and my bankroll...

Still, I have a few claiming angles that I will glance for, and one IS, an old favorite: "A horse that was claimed by a Trainer for Himself"...

[PressThePace]

In horse betting, the objective is not to pick the winner of the race but to detect possible mistakes in the way the crowd if forming the odds of each horse. In the case of a race full of consistent horses, there is not much room for the crowd to commit such a large betting mistake to allow a more astute handicapper to beat the take out and show some profit.

To me, this is THE most important concept required to profit consistently at this game. When you can develop some consistency, then it comes down to really basic handicapping.

[whodoyoulike]

We don't have claiming down here, so I would find it impossible because I don't understand the culture of it,One thing I guess is there is plenty of it so if you are number crunching you will have big samples to work with.Are they really harder to play?


I think they are but, if you're able to figure them out they're the bread and butter of a lot of mediocre trainers. Btw, I like your different perspective on things.

is the average sp for a winner any longer than racing further up the food chain?

What is sp?

And, there are many different variations of claiming races which makes them very difficult. Usually, the claimers are an inferior horse compared to hcp or stk horses.

If it follows the pattern of restricted class racing in Australia then look for lightly raced horses and put a big emphasis on early speed.If a horse has had twenty(or even ten really) starts and it is still hanging around with mediocrity say no more and on turf down here the lower the quality of the racing the more it tends to be leader dominated.But claiming is probably a world of it's own so none of the above may be relevant.Boy if you did have the key to it life would be fun because there is so much of it.


This leader dominated viewpoint is something I'm going to try and pay more attention. Finding the key is what everyone attempts.

[CosmicWon]

Totally agree on the "Claiming horse owned by his trainer" point--Steve Asmussen often runs his own claimers and I will pay more attention when I see him reach in for one (especially if it was claimed off a low % barn) and it's jumped in class today or he straight protects it in a starter ALW. He's very adroit at placing all his clients' horses and that shrewdness shows when he enters one for himself or his family.

Sometimes you'll see TAP run one under JJ Pletcher's name and that's usually sign that original owners have washed their hands of the horse and they're desperate to move it along the supply chain. I'm not a fan of betting Pletcher in claimers but also cant deny he gets even the uninterested ones like Vinceramos to wake up on the class relief. Pick your battles with TAP's claiming stock.

Peter Denk from Thoroughbred Times gave me maybe the BEST advice I've heard on betting MCLs: never bet a horse debuting for less than its purchase price. I make that a rule for the most part now in my handicapping and it's saved me from numerous bad plays on overbet but clearly untalented FTS.

[Tom]

Know your track.
Belmont claimers are pretty much all two classes, aren't they? Low and lower?

I don't see any class in any of the claimers, other than maybe the bottom levels. NW2 or 3 moving open and do well, and droppers from the top to low prices do not do well. Just observation, I really do not bother looking at very many NYRA races on dirt. But the race I have looked at, I just shake my head and move to another track.

I stick to allowance or stakes on turf if I play anything in NY.
California seems to be the place to play claimer.

[ultracapper]

California is the place to play claimers. The claiming races in SoCal are as close to handicappable as any claiming race can be. If horses can no longer compete at the lowest levels, trainers will move those horses to Arizona or NoCal, or sometimes even Washington. Many go to Canterbury. The horses that make so many of the very lowest claiming races at a majority of the tracks around the country unplayable generally get shuffled out of SoCal sooner or later. Even the $8K claimers and the $12.5K(N2L) can be worked out in SoCal as often as not.

[alf1380]

Some simple things...

- You should avoid the lowest levels, unless the race is just irresistible (lone speed, massive overlay, etc..)

- Horses that "freak out" while breaking their maiden in a MCL, and get moved up to Allowance ranks (protected), are usually Live. The ones that get moved "up" to the highest claiming level, are placed there cynically. Toss.

- In races shorter than 6 1/2 furlongs, and at the levels below the highest OPCL, you are going to be handicapping for speed and those that can press the lead. You will be working with the 1/4 and 1/2 mile personal splits to find "who" can clear and lead them for home, or who sits the perfect pressing trip. Understand how the different tracks "play".

- Some reputable trainers have large barns and regularly risk horses "unnecessarily" at the same level, when they are consistent money makers. Recognize these horses. They are your very consistent friend for exotic plays. When you spot them dropping...run the other way at a very fast pace.

- "Vet Scratch" and a drop in class, no matter how good the horse was/has been..is an auto toss.

[raybo]

My 2 cents worth, regarding claimers.

Disregarding lightly raced claimers and maiden claimers, current condition (form) is the trick/key. Anybody can analyze potential capabilities, but with the cheaper experienced stock, current physical condition is key to these horses realizing those capabilities. If you can do a good job of determining that, on most of the better ones in the field, there is a huge amount of money to be made. These lower level horses hold their form a far shorter period of time than the higher levels, so after a peak performance, unless there is a drop in class or they happen to find a very weak field, one can almost guarantee a lesser performance from them. Trainer intent, as has been tossed around in this thread, is very important also, as many of these horses are merely pawns to be used for cash flow, and not necessarily via purses. The term "think like a trainer" could not be more important than in these types of races.

One thing, from my experience playing claimers, the rise in class move, with a sub-par looking horse, which some think is an indication that the trainer thinks the horse is going to wake up, is more often than not a prep for a future class drop, a workout race that will look poor and enable a better performance at a lower level, sometimes without losing the horse to a claim and with decent odds to boot.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I look for buybacks - trainers/owners who had their horse claimed in a previous race and then have bought them back later at an equal or higher level.

Side note: Arromanches was a fun claimer to watch.

[Robert Goren]

I hate to see a bullet WO since a horse's last race combined with a drop in claiming price. I don't like in horses that are for the time for tag. Only Pletcher seems to be the exception for the first time for a tag horses.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Another I look for is a 2nd start dropdown coming straight off a layoff with equipment change and stretching out plus rider upgrade.

Example: today @ Tampa Bay, Race 2 :4: Roguery

Tampa Bay Race 2 PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=TAM&race=2&param1=338520&param2=780&param3=1950)

[whodoyoulike]

My 2 cents worth, regarding claimers...

One thing, from my experience playing claimers, the rise in class move, with a sub-par looking horse, which some think is an indication that the trainer thinks the horse is going to wake up, is more often than not a prep for a future class drop, a workout race that will look poor and enable a better performance at a lower level, sometimes without losing the horse to a claim and with decent odds to boot.

This is just my opinion regarding claimers, I don't think any horse running for a claim is really worth the claiming price. It would take special circumstances where the owner and/or trainer would see a benefit if they properly placed their horse for a claiming price.

[biggestal99]

Some simple things...



- Horses that "freak out" while breaking their maiden in a MCL, and get moved up to Allowance ranks (protected), are usually Live. The ones that get moved "up" to the highest claiming level, are placed there cynically. Toss.

.

Once had an unfashionably bred 2 year old, bought privately for 20k unraced in the spring,, as the seller said he might look like much but he's pretty fast.

Our trainer said we'll start him out for 25k maiden claims, man i nervous all day atthe track
Thinking someones gonna take him i was sure of it, trainer laughed, works were all slow and he wasnt well bred, no way would anyone take, and he was right, horse breaks 5 lengths slow out 0f thegate, starts a huge rally in the middle of the stretch and finishes 3rd, trainer comes back and says hes worth more than 25k, next race 2weeks later he routs mc50k by 11 at9-2, Wire to wire, next out a stakes race, its on the turf and our trainer hopes it comes off, it doesn.t but he gets 3rd. So yeah he was definely live at 5-1, just didn.t work out for the stakes win.

Allan

[no breathalyzer]

"Vet Scratch" and a drop in class, no matter how good the horse was/has been..is an auto toss.


hope when aint been playing nyra tracks over the last 6 months

[JohnGalt1]

After turf races, I like betting claimers because they run more often and I can judge them from recent races. Form is something many handicappers, even me sometimes, unfortunately, downplay its significance.

In many allowance and stakes races most or all are coming off lay offs due to fewer races for their classes, thus leaving these races a guessing game for me as to how they will run today.

[ILovetheInner]

I look for buybacks - trainers/owners who had their horse claimed in a previous race and then have bought them back later at an equal or higher level.

Side note: Arromanches was a fun claimer to watch.

I love claim backs. Like them even better if the same trainer talked a different owner into it this time. Don't know why, but that has been a strong angle for me.

I love claimers to bits. I do think you are betting the trainers somewhat. Nothing wrong with that. I should mention Gary Sciacca in my will for all he has done for me through the years, lol! I've always liked him and he confuses the public on paper. I've been following him long enough to be able to decipher it fairly well. Several trainers at NYRA I have been able to synch well with. They aren't the obvious ones, but if I start to notice several long shots come home from a trainer with low stats, I try to study them and figure it out. I have several in my pocket right now and know certain patterns are worth my investment. Taking meticulous notes helps. It can be a boon for those willing to do obsessive homework.

[pondman]

I'll spot play if the right maiden runner shows up in the right race. Other than that it's all numbers, and if you have the right numbers for the right surface and distance, you'll do okay.